Stats Files - 2024

[binman 44,869]

17 minutes ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

I’m an optimist like you Binman, but I can’t see us playing finals this year and that’s ok.

I was really impressed with how our young side took it up to the Lions, with some good games from our senior players. I was expecting a 4-5 goal loss, and after getting over the close loss I was proud of the effort.

I’d be interested to know the age differences between the two sides.

Fair points.

I think in the context of young players, its worth considering the impact of no salo or bowey.

Bowey is young, but up to rhe critical 50 game mark. And salo is obviously a well seasoned player.

Both were essentially replaced by inexperienced kids. 

In hindsight, I would have preferred laurie be the emergency as would have provided more flexibility and experience than pup, is physically stronger and has four AFL presasons under his belt to pups one.

What would have happened if pup had to dome on in say the first quarter?

[Demon Dynasty 17,169]

8 hours ago, Binmans PA said:

Our pressure ratings are also way down consistently these days. We rarely win the quarter for pressure and certainly rarely win the game for pressure.

Our team pressure rating in a fair percentage of matches is also below the AFL average (180).

[Demon Dynasty 17,169]

Round 16, 2024 Gabba - Lions vs Demons

Scoring Efficiency	Lions	Demons
Disposals Per Goal	33.4	30.7
% In50s Goal	20.8	21.6
Conversion %	35.5	42.3

Average Attributes
Brisbane	Attribute	Melbourne
188.2cm	Height	187.3cm
86.5kg	Weight	86.7kg
26yr 3mth	Age	25yr 3mth
124.8	Games	105

 

Total Players By Games
Brisbane	Games	Melbourne
7	Less than 50	9
0	50 to 99	4
7	100 to 149	1
5	150 to 200	5
4	200 or more	4

Roo's best rating for the season and his best since Rnd 21, 2023 vs the Kangaroos where he posted a 3.20

9 effectives @ 64%, 3 contested marks, 3 one percenters, 2 clearances, 1 inside 50, 3 tackles, 7 score involvements, 2 intercepts, 192 meters gained, 2 goals and 3 turnovers.

Clarry the top rating for us on the night...

18 effectives @ 62%, 5 clearances (his average in 2023 approx 7), 2 rebounds, 3 inside 50s, 6 tackles (1 inside 50), 3 intercepts, 423 meters gaines, 1 goal and 5 turnovers.  Still a fair way off his 2023 average though.  Down by 15%.

Moniz a very solid debut...

11 effectives @ 69%, 1 one percenter, 2 rebounds, 2 clearances, 2 inside 50s, 3 tackles, 2 score involvements, 6 intercepts, 299 meters gained and 5 turnovers.

Kozzy's best rating this year also...

9 effectives @ 75%, 1 contested mark, 3 marks inside 50, 1 clearance, 5 inside 50s, 6 tackles (3 inside 50), 11 score involvements, 360 meters gaines, 5 goals & 1 miserly turnover.  His best rating since Rnd 7, 2023 vs the Kangas with a 4.27

Player	Rating	Rank	2023      Season    Rating	%         Change  vs 2023
C Oliver	4.250	1	5.002	-15.0
K Pickett	4.175	2	2.101	98.7
Jack Viney	3.675	3	3.707	-0.9
Ed Langdon	3.300	4	3.057	7.9
A N-Bullen	3.250	5	2.532	28.4
H Petty < 74%	3.125	6	2.718	15.0
T McDonald	3.100	7	2.054	50.9
J V Rooyen	3.025	8	2.170	39.4
J McVee	2.725	9	2.320	17.5
J Lever	2.675	10	3.131	-14.6
T Rivers	2.650	11	3.696	-28.3
Max Gawn	2.525	12	3.350	-24.6
T Sparrow	2.500	13	2.811	-11.1
C Windsor	2.500	13	-	-
D Turner	2.275	15	1.825	24.7
A M-Wakefield	2.250	16	-	-
S May	2.175	17	3.213	-32.3
B Fritsch	2.100	18	2.324	-9.6
K Chandler	2.050	19	2.265	-9.5
T Woewodin	1.525	20	2.993	-49.0
K Tholstrup	1.500	21	-	-
A Tomlinson	1.350	22	2.912	-53.6
K Brown > 7%	-0.100	23	-	-
Team Score	58.70		69.86	-16.0
Top 6	21.78		24.43	-10.9
Bottom 6	10.70		15.17	-29.5

 

Lions

Unfortunately a long way ahead of us on the night in all team rating metrics.

Player	Rating	Rank
J Dunkley	5.850	1
D Zorko	5.350	2
L Neale	5.075	3
R Lester	4.825	4
H McCluggage	3.750	5
B Starcevich	3.700	6
H Andrews	3.525	7
B Reville	3.425	8
D Wilmot	3.400	9
W Ashcroft	3.175	10
J Berry	3.000	11
K Lohmann	2.750	12
E Hipwood	2.650	13
C Rayner	2.575	14
C McKenna	2.225	15
O McInerney	2.000	16
J Daniher	1.875	17
C Ah Chee	1.650	18
D Joyce	1.425	19
C Cameron	1.375	20
J Fletcher < 30%	0.900	21
Zac Bailey	0.600	22
L Morris > 43%	0.200	23
Team Score	65.10
Top 6	28.55
Bottom 6	7.83

 

Combined Ratings

Player	Rating	Rank
J Dunkley	5.850	1
D Zorko	5.350	2
L Neale	5.075	3
R Lester	4.825	4
C Oliver	4.250	5
K Pickett	4.175	6
H McCluggage	3.750	7
B Starcevich	3.700	8
Jack Viney	3.675	9
H Andrews	3.525	10
B Reville	3.425	11
D Wilmot	3.400	12
Ed Langdon	3.300	13
A N-Bullen	3.250	14
W Ashcroft	3.175	15
H Petty < 74%	3.125	16
T McDonald	3.100	17
J V Rooyen	3.025	18
J Berry	3.000	19
K Lohmann	2.750	20
J McVee	2.725	21
J Lever	2.675	22
E Hipwood	2.650	23
T Rivers	2.650	23
C Rayner	2.575	25
Max Gawn	2.525	26
T Sparrow	2.500	27
C Windsor	2.500	27
D Turner	2.275	29
A M-Wakefield	2.250	30
C McKenna	2.225	31
S May	2.175	32
B Fritsch	2.100	33
K Chandler	2.050	34
O McInerney	2.000	35
J Daniher	1.875	36
C Ah Chee	1.650	37
T Woewodin	1.525	38
K Tholstrup	1.500	39
D Joyce	1.425	40
C Cameron	1.375	41
A Tomlinson	1.350	42
J Fletcher < 30%	0.900	43
Zac Bailey	0.600	44
L Morris > 43%	0.200	45
K Brown > 7%	-0.100	46

< Subbed out TOG %

> Subbed in TOG %

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited June 29, 2024 by Demon Dynasty

[DeeZone 10,603]

Thanks DD the Stats bare out the fact that their best were significantly better than our best for longer, it also supports that we had a more even spread across our playing group and our youngsters dropped off in the last.

