A Day at the Races

[Macca 17,066]

1 wins and 1 doesn't run a drum.  I will take that as 1 from 2 for win bets ends up being profitable. 

Multi extinguished but only a small outlay so no bother.

Well done Deeza ... you are in hot form!

 

[Macca 17,066]

Thanks for the lazy 20 Laddies ... Winx supreme.  Didn't have much to beat but she's just too good anyway.   We really are privileged to witness such greatness.

Happy Clapper 2nd again but for the connections,  2nd prizemoney is probably just fine.  5 times now I believe that Happy Clapper has run 2nd to Winx.  A 3rd & a couple of 5ths as well?  The horse must be tired of seeing Winx fly past!

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Awesome run by Ossie....sprouted wings. I would say Craig Williams left the run too late.

[Macca 17,066]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Awesome run by Ossie....sprouted wings. I would say Craig Williams left the run too late.

I thought Osborne Bulls was going to get up but 'In Her Time' just lasted.  Unlucky but the winner too good.  I included Osborne Bulls in an exacta so got the collect.  A good form line for the Newmarket too.

Seeing that we included Winx in the multi our strike rate for the day ended up as  4: 2 - 1 - 0

[Macca 17,066]

Sha Tin tomorrow - there are 3 feature races that have 3 hot favourites but if you're playing the exotics,  all 3 can be beaten when considering the class in the races.  As for the 3 favourites,  Beauty Generation & Dark Dream are former Australasian horses whilst Exultant hails from Ireland.

For a bit of value - 'Fifty Fifty' could run a bold race in the Silver Jubilee,  'Simply Brilliant' likewise in the Gold Cup and 'Ho Ho Khan' cannot be ruled out in the Classic Cup.  Good quality racing,  all the same.  And good luck if you're having a go.

All are Group 1 affairs ...

• Race 6 Queens Silver Jubilee Cup
• Race 7 Hong Kong Gold Cup
• Race 9 Hong Kong Classic Cup

Edited February 16, 2019 by Macca

[Macca 17,066]

9 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Ah ok. I wonder why he goes MIA some weeks. The mysterious life of JJ.

Well,  JJ hosted today from Morphettville which meant some other dude (not Adam McGrath) was giving out the tips.  But of course we want JJ's tips so it was annoying!  Other times he's just not there at all.  Could be that he's on Demonland reading the training threads - who knows? 

Interestingly,  Gator hasn't been on the 'Get On' Thursday night show at all this year (so far) ... but at least his tips are available on Racing.com (Wednesdays) 

In all seriousness,  I do rely on JJ's tips for exotics & straight-outs so I'll have to find a fall-back plan B Wadda. 

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

Well,  JJ hosted today from Morphettville which meant some other dude (not Adam McGrath) was giving out the tips.  But of course we want JJ's tips so it was annoying!  Other times he's just not there at all.  Could be that he's on Demonland reading the training threads - who knows? 

Interestingly,  Gator hasn't been on the 'Get On' Thursday night show at all this year (so far) ... but at least his tips are available on Racing.com (Wednesdays) 

In all seriousness,  I do rely on JJ's tips for exotics & straight-outs so I'll have to find a fall-back plan B Wadda. 

 

How did JJs bb go? Had a bit on this arvo....

[Macca 17,066]

10 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

How did JJs bb go? Had a bit on this arvo....

Ran 2nd ... had every chance as it got a good run.  Worth following up on though as the winner was just a bit too good.  It wins an easier race though as the race it was in yesterday was a Listed race. 

[Macca 17,066]

Winx ran 01:20.88 for the 1400m yesterday which is .30 off the track record.  And she wasn't extended by any means.  The horse is so quick I reckon she could break 01.20.00 for the 7 furlongs.  But that could really only happen if she needs to be extended

Her final (?) 3 races will be over 1600m (Chipping Norton),  1500m (George Ryder) and then the QEII Stakes over 2000m.   And there is no horse in Australia that can get near her in those 3 races.  

After yesterday I honestly believe that Winx could go on and win a 5th Cox Plate.  But the chances of the connections racing her on after this Autumn are slim.  But you never know. 

[Macca 17,066]

            Best Bet Strike Rate

                88: 35 - 14 - 12

Australian Group & Listed Races

 

And here are a couple of replays from yesterday (Apollo Stakes & Lightning Stakes) followed by a replay of the CF Orr Stakes from last Saturday.

 

 

 

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

53 minutes ago, Macca said:

Winx ran 01:20.88 for the 1400m yesterday which is .30 off the track record.  And she wasn't extended by any means.  The horse is so quick I reckon she could break 01.20.00 for the 7 furlongs.  But that could really only happen if she needs to be extended

Her final (?) 3 races will be over 1600m (Chipping Norton),  1500m (George Ryder) and then the QEII Stakes over 2000m.   And there is no horse in Australia that can get near her in those 3 races.  

