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The Run Home
My friend, I am pleased to say I cannot disagree more! So many of our players have scope for improvement! Not to say they all will, but there is so much potential. Even in the ones we might not expect - look at TMac. I expect natural progression from: JVR, Turner, Judd, Kolt, Windsor, AMW, Howes, Kynan, Taj and Jefferson. One or two of our other rookies may also come on. To a lesser extent I would include; Rivers, Pickett and Chandler. I think the following players have either been down or unavailable for different reasons and are a chance to either improve dramatically, play a critical role or regain their best form: Oliver, Spargo, Laurie, Petty, Sparrow, Bowey, McAdam, Melksham and Salem. They won't all improve but I think a lot will. We've got a great and underrated bunch! So excited to see how they all go in the years to come.
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POSTGAME: Rd 20 vs GWS
I'd argue that cogs and in particular Kelly are huge outs. Certainly agree we were far from our optimal team, but they still had very good players not playing. Briggs was also clearly very hampered too. Certainly we could've won the game at the end with more luck. With less luck though we could've lost by a lot more! They left one one on the park with an all-time blooper. I think we did very well with the team we had but I still believe the better team on the night won.
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POSTGAME: Rd 20 vs GWS
It was very sad to not win. Was absolutely gutted afterwards. In the light of day though I'm still proud of the performance. GWS were far from full strength but still have a lot of class and grit. It was great to see Oli playing with some more confidence and skill in the first half, but unfortunately spent most of his tickets. I didn't expect to win and they had a really good crack. Unfortunate reality is that in Brayshaw, Petracca, Salem, Tommo, Hunter, McAdam, Spargo, Smith and Brown a large chunk of our salary cap has been unavailable or inefficiently utilised this season. Another chunk is clearly hampered without a fitness base. Call it bad list management or bad luck, it's the reality and has made it virtually impossible to play at the required level consistently. I think we've taken necessary calculated risks that for most of the last 3 years have paid off but this year we have clearly been off the pace from a talent perspective. This has given some opportunity to younger players who have shown a lot of promise, but are still young. I am super excited about what this group can do and will be very interested this off-season. Love my Dees. The journey continues!
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Trade Targets
Agree with you completely. LDU is incredible, agility of Trac (without the same raw power and flair) and Pendle's presence of mind in traffic. Would LOVE him with us but I think it would be a very poor move to leave North. Will be as competitive as any soon. Jonesy gave a speech to them a few months ago and I reckon he got in LDU's ear about the value of loyalty.
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The Run Home
I think the manner of the defeats to Freo change perspectives a bit. If they had both been close losses then everything would be a bit more rosy, not only because of percentage. It is funny though, if we are to bounce back this week we'll actually be tracking pretty similarly to the darling Hawks - who got done in similar fashion to us a few weeks ago. The fact that it's so open with so many teams in it means that if you get on a roll, top 4 is still open for most. The downside is that a few losses in a row and finals is likely lost completely. With all teams being so close, the fact that we are missing Trac, have Gawn looking a bit proppy and Oliver perhaps not at his game-breaking best creates a feeling that maybe to compete with those other teams would be a bridge too far. A good win against GWS and the mentality will switch again completely!
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Oliver Trade Rumours
I see don't really see lower 'effort' instances. Maybe less consistency of concentration, but I think fitness underpins that too. Maybe that's the same thing anyway. It's a general interpretation thing for me though, I feel that the AFL world jumps to a 'lack of effort' when I think it's more often some combination of concentration, method and fitness issues. Lack of effort implies a character flaw which for me means a player would be very unlikely to make it at AFL level. I think when these instances occur, 9/10 times the effort is there, but it can either be misguided or caused by a lack of concentration in the moment. With lack of fitness, method and concentration drop off. Sorry to ramble, just find the effort discussion interesting. My point is that I believe perceived lacks of effort often come down to fitness and confidence in method and I believe Clarry will be able to regain these traits along with his explosiveness if he can get a really good run at a preseason. I can't see a situation where we would be fairly compensated draft-wise for him so don't think we could ever get a good trade/wage outcome (obviously with the caveat that I can't judge any internal cohesion matters other than what my eyes tell me).