[Demon Dynasty 17,169]

4 hours ago, DeeZone said:

Thanks DD the Stats bare out the fact that their best were significantly better than our best for longer, it also supports that we had a more even spread across our playing group and our youngsters dropped off in the last.

Yes we also had nearly double the number of less experienced / rookie players in the sub 100 game category DZ...

Demons 13 vs Lions 7

We are effectively already into the early stages of a mini rebuild and probably another two pre-seasons before bringing in the right talent, building up a few of the existing ones (Windsor, Jeffo, possibly Kentfield, Brown dog & Sesto) that will see some sort of turnaround.

A recovery of sorts possibly well into 2026 and beyond it seems.

Edited June 30, 2024 by Demon Dynasty

[Demon Dynasty 17,169]

Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 16, 2024 vs H&A Season 2023

Clarry leapfrogs Maysie into 3rd place, with Tommo dropping 4 places after a very poor showing up at the Gabba.

Player	2024 Rating	2024 Rank	2023 Rating	% Change vs 2023	2023 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2023
C Petracca	4.476	1	4.707	-4.9	2	1
Max Gawn	4.150	2	3.350	23.9	7	5
C Oliver	3.655	3	5.002	-26.9	1	-2
Steven May	3.623	4	3.213	12.8	8	4
Jake Lever <	3.403	5	3.131	8.7	9	4
C Salem <	3.365	6	2.993	12.4	12	6
T Rivers	3.330	7	3.696	-9.9	5	-2
Jack Viney	3.327	8	3.707	-10.3	4	-4
Ed Langdon	3.013	9	3.057	-1.4	10	1
A N-Bullen	3.000	10	2.532	18.5	20	10
T McDonald	2.970	11	2.054	44.6	27	16
A Tomlinson	2.915	12	2.915	0.0	14	2
Judd McVee	2.902	13	2.320	25.1	22	9
J Bowey <	2.602	14	2.820	-7.7	15	1
K Pickett	2.535	15	2.101	20.7	26	11
T Sparrow	2.492	16	2.811	-11.3	16	0
T Woewodin < >	2.388	17	1.406	69.8	34	17
B Howes	2.348	18	-	-	-	-
M Hore	2.273	19	-	-	-	-
A M-Wakefield*	2.250	20	-	-	-	-
J Billings > <	2.202	21	-	-	-	-
C Windsor <	2.135	22	-	-	-	-
K Chandler	2.080	23	2.265	-8.2	23	0
J V Rooyen	2.073	24	2.170	-4.5	25	1
L Hunter* <	1.838	25	2.939	-37.5	13	-12
B Fritsch	1.800	26	2.324	-22.5	21	-5
B Laurie* < >	1.605	27	2.235	-28.2	24	-3
K Tholstrup	1.517	28	-	-	-	-
S McAdam*	1.483	29	-	-	-	-
Ben Brown <	1.391	30	1.941	-28.3	28	-2
D Turner	1.364	31	1.825	-25.3	31	0
H Petty <	1.311	32	2.718	-51.8	19	-13
C Spargo*	1.200	33	1.886	-36.4	29	-4
J Schache*	0.700	34	1.525	-54.1	33	-1
K Brown* >	0.125	35	-	-	-	-
Team Rating	65.35		69.86	-6.5
Top 6	22.67		24.43	-7.2
Bottom 6	13.60		15.17	-10.4

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed out at least once or more (player rating could be somewhat comprised)

> Subbed in at least once or more (player rating could be somewhat comprised)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

[Demon Dynasty 17,169]

Round 17, 2024 MCG - Demons vs Eagles

Old man Rivers has arrived!  As many have been calling for for quite a while now, we are quickly seeing the pay off of Rivers being moved into the middle.  But only after a forced change with Tracc's unfortunate demise.

And what an impact we're seeing already.  That's the fifth highest rated game by a Demon for season 2024. Only bettered by Tracc himself three times this season in Rnd 1 vs the Doggies (6.00), Rnd 2 vs the Hawks (6.50) and Rnd 4 vs the Crows (5.92).

The only other player to best Rivers superb game today (this season) is Big Maxy in his Rnd 11 master class vs the Saints (the best for the season so far with a 7.20).

Rivers also playing his best rated game in the red & blue, trumping his Rnd 4, 2023 match (also against the Eagles) where he posted a lofty 5.55

Let's take a look through his numbers from today:

23 effectives @ 79.3% (AFL ave approx 74%), 3 one percenters, 7 clearances (equal most alongside Kelly), 5 rebounds, 5 inside 50s, 5 tackles (1 inside 50), 9 score involvements (equal 2nd with ANB but behind JVR on 10, the best on the day), 1 intercept, 609 meters gained and only 3 turnovers.

Scoring Efficiency	Demons	Eagles
Disposals Per Goal	20.9	35.0
% In50s Goal	34.7	16.3
Conversion %	63.0	44.4

Average Attributes
Melbourne	Attribute	West Coast
186.1cm	Height	181.3cm
85.8kg	Weight	83.7kg
25yr 8mth	Age	26yr 1mth
114	Games	105.4

Player	Rating	Rank	2023 Season Rating	% Change vs 2023
T Rivers	5.825	1	3.696	57.6
C Salem	4.700	2	2.993	57.0
T McDonald	4.475	3	2.054	117.9
C Windsor	4.300	4	-	-
Ed Langdon	3.775	5	3.057	23.5
A N-Bullen	3.750	6	2.532	48.1
J McVee	3.725	7	2.320	60.6
S May	3.675	8	3.213	14.4
J Lever	3.200	9	3.131	2.2
J V Rooyen	3.075	10	2.170	41.7
Max Gawn < 64%	2.975	11	3.350	-11.2
A M-Wakefield	2.925	12	-	-
K Tholstrup	2.900	13	-	-
K Chandler	2.800	14	2.265	23.6
C Oliver	2.425	15	5.002	-51.5
B Fritsch	2.400	16	2.324	3.3
J Bowey	2.250	17	2.820	-20.2
Jack Viney	2.075	18	3.707	-44.0
T Sparrow	1.950	19	2.811	-30.6
J Melksham	1.875	20	1.599	17.3
D Turner	1.675	21	1.825	-8.2
K Pickett	1.225	22	2.101	-41.7
T Woewodin > 20%	0.350	23	2.993	-88.3
Team Score	67.98		69.86	-2.7
Top 6	26.83		24.43	9.8
Bottom 6	11.05		15.17	-27.2

