Red and Blue realist

I think he's done, and I highly doubt he'd want to come and do a pre-season and all the training just to be backup, whereas if he wanted too he'd still be no1 ruck at a few clubs.

I think this cycle has another factor, and that's salary cap management. We push picks down the line but need to bring in more cheaper 'rookie picks', which are generally paid less than drafted players. Might only be a small saving, but there's also more chance that a top level draft pick will be paid higher in a shorter amount of time as well, whereas a rookie pick comes in with some expectation of longer development. Pushing more into next years draft means we'll have more higher paid players gone or nearly gone (BBB, TMac, Max, Tomo, May etc. all 2024/25) when they are coming into the period where younger guys need to get bigger extensions.

Is Schache better or worse than Weid - the answer is neither. Is pick 37 better than 54,72 & future 70s pick - for sure. So, if Schache is on a lot less coin than Weid, which I suspect, this is a pretty handy trade, it's no world beater but a shrewd piece of trading.

We might want some open spots for the mid season draft, or be happy to go with more rookies this year - I think you have to have a minimum of 42 players but up to 6 can be rookies. We could be trying to even out some of the big spending we've done lately (Clarry, Trac and Grundy) so we have some room next and in future years?

He's not great, like a lot of forwards who only do very part time rucking. I think they even used Bruce instead of him a lot of the time, but if he's still probably better than BBB. Still I doubt he'd be coming across as a ruck back up.

I'd be guessing that Weid being in contract might be on $350-400K, whereas with Schache out of contract and seemingly on the scrap head - we might be looking at a delisted free agent not a trade - he might be on $100k or more less. Could they both turn it around with a change of clubs - maybe? But at least we'll be saving some $$ on the similar player.

He might have when much younger, but at the more 'elite' junior levels he was a defender - here's his draft profile https://central.rookieme.com/afl/player/harrison-petty/ I don't mind the idea of both Petty and May becoming more adaptable as swingman, but neither should be transformed into full time forwards unless we got a full time replacement in the back line. Turner is too raw to back in for a full season and Tomo is 4th in line, we'd really have nothing else behind them - Smith maybe but he's not that real lock down key defender.

I'd say there's a chance the club had a target in mind to move up the draft for, and now that chance might be gone - for instance if we thought Cadman was around pick 5, but now the talk is he'll be in the first 3 and we know we can't get there. So maybe they think the slide back from 13 to 16 won't really hurt as we might have half a dozen names around there so we'll get 1 of them. Seems like we don't really rate this draft - already saying we're just taking 2 picks, so our focus might be more on moving next year.

We had a lot of interest in Flynn in his draft year, my guess is we'd be after him?

Because they've got 14 players who'll be over 30 next season (assuming no one else leaves or retires) and of those only Cameron and Stewart (the youngest as well) are likely to be on longer more expensive deals. Some of the others have been extremely highly paid during their careers and in order to stay on a list they would have accepted a lower contract - exactly why I think guys like Hibberd and Melksham can be useful. They managed to get the flag, and good on them for that, but it could have gone the other way and they could have gone the way of North a few years back.

Interesting article, not just on Jackson but using various data sets what the players are likely to produce compared to what the average player taken at the corresponding pick will produce. Jackson they have at pick 2 (same as kozzie) while both Oliver and Trac better than pick 1 - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-04/why-noah-anderson-is-the-most-valuable-player-in-the-afl/101498378

With the soft cap reductions, although they have been eased somewhat, I wonder if most clubs will be hanging onto an older player or 2, who really only plays if required as compared to demanding a spot. Then they become nearly like assistant coaches around the club and in the VFL. I know Hibberd was a near consistent best 22, but could be pushed out this year while Melk might that hybrid player/coach, along with Tomo, as the rest of our elder players (those over 28) were all best 22.

At the moment GWS have draft picks 3, 12, 19, 21, 44, 61 and 63 and will clearly be getting in more picks for Hopper - potentially 31 this year and others next year (plus they already have an additional 2nd round pick next). So there's no need for us to do anymore than wait for the Giants to finish the Hopper deal, see what picks/players they get to see how many draft picks they'll actually use. By my count they've had 4 players (on the senior list) go out, with another to go, but potentially 1 to come back in. So there likely to only use 4 draft picks, so one of 19, 21, 31 or 44 will be useless to them, let alone 61 & 63. So were in a position to aim for a good deal for Bedford, I'd like to upgrade 27 further to say pick 19 and have the Pies pay even more of Grundy's wage.

I'd be guessing that Brissy will probably swap picks with Gol Coast, who have a heap of picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, as compared to us. I'm sure we probably asked the question of a few clubs and Port must have come back with the best offer.

We might even then trade this with GWS with Bedford - something like Bedford and 27 for pick 19 and a future 3rd? 19 then goes to Collingwood for Grundy and bit more of his wage paid?

He had a bad year this year, but was on par with Langdon last year - had a down grand final but all the Dogs did. So it's really only been 1 bad year. Tarryn Thomas will only go north - either the team or the states!

