Axis of Bob

I know it's a Melbourne forum but Fritsch at 16 is clearly the biggest outlier on that list.

Disposal efficiency has never been a useful statistic because it doesn't measure what you think it measures. It doesn't measure how well you kick and handball, it measures how well you can maintain possession of the ball. I haven't looked at the rankings but I'd be shocked if there any correlation between DE and performance. Teams like Geelong that chip the ball around to maintain possession will be high in DE because they don't take risks with the ball. We will be very low ranked because we play very fast paced, aggressive and direct football with numbers behind the ball. It has absolutely no relevance to how well a team kicks the footy.

In the preliminary final Geelong's 2nd youngest player was Gryan Miers, who was 22 years old. We had 8 players in that game younger than Miers, whilst Geelong had 1 (Max Holmes). Our second oldest player in that game was Max Gawn, who was 29 years old. Geelong had 11 players older than Gawn, whilst we had 1 (Hibberd). They're probably right to try to keep wringing whatever performance they can out of this group because, really, what's the alternative? They have 11 players under 22 on their list and they have combined for 42 games in total .... of which 29 have been played by Jordan Clark who is leaving. It's pretty dire.

Given that these were the only two occasions in the last 20 years, the odds are about 10%. Not high enough to worry about a hypothetical future first round pick being 8 spots lower.

Richmond didn't trade picks for either of them. We're doing what Richmond didn't do. The counter argument is much more compelling, which is that Richmond should have brought forward their first round picks from 2021 (when they missed the finals an got best value .... currently pick 7) through to 2017 when they won the flag (pick 18). By continually bringing picks forward during the flag window, you are betting that a player drafted at pick 18ish in 2017 would have more impact on Richmond winning flags than pick 7 in 2021, since that the difference in the trades. There are several players drafted at around pick 20 in 2017 that could have seriously helped Richmond win flags, like Tim Kelly, Liam Ryan, Noah Balta, Oscar Allen, Brandon Starcevich and Jack Higgins. The play they draft this year, albeit with pick 7, will have far, far less impact. I would argue that pick 17 in the first year of you premiership window is far more likely to impact your ability to win flags than pick 7 in the year after your premiership window closes. The value of a good kid contributing to a flag diminishes ever year closer you are to the end of your flag window.

If we miss finals next year, then our future pick will also be worth more if we trade it forward. Also, each year further into our flag window makes the pick less and less valuable because the player we select will have less and less chance to impact on our ability to win a flag. Look at Jamarra Ugle-Hagan this year .... how much impact does he have on the Dogs winning a flag? We're better off getting a good player (pick 17) earlier than a slightly better (pick 10) player a year later. That player will be playing his first year in 2023 and probably not make any real AFL impact until 2024-5. We are in a situation where we need to bring the draft value forward because we want our draft assets to impact on our team whilst we are still a top team competing for flags.