< Subbed out TOG %

> Subbed in TOG %

Eagles

Player	Rating	Rank
J McGovern	3.750	1
T Kelly	3.600	2
H Reid	3.400	3
L Ryan	3.225	4
E Yeo	3.225	5
L Duggan	3.200	6
T Cole	2.975	7
A Witherden	2.675	8
J Waterman	2.325	9
J Hutchinson	2.250	10
J Hunt	2.175	11
T Barrass	2.125	12
C Chesser	2.000	13
O Allen	2.000	13
R Ginbey	1.825	15
B J. Williams	1.750	16
B Hough	1.500	17
J Darling	1.400	18
J Jones	1.100	19
J Cripps	1.050	20
J Williams > 19%	0.975	21
T Brockman < 49%	0.750	22
J Rotham	0.375	23
Team Score	49.28
Top 6	20.40
Bottom 6	6.78

 

Combined Ratings

Player	Rating	Rank
T Rivers	5.825	1
C Salem	4.700	2
T McDonald	4.475	3
C Windsor	4.300	4
Ed Langdon	3.775	5
A N-Bullen	3.750	6
J McGovern	3.750	7
J McVee	3.725	8
S May	3.675	9
T Kelly	3.600	10
H Reid	3.400	11
L Ryan	3.225	12
E Yeo	3.225	12
J Lever	3.200	14
L Duggan	3.200	14
J V Rooyen	3.075	16
T Cole	2.975	17
Max Gawn < 64%	2.975	17
A M-Wakefield	2.925	19
K Tholstrup	2.900	20
K Chandler	2.800	21
A Witherden	2.675	22
C Oliver	2.425	23
B Fritsch	2.400	24
J Waterman	2.325	25
J Hutchinson	2.250	26
J Bowey	2.250	26
J Hunt	2.175	28
T Barrass	2.125	29
Jack Viney	2.075	30
C Chesser	2.000	31
O Allen	2.000	31
T Sparrow	1.950	33
J Melksham	1.875	34
R Ginbey	1.825	35
B J. Williams	1.750	36
D Turner	1.675	37
B Hough	1.500	38
J Darling	1.400	39
K Pickett	1.225	40
J Jones	1.100	41
J Cripps	1.050	42
J Williams > 19%	0.975	43
T Brockman < 49%	0.750	44
J Rotham	0.375	45
T Woewodin > 20%	0.350	46

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & foxsports.com.au

Edited July 7, 2024 by Demon Dynasty

[WheeloRatings 1,190]

Melbourne v West Coast (Round 17, 2024)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20241706

Key Team Stats

Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Stat	For	Against	Diff
Disposal Efficiency	73.6	72.9	+0.7
Kicking Efficiency	73.8	68.0	+5.8
Metres Gained	6149	5037	+1112
Inside 50s	49	49	+0
Shots At Goal	28	20	+8
Shots Per Inside 50	57.1	40.8	+16.3
Contested Possessions	129	104	+25
Ground Ball Gets	88	68	+20
Intercepts	64	54	+10
Intercept Marks	15	20	-5
Centre Clearances	8	18	-10
Stoppage Clearances	22	17	+5
Contested Marks	14	10	+4
Marks Inside 50	21	15	+6
Hitouts	28	34	-6
Hitouts To Advantage	10	12	-2
Tackles	56	54	+2
Tackles Inside 50	6	19	-13
Def One On One Loss %	20.0	33.3	-13.3

Contested Possessions

	For	Against	Diff
Melbourne's Defensive 50
Hard Ball Get	6	4	+2
Loose Ball Get	21	9	+12
Contested Mark	1	3	-2
Ruck Hard Ball Get	0	1	-1
Gather From Hitout	4	2	+2
Free For	1	1	0
Total	33	20	+13
Melbourne's Forward 50
Hard Ball Get	4	0	+4
Loose Ball Get	12	6	+6
Contested Mark	4	1	+3
Gather From Hitout	0	1	-1
Contested Knock On	0	1	-1
Free For	2	1	+1
Total	22	10	+12
Post clearance
Hard Ball Get	11	13	-2
Loose Ball Get	52	29	+23
Contested Mark	14	10	+4
Contested Knock On	3	3	0
Free For	7	5	+2
Total	87	60	+27
Pre clearance
Hard Ball Get	3	5	-2
Loose Ball Get	22	21	+1
Ruck Hard Ball Get	5	2	+3
Gather From Hitout	9	11	-2
Contested Knock On	1	3	-2
Free For	2	2	0
Total	42	44	-2

• Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative.
• Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets.
• 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions.

Expected scores

	xScore	Score	Rushed	xWin %	xMargin	Margin	Swing
Melbourne	102.1	112	1	99%	+35.3	+54	+18.7
West Coast	66.9	58	2	1%

Team	Shots	Score	Accuracy	xScore	+/-	xSc. / Shot	Shot Rating
Overall
Melbourne	28	17.9.111	60.7%	101.1	+9.9	3.61	+0.35
West Coast	20	8.8.56	40.0%	64.9	−8.9	3.24	−0.44
General Play
Melbourne	7	6.0.36	85.7%	22.4	+13.6	3.21	+1.94
West Coast	4	2.1.13	50.0%	15.5	−2.5	3.88	−0.63
Set Position
Melbourne	21	11.9.75	52.4%	78.7	−3.7	3.75	−0.18
West Coast	16	6.7.43	37.5%	49.3	−6.3	3.08	−0.40

• xWin %: win probability based on expected scores.
• Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin.
• xScore: total expected score from all shots taken.
• +/-: total score above or below expected score.
• xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty.
• Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal.

Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores.