If it's Hunter who's partially driving this, as compared to the Dogs wanting him out, then that might be a good sign. The Dogs are well know as a party team - Libba, Smith, and Hunter being up there with the worst. Maybe Hunter has looked at what our mids do and sees the work they put in and wants to get to that sort of environment. Maybe this season has been a hit between the eyes and he knows if he wants to stay in the game beyond this contract he needs to knuckle down, and doing that around those others at the Dogs could make it easier to fall back into bad habits. If these are all true then he'd be a great pick up on the non-Langdon wing, which in turn would allow Jordon to go back and fight for a mid spot and if Harmes leaves it could be a net positive return.

Maybe Harmes has come to question his place in the side, when he got injured in round 19, he was brought back as the sub as compared to straight into the team. Right at that time Brayshaw went into the middle and (I can't remember where I read this) over the last 5 rounds averaged the 4th most disposals in the comp. Plus I think we've shown we are reluctant to play a true tagger - having assigned both Viney and Brashaw run with roles during the season. So Harmes might be thinking he's gone from 4th or 5th mid option (behind Clarry, Trac and Viney) with Sparrow in the mix around that 4th/5th spot, to now the 5th/6th spot, which means he's got to either try and adapt to a new role - wing, half back/forward or there's a chance he'll be one of the first in and out of the team based on performance or selection needs. I don't think he can play permanent wing or half back - he can go and do those roles sporadically but, and this is the same why half forward might not suit, I think he has more burst than stamina and couldn't do those roles long enough. He does have a good goal sense, but half forwards need to run and pressure all day, which is not his go. As the 4th/5th mid you can find a lot of game time as long as you can do those other roles ok, but Sparrow only averaged 68.5% time on ground this year and maybe Harmes doesn't want that, knowing elsewhere he could be playing a bigger role???

Also says that his salary decreases over the last 2 years of the deal, I wonder if we're getting him to average it out a bit and it'll end up being around $600k per year (after the Pies chip in $300k). That'll be a huge get for us, I think he jumps into our top 10 players and will allow Max to play for another year or 2. A pick in the 20s would be justified here.

This makes sense, however is the longest and messiest option. The JHF news only really broke last night, while it has been bubbling under the service, so it's likely to take a very long time for them (Port & Nth) to work through. Unlike our talks with Freo which would have been happening for weeks. In fact there's so many deals this trade period that are just messy and relying on other deals to be done first.

A new report - focusing on the 2021 season - surveyed every AFL player and found we had one of the best cultures - https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/majority-of-afl-players-feel-their-senior-coach-is-unsupportive-of-them-pursuing-offfield-interests/news-story/7fb6a41bd3f70b13dcd9b892e63d1674 (Behind paywall) Some quotes: It’s believed the report, which covered the 2021 AFL season, read favourably for Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Geelong and Brisbane Lions. “We’re seeing some real clear themes here, and the key words I’d probably use are trust, care, respecting the players’ time and empowering players is what we’ve seen as the big shift in the industry. “Players are repaying the trust and the clubs that are giving it to them are becoming clubs of choice. “Players are gravitating towards those clubs. The work we do and players talking to each other, there is a movement towards those types of clubs.”

Not sure if the rebuilding clubs will really be an option, while they might have the cap space, I doubt they'll be prepared to match the asking price. Remember GC are only adding pick 7 if they also get a future 1st attached. Given the 2023 draft crop is supposed to be very strong, then I can't see NM or Hawks coming into play as they are likley to be near the top end of that draft.

I'd wish him nothing but the best if he leaves. Clearly we've put a deal in front of him that can't compete with WC, and that's fair enough as well. He's probably in the best 16-30 player bracket on our list and we've offered a contract to reflect that. He goes to WC and is probably within their best 10-15, so would be getting more $ and a longer contract at a guess. He's given us 114 games and like all premiership teams you end up losing a few outside the best dozen or so players. Rich lost Ellis/Conca/Butler who were in a similar spot to Hunt, so it happens. I'm not liking those who rush to find faults in a good servants game when they've left for a better deal.

The other thing that will come into play here, is the amount of picks Gold Coast has this year, and the fact that they are trying to reduce their list size as it is (given previous list concessions being wound back). This year (2022 draft) they already have 2 extra 2nd round picks, 1 extra 3rd round and an extra 4th. Throw in the near guarantee of getting pick 5 for Rankine, trying to get deals done for Corbett/Sharp/Fiorini going out and Long coming in and Gold Coast shape to be one of the most active traders around. They'll be trying to move all those 2nds/3rds/4ths up the order - maybe with Brisbane so they only have 1st round picks this year, and set themselves up with a big haul for next year too.

Gold Coast are after a future 1st round - preferably not from a club likely to finish too high on the ladder, for Bowes and pick 7 this year. Failing to mention that they want that future 1st is lazy journalism and gets a lot of people in unnecessarily here interested! Gold Coast are not giving up Bowes and pick 7 for nothing in return. Maybe we could swing a future 1st from Freo their way, but we'd then have to sort out Bowes contract, and I doubt we'd be able to do that and get Grundy or other targets.