I think that the analysis looks at the centre bounce like it's a basketball play. One of the fundamental differences being the ease of winning possession and maintaining possession. He looks at ruck taps as being the way of gaining clean possession (like a basketball play), when that rarely has a strong impact when compared with directing the play into general areas where you can have a structural (or personnel) advantage. Melbourne's dominance of scoring from stoppages were for a few reasons: 1- Being able to maintain dominance at the defensive side of the stoppage. We always maintained the most defensive player at the stoppage. Each time the Dogs won the ball they had to shift the ball around our mids, go sideways or kick forward quickly. These resulted in their clearances being less effective. But that isn't the only aspect of defending. Our other mids used defending the stoppage as the basis for attacking. There were several occasions where the Dogs would cheat a bit on the contest and then be caught out if they lost. We didn't do this, but rather played the defensive side of opponents, forcing them to go through multiple layers to get a clean takeaway. The reason why some of those big contests were lost by the Dogs late in the 3rd wasn't because of Liberatore as the sweeper, it was because the big guns like Bontempelli overcommitted to winning the ball, or assuming they'd win it, and got caught in positions where they could no longer defend. We maintained the ability to defend, even when we lost the clearance. 2- Being able to transition decisively from the contested ball phase into offense. The same idea, but because we were holding more defensive positions, our mids could react more quickly to winning the contests because they knew that they had defensive cover if things got messy. It's very much our 'offense is generate from being the best defence' mentality. Having a dedicated defensive minded midfielder in the centre allows you to attack when you win it. In other words, we were quicker at turning contested ball into offensive running than the Dogs were at turning it into defensive running. It didn't necessarily result in us winning more (or fewer) clearances but it did mean that our next offensive possessions were far more decisive than the Dogs'. 3- Rucks being able to follow up post bounce. This was really big. The taps are largely useless, except for getting the ball into general areas where you are dominant. Sometimes a Hollywood tap comes off, but these are rare (although the impact of a truly great set play can be big, albeit it a bit of a party trick). What Gawn and Jackson did so much better was to be much better on the ground than Martin and English, especially since a lot of teams don't appear to really plan to defend it. Jackson's work here late in the third was special. Gawn and Jackson were responsible for a few occasions getting forward of the stoppage whilst their opponents stood like statues in the centre. By competing for the ball inside they allow us to get a numerical advantage outside the contest (which is very dangerous) and by spreading from the stoppage whilst others compete it also provides us with an advantage outside. The youtube guy missed this completely (he even thought Jackson got forward of the stoppage by stumbling!) but it's a really important part of our centre advantage. 4- Being able to dominate the outside of the stoppage. This was where the stoppage was won an lost. When the Dogs had their run on in the 2nd it was through Bontempelli and Macrae wheeling out onto their left side whilst carrying the ball outside the stoppage. That was where they were dangerous, not because they won the ball on the inside but because they were able to turn that into dominance on the outside. In the 3rd it was the other way around. Oliver was able to force Bontempelli on the inside of the stoppage where he was less damaging competing with multiple opponents, and if we won it then we had the outside dominance and moved the ball really quickly. We were able to get this dominance through Petracca's power and discipline, Oliver and Viney pushing opponents into the stoppage, and Gawn/Jackson being able to spread better than their opponents. The key to winning the stoppage battle isn't being able to win possession .... any team is able to win their fair share of stoppage possession, but rather it's ability to turn those stoppage wins into something more useful and dangerous than your opponents.

I appreciate the effort that he went to in creating the video and he clearly wants to know more about how these happen. Enough to make a 50 minute video on the centre bounces for a game only twice that length. However I think he generally misses the most important parts of the centre clearance. He places an undue importance on getting front position. The important part is that front position is only situationally important and often it can be quite a detriment, which the Dogs succumbed to. The inside space is only important to own if there is actually space there (ie, between the player and the ball) and if there isn't space there then you are just getting lost in the mess. The reason why Melbourne were so successful is because they owned the outside space more often, so the clearance wins resulted in damaging entries rather than shallow scraps out of congestion. I'll do a bit more at some point on some important clearances from the game but it's important to note that these weren't won from owning the inside, they were actually won from owning the outside. This resulted in the Dogs struggling to get value from their wins and, conversely, allowed the Melbourne wins to be genuine scoring threats.

If we've got enough money to chase Adam Cerra then I don't think we're in any particular trouble.

I love the thought that we just win flags for the list management gains! 😁

Well said AM.

Looking back at the comment, it may have been ambiguous. But no, he's a team first player. That's why he has always outperformed supporter expectations at the Best and Fairest, and it's why he has been such an influential player in a premiership winning side.

Powerful players that win contests are finals players. Powerful players that win contests and play team first football win premierships.

Just watch the replay (again) now, and Daisy is an absolute godsend as a commentator. She gives insight into the game that is so far above that of her contemporaries, and that makes the watching it on TV infinitely better.

I'd certainly be getting my step count up throwing that on as a podcast when I go for a walk!

The kick from Bowey there was unbelievable. The vision and decision making to be able to create that opportunity with that heavily congested forward line was first class.

