FORGET TWO POINTS, THIS ONE'S WORTH EIGHT

[Demonland 66,930]

by The Oracle

Unbelievable isn't it? The entire football world has just spent almost the whole week ruminating on the result of one game of football and in particular whether Sunday’s affair at Launceston should have been a draw or whether the chocolates should have been awarded to Fremantle.

The protagonists have employed a vast array of eminent business, legal and other professionals to slug it out over two premiership points and yet tomorrow night Melbourne will be slugging it out for a little over two hours but hopefully exactly eighty minutes of playing time for stakes that are four times as valuable - eight premiership points.

That's right, the Melbourne v Geelong match at the MCG is an eight point game. Assuming it's not a draw (and let's face it, you can overturn a draw with consummate ease these days) the winner will most likely move into the top half of the ladder, the loser will sit with the also rans. That’s how important a game such as this is to the contestants in what is turning out to be an incredible football season.

And yes, in describing this football season I use the word "incredible" because who would have thought a little month ago that six of last year's finalists (Geelong, St. Kilda, Sydney, Melbourne, Port Adelaide and the Kangaroos) would be in negative territory in terms of win/loss ratios at this stage of the year and that not one of them will have moved into a positive position by Sunday night? This fact underlines how important a win is when you're pitted against another contender for a finals position. A win would have you inside the eight but only marginally at best. A loss really puts you behind the eight ball.

Of course, the Demons have been behind that eight ball since the opening match of the season when they lost a game they were expected to win. So far this year, they have struggled to produce the standard of football that was expected from them during the pre season and after the opening two games of the Nab Cup Competition. Even then, the Demons couldn't register a convincing victory and now that they have started to win games again, they've all been heart stoppers.

That's a timely thing for the Melbournefc which is dedicating this game to the Heart Foundation. The club is calling upon supporters to wear red for this clash in recognition of the valuable work the Foundation does within the community.

The team has shown a fair bit of heart over the past fortnight but the problem is that its players keep falling over with injury and right at the present time, a number of Demons – especially talls – are missing from action due to one injury or another. Names like Clint Bizzell, Brad Miller, Alistair Nicholson, David Neitz, Paul Johnson, Paul Wheatley and Ryan Ferguson represent a huge proportion of the club's taller timber and they’re all out this week. Another important forward Russell Robertson was limping around the "G" in the last quarter of last week’s game so it’s probably just as well that the forecast for the game is for rain.

The Cats, on the other hand have some handy footballers coming back from injury including Steven King and Kent Kingsley who will surely stretch the Demons in the height department. The Demons' answer has been to bring yet another youngster, Lynden Dunn, into the side for this week after Matty Bate's promising debut last week. Dunn impressed in the wet at centre half forward for the Zebras and is a lively youngster who has come a long way this season.

Still, his selection also highlights the fact that it's a young, inexperienced and perhaps undermanned Melbourne that is coming up against a team that, a month ago, was one of the flag favourites, a team which won the pre season competition at AAMI Stadium against opposition which a week earlier had given the Demons a thumping, and a team that opened up 2006 by thrashing Brisbane and the Kangaroos in consecutive weeks at Skilled Stadium. And how can we forget the fact that the Cats also served out a humiliation to an ailing Melbourne in last year's Elimination Final. I'm hoping that the Demons who suffered from that drubbing remember enough about it to motivate them to overturn the result this time around in a game that might not be as important as an elimination final but given the eight points at stake, is a must win.

It's that hope more than anything else that leads me to tip Melbourne to win by the barest of margins. The expected wet conditions will suit the right down to the ground and I reckon they have the heart to upset their tormentors from last year in a game that will be all about heart. Demons by 1 point (and that's without the aid of the AFL Commission).

MELBOURNE v GEELONG

Friday, 7:40pm AEST, MCG

Where & when - Friday May 5 at the MCG, 7.40pm.

TV & Radio

TV Channel Nine - Melbourne (8.30pm), Adelaide (8.30pm), Perth (8.30pm), Sydney (11.15pm), Brisbane (11.15pm)

Radio 3AW ABC and MMM

Head to Head - Melbourne 82 Geelong 116 Drawn 1

The last time they met - Geelong 18.8.116 def Melbourne 9.7.61 at the MCG; Second Elimination Final 2005.

MELBOURNE

B Bate Carroll Whelan

HB Yze Rivers Brown

C Green Bruce Sylvia

HF McLean Robertson Davey

F McDonald Holland Pickett

FOLL White Godfrey Johnstone

I/C Bartram Dunn Jamar Moloney

EMG Bell C Johnson Read

In Dunn McLean

Out Miller (groin strain) Wheatley (hamstring)

New Lynden Dunn (Calder Cannons)

GEELONG

B Milburn Scarlett Hunt

HB Rooke Mooney Egan

C Enright Bartel Tenace

HF G.Ablett Kingsley Kelly

F Gardiner Ottens Chapman

FOLL King Corey Ling

I/C D Johnson Riccardi Slade Wojcinski

EMG Balke Mackie Playfair

In King Kingsley Riccardi

Out Balke Callan Prismall (arm)

Field umpires Kennedy Meredith Woodcock