 

 

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Agn	Diff
1	200	177	+23
2	179	179	0
3	186	162	+24
4	199	154	+45
Match	191	168	+23

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average
Trent Rivers	23	55	26.8
Jack Viney	19	45	59.6
Alex Neal-Bullen	19	44	53.5
Caleb Windsor	17	39	33.3
Andy Moniz-Wakefield	13	35	31.5
Ed Langdon	18	33	30.8
Kade Chandler	13	30	45.4
Koltyn Tholstrup	13	30	37.8
Tom Sparrow	15	28	43.8
Christian Salem	10	28	27.1
Jake Bowey	10	25	16.6
Clayton Oliver	10	23	44.2
Jacob van Rooyen	10	23	16.8
Daniel Turner	9	21	13.4
Kysaiah Pickett	11	20	40.9
Tom McDonald	5	14	20.8
Judd McVee	6	13	14.9
Steven May	5	13	9.3
Bayley Fritsch	6	12	15.4
Max Gawn	4	11	23.1
Taj Woewodin	4	11	14.2
Jake Lever	2	5	14.8
Jake Melksham	3	5	5.0

Source: Herald Sun

Time in Forward Half

Quarter	For	Against
1	53%	47%
2	52%	48%
3	43%	57%
4	43%	57%
Match	49%	51%

Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations.

Score Sources

Summary

Category	Score	Against	Diff
Kick-in	0.1.1	0.0.0	+1
Centre Bounce	0.1.1	3.2.20	-19
Stoppage (Other)	5.1.31	2.3.15	+16
Turnover	12.7.79	3.5.23	+56

Score Source	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Kick-in	1	2.4	0	2.5
Centre Bounce	1	10.4	20	7.3
Stoppage (Other)	31	23.2	15	19.6
Turnover	79	43.1	23	46.4

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast.

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective.

Category	Region	For		Against
		Match	Season	Match	Season *
Centre Bounce	Centre	1	10.4	20	7.3
Kick-in	D50	1	2.4	0	2.5
Stoppage (Other)	D50	12	2.6	0	1.6
Stoppage (Other)	Centre	7	2.2	0	2.0
Stoppage (Other)	Wing	12	12.7	9	9.2
Stoppage (Other)	F50	0	5.8	6	6.8
Turnover	D50	19	8.8	0	7.7
Turnover	Centre	8	7.1	0	7.8
Turnover	Wing	46	21.1	23	24.2
Turnover	F50	6	6.1	0	6.8

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
D50	32	13.8	0	11.8
Centre	16	19.8	20	17.1
Wing	58	33.8	32	33.4
F50	6	11.9	6	13.6

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Defensive 50	32	13.8	0	11.8
Defensive midfield	26	19.1	10	17.8
Centre bounce	1	10.4	20	7.3
Attacking midfield	47	24.1	22	25.4
Forward 50	6	11.9	6	13.6

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast.

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season *
58	32.8	10	29.6

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast.

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2024 %	2023 %
Trent Rivers	24	83%	16.9%	3.0%
Clayton Oliver	23	79%	71.8%	81.4%
Max Gawn	21	72%	84.3%	64.9%
Jack Viney	19	66%	68.0%	72.1%
Tom Sparrow	14	48%	38.8%	44.9%
Kysaiah Pickett	7	24%	36.0%	11.2%
Jacob van Rooyen	7	24%	13.9%	7.6%
Daniel Turner	1	3%	0.5%	0.0%
Christian Salem	0	0%	16.0%	0.0%
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0%	13.7%	2.1%
Koltyn Tholstrup	0	0%	1.9%
Tom McDonald	0	0%	0.0%	5.7%
Christian Petracca			55.8%	61.1%
Josh Schache			8.3%	0.0%
Bailey Laurie			4.4%	0.0%
Charlie Spargo			4.2%	0.0%
Harrison Petty			3.9%	0.7%
Lachie Hunter			0.0%	0.2%

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2024 %	2023 %
Max Gawn	47	60%	81.4%	57.5%
Daniel Turner	16	21%	2.3%	0.0%
Jacob van Rooyen	15	19%	14.3%	13.1%
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0%	0.0%	0.0%
Clayton Oliver	0	0%	0.0%	0.1%
Steven May	0	0%	0.0%	0.0%
Tom McDonald	0	0%	0.0%	9.3%
Tom Sparrow	0	0%	0.0%	0.0%
Josh Schache			13.3%	4.1%
Harrison Petty			4.8%	2.0%
Ben Brown			0.2%	2.3%
Christian Petracca			0.0%	0.4%

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2024)	To Adv. % (2023)
Max Gawn	47	21	8	26.9%	30.1%
Jacob van Rooyen	15	5	1	24.1%	31.1%
Daniel Turner	16	2	1	50.0%
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0	0		0.0%
Tom McDonald	0	0	0		20.0%
Ben Brown				100.0%	0.0%
Josh Schache				100.0%	0.0%
Harrison Petty				31.8%	25.0%
Christian Petracca					100.0%

Opposition hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.
Bailey J. Williams	61	28	10
Jack Darling	12	5	2
Jack Williams	5	1	0

[binman 44,869]

Thanks wheelo.

Coincidentally, I'm on the train to work and just downloaded the wheelo app.

Brilliant product. Great navigation. Easy to use. Visually works really well. Kudos.

A question, how are team ratings calculated (I know it's a combo of attack and defence, but how are the scores for each determined)?

[layzie 34,528]

1 hour ago, binman said:

Thanks wheelo.

Coincidentally, I'm on the train to work and just downloaded the wheelo app.

Brilliant product. Great navigation. Easy to use. Visually works really well. Kudos.

A question, how are team ratings calculated (I know it's a combo of attack and defence, but how are the scores for each determined)?

There's a Wheelo app???

[WheeloRatings 1,190]

52 minutes ago, layzie said:

There's a Wheelo app???

You can install the website as a "progressive web app" from the web browser. Depending on the browser, there may be an "Add to Home screen", "Install this site as an app", or similar option in the menu. It works in Edge and Chrome (on both Android and Windows), but I haven't tested it on an iPhone.

[Adam The God 30,762]

Ground ball game is back in a big way the last two weeks @binman.

Thanks @WheeloRatings as always.

[DeeZone 10,603]

Thanks Wheelo some great and interesting stats there, our defence was very good especially with the 2nd half with the ball spending so much time in their forward half.

[layzie 34,528]

42 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

You can install the website as a "progressive web app" from the web browser. Depending on the browser, there may be an "Add to Home screen", "Install this site as an app", or similar option in the menu. It works in Edge and Chrome (on both Android and Windows), but I haven't tested it on an iPhone.

Fantastic! I'll give it a go on chrome for mobile today 🙂

[DeeZone 10,603]

11 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Round 17, 2024 MCG - Demons vs Eagles

Old man Rivers has arrived!  As many have been calling for for quite a while now, we are quickly seeing the pay off of Rivers being moved into the middle.  But only after a forced change with Tracc's unfortunate demise.

