The ones that got away: The could've, should've, but didn't games

[praha 11,240]

I am filthy about yesterday's game, mainly because it's yet another game we lost on the pack of a [censored] patch of play at a pivotal moment. Yeah it was error-riddled but I think scores from turnovers was fairly even. Ultimately we lost the game in a single terrible patch. 

Looking back over the past three seasons, there have been far too many matches like this. I am not necessarily pointing the finger at anyone, be it Roos, the coaching group more broadly, or leaders on the field, but I think it is a combination of a number of things.

It's clear that it's an "improvement" -- we're limiting the amount of games we lose, the losing margin, and how long we are actually bad for -- it's a slow transition. But it's fascinating just looking at this. In 2014, we were 5-10 minutes away in 8-9 matches from winning. We finished equal-last literally on the back of too many 5-10 minute brain fades. Astonishing. This club continues to find new ways to lose.

There's certainly a lot more in the way of "positives", but it really does feel like we're taking the path back to success through the dark, eerie, cursed forest, and willingly. Having five goals kicked on you in five minutes at the start of a quarter is not a skill issue. It's a mental issue, and it's not "coming out to play". 

 

EDIT: I've listed the Adelaide and Geelong wins for some balance, because yeah, it shows what the team is capable of, what the leaders can do.

 

2014

Round 1 vs St Kilda: A Tyson goal early in the last gave us hope in a close game, but we then gave up a school-boy easy goal moments later that ended the game. 

Round 5 vs Gold Coast: We dominate play in the last, but waste opportunities. It takes us 14 minutes to score the first goal of the quarter, and suddenly we're within less than two goals. Gold Coast was playing sloppy and had sprayed three shots on goal. On cue, Gold Coast kicks two goals in two minutes between the 18th and 20th minutes to finish us off. 

Round 7 vs Adelaide: We hold on after a late Adelaide onslaught for a fantastic win.

Round 8 vs Bulldogs: Despite leading at three-quarter time we give up six last-quarter goals to lose by 18 points.

Round 11 vs Port: We hit the lead half-way through the fourth only for Port to pile on four straight goals to win by 4 goals.

Round 15 vs Bulldogs We led at 3QT and for long patches in the fourth, but gave away lazy free kicks and silly goals to lost by less than a kick.

Round 18 vs Port: Lead in the fourth and, on cue, Port kicks the sealer with only minutes left.

Round 19 vs Brisbane: We led at 3QT but score only one goal to Brisbane's six in the last (they had five to 3QT).

 

2015

Round 10 vs Collingwood: Shocking first quarter, Cloak domination, and loose defenders make it a game of catch-up that eventually Collingwood walks away with.

Round 11 vs. St Kilda: No comment.

Round 12 vs Geelong: Up there with the Adelaide win. A good victory where we held on and played 120 minutes. 

Round 15 vs Essendon: Heavy favourites against a depleted Essendon. Tight game except for a disgraceful third-quarter where Essendon's VFL players strolled into goal. 

Round 19 vs North Melbourne: Shocking first quarter sets the tone for a game of catch-up, which North eventually gets away with.

Round 21 vs Carlton: Despicable first half in which the league's worst team gave Melbourne a football lesson.

 

2016

Round 2 vs Essendon: Heavy favourites against a team that won't win again for the season. Ran over in last quarter when game was there to be won.

Round 11 vs Hawthorn: Poor first quarter set the scene for a game of catch-up.

Round 15 vs Adelaide: Shocking 10-minute patch in third quarter destroyed Melbourne's own momentum. 

Edited July 4, 2016 by praha

[Chris 2,892]

31 minutes ago, praha said:

I am filthy about yesterday's game, mainly because it's yet another game we lost on the pack of a [censored] patch of play at a pivotal moment. Yeah it was error-riddled but I think scores from turnovers was fairly even. Ultimately we lost the game in a single terrible patch. 

Looking back over the past three seasons, there have been far too many matches like this. I am not necessarily pointing the finger at anyone, be it Roos, the coaching group more broadly, or leaders on the field, but I think it is a combination of a number of things.

It's clear that it's an "improvement" -- we're limiting the amount of games we lose, the losing margin, and how long we are actually bad for -- it's a slow transition. But it's fascinating just looking at this. In 2014, we were 5-10 minutes away in 8-9 matches from winning. We finished equal-last literally on the back of too many 5-10 minute brain fades. Astonishing. This club continues to find new ways to lose.

There's certainly a lot more in the way of "positives", but it really does feel like we're taking the path back to success through the dark, eerie, cursed forest, and willingly. Having five goals kicked on you in five minutes at the start of a quarter is not a skill issue. It's a mental issue, and it's not "coming out to play". 

