Conventional wisdom says that a club reaches the point of no return in the AFL competition if it has won less than four matches at the mid point of the season.
What this means for Melbourne is that in order for it to remain in the race for a top-eight position, it must start winning games now. Moreover, It's not enough to win the next game but it must also start stringing wins together to make up for its deficit in both wins and percentage.
With so much at stake there will be no excuses for another lacklustre performance of the sort displayed by the Demons in the first three quarters of their game at the MCG last Sunday against the GWS Giants. Injuries, you say? All clubs suffer injuries throughout a season but the strong can overcome that diversity and fight back against the tide. Collingwood suffered a suitcase load of them in 2018 and still came to within a sniff of taking off a premiership.
Melbourne’s immediate opponents are the Adelaide Crows at TIO Stadium in Darwin where the club has had mixed results in the past. It destroyed the Dockers there last year but succumbed to the Crows at that venue two years ago.
We are likely to see a restructured lineup for this week’s game but Simon Goodwin needs to get far more out of his midfield than he had been getting over the past month or so. Adelaide itself has displayed some flakey form of its own but will be tough to beat at close to full strength.
I’m reminded however, of that game at Adelaide Oval in 2017 when the Demons came from a fair way back and essentially reinvented themselves to win big against the then flag favourites. This is Goodwin’s old club and it will be his mission this week to overturn the conventional wisdom about his new club being totally cooked for the season and to come up with some magic and another reinvention into to kickstart its 2019 campaign and to avoid it reaching the point of no return.
Melbourne by 1 point
DISCUSSION
THE GAME
Melbourne v Adelaide at TIO Stadium Darwin Saturday 1 June, 2019 at 7.40pm
HEAD TO HEAD
Overall - Melbourne 15 wins Adelaide 24 wins
At TIO Stadium - Melbourne 0 wins Adelaide 1 win
Past five me etings - Melbourne 3 wins Adelaide 2 wins
The Coaches - Simon Goodwin 3 wins Don Pyke 1 win
MEDIA
TV - Channel 7 Fox Sports 3 Live at 7.30pm
RADIO - Triple M SEN
THE LAST TIME THEY MET
Melbourne 13.12.90 defeated Adelaide 10.17.77 Round 19, 2018 at Adelaide Oval
Melbourne started slowly in Jordan Lewis' 300th game before putting on the afterburners to take a comfortable 32 point lead at the final break. In the last quarter, the Crows were dominant in the wet conditions but they were unable to peg back the lead and failed by a margin of 13 points in the end. Clayton Oliver was the Demons’ best.
THE TEAMS
MELBOURNE
B Michael Hibberd Sam Frost Josh Wagner
HB Marty Hore Oscar McDonald Jayden Hunt
C Angus Brayshaw Jack Viney Oskar Baker
HF Nathan Jones Tom McDonald Christian Petracca
F Jeff Garlett Tim Smith James Harmes
FOLL Max Gawn Mitch Hannan Clayton Oliver
I/C Bayley Fritsch Christian Salem Charlie Spargo Billy Stretch
EMG James Jordon Jay Kennedy Harris Corey Wagner Sam Weideman
IN Mitch Hannan Michael Hibberd Christian Salem
OUT Harrison Petty (knee) Jay Lockhart (knee) Corey Wagner (omitted)
ADELAIDE CROWS
B Luke Brown Daniel Talia Kyle Hartigan
HB Brodie Smith Alex Keath Rory Laird
C Wayne Milera Brad Crouch Rory Atkins
HF Paul Seedsman Taylor Walker Tom Lynch
F Lachlan Murphy Josh Jenkins Eddie Betts
FOLL Reilly O'Brien Bryce Gibbs Rory Sloane
I/C Cameron Ellis-Yolmen Jordan Gallucci Hugh Greenwood Jake Kelly
EMG Elliott Himmelberg Chayce Jones Riley Knight David Mackay
IN Bryce Gibbs Josh Jenkins Tom Lynch
OUT Elliott Himmelberg (omitted) Chayce Jones (omitted) Riley Knight (omitted)
Injury/Suspension List: Round 11
Nathan Jones (head) – available
Christian Salem (concussion – available Michael Hibberd (collarbone) – test
Kade Kolodjashnij (concussion) – test
Jake Lever (ankle ) – test
Steven May (groin) – test
Alex Neal-Bullen (concussion) – test
Harry Petty (knee) – test
Jordan Lewis (suspension) – 1 week
Corey Maynard (concussion) – 1 week
Joel Smith (groin) – 4-6 weeks
Aaron vandenBerg (foot) – 4-6 weeks
Jake Melksham (foot) – 5-6 weeks
Neville Jetta (knee) – 6-8 weeks
Guy Walker (shoulder) – indefinite
Aaron Nietschke (knee) – season