After yesterday I honestly believe that Winx could go on and win a 5th Cox Plate.  But the chances of the connections racing her on after this Autumn are slim.  But you never know. 

Macca...how many Ladbrokes accounts is it possible to open? 

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Gee having another look at that Lightning Stakes, did realize Ossie really sort of missed the start and had to go around the outside of the field. Its last 70m was going 2 for 1 to every other horse.

[Macca 17,066]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Gee having another look at that Lightning Stakes, did realize Ossie really sort of missed the start and had to go around the outside of the field. Its last 70m was going 2 for 1 to every other horse.

They ran 56.69 for the 1000m too Wadda ... Osborne Bulls has really come of age after working its way through the grades.  It will probably win a G1 race soon enough but the sprint races are tough to win.

I'm not sure any of the sprinters can get near 'Nature Strip' over the 1000m or 1100m though.  NS will be running in the Oakleigh Plate next week and then the Newmarket you'd reckon.  The 1200m might test NS but it's the quickest horse in Australia up to 1100m.  Gator reckons NS is the quickest horse in the world over 1000m!

But for the others (including OB) there's also the upcoming Galaxy,  the TJ Smith,  the All Aged Stakes,  Ubet Classic,  Doomben 10,000,  the Goodwood,  the Kingsford Smith finishing off with the Stradbroke.  All Group 1's from 1100m up to 1400m for a lot of prizemoney.  

Shoals,  Viddora,  Santa Ana Lane,  Pierata,  Redzel, Le Romain,  Showtime,  and a number of other sprinters are set to return as well.  And then there are the emerging 3yo sprinters such as Sunlight,  Graff & Lean Mean Machine.

The sprint races are very very competitive.  They may decide to set Osborne Bulls for a few of the above races ... it will probably run in the Newmarket next but to win a race like the Newmarket,  a horse generally needs an ideal run.

[Macca 17,066]

'Beauty Generation' an absolute  class above up in HK (01:21.03 for the 1400m)  They can't get near it - hands & heels as well.  Formerly ran as 'Montaigne' in Australia and whilst here it ran 2nd in the Randwick Guineas & 4th in the BMW (as a 3yo)

Unlike Winx,  Beauty Generation is a front-runner so if they were ever to meet,  I'd fancy Winx to cruise past but closer to the finishing line than Winx's Australian rivals.  Sadly,  because of the strict quarantine laws,  they'll never meet.

Edited February 17, 2019 by Macca

[Dee Zephyr 19,269]

Cheers @Macca @Wadda We Sing for the reports. I only watched our 3BBs races on the phone yesterday and heard the Winx race whilst on the road. Managed to finish slightly in front for the day thanks to Amphitrite. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Some cracking races coming up at Caulfield this weekend.

https://www.racenet.com.au/racing-form-guide/caulfield-20190223/all-races

Two x group 3s, Three x group 2s and Three x grp 1s

Doesnt get much better than that folks.

...and your team from A Day at the Races will be standing by to bring you all the action and up to the minute reports....stay tuned to this thread!

Edited February 20, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 17,066]

11 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Some cracking races coming up at Caulfield this weekend.

https://www.racenet.com.au/racing-form-guide/caulfield-20190223/all-races

Two x group 3s, Three x group 2s and Three x grp 1s

Doesnt get much better than that folks.

...and your team from A Day at the Races will be standing by to bring you all the action and up to the minute reports....stay tuned to this thread!

One of the better days racing on the calendar Wadda

Any number of short-priced favourites though ... same deal for the first half of the card at Rosehill.  A total of 10 favourites at prohibitive odds or not much better. 

My strategy will be to include the shorties into exactas but hope that that the better value horses can pip the shorties.  They won't all win and in fact maybe 5 of the 10 won't salute.  Which ones?  Anyone's guess!

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

3 hours ago, Macca said:

One of the better days racing on the calendar Wadda

Any number of short-priced favourites though ... same deal for the first half of the card at Rosehill.  A total of 10 favourites at prohibitive odds or not much better. 

My strategy will be to include the shorties into exactas but hope that that the better value horses can pip the shorties.  They won't all win and in fact maybe 5 of the 10 won't salute.  Which ones?  Anyone's guess!

Agree Macca, which ones!!?

I think Alizee is getable. Was a soft 7 over 1200 last time at Rosehill. 1400 at Caulfield is a different story. Its 1 from 2 over the distance and that was at Randwick in a grp 2, whereas Hartnell is 2 from 2 at Caulfield over the distance (Grp 1 & Grp 2) and is 17/1...wasnt that far behind at Rosehill. Id be throwing it in any multiples $4.50 plc...Land of Plenty is a big threat also.

Also Nature Strip is akin to Winx under 1200 and is still 2.20 but of course will come in come raceday. Still a good pick now tho.

