xman97

Yeh mate 100%, I know what you mean. I definately would rather a more imposing physical key forward, don’t get me wrong. I do see heaps of upside though and his footy IQ is high already. Like you, I also wouldn’t mind us picking another key forward next year. At this stage, it looks like only 2 or 3 key forwards in the 1st round, so it’s not a given that we can land one of them. I just hope we draft one soon as I can see a Collingwood situation of the past few years happening where they didn’t invest in a key forward early in a draft so they’ve been stuck with B graders as key forwards for years! It’s a good example of how hard it is sometimes to trade for a gun key forward. They’re the biggest club in the country also! Lets trust JT and his crew to make the right call as they’ve watched Jefferson a lot more than we have.

He could be a bust, you're right. Picking a player at 14 in any year has a risk at that. Pick 14 over the history has a 90 average games played compared to, lets say a pick 5, that has 125 average games. In the same area of the draft we have Hewitt who has behavior issues and might not get a game considering our midfield depth, and he might go home in 2 years. We have Ed Allan who might not get a game either and go home to WA. We might pick Cowen which looks like a awesome Hibbo replacement. He might go to the new Tassie team in 2 or 3 years time. There's a lot of hypotheticals. But one things for sure, is that the people who watch every under 18 game, say that he has enormous upside, scoreboard impact and a ridiculously good reading of the ball in flight to dominate aerially. They also point out his lack of strength and physicality but that can hopefully be easily ticked off in time, which is why he's rated a mid to late 1st round pick rather than Cadman who's rated top 3. While we're contending, we ain't getting a top 3 pick. That's why equalisation is in place, so a team like us doesn't get a Cadman. Jefferson isn't perfect, but no one at pick 14 will be.

You make very good points. I don’t think West Coast did so well with the list size last year though 😂

There was something I heard that it's going back to normal, but as there's no official word yet, it makes it very frustrating and I'm now starting to think that clubs can go to max allowed list size as pre Covid, but the minimum can stay at the Covid years level. I'd be shocked if the list sizes don't go back to normal as the salary cap surely goes up due to the following points below. Surely you can't have the salary cap go up and the list sizes stay at Covid year levels. -Players currently having access to 28 per cent of forecast defined AFL revenue. The broadcast deal's price is $643 million per season, up on the current $473 million per season. -The Soft Cap limit will increase by an additional $500,000 in 2023 and a further $250,000 in 2024. -Total Player Payments/Average wage for the following seasons (Covid years didn't go up as planned below): 2016: $10.37m / $309,000 2017: $12.45m / $371,000 2018: $12.6m / $375,000 2019: $12.76m / $380,000 2020: $13.02m / $388,000 2021: $13.28m / $396,000 2022: $13.54m / $403,000

My view is this. Lets ask ourselves what our key forward stock will be in 2 years time without Brown and McDonald. Yes we can get one in a trade, but good ones are very hard to get and we shouldn’t bank on that. Without picking Jefferson, in 2 years time we have JVR (in his 4th year) and Schache (a back up KPF) and that’s it! Yes, we can get a Key Fwd in next years draft, but in 2 years time he’ll have only 1 year experience. JVR and and a 19 yr old won’t hold up when we’re contending. Key forwards normally take 3 to 5 years. With Jefferson it is: -JVR (in his 4th year). -Jefferson (in his 3rd year). -Schache (a back up KPF).

It's always been 3 x Cat B Rookies. It went to 2 only for the Covid years. There's been no official word yet, but all the talk is that list sizes and salary cap will be back to normal for 2023.

We can all have our opinions on whether to draft from WA again or not. It’s a given that every club will be drafting from every state over the course of time. It’s a national comp, and every recruiter and list manager has a responsiblity to get quality players and quality people through the door. If there’s more players going home these days, the only thing that will happen is if there’s 2 players they’re choosing from and they can barely split them from best available or list needs, the local boy will get picked. If there’s a clear stand out between the next 2 on their board, they’re picking the stand out regardless of where they’re from, unless this draftee has said he doesn’t want to move to Victoria. When I say ‘stand out’ or ‘barely can split them’, that’s taking into account everything (Physical attributes, mental attributes, list needs etc.)

It's always been 3 x Cat B Rookies. It went to 2 only for the Covid years. There's been no official word yet, but all the talk is that list sizes and salary cap will be back to normal for 2023. 15. Player Lists - 2017 (d) The number of Players referred to in clause 15(b) and 15(c) shall be Players included on the AFL Club’s Primary List and shall be in addition to the allowable number of Rookies, including nominated Rookies, as defined in the Rules. The maximum number of Rookies and Players on the Primary List shall be as follows: Primary List Size Category A Rookies Category B Rookies Total Rookies Maximum TOTAL 38 (Minimum) 6 3 9 (Maximum) 47 39 5 3 8 47 40 (Maximum) 4 3 7 (Minimum) 47 16. Player Lists – 2018 - 2022 (ii) The number of Players on the Club’s Category A Rookie List shall be not more than 6 provided that a Club must not have more than 44 Players on their Primary List and Category A Rookie List at any time; (iii) The number of Players on the Club’s Category B Rookie List shall be not more than 3.

You’re 100% right mate. I thought he had 1 year left for some reason.

To be honest, I think he would be on more than Weid was, as Schache signed at the end of 2019 after he scored 24 goals from 14 games as a 22 yr old. They wouldn’t have offered Weid much last year when he renewed and due to the very late draft pick we gave up for Josh, I suspect we’re taking on all his salary which is more than what he’s obviously worth

Has the 42 list size been finalised? I haven’t found anything on it. I always thought it was going back to pre covid rules of 44 + cat b rookies.

