Axis of Bob

You can't make that point with anything based on total clearances (like an average) because it doesn't adjust for the number of stoppages that a team participates in each game. It needs to be a differential in order to adjust for that. In fact, one of the most interesting stats in all of this is ..... .... Melbourne were the best team in the league at preventing opposition clearances. Teams had only 26.9 clearances against us last year, comfortably better than any other team. Probably better would be to work out the probability of each team winning a clearance. We were +6% chance of winning a clearance (6th best), with Port being best on +16% and Adelaide worst being -20%. Interestingly Richmond were 16th with a -12% probability.

And the point I'm making is that there has been very little difference between our strong clearance numbers in 2018 and our strong clearance numbers in 2020, just the number of stoppages that we have been involved in when compared with the rest of the competition. Slipping for 4th overall to 6th overall is barely significant (especially since we were 3rd in between), as it still says we are a top level clearance team. Of the top 7 clearance teams (differential) last year, 4 of them had a negative hitout differential. We were one of those three teams (along with West Coast and Gold Coast) that had both a positive clearance and hitout differential. Based on the stats, we are a very effective clearance team and its is a strength of ours. People think about hitouts like it's 1975, where a dominant tap ruck could feed a midfield. But 50 years ago (even 20 years ago) there was a lot of space around the stoppages so a tap ruck could create more advantage. Nowadays it's far more about the midfielders whilst the ruck is more dominant for what else he can do (ie, mark, tackle, win contested footy). They need to not be terrible in the ruck, but serviceable seems to be just as effective as excellent. The correlation between hitouts and clearances is very weak across the competition, so I don't know whether you can make an argument us being 3rd for hitouts and 6th for clearances represents an issue.

In 2020 we were 6th in clearance differential. 3rd in 2019 and 4th in 2018. We have been comfortably better than our opponents for the past 3 years. So we have been consistently good at clearances. The total clearance statistics only reflect that our games have involved fewer stoppages in the past two seasons, not that we have been poor at them.

Maclure was a good footballer in his day, which was last in 1986 .... 35 years ago! However I'm not necessarily sure that he's the one to be talking about off-field culture either, given his reputation during his playing days. The reason he has the nickname 'Sellars' is because his messy behaviour when drinking reminded them of Peter Sellars. Is this the guy who you want to be lectured to about culture?!?! Did he give 100% of himself? Reports are mixed. As for listening to him rather than bagging him, the reason I'm bagging him out is because I have listened to him! I'm bagging him out on the basis of what he says. And what he says is terrible.

We have been bad for different reasons at different times. Combining them is lazy. Maclure is beyond lazy, intellectually. He's just there to make the viewer feel better about their own knowledge, although not necessarily for the same reasons.

As I said, it's low-analysis populism. It resonates with those who don't like to think too hard, like Maclure.

He's just speaking in generalities that can't ever be proven or disproven. It's extremely lazy. His evidence of poor culture is senior players not being dropped (which I'm sure Tom McDonald disagrees with). The only reason he is still kept around in the footy media is because he has name recognition and because his low analysis populism appeals to a certain subset of the population who relate to what he says. It's easy to come up with his comments, which I'll do for any team that lost this weekend: Bad culture They're soft and don't go hard enough at the contest Lazy and don't work hard enough Bad gameplan Players look lost Players don't want to win enough Coach is out of ideas and has no plan B Not fit enough Players unmotivated or 'not switched on' It's completely unprovable, but just panders to many supporters' existing feelings. It's like reading your horoscope. If you put generalities out there without any evidence (or knowledge) then people will just insert their own preconceptions into it. If you want to see how this sort of thinking works, just check out this forum after a loss.

I think clicking on any link that follows this sentence is a pretty good diagnostic test for internet addiction.

Garry Lyon is the worst commentator out there. An impossibly self-important lightweight. I often wonder if he lives in constant fear that everyone's going to realise that he doesn't know what he's talking about anymore, although I suspect that that he probably doesn't have the self-awareness for that.

Our forward line, for all the missing players, was actually fine yesterday. We played a forward line of (mostly) TMac, Jackson, Fritsch, Chandler, ANB and Spargo, and we managed to have 13 marks inside 50 from only 41 entries. As a yardstick, the Dogs also had 13 marks inside 50 from 64 entries. From 41 entries we kicked 10 goals (24%), whilst the Dogs kicked 15 from 64 (23%) despite having many of those extra entries from stoppage clearances, which are far more dangerous. Our structures held up pretty well and, despite what has been said here, our kick ins were very dangerous and a real weapon. Having two players who can cover territory quickly, along with 2 ruckmen, means that our direct kickouts are going to be very dangerous. That, in turn, will force teams to throw numbers long and straight, which will open up gaps later on. They kicked 6 goals to 1 in the 3rd quarter where, from memory, I think we only won one clearance for the quarter. That isn't a typical occurrence for us since contested ball and clearances are usually strengths for us, but with 3 of our 4 best contested midfielders being out we were exposed. That is a one off, so we should be looking past that and thinking how we fared assuming we win 50/50 contested ball and clearances, rather than losing them 113-164 and 24-48.

