THE HOPE by The Oracle

[Demonland 72,178]

THE HOPE by The Oracle

A new season always brings new hope in the continuing cycle of AFL football and for 2017, it would seem that Melbourne is one of the clubs, along with Saturday's opponent St Kilda that has been designated for improvement and a potential breakthrough into the top echelons of the competition.

So intense has been the speculation and excitement surrounding the two clubs that we're hearing predictions of a sell out crowd at Etihad Stadium for the twilight event. The numbers might not end up being of Adele proportions but the very thought of a full stadium for such an event would hardly have been contemplated just a few years ago when both sides were AFL cellar dwellers. Remember, it was only a few seasons ago - 2014 in fact - that the Saints finished in last place and the Demons were second last. Thanks to James Frawley jumping ship to Hawthorn, the clubs shared the first three selections in that year's national draft.

It's also worth reflecting on the fact that the team that finished next to last, and just ahead of those two, was Greater Western Sydney. Today the Giants are flag favourites whilst most of the pundits have St Kilda and Melbourne in the mix for finals berths.

And so, one of the two major aspirants for the AFL's up and comer of the year award is going to be disappointed come Saturday night. The task of selecting which it will be is a difficult one because there is little current form that can be used as an indicator.

The Saints finished 2016 full of running and overtook the Demons on the ladder standings late in the season to finish in 9th place with 12 wins, 10 losses, the same as flagging finalists North Melbourne but with an infer percentage of 95.7%.

Had Melbourne won its last two games, it could well have made the finals but instead it hit the wall with an almighty bang, suffering a disastrous loss to lowly Carlton before capitulating at Simonds Stadium to Geelong by a massive 111 points. As a result, the Demons' finished 11th with a record of 10 wins and 12 losses and their percentage plummeted below the century mark to 97.6%.

Both teams fielded strong teams throughout the pre-season and won two out of three JLT games. There wasn't much between them on their respective performances but in any event, you can't place too much store on the pre-season.

Or can you?

This all leaves me wondering how on earth is it possible to select a team to win that lost its last real game of football by more than eighteen goals against a side that it hadn't beaten for over a decade?

I've found a way and will reveal all shortly.

THE GAME

St Kilda v Melbourne at Etihad Stadium Saturday 25 March 2017 at 4.40pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall  St Kilda 91 wins Melbourne 118 wins 1 drawn

At Etihad  St Kilda 8 wins Melbourne 3 wins

Past five meetings St Kilda 5 wins Melbourne 0 wins

The Coaches Richardson 0 wins Goodwin 0 wins

MEDIA

TV - Fox Footy Channel, Live at 4.30pm

RADIO - Triple M 3AW ABC ABC Grandstand

THE BETTING

St. Kilda to win - $1.83 to win Melbourne to win - $2.00

THE LAST TIME THEY MET 

St. Kilda 15.20.110 defeated Melbourne 11.8.74   in Round 17, 2016  at Etihad Stadium

Melbourne dominated the first 1½ quarters but it was all St Kilda until the final break. The Demons surged in the last and got to within a goal but seemed unsettled when Jesse Hogan was controversially free kicked and reported after appearing to be pushed from behind. A goal at that time could easily have sustained his team's momentum but instead they faded in the face of the hard running, fast finishing Saints' surge. In the end the result actually flattered Melbourne because of their opponents' wayward kicking for goal. Nick Reiwoldt, as he often does, put in a blinder against Melbourne and another veteran Leigh Montagna was best on the ground. Jack Viney was head and shoulders above any other of his teammates on the day.

THE TEAMS

ST KILDA

B: Jarryn Geary, Nathan J. Brown, Jimmy Webster
HB: Jack Newnes, Jake Carlisle, Dylan Roberton
C: Shane Savage, David Armitage, Nick Riewoldt
HF: Luke Dunstan, Josh Bruce, Maverick Weller
F: Jade Gresham, Tim Membrey, Nathan Wright
FOLL: Tom Hickey, Jack Steele, Jack Steven
I/C: Jack Billings, Sam Gilbert, Paddy McCartin, Sebastian Ross
EMG: Blake Acres, Billy Longer, Jack Lonie

NEW: Nathan Brown, Jake Carlisle, Jack Steele

MELBOURNE

B: Jayden Hunt, Tom McDonald, Joel Smith
HB: Bernie Vince, Oscar McDonald, Jake Melksham
C: Jordan Lewis, Jack Viney, Billy Stretch
HF: Christian Petracca, Jesse Hogan, Angus Brayshaw
F: Alex Neal-Bullen, Sam Weideman, Jeff Garlett
FOLL: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Clayton Oliver
I/C: Neville Jetta, Christian Salem, Jack Watts, Mitch Hannan
EMG: Tomas Bugg, James Harmes, Jake Spencer

NEW: Mitch Hannan, Jordan Lewis, Jake Melksham, Joel Smith

The teams are in and, in the case of St Kilda, there were no surprises. They have virtually their full squad in place with the exception of Leigh Montagna (who was their best player when the teams last met). 

The same cannot be said of Melbourne which goes into the game having a number of automatic or close to automatic selections out injured or not selected because they are underdone in terms of match preparation. These include the likes of Dom Tyson, Sam Frost, Dean Kent, Aaron vandenBerg and Bomber recruit Michael Hibberd. 

The selection of Jack Watts ended the media circus surrounding his less than impressive return from the break in the team's pre-season and the Dees gain some much needed experience and backbone in the form of Jordan Lewis from Hawthorn and Jake Melksham (Essendon). They have also included some X factor in the form of high flyer Mitch Hannan and former basketballer Joel Smith. Both could be regarded as surprise selections with Smith a last minute promotion from off the rookie list and Hannan from Footscray VFL having been unseen in the JLT rounds.

With both teams now well advanced through their rebuilds, comparisons have been made in their development but the Saints have had the advantage in recent years of having an edge in the number of seasoned veterans when the teams met in the recent past. 

However, with the inclusion of Lewis, the Demons have gained a player on the field who has a wealth of experience playing in and leading winning teams; a factor that cannot be underestimated when the majority of those in the side are so youthful. He joins Nathan Jones and Bernie Vince as the elder statesmen in a team brimming with the excitement of youth but which has now had two or three seasons of grounding in their legs. 

The form in the pre-season of players like Jesse Hogan, Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, Angus Brayshaw, Jayden Hunt, Christian Salem and young co-skipper Jack Viney was encouraging. Despite injuries in the backline, the club is still able to field a strong defence highlighting the team's improvement in depth. All Australian ruckman Max Gawn has been given a lighter run through the pre-season and is ready to take on the challenge against possibly the one ruckman against who he lowered his colours last year. And Jack Watts really has something to prove in this game and throughout the year.

They say records are meant to be broken. In 2015, the Demons broke Geelong's long winning streak against them and in 2016 they did the same to Hawthorn. On Saturday, St Kilda's streak will go the same way. 

Melbourne by 28 points