And what an impact we're seeing already.  That's the fifth highest rated game by a Demon for season 2024. Only bettered by Tracc himself three times this season in Rnd 1 vs the Doggies (6.00), Rnd 2 vs the Hawks (6.50) and Rnd 4 vs the Crows (5.92).

The only other player to best Rivers superb game today (this season) is Big Maxy in his Rnd 11 master class vs the Saints (the best for the season so far with a 7.20).

Rivers also playing his best rated game in the red & blue, trumping his Rnd 4, 2023 match (also against the Eagles) where he posted a lofty 5.55

Let's take a look through his numbers from today:

23 effectives @ 79.3% (AFL ave approx 74%), 3 one percenters, 7 clearances (equal most alongside Kelly), 5 rebounds, 5 inside 50s, 5 tackles (1 inside 50), 9 score involvements (equal 2nd with ANB but behind JVR on 10, the best on the day), 1 intercept, 609 meters gained and only 3 turnovers.

Scoring Efficiency	Demons	Eagles
Disposals Per Goal	20.9	35.0
% In50s Goal	34.7	16.3
Conversion %	63.0	44.4

Average Attributes
Melbourne	Attribute	West Coast
186.1cm	Height	181.3cm
85.8kg	Weight	83.7kg
25yr 8mth	Age	26yr 1mth
114	Games	105.4

Player	Rating	Rank	2023 Season Rating	% Change vs 2023
T Rivers	5.825	1	3.696	57.6
C Salem	4.700	2	2.993	57.0
T McDonald	4.475	3	2.054	117.9
C Windsor	4.300	4	-	-
Ed Langdon	3.775	5	3.057	23.5
A N-Bullen	3.750	6	2.532	48.1
J McVee	3.725	7	2.320	60.6
S May	3.675	8	3.213	14.4
J Lever	3.200	9	3.131	2.2
J V Rooyen	3.075	10	2.170	41.7
Max Gawn < 64%	2.975	11	3.350	-11.2
A M-Wakefield	2.925	12	-	-
K Tholstrup	2.900	13	-	-
K Chandler	2.800	14	2.265	23.6
C Oliver	2.425	15	5.002	-51.5
B Fritsch	2.400	16	2.324	3.3
J Bowey	2.250	17	2.820	-20.2
Jack Viney	2.075	18	3.707	-44.0
T Sparrow	1.950	19	2.811	-30.6
J Melksham	1.875	20	1.599	17.3
D Turner	1.675	21	1.825	-8.2
K Pickett	1.225	22	2.101	-41.7
T Woewodin > 20%	0.350	23	2.993	-88.3
Team Score	67.98		69.86	-2.7
Top 6	26.83		24.43	9.8
Bottom 6	11.05		15.17	-27.2

< Subbed out TOG %

> Subbed in TOG %

Eagles

Player	Rating	Rank
J McGovern	3.750	1
T Kelly	3.600	2
H Reid	3.400	3
L Ryan	3.225	4
E Yeo	3.225	5
L Duggan	3.200	6
T Cole	2.975	7
A Witherden	2.675	8
J Waterman	2.325	9
J Hutchinson	2.250	10
J Hunt	2.175	11
T Barrass	2.125	12
C Chesser	2.000	13
O Allen	2.000	13
R Ginbey	1.825	15
B J. Williams	1.750	16
B Hough	1.500	17
J Darling	1.400	18
J Jones	1.100	19
J Cripps	1.050	20
J Williams > 19%	0.975	21
T Brockman < 49%	0.750	22
J Rotham	0.375	23
Team Score	49.28
Top 6	20.40
Bottom 6	6.78

 

Combined Ratings

Player	Rating	Rank
T Rivers	5.825	1
C Salem	4.700	2
T McDonald	4.475	3
C Windsor	4.300	4
Ed Langdon	3.775	5
A N-Bullen	3.750	6
J McGovern	3.750	7
J McVee	3.725	8
S May	3.675	9
T Kelly	3.600	10
H Reid	3.400	11
L Ryan	3.225	12
E Yeo	3.225	12
J Lever	3.200	14
L Duggan	3.200	14
J V Rooyen	3.075	16
T Cole	2.975	17
Max Gawn < 64%	2.975	17
A M-Wakefield	2.925	19
K Tholstrup	2.900	20
K Chandler	2.800	21
A Witherden	2.675	22
C Oliver	2.425	23
B Fritsch	2.400	24
J Waterman	2.325	25
J Hutchinson	2.250	26
J Bowey	2.250	26
J Hunt	2.175	28
T Barrass	2.125	29
Jack Viney	2.075	30
C Chesser	2.000	31
O Allen	2.000	31
T Sparrow	1.950	33
J Melksham	1.875	34
R Ginbey	1.825	35
B J. Williams	1.750	36
D Turner	1.675	37
B Hough	1.500	38
J Darling	1.400	39
K Pickett	1.225	40
J Jones	1.100	41
J Cripps	1.050	42
J Williams > 19%	0.975	43
T Brockman < 49%	0.750	44
J Rotham	0.375	45
T Woewodin > 20%	0.350	46

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & foxsports.com.au

Thanks DD we knew that Riv was coming but that effort was off the charts, brilliant team game with our youngsters providing the spark around the ground. Having Max, JV, TMac, Salo, Ed,  May, Lever and Milkshake providing the hard bodies and leadership it allowed our youngsters to break the game open. Also nice to see our aggression at their players.

[WheeloRatings 1,190]

5 hours ago, binman said:

Thanks wheelo.

Coincidentally, I'm on the train to work and just downloaded the wheelo app.

Brilliant product. Great navigation. Easy to use. Visually works really well. Kudos.

A question, how are team ratings calculated (I know it's a combo of attack and defence, but how are the scores for each determined)?

Thanks binman.

The team ratings (from here) are intended to measure how many points each team is above/below average at any point in time. The ratings update each week based on whether the team performs¹ above or below expectation².

1. Expected performance in a given match is based on the two teams' ratings and a venue advantage.
2. Actual performance in a given match is based on a weighted average of the team's actual score and the score they would have kicked if they kicked at the AFL average, to lessen the effect of really accurate or inaccurate kicking. I don't use expected scores in the model as I only have this data since 2021 (my team ratings are calculated for every round since 1897), but it is kind of a rough proxy for expected scores.