Ok cheers. He's normally credible. It's either clubs can have less than the normal 44 players, or Cal is wrong in his calculations. Another scenario is the AFL has changed it's stance on the minimum 38 primary list spots. Maybe we're doing a 36 primary and 8 rookie. In that case, we'd be taking 4 in the rookie draft!

I've heard this a couple of times. Has anyone heard the club say we're only taking 2 picks? I'm genuinely interested, as I've got them taking 3 or 4! If Chandler takes a primary list spot without us replacing his list spot, we've then got only 42 instead of 43 players like we had this year. Before the covid rules, you had to have 44 players all up excluding Cat B rookies. I've heard the covid rules are being scrapped, but I haven't heard if clubs are allowed to have less than 44 from 2023. If clubs do have to go back to 44 players, we'd need to add 4 in the draft, 2 rookie and Grundy. If Baker gets delisted, that's another we have to add. That would make it 38 Primary List / 6 CAT A Rookies. 38 was the minimum primary list players you could have. You could also do 39 primary and 5 rookie, or 40 and 4 to make up that 44.

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I know he signed a contract not long ago, but I hope we’ve been in Hayden Young’s ear. Peter Bell’s tiny little head will explode if we convinced Young to be traded haha!

If West Coast get picks 8 and 12. And Freo can't get a top 10 pick. Here's the 2 scenario's IMO. Which one is better?? WC - Jackson. Melb - 8 + 20 + 26 + 2023 WC Round 2. (I've added in 3 x WC 2nd rounders as I don't think we should accept only 1 x 1st rounder with only 2 x 2nd rounders. This way WC keep pick 12 and get Jackson). ---------------- Freo - Jackson. Melb - 13 + 2023 Freo Round 1 + 2023 Nth Melb R2.

He played 9 home and away games. 2 finals. That's why he didn't poll well.

Hey mate. Has there been any word yet on next years salary cap? I haven't heard anything which is strange seeing there's a trade period coming up. Where did you hear $600k? Cheers.

The point of my post was to explain a salary dump trade to those who don't understand that if the club that's selling pays part of the salary, then the club that's buying gives up a pick slightly higher, not lower. What pick he's worth is up for debate. I just gave examples. In terms of his injuries, they aren't career defining injuries. Injuries happen. That's footy. A PCL is a 3 month injury. Ruckman have them all the time. Jarrod Witts is 30yrs old, had an ACL last year (12 month injury). This year he was in the All Australian squad of 40, at 30 years of age. Injuries heal. Grundy is an elite Ruckman and history shows us that elite players at 29yrs old are normally late 1st rounders. Westbrook has an attitude problem as well as his salary. He's a problem to have around the club. He's just a jerk! With Grundy's case, it's just his salary that's the problem. Seeing they've appointed Graham Wright last year, they want the Hawthorn model of their success years of having the salary cap hit of their ruck stocks at 1 million in total. That's their list strategy. They've had Cameron and Cox step up this year and want Grundy's salary portion to go towards a key forward (McStay). You have to compare apples with apples.

His injuries that he's had this year aren't career defining injuries. On the pick discussion. It seems you're not quite getting how the salary dump works. In your example saying that he's worth a pick 30. It means his trade value for Melbourne would be lower (lets say 25), and not higher (like you stated at 35 to 40). This is because Collingwood are paying part of his salary.

I'm sure most of you know, but going by a few comments, there's a few people on here that don't know how a salary dump works with trade value. These pick numbers are what I think, and are obviously up for debate, but the example of how salary dumps work is this. Lets say the true value both clubs see Grundy is a Pick 21. (This is disregarding his salary, or any salary dump. This is just based on his age and ability etc). IF Collingwood are paying $300k per year, it would mean that Pick 21 slides down to about 16. IF Collingwood don't pay any of his salary, That Pick 21 slides up to about 35. Lets say a team like North that have plenty of salary cap space. They would do the reverse on what we would be doing and paying all of Grundy's salary, which would mean Collingwood get a worse pick. Lets say Pick 35.

This is only last year. Looks not bad as a forward. His hands are clean. He doesn't kick that many goals in total as he's been the main ruck. I think with 50% time in the forward line he could kick 25 to 35 goals a year. If Max can replicate that with his 50%, that's a good outcome. Another positive I see in the signing is, lets say Gawn and Grundy play until there 34. That means we have Gawn for 4 more years and Grundy for 6. In my opinion, our premiership window is more than 4 more years. By getting Grundy extends our time with a dominant ruckman whilst in our window, tapping it down to Petracca, Oliver, Brayshaw, Viney etc.

I'm not yet 100% sold on Tomlinson being contracted to 2024 as reported by a reporter this week. Sam McLure has also said on SEN this week he's only got 1 year left. Back in 2019, the AFL website has an article that said until the end of 2023. Fox Sports and The Age said 2024. If I was to bet on it, I would say it's 2023.

Good get! What do we think he’s on. My thoughts would be about $400k per year. They’d have to factor in how good he could be in 2024 and 2025. He could be on as high as $450k if they think he could be a 550k-600k player in those last 2 years?!

Just that changing of gears wasn’t there for me today. By that I mean, the intent to tackle when within 2 to 5 metres of an opponent. He seemed to keep the one pace. I want to see the intent, that competitive edge to run a player down. Another contest where he wasn’t quite running back with the flight as such, but kinda was. He could of gone a bit harder. It wasn’t a moment of crapping himself or anything bad like that. It just wasn’t that extra 5% effort to really make the contest harder for his opponent, and to obviously win the ball himself. Like my previous post stated after the game, there were a few positives also. But the type of negatives that he possessed today is leaning me towards not taking him in the draft. Hopefully he’s not always like that. You never know what niggles or injuries a player is taking into a game.