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Oliver Trade Rumours
I guess I see reasons rather than excuses. Didn't miss the entire pre-season but it was certainly very interrupted. I reckon if he hadn't had that hand surgery he'd be closer as well, thought he was still looking a class above at times early. Has still managed a decent output despite these issues for mine, even if the flair we're used to hasn't been there to the same degree or as consistently.
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Oliver Trade Rumours
Wish it was this simple mate. Unfortunately during the season you have to prioritise recovery. Means that maintenance of fitness level is really the go - outside of the L word or the 6-8 week 'mini' pre seasons that we sometimes see. Your pre-season sets up your year. Talked to a mate about this recently who played at a high level. He missed a month or so of preseason once and said he couldn't get near it for the rest of the year, eventually his body broke down before the end as well. Full preseason the year after and he was back to his best. Feel free to take with a grain of salt as it's just a one-off anecdote. I fully expect it's the same for our boy though.
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Petty Re-Signs for 2 Years
Absolutely love this. Have no doubt that his foot issues destroying his preseason and confidence in his leap have caused most of his issues. I know most will want him returned to defence but I think he'll surprise a few and come on strongly as a forward yet. Go Petts!
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Tom Fullarton - back up ruck?
Don't think any of them make much of a difference to anything yesterday. Naismith maybe? Might've just got injured for us too. Goldy? Might've been a worse outcome having him trudging around. As if we weren't flat-footed enough. Certainly would've liked Moyle out there but how long is he going to be a backup for. I of course hope we can get someone like him for our next roll of the dice!
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POSTGAME: Rd 19 vs Fremantle
Freo looked fantastic. We lacked concentration and class all over the field. Would've loved a win, but our youthful resurgence was probably due for this. No answer for Darcy and the raw running power of their midfield. They really have an incredible group in there. If they can keep everyone together they're going to be very strong for a long time. I have no less excitement for 2025 though. We have so much talent to either come in or that I would expect to improve. Such a tight and strong competition. I really think this is the strongest it has been in my time following footy. So many teams full of guns. Has looked very unlikely for us for a while now but will still enjoy our games week by week and hope we can give ourselves the best chance to be amongst it next year.
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Oliver Trade Rumours
Yup, agree with this. If he needs any further surgeries I really hope they can do them early to give him the best chance of a good preseason. Partly wonder if it's psychological too - been kicked very hard in the hard a few times now, would surely cause some unconcious hesitancy (similar worry over situation with Petty's foot).
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Tom Fullarton - back up ruck?
We took a speculative low-cost risk on Fullarton hoping he could become something he clearly hasn't yet. We traded pick 47 in a supposed 'shallow' draft for him, not a first rounder. Clearly hasn't come on as we hoped but was who we believed to be best available for our needs at the pick and within our wage budget. Would I like a Lloyd Meek who can come in and fill a need? Of course. But even if we have one, come the end of the year we're rebalancing our cap and working out who we need to let go to pay our back up ruck an above average wage. Lists will always have holes due to the nature of the salary cap, backup ruck is one for us. Can only fill these holes by taking calculated risks that sometimes work and sometimes don't. I'm excited to see what we do this off-season but won't be at all surprised if we have the same issues next year as you just can't afford to pay a backup ruck anything other than minimum and Gawn needs to be first ruck.
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Are contested possessions a 'key indicator of success'?
Don't think it's changed, at least not recently. Maybe 20 or 30 years ago. Player picks up ball and makes effective disposal = brain happy point score high (too much supercoach)
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Are contested possessions a 'key indicator of success'?
Great article! Wish BT would read it. Maybe he could figure out what a clearance is while he's at it. I don't think there'd be another sport in the world where the 'experts' are as unwilling to develop an understanding of the statistical side of the game as ours. The biggest advantage if these things were more mainstream would be that those of us playing supercoach wouldn't have to suffer people complaining about Bontempelli scoring so well! We might as well rename the contested knock-on the Bont!