For example, a team's attacking rating will go up if their adjusted score is higher than expected, and their opponent's defensive rating will go down by the same amount. While it may throw up some strange results (Sydney's rating actually went up yesterday despite losing to St Kilda, which was because Sydney scored 27 times to 19), it has been optimised for predicting match results.

The model is somewhat based on the Matter Of Stats MoSHBODS model described here if you want some light reading (although some of the specifics in this model do differ from mine):
https://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-stats-journal/2017/1/5/team-rating-revisited-a-rival-for-mossbods

[binman 44,869]

6 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

Melbourne v West Coast (Round 17, 2024)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20241706

Key Team Stats

Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Stat	For	Against	Diff
Disposal Efficiency	73.6	72.9	+0.7
Kicking Efficiency	73.8	68.0	+5.8
Metres Gained	6149	5037	+1112
Inside 50s	49	49	+0
Shots At Goal	28	20	+8
Shots Per Inside 50	57.1	40.8	+16.3
Contested Possessions	129	104	+25
Ground Ball Gets	88	68	+20
Intercepts	64	54	+10
Intercept Marks	15	20	-5
Centre Clearances	8	18	-10
Stoppage Clearances	22	17	+5
Contested Marks	14	10	+4
Marks Inside 50	21	15	+6
Hitouts	28	34	-6
Hitouts To Advantage	10	12	-2
Tackles	56	54	+2
Tackles Inside 50	6	19	-13
Def One On One Loss %	20.0	33.3	-13.3

Contested Possessions

	For	Against	Diff
Melbourne's Defensive 50
Hard Ball Get	6	4	+2
Loose Ball Get	21	9	+12
Contested Mark	1	3	-2
Ruck Hard Ball Get	0	1	-1
Gather From Hitout	4	2	+2
Free For	1	1	0
Total	33	20	+13
Melbourne's Forward 50
Hard Ball Get	4	0	+4
Loose Ball Get	12	6	+6
Contested Mark	4	1	+3
Gather From Hitout	0	1	-1
Contested Knock On	0	1	-1
Free For	2	1	+1
Total	22	10	+12
Post clearance
Hard Ball Get	11	13	-2
Loose Ball Get	52	29	+23
Contested Mark	14	10	+4
Contested Knock On	3	3	0
Free For	7	5	+2
Total	87	60	+27
Pre clearance
Hard Ball Get	3	5	-2
Loose Ball Get	22	21	+1
Ruck Hard Ball Get	5	2	+3
Gather From Hitout	9	11	-2
Contested Knock On	1	3	-2
Free For	2	2	0
Total	42	44	-2

• Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative.
• Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets.
• 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions.

Expected scores

	xScore	Score	Rushed	xWin %	xMargin	Margin	Swing
Melbourne	102.1	112	1	99%	+35.3	+54	+18.7
West Coast	66.9	58	2	1%

Team	Shots	Score	Accuracy	xScore	+/-	xSc. / Shot	Shot Rating
Overall
Melbourne	28	17.9.111	60.7%	101.1	+9.9	3.61	+0.35
West Coast	20	8.8.56	40.0%	64.9	−8.9	3.24	−0.44
General Play
Melbourne	7	6.0.36	85.7%	22.4	+13.6	3.21	+1.94
West Coast	4	2.1.13	50.0%	15.5	−2.5	3.88	−0.63
Set Position
Melbourne	21	11.9.75	52.4%	78.7	−3.7	3.75	−0.18
West Coast	16	6.7.43	37.5%	49.3	−6.3	3.08	−0.40

• xWin %: win probability based on expected scores.
• Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin.
• xScore: total expected score from all shots taken.
• +/-: total score above or below expected score.
• xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty.
• Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal.

Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores.

 

 

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Agn	Diff
1	200	177	+23
2	179	179	0
3	186	162	+24
4	199	154	+45
Match	191	168	+23

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average
Trent Rivers	23	55	26.8
Jack Viney	19	45	59.6
Alex Neal-Bullen	19	44	53.5
Caleb Windsor	17	39	33.3
Andy Moniz-Wakefield	13	35	31.5
Ed Langdon	18	33	30.8
Kade Chandler	13	30	45.4
Koltyn Tholstrup	13	30	37.8
Tom Sparrow	15	28	43.8
Christian Salem	10	28	27.1
Jake Bowey	10	25	16.6
Clayton Oliver	10	23	44.2
Jacob van Rooyen	10	23	16.8
Daniel Turner	9	21	13.4
Kysaiah Pickett	11	20	40.9
Tom McDonald	5	14	20.8
Judd McVee	6	13	14.9
Steven May	5	13	9.3
Bayley Fritsch	6	12	15.4
Max Gawn	4	11	23.1
Taj Woewodin	4	11	14.2
Jake Lever	2	5	14.8
Jake Melksham	3	5	5.0

Source: Herald Sun

Time in Forward Half

Quarter	For	Against
1	53%	47%
2	52%	48%
3	43%	57%
4	43%	57%
Match	49%	51%

Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations.

Score Sources

Summary

Category	Score	Against	Diff
Kick-in	0.1.1	0.0.0	+1
Centre Bounce	0.1.1	3.2.20	-19
Stoppage (Other)	5.1.31	2.3.15	+16
Turnover	12.7.79	3.5.23	+56

Score Source	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Kick-in	1	2.4	0	2.5
Centre Bounce	1	10.4	20	7.3
Stoppage (Other)	31	23.2	15	19.6
Turnover	79	43.1	23	46.4

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast.

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective.

Category	Region	For		Against
		Match	Season	Match	Season *
Centre Bounce	Centre	1	10.4	20	7.3
Kick-in	D50	1	2.4	0	2.5
Stoppage (Other)	D50	12	2.6	0	1.6
Stoppage (Other)	Centre	7	2.2	0	2.0
Stoppage (Other)	Wing	12	12.7	9	9.2
Stoppage (Other)	F50	0	5.8	6	6.8
Turnover	D50	19	8.8	0	7.7
Turnover	Centre	8	7.1	0	7.8
Turnover	Wing	46	21.1	23	24.2
Turnover	F50	6	6.1	0	6.8

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
D50	32	13.8	0	11.8
Centre	16	19.8	20	17.1
Wing	58	33.8	32	33.4
F50	6	11.9	6	13.6

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Defensive 50	32	13.8	0	11.8
Defensive midfield	26	19.1	10	17.8
Centre bounce	1	10.4	20	7.3
Attacking midfield	47	24.1	22	25.4
Forward 50	6	11.9	6	13.6

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast.