Just some early thoughts.....

Edited February 21, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 17,066]

1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Agree Macca, which ones!!?

I think Alizee is getable. Was a soft 7 over 1200 last time at Rosehill. 1400 at Caulfield is a different story. Its 1 from 2 over the distance and that was at Randwick in a grp 2, whereas Hartnell is 2 from 2 at Caulfield over the distance (Grp 1 & Grp 2) and is 17/1...wasnt that far behind at Rosehill. Id be throwing it in any multiples $4.50 plc...Land of Plenty is a big threat also.

Also Nature Strip is akin to Winx under 1200 and is still 2.20 but of course will come in come raceday. Still a good pick now tho.

Just some early thoughts.....

My tips are generally 3.00 or better ...in a multi Nature Strip is a good pick but really only for multi punters.

The shorties are no-brainers but if we're happy with 10 -1 up to a 15-1 collect then maybe we should just put forward the no-brainers.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

26 minutes ago, Macca said:

My tips are generally 3.00 or better ...in a multi Nature Strip is a good pick but really only for multi punters.

The shorties are no-brainers but if we're happy with 10 -1 up to a 15-1 collect then maybe we should just put forward the no-brainers.

I think its a bit of both really. We have had quite a few picks around 2-2.50....its ok as long as they win. When they dont it always feels like a wasted pick i guess. I prefer the better odds but you need an anchor i reckon sometimes.

[Macca 17,066]

28 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I think its a bit of both really. We have had quite a few picks around 2-2.50....its ok as long as they win. When they dont it always feels like a wasted pick i guess. I prefer the better odds but you need an anchor i reckon sometimes.

I am not really a multi punter in terms of it being a predominant way of punting.  For instance,  I won on 2 of our picks last week,  missed on the other 1 and missed on the multi (as we all did)

So I prefer it when there is value on offer on any of the picks.  But that's just me

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

4 hours ago, Macca said:

I am not really a multi punter in terms of it being a predominant way of punting.  For instance,  I won on 2 of our picks last week,  missed on the other 1 and missed on the multi (as we all did)

So I prefer it when there is value on offer on any of the picks.  But that's just me

Its always a fine line between ability and value thats for sure Macca, and you need both...

Best Bet:

Caulfield Race 7 No 1 Hartnell (Plc) $4.40

[Macca 17,066]

56 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Its always a fine line between ability and value thats for sure Macca, and you need both...

Best Bet:

Caulfield Race 6 No 1 Hartnell (Plc) $4.40

Race 6 is the Futurity Wadda ... you posted the Hartnell race as race 7

But you're spot on Wadda ... I'm going to go for the value pick as a value pick can be used for all sorts of reasons ... small win bet,  the place,  in quaddies and in all the exotics.  I liked your pick last week (Osborne Bulls) because if the horse got into the finish I was highly likely to win (it didn't have to win)

But I should emphasise that my choice of best bet is my preference only ... others can do whatever they like.  Nice discussion mate.

Best Bet

Caulfield  Race 7 No.11  Athiri  $8.50 ($2.70 the place)

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

5 minutes ago, Macca said:

Race 6 is the Futurity Wadda ... you posted the Hartnell race as race 7

But you're spot on Wadda ... I'm going to go for the value pick as a value pick can be used for all sorts of reasons ... small win bet,  the place,  in quaddies and in all the exotics.  I liked your pick last week (Osborne Bulls) because if the horse got into the finish I was highly likely to win (it didn't have to win)

But I should emphasise that my choice of best bet is my preference only ... others can do whatever they like.  Nice discussion mate.

Best Bet

Caulfield  Race 7 No.11  Athiri  $8.50 ($2.70 the place)

Oh yeah, Race 6....was a bit distracted when i was doing that, cheers.

I cant edit it now however as the edit button has now disappeared as it does...

Your pick is for the win......? Good pick.

Edited February 21, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 17,066]

15 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Oh yeah, Race 6....was a bit distracted when i was doing that, cheers.

I cant edit it now however as the edit button has now disappeared as it does...

Your pick is for the win......? Good pick.

Use the pick anyway you like with these value picks Wadda ... if win & place I'd recommend 6 units the win,  4 units the place (money back for 2nd or 3rd)  In the exotics I'd mark it on top with 2 others,  in a quaddie as part of a multiple choice and in a multi - take your pick - win or place. 

But to make a choice - place preferred in a multi ($2.70) but the horse can win and Gator has picked it to win as well and that has reinforced my thoughts.

As for Deeza's pick last week ... I got the win collect & the exacta (which paid surprisingly well) with 'Amphitrite'  ... so 3 collects with our 3 picks.  Overall,  I was down a little bit last week but our picks got me close to breaking even.  So the value was there. 

Gee I like the $4.40 for Hartnell (place) ... seems overs considering the class of the horse and it's ability to get into the finish.