 

EDIT: I've listed the Adelaide and Geelong wins for some balance, because yeah, it shows what the team is capable of, what the leaders can do.

 

2014

Round 1 vs St Kilda: A Tyson goal early in the last gave us hope in a close game, but we then gave up a school-boy easy goal moments later that ended the game. 

Round 5 vs Gold Coast: We dominate play in the last, but waste opportunities. It takes us 14 minutes to score the first goal of the quarter, and suddenly we're within less than two goals. Gold Coast was playing sloppy and had sprayed three shots on goal. On cue, Gold Coast kicks two goals in two minutes between the 18th and 20th minutes to finish us off. 

Round 7 vs Adelaide: We hold on after a late Adelaide onslaught for a fantastic win.

Round 8 vs Bulldogs: Despite leading at three-quarter time we give up six last-quarter goals to lose by 18 points.

Round 11 vs Port: We hit the lead half-way through the fourth only for Port to pile on four straight goals to win by 4 goals.

Round 15 vs Bulldogs We led at 3QT and for long patches in the fourth, but gave away lazy free kicks and silly goals to lost by less than a kick.

Round 18 vs Port: Lead in the fourth and, on cue, Port kicks the sealer with only minutes left.

Round 19 vs Brisbane: We led at 3QT but score only one goal to Brisbane's six in the last (they had five to 3QT).

 

2015

Round 10 vs Collingwood: Shocking first quarter, Cloak domination, and loose defenders make it a game of catch-up that eventually Collingwood walks away with.

Round 11 vs. St Kilda: No comment.

Round 12 vs Geelong: Up there with the Adelaide win. A good victory where we held on and played 120 minutes. 

Round 15 vs Essendon: Heavy favourites against a depleted Essendon. Tight game except for a disgraceful third-quarter where Essendon's VFL players strolled into goal. 

Round 19 vs North Melbourne: Shocking first quarter sets the tone for a game of catch-up, which North eventually gets away with.

Round 21 vs Carlton: Despicable first half in which the league's worst team gave Melbourne a football lesson.

 

2016

Round 2 vs Essendon: Heavy favourites against a team that won't win again for the season. Ran over in last quarter when game was there to be won.

Round 11 vs Hawthorn: Poor first quarter set the scene for a game of catch-up.

Round 15 vs Adelaide: Shocking 10-minute patch in third quarter destroyed Melbourne's own momentum. 

You forgot Round 3 2016 Nth Melbourne. Got miles down, came back to lead at half time. Second half was close and lost by 4 points. 6 or 7 goals from frees to North sealed the game (be it crap umpiring or bad play from us, either way it cost us)

[Spirit of 26 261]

Seem to remember a game out at Waverley back in 1987. 

[praha 11,240]

46 minutes ago, Chris said:

You forgot Round 3 2016 Nth Melbourne. Got miles down, came back to lead at half time. Second half was close and lost by 4 points. 6 or 7 goals from frees to North sealed the game (be it crap umpiring or bad play from us, either way it cost us)

I wanted to, but didn't considering the conditions on the day. I thought we were very good against North, even after the first quarter. 

[dazzledavey36 55,390]

One word.

Leadership..

Where the Fk is it??

[Little Goffy 14,661]

Thanks Praha, respectable effort to put that together for everyone's reference. 

We all feel it, and it's a serious problem.

Remember this goes back at least as far as 2006, when losing to Carlton twice in a season (they won only one other game for the season) cost us a spot in the top 4.

Sigh. 

 

[deanox 10,016]

We have a young list, the youngest when considering the 22 playing each week, in terms of both games and experience. 

 

Other young improving sides over the years (the dogs the past couple of years, PA in 2014, hawthorn on the way up, etc) all had a core of senior payers with age, experience and leadership that  even out the inconsistency and enabled them to win those close games. 

We have Jones, Jones, Dawes and Vince older than 26 and 11 months. After that is Garlett, Jetta and Watts older than 24 and 6 months. 

Everyone else is a baby. 

Only Gawn, VDB and TMac were older than 23 and 2 months. 

12 players yesterday aged just on 23 or younger. 

 

Only five 100 game players in the side. And seven 50 game players. 

That's 10 with less than 50 games experience and 8 less than 40 (ie in their first 2 or 3 seasons).

 

The best part is we finally have 25 players we are happy to let play AFL footy each week. And it is a young group and apart from Vince we won't lose anyone to retirement in the next three years and apart from N Jones (apologies to Dawes and M Jones) we won't lose anyone valuable to retirement in the next 6 years. 

 

When the team matures and gets experience we will turn the corner and win those games. I'm expecting it to happen next year but it may happen the year afterwards. But it will happen with the list we have.