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season *
58	32.8	10	29.6

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast.

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2024 %	2023 %
Trent Rivers	24	83%	16.9%	3.0%
Clayton Oliver	23	79%	71.8%	81.4%
Max Gawn	21	72%	84.3%	64.9%
Jack Viney	19	66%	68.0%	72.1%
Tom Sparrow	14	48%	38.8%	44.9%
Kysaiah Pickett	7	24%	36.0%	11.2%
Jacob van Rooyen	7	24%	13.9%	7.6%
Daniel Turner	1	3%	0.5%	0.0%
Christian Salem	0	0%	16.0%	0.0%
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0%	13.7%	2.1%
Koltyn Tholstrup	0	0%	1.9%
Tom McDonald	0	0%	0.0%	5.7%
Christian Petracca			55.8%	61.1%
Josh Schache			8.3%	0.0%
Bailey Laurie			4.4%	0.0%
Charlie Spargo			4.2%	0.0%
Harrison Petty			3.9%	0.7%
Lachie Hunter			0.0%	0.2%

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2024 %	2023 %
Max Gawn	47	60%	81.4%	57.5%
Daniel Turner	16	21%	2.3%	0.0%
Jacob van Rooyen	15	19%	14.3%	13.1%
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0%	0.0%	0.0%
Clayton Oliver	0	0%	0.0%	0.1%
Steven May	0	0%	0.0%	0.0%
Tom McDonald	0	0%	0.0%	9.3%
Tom Sparrow	0	0%	0.0%	0.0%
Josh Schache			13.3%	4.1%
Harrison Petty			4.8%	2.0%
Ben Brown			0.2%	2.3%
Christian Petracca			0.0%	0.4%

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2024)	To Adv. % (2023)
Max Gawn	47	21	8	26.9%	30.1%
Jacob van Rooyen	15	5	1	24.1%	31.1%
Daniel Turner	16	2	1	50.0%
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0	0		0.0%
Tom McDonald	0	0	0		20.0%
Ben Brown				100.0%	0.0%
Josh Schache				100.0%	0.0%
Harrison Petty				31.8%	25.0%
Christian Petracca					100.0%

Opposition hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.
Bailey J. Williams	61	28	10
Jack Darling	12	5	2
Jack Williams	5	1	0

There are some very curious stats this week, but one in particular stands out.

We had more 1.1 km metres gained than the Eagles.

Which is incredible.

In previous seasons, with our forward half game that would not be that remarkable - but it is this year. I suspect it might be our biggest diff for metres gained all season.

Normally such a differential, for any club, but in seasons past  particularly us, would correlate with smashing the oppo for inside 50 and time in forward half.

But we were dead even for inside 50s and 49% to their 51% for time in forward half.

@Binmans PA, I wondered if one factor for these seemingly contradictory numbers might be related to the point you have made a few times about how deep our defence often sits this season - ie we often win the ball back deep in our defence, effectively lengthening the ground.

Thoughts?

Amy other theories?

Edited July 8, 2024 by binman

[binman 44,869]

32 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Thanks binman.

The team ratings (from here) are intended to measure how many points each team is above/below average at any point in time. The ratings update each week based on whether the team performs¹ above or below expectation².

1. Expected performance in a given match is based on the two teams' ratings and a venue advantage.
2. Actual performance in a given match is based on a weighted average of the team's actual score and the score they would have kicked if they kicked at the AFL average, to lessen the effect of really accurate or inaccurate kicking. I don't use expected scores in the model as I only have this data since 2021 (my team ratings are calculated for every round since 1897), but it is kind of a rough proxy for expected scores.

For example, a team's attacking rating will go up if their adjusted score is higher than expected, and their opponent's defensive rating will go down by the same amount. While it may throw up some strange results (Sydney's rating actually went up yesterday despite losing to St Kilda, which was because Sydney scored 27 times to 19), it has been optimised for predicting match results.

The model is somewhat based on the Matter Of Stats MoSHBODS model described here if you want some light reading (although some of the specifics in this model do differ from mine):
https://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-stats-journal/2017/1/5/team-rating-revisited-a-rival-for-mossbods

Brilliant, thanks wheelo.

My interest in stats and data is really about the story they tell, particularly when triangulated.

I'm a Luddite when it comes to the mathematical aspect, but if you don't understand how they are calculated it's impossible to know what story they tell.

What does the data say about your strike rate for accurately predicting results?

Another q - am I right to assume the player ratings you use are the champion data ratings (I might have asked you that before, apologies if I have).

And how do determine the predicted ratings?

[Adam The God 30,762]

1 hour ago, binman said:

There are some very curious stats this week, but one in particular stands out.

We had more 1.1 km metres gained than the Eagles.

Which is incredible.

In previous seasons, with our forward half game that would not be that remarkable - but it is this year. I suspect it might be our biggest diff for metres gained all season.

Normally such a differential, for any club, but in seasons past  particularly us, would correlate with smashing the oppo for inside 50 and time in forward half.

But we were dead even for inside 50s and 49% to their 51% for time in forward half.

@Binmans PA, I wondered if one factor for these seemingly contradictory numbers might be related to the point you have made a few times about how deep our defence often sits this season - ie we often win the ball back deep in our defence, effectively lengthening the ground.

Thoughts?

Amy other theories?

Yep, I think so.

We also reverted back to the 2022 chaining by handball off half back.

We managed to get out a few times. As we did against Brisbane. I'm hoping we can do it against better opposition. 

[WheeloRatings 1,190]

1 hour ago, binman said:

Brilliant, thanks wheelo.

My interest in stats and data is really about the story they tell, particularly when triangulated.

I'm a Luddite when it comes to the mathematical aspect, but if you don't understand how they are calculated it's impossible to know what story they tell.

What does the data say about your strike rate for accurately predicting results?

Another q - am I right to assume the player ratings you use are the champion data ratings (I might have asked you that before, apologies if I have).

And how do determine the predicted ratings?

I use two models for predicting results - one based purely on the teams and the other which takes into account the players playing in the match (and uses the players' predicted ratings you're asking about).

Here are the overall results between 2013 and now (the period that the player model is available):

Mean absolute margin error:
Standard model: 27.0 points
Player model: 26.3 points
(The average match margin was 32.8 points)

% of tips correct
Standard model: 69.5%
Player model: 70.4%

Squiggle aggregates a range of AFL models, including "Punters" which is an aggregate of odds from a number of betting agencies. My model's average margin error the last few seasons (since my model has been on Squiggle) has been ranked quite high on the Squiggle leaderboard and quite close to the punters' performance.