Without our best contested midfielders, we were dominated in the clearances and contested footy. That's pretty much the tale of the game right there. Alex Neal-Bullen was our leading clearance winner, and he was essentially playing as a defensive half forward. At one point our centre bounce setup was Jackson, AVB, ANB and Sparrow. It's pretty hard to judge how went, TBH, because we were beaten around the ball by so much. Not ideal but not particularly concerning.

I believe they were 2015 and 2016 whilst playing for Casey in the VFL. Certainly at AFL level he hasn't. I think ANB is a better player than most think he is .... but Dr D is clearly wrong about him (among others). His value is as a hard running defensive forward, not as a midfielder because he isn't big enough, quick enough, classy enough or good enough. If he could solve 2 or 3 of those problems then he can play midfield. But full credit to him for pushing past all those failings and getting a satisfactory AFL career almost entirely from hard running and a first class attitude. He should be lauded for what he has been able to do.

It's an interesting play because it's all set up for Cotchin to be the target for an aggressive Nankervis tap (against Jackson, not Gawn). Cotchin goes for the outside space and runs forward, but Harmes keeps body contact with Cotchin and maintains position on the defensive side, which blows the play up. After that it's just Oliver winning a one on one and Dusty finding defence a bit too difficult. But, in short, the set play is broken up by Harmes' initial bodywork on Cotchin, allowing our best two players to win the footy. It's certainly a much better structure (and was all game) than we've seen the last year or two. Good clip, TPF39.

Of course they don't. It's a 3/4 practice match between the 30-40 players on AFL lists and whatever VFL players they could cobble together to fill out the numbers, being umpired by some assistant coaches and volunteers doing the goal and boundary umpiring. Nobody cares. I'm thankful that we can get a stream at all. I'm happy to listen to the commentary if they interview guys like Balme, who gave some interesting thoughts on the game and even how he thought we played.

Don't read the gameday thread. I accidentally did after a long offseason but immediately regretted it. It's an awful place purely designed for people to let off steam whilst not flooding the main board. You could almost call it Demonland 'quarantine'.

Good hit out. We looked pretty solid, structurally. Up forward, McDonald and Jackson contested pretty well against a really good defensive intercepting team. Plus we were solid in the air in defence, with Lever and May looking threatening in the air. Obviously we're trading some speed (Hunt, Rivers) in defence for defensive solidity, but given the pace of the game that seemed to be a risk worth taking at the moment. Up forward, having Chandler just made us look better. His speed and finishing gives a nice balance to our small forwards, with Spargo being clever and industrious and Kossie being a bit more of a high end talent. The new manning the mark rule played pretty well, as it encouraged teams to take risks and we got more even contests inside 50. It also looks like it will provide more opportunities to our hard running tall and medium forwards.

The Gameday thread is just as bad preseason.

That vision was just a player that forgot the rule. They moved sideways on the mark like they used to, but it's illegal now. If they truly thought that the player had played on then they would have run forward at the kicker rather than sideways behind the mark. There will be issues where players simply forget like this, because they are not used to the same rule. This footage doesn't mean that the rule works/doesn't work, just that some players are going to forget ... especially whilst it's being introduced.

Everyone here has condemned this before they have even seen it. I put it in the category of 'most people hate change'. There will be some implementation issues (and dire headlines capitalising on the fear of change), as there always are, but those will inevitably fade as it becomes normalised. I don't mind the rule at all. It'll annoy people (because change = scary and bad) but it will encourage less crowded defensive zones because it will force a defence to commit more players to defending short kicks. Short kicks (and maintaining possession) will now be far more valuable since they are a more attacking option now. A short kick means that there is space to attack, or finding overlap runners from behind who have space to kick. In previous seasons defenses encouraged the opposition to take a short kick because it would slow the play down and left only two attacking options: a chip sideways, or a bomb down the line. The best football happens when teams link up with handball and run the ball through a defence. It's exciting and creates goals (and turnovers too). The current 'bomb down the line' game doesn't encourage that at all because it's too easy to block up space around the ball. This at least encourages space and movement around the ball, which should encourage riskier attacking play. It isn't the high scoring we're trying to encourage, it's the risk taking. Taking risks is what generates excitement, and this encourages more risk taking because they're more likely to come off.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/18/we-were-told-go-your-hardest-examining-racism-at-collingwood-heres-what-we-found This is written by the report's authors. It gives a bit more background into their report and the thrust of it.