I can't believe they're only doing one replay on Fox tonight! What am I supposed to do now?!?

❤️

Great to hear from you. And still 35 years young ! 😁

If you look at the best defenders you will generally see a list of the best intercept defenders, so there is a bias there too. Look at the AA team: May, Lever, Aliir, Stewart, Rich and Dale. Of those, only May could play directly on the opponent's best or second best defender (tall or small). The remaining 5 would play on the opposition's weakest or second weakest forward. All the awards have flaws, even the AA which specifically selects 6 defenders. The last true defender selected in the AA team was Talia in 2016.

Both teams are right to feel confident because they're a chance. It's a Grand Final, so you should feel confident .... it's just one game. They'll be playing against a completely different type of team to any they've played in the finals so far. They've smashed Essendon and Port in contested possession and were +10 against Brisbane, but we are by far the number 1 contested team team in the league (+17.9 pg .... 2nd best was Geelong's +9.9). Our wins were against the 2nd and 3rd best contested teams and we beat them +30 and +22 in our finals. The Dogs will need to find a way to use their biggest strength (winning contested possession) against the best contested team in the league, and then find a way to negate our biggest strength (defence and intercepts). If they somehow nullify our intercept game then they just have to overcome all of the other reasons that we should win. They are a good team, but they will likely need something pretty special to happen to beat us. That's why we're the favourites.

King is looking at the Schache/Aliir thing as being what won them the game. It wasn't .... it was simply a sideshow. The Bulldogs won the first quarter with +22 contested possessions and that was the whole game done. They won based on contested possession, not by negating Port's intercept game. There were one or two times that worked for them, but Aliir still had 11 intercept possessions because Schache isn't a very good player. The difference is that, whilst Port have an excellent interceptor (as do we), we have many excellent interceptors and a midfield whose key strength is defensive pressure. If they want to push forwards to defend against Lever, then we'll just have the AA Full Back do the intercepting (who is arguably an even better player), Petty or even the AA ruck to do the job instead. Plus the ball is unlikely to come in so easily because Port were so woeful in the midfield that Jakovich and McIntosh couldn't have saved them. That simply hasn't happened against us, and I'd bet against it magically starting next week. David King knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. He can be given as many stats as possible but he simply doesn't have the wherewithal to use them properly. The Port game was one team that was ready to play a high paced, contested game of football versus another team that looked genuinely afraid. The rest of it was just window dressing. We had to win against Geelong. We were much better than them, so we won comfortably, but they were still fighting. Port were terrible. Most of the competition would have beaten them that night because they had no fight in them. The Dogs threw one punch early and Port dropped straight to the canvas, hoping that the count came quickly.

The culture of this team is based on his work ethic and integrity. In the early part of the decade, he was given the leadership of the club despite not being a natural or outspoken leader. But when this new group of players came into the club it was his example that demonstrated to everyone that this is how you train, this is how you prepare and this is how you make yourself into a good AFL footballer. The others were moved on from the club and Nathan Jones, with his example of who they should all try to be, was forced into the middle of club. The integrity of him as a person, and the integrity of his work ethic, is an example that all of this generation of players will have with them through their careers. A super player in his own right but his character still lives through the club through his actions over his career. I can't say how much I thank him for staying with us and help us become the club we are now. He'll always have a special place the the MFC and any future success we have will be built on the foundations that he laid down with sweat and integrity. Thank you Chunk. Not just for the last 15 years but also for everything that hasn't happened yet. Champion.

Playing with power and a willingness to defend is extremely valuable in finals, especially in our team. Look at how well Sparrow has taken to it. If you're playing in a big game, he's a player you want on your side.

The Parfitt injury was absolutely massive for them. It wouldn't have changed the result by any means, but he's about their only decent stoppage defender and we absolutely waltzed the ball out of the stoppage all night. What a great game to watch. Not often you get to celebrate a preliminary final halfway through the second quarter. It shows the difference between playing beautiful football during the season and practicing playing finals football all season. When the pressure went up we were unflustered. We knew what to do.