---

You are correct, the player ratings on my site are the Champion Data player ratings. The predicted ratings are a weighted average of a player's rating in past matches, weighted towards more recent matches and more recent seasons. It is limited to a maximum of a player's last 75 matches and 4 seasons, but more recent matches are weighted much higher.

I also take into account time on ground in past matches to ensure that a player who was sub or injured isn't punished unfairly for their lower rating in that match. The predicted rating is reduced for the named sub given they'll most likely play less than half the match. For example, Woewodin's predicted rating was 6.2 last week but 2.8 this week.

---

Hopefully the above helps!

[binman 44,869]

1 hour ago, WheeloRatings said:

I use two models for predicting results - one based purely on the teams and the other which takes into account the players playing in the match (and uses the players' predicted ratings you're asking about).

Here are the overall results between 2013 and now (the period that the player model is available):

Mean absolute margin error:
Standard model: 27.0 points
Player model: 26.3 points
(The average match margin was 32.8 points)

% of tips correct
Standard model: 69.5%
Player model: 70.4%

Squiggle aggregates a range of AFL models, including "Punters" which is an aggregate of odds from a number of betting agencies. My model's average margin error the last few seasons (since my model has been on Squiggle) has been ranked quite high on the Squiggle leaderboard and quite close to the punters' performance.

---

You are correct, the player ratings on my site are the Champion Data player ratings. The predicted ratings are a weighted average of a player's rating in past matches, weighted towards more recent matches and more recent seasons. It is limited to a maximum of a player's last 75 matches and 4 seasons, but more recent matches are weighted much higher.

I also take into account time on ground in past matches to ensure that a player who was sub or injured isn't punished unfairly for their lower rating in that match. The predicted rating is reduced for the named sub given they'll most likely play less than half the match. For example, Woewodin's predicted rating was 6.2 last week but 2.8 this week.

---

Hopefully the above helps!

70% is impressive. Interesting that both models are so close.

[Demon Dynasty 17,169]

8 hours ago, DeeZone said:

Thanks DD we knew that Riv was coming but that effort was off the charts, brilliant team game with our youngsters providing the spark around the ground. Having Max, JV, TMac, Salo, Ed,  May, Lever and Milkshake providing the hard bodies and leadership it allowed our youngsters to break the game open. Also nice to see our aggression at their players.

The youngsters certainly shone yesterday DZ but of course we need to temper our enthusiasm a tad given the quality of the oppo or lack thereof so to speak.

However, i particularly liked the games of Kolt (first half), Rooh, Turner, Moniz and Windsor.

Turner in particular i felt some of his 1% ers, contests in the air, plus getting down the opposing end to help out a few times was impressive.  Limited in terms of the number of contests he did get to but i just felt he showed very positive steps yesterday vs prior weeks other than his 1st game as a forward.

Windsor showed so much maturity for his age i thought.  Some of those gathers, his general attack on the oppo plus the finish.

And of course Rooh was pretty enormous in patches i thought.  Really attacked the drop, played in front quite a bit and could've easily kicked 6 or so.

All positive signs but of course there's a more serious contender waiting just around the corner   We'll need to stick a hard tag on Merrett who i thought was the difference against the Pies.  If he has a game anywhere near that look out.  I'd give Chandler a role here throughout the game and just tell him to hassle him out of it at every contest and make sure he's always goal side once the ball enters their 50.

[WheeloRatings 1,190]

2 hours ago, binman said:

70% is impressive. Interesting that both models are so close.

The player model uses the team ratings as an input. The idea was to improve the standard model by incorporating player information, and the team ratings was a significant variable in the player model. That is, it couldn't be replaced by the player information alone.

[Demon Dynasty 17,169]

Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 17, 2024 vs H&A Season 2023

Player	2024 Rating	2024 Rank	2023 Rating	% Change vs 2023	2023 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2023
C Petracca	4.476	1	4.707	-4.9	2	1
Max Gawn <	4.170	2	3.350	24.5	7	5
Steven May	3.626	3	3.213	12.9	8	5
C Oliver	3.578	4	5.002	-28.5	1	-3
C Salem <	3.488	5	2.993	16.5	12	7
T Rivers	3.486	6	3.696	-5.7	5	-1
Jake Lever <	3.384	7	3.131	8.1	9	2
Jack Viney	3.248	8	3.707	-12.4	4	-4
T McDonald	3.070	9	2.054	49.5	27	18
Ed Langdon	3.063	10	3.057	0.2	10	0
A N-Bullen	3.047	11	2.532	20.3	20	9
Judd McVee	2.953	12	2.320	27.3	22	10
A Tomlinson	2.915	13	2.915	0.0	14	1
A M-Wakefield	2.588	14	-	-	-	-
J Bowey <	2.556	15	2.820	-9.4	15	0
K Pickett	2.554	16	2.101	21.6	26	10
T Sparrow	2.458	17	2.811	-12.6	16	-1
T Woewodin < >	2.365	18	1.406	68.2	34	16
B Howes	2.348	19	-	-	-	-
C Windsor <	2.276	20	-	-	-	-
M Hore	2.273	21	-	-	-	-
J Billings < >	2.202	22	-	-	-	-
J V Rooyen	2.148	23	2.170	-1.0	25	2
K Chandler	2.125	24	2.265	-6.2	23	-1
J Melksham*	1.875	25	1.599	17.3	32	7
K Tholstrup	1.863	26	-	-	-	-
L Hunter* <	1.838	27	2.939	-37.5	13	-14
B Fritsch	1.838	27	2.324	-20.9	21	-6
B Laurie* < >	1.605	29	2.235	-28.2	24	-5
S McAdam*	1.483	30	-	-	-	-
D Turner	1.403	31	1.825	-23.1	31	0
Ben Brown <	1.391	32	1.941	-28.3	28	-4
H Petty <	1.311	33	2.718	-51.8	19	-14
C Spargo*	1.200	34	1.886	-36.4	29	-5
J Schache*	0.700	35	1.525	-54.1	33	-2
K Brown* >	0.125	36	-	-	-	-
Team Rating	66.12		69.86	-5.3
Top 6	22.82		24.43	-6.6
Bottom 6	13.92		15.17	-8.2

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed out at least once or more (player rating could be somewhat comprised)

> Subbed in at least once or more (player rating could be somewhat comprised)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

[Demon Dynasty 17,169]

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2024/07/11/where-merretts-huge-pies-outing-ranks-among-essendons-best-champion-data/