I actually found it to be a pretty weak article. It was trying too hard to make it a big thing but it was just regurgitating the same thing different ways ..... there's less funding across the game so there are fewer resources. It spent the first half just saying all the changes were bad, without actually outlining the changes. Once we got to them, the changes were pretty hard to identify. It's an incredibly difficult article to follow, and really poorly written. Essentially, from what I can gather, the headings reflect are: - Limited preseason: Preseason doesn't run in Jan because there is a full time coach who now coaches women and men (?). This is even though many clubs didn't have a full time coach last year anyway. It's extremely poorly written, so it's pretty hard to follow. The main concern seemed to be that SA had a camp for their top juniors but Victoria hasn't had one yet. - Growing the female game: Exactly the same as the first heading but, inexplicably, under a new heading. - The rich get richer: APS/AGS students play more football, which means they are exposed more than those who don't because recruiters will watch those games in preference to other local games. - Losing the battle of the codes: Making an unlinked claim that a shorter preseason will mean that kids will choose cricket over footy. Makes a passing comment that about T20, which is clearly the reason since young athletes can now make a living in state cricket that was previously unavailable to them. - No margin for mistakes: Essentially that the season is shorter, but also slipped in that there's an under 19 championship which gets no explanation or further reference when it seems like a major part of the equation. - Limited club resources: Turns out there's a pandemic that has meant that sports revenues are down, so there are fewer resources. Some clubs have reduced recruiting expenses so will struggle to see as much footy as in previous years. Yep, and ....? - Where to next: Supposition based upon not much at all. I really wanted to know more about what's happening this year, but the article is sooooooooo bad that it made it almost impossible to follow. I suspect that this is likely because they really don't have much to write on except for a few anecdotes and a few recruiters moaning about their jobs being harder this year based on reduced resourcing. Plus there are already a range of arguments about making 16/17 years do 4 month long preseasons in year 11 and 12. I am none the wiser at the moment. I'm more just annoyed at the authors ..... who are ...... Tom Morris (ahhhh, ok) and Matt Balmer.

Yep. I find the most telling aspect of this is that there's no unifying reason why people decided they were booing Goodes. You would ask 5 people and get 5 different reasons: 'he pointed out the racists girl', 'he did a dance', 'he didn't deserve Australian of the year', 'he faked for free kicks', 'he's a dirty player (after he slid into a pack)', 'he's just an anchor' .... etc. It was around people being told an uncomfortable truth when he was Australian of the Year. Before that there was almost no talk about any football related misgivings but rather pretty widespread acknowledgment as a respected community leader. People will try to justify it to themselves, and indeed probably convince themselves of it. But the origins of the booing were pretty clearly related to his uncomfortable truths during his time as Australian of the Year.

How do you think their sales of sneakers in the US would go if the story was that they supported a racist football club in Australia? Especially after their advertising around Colin Kaepernick last year. Anti racism is part of Nike's brand. Collingwood sponsorship is chump change compared to the money they put into their brand.

He was excellent at turning around Collingwood and getting them to the top, but terrible when they were already at the top. The two roles need different skills and Eddie showed that he's a far better salesman than he is a manager, cc as shown by his time at Nine. Unfortunately he was the last one to realise it

Goals from number 1 ruckmen: English 8, McInerney 6, Goldstein 6, Naitanui 5, Darcy 5, Grundy 3, Sinclair 3, Lycett 2, Soldo 2, Gawn 1, Witts 0, O'Brien 0, Pittonet 0. Basically, no ruckman really kicks goals. The way they get goals is through mobility or when rucking int he forward line. The problem is that most ruckmen aren't quick enough to get to the position to do damage against a smaller opponent, so the only plays where they can get forward are in slow plays with the defence camped out in numbers inside 50. The odds of marking this kick are really, really, low. You're much better off camping Gawn outside 50 ready to intercept the defensive kick and give yourself another opportunity to score. The other problem with Gawn forward is that he offers zero defensive pressure inside 50, due to his size and mobility. This allows players to break a line and get the ball past our defensive zone. This may be different with Jackson, who is far more mobile. He has the ability to link up and out run his opponent into the forward line before the numbers get there. This is like what happens with English for the Dogs. Gawn may play forward for the occasional burst to mix things up but I'd be surprised if it's any more than that.