In the age of free agency and player movements, you're kidding yourself if you're trying to plan for 4-5 years time. In terms of our own backline, I can see T.Mac, Frost and O. Mac covering key back posts in the future.

We need to improve the class of our medium sized/small backs, and that can come from within, as the Eagles have done. I disagree that Garland is a cool head, and would be happy to move him on. I also think that we could do better than Jetta, but happy to have him playing next year. A full year of Salem will help, and I'd be rotating the likes of Vince and Kent off half back.

I think you are kidding yourself if you aren't planning 4 or 5 years ahead, every other team will be.

If Frost goes forward, as I think he will, that leaves us with one key back, a potential key back, and zero depth. not a great position to be in. Not sure what Jetta has to do to make you happy either, or Garland for that matter. Both could be better but so could the other 42 players on the list.

Hey Chris great analysis

You must have more time than me and obviously more interest. Sorry to be riding off your efforts.

Did have a bit of time free to set up the spreadsheet, now it is done it is a simple case of entering the team and the stats come out for the parameters above. Have only built it for us, StKilda, and the four finalists left though.

I think you are kidding yourself if you aren't planning 4 or 5 years ahead, every other team will be.

If Frost goes forward, as I think he will, that leaves us with one key back, a potential key back, and zero depth. not a great position to be in. Not sure what Jetta has to do to make you happy either, or Garland for that matter. Both could be better but so could the other 42 players on the list.

And how many players from 5 years ago are still on our list? In 2009, our projected midfield comprised of Scully, Trengove, Gysberts, Morton, Blease and Tapscott.

great mentality mo64....

Who can be bothered talking about Scully, Morton etc. any more. Not me

Lets talk about Petracca, Bayshaw, AVB, Stretch, Harmes etc. Lets plan the next 4-5 years for them and bring in others with the same mentality

And how many players from 5 years ago are still on our list? In 2009, our projected midfield comprised of Scully, Trengove, Gysberts, Morton, Blease and Tapscott.

We are an incredibly poor example. Look at the successful teams and ask the same question. If the club not looking at what the list will look like in 5 years time then we are doomed. That doesn't mean we don't solve the issues of now, such as help for Jesse, but it does mean we need to look forward at what we will need in the future and have a plan for how to get what we need. Without that vision you end up chasing your tail and never actually get things even close to right.

great mentality mo64....

Who can be bothered talking about Scully, Morton etc. any more. Not me

Lets talk about Petracca, Bayshaw, AVB, Stretch, Harmes etc. Lets plan the next 4-5 years for them and bring in others with the same mentality

My mentality is that you don't prepare this year for the retirements of players who still have 4-5 years left. Chris' whole age profile analysis is just garbage IMO. The Bailey/Schwab era was all about long term success, and look were that got us. All we need to be focused on is getting better each year. And our football department seems to have the same philosophy. They've brought in ready made players like Vince and Lumumba who go against the 4/5 year plan, whilst also trying to pick the best player available in the draft. That player may not address the needs in 4/5 years time that Chris is talking about.

My mentality is that you don't prepare this year for the retirements of players who still have 4-5 years left. Chris' whole age profile analysis is just garbage IMO. The Bailey/Schwab era was all about long term success, and look were that got us. All we need to be focused on is getting better each year. And our football department seems to have the same philosophy. They've brought in ready made players like Vince and Lumumba who go against the 4/5 year plan, whilst also trying to pick the best player available in the draft. That player may not address the needs in 4/5 years time that Chris is talking about.

Bollocks mo, you seem to have missed the point completely.

Bringing in the players the club has was done to provide leadership and a good example to the young players. This was done to ensure good habits were put in place for long term sustained success as we didn't have many experienced players at the club and the ones we did have may were not up to it in a lot of cases. If you listen to the club talk they speak a lot of long term sustainable success, that would indicate a fair amount of forward planning is going on.

You keep living in the land of no vision for the future and grab what you can with no eye on the ramifications though, it wont get you anywhere but hey, we would have some small spikes in performance that might make you happy.

Quoting anything to do with Schwab is laughable too, he was an abject failure on too many measures to count, long term planning being one of them. If you want to look at where it has worked look at the successful clubs of the past decade. Bring in talent when needed, recruit what they will need in future years, sound familiar?

Edited September 22, 20159 yr by Chris

yup

Great effort R n B.

You've assumed Petracca is going to make it like Brayshaw. I hope so too and that your selection is vindicated. But we are Melbourne.

We need pace, pace and more pace. Against GWS we looked slow and static.

Another big forward option so we are not one dimensional with Jesse.

Someone like - er - Mitch Clarke.

Weideman.but we need another pick to get him, or we trade in a player with a swap of picks... so we get player x, & a pick around 10 - 12 range.

Here's my 22 guys.

B Dunn Frost Garland

HB Jetta T. McDonald Salem

C Lumumba Viney Tyson

HF Brayshaw Dawes Kent

F Garlett Hogan Howe

Fol Gawn Vince N. Jones

Int Watts Petracca Trengrove Vandenberg

Here's what I think should go in and out....

OUT:

-Cross (retirement).

-Jamar (delisted).

-McKenzie (delisted).

-Bail (delisted).

-Fitzpatrick (delisted).

-Riley (delisted).

-J.Hunt (on to rookie list).

-Player from trade (Howe, Garland, Watts, Dawes, Grimes, Toumpas, M.Jones).

-Player from trade (Howe, Garland, Watts, Dawes, Grimes, Toumpas, M.Jones).

I've numbered my preferences in order I'd trade into club below.

IN:

-Pick 6: Key Fwd or Mid (Weideman or Parish or Tucker) *I would like to see us trade this pick.

-Pick 25: Mid or Half back or (McKay in ruck if available).

-Pick 26*: Key Back *assuming we get a compo pick for Garland.

-Pick 43: Jake Lovett (Father Son).

-Pick 61: Vandenberg (Rookie Elev).

-Pick 79: Harmes (Rookie Elev).

-Free Agent: Best midfielder possible. (1.Dangerfield, 8.Suckling, 11.S.Selwood, 25.J.Grant) or Trade.

-Trade: See below.

-Trade: See below.

-------

-(Rookie): Midfielder or Ruck.

-(Rookie): J.Hunt.

Trade:

2.Treloar, 3.Bennell, 4.O'Meara?, 5.L.Jetta, 6.Dixon, 7.Henderson*, 9.Redden*, 10.Zorko?, 12.K.Jack, 13.Seedsman, 14.M.Crouch, 15.Mayes, 16.J.Anderson, 17.Freeman, 18.Hampton*, 19.Yarran*, 20.Turner, 21.Ellis-Yolman, 22.Hrovat, 23.Aish, 24.Melksham, 26.Adcock, 27.A.Moore, 28.J.Walker.

*: Contracted but requested trade.

?: Contracted but reportedly unhappy.

Edited September 23, 20159 yr by xman97

Swap Lumumba for Garland, swap Trengove(fit) for Watts, find replacements for Stretch and Harmes who aren't up to it ATM, trade Howe

Not sure that any of these suggestions make sense, especially your lack of faith in Stretch and Harmes!

Trade Dunn and Dawes, they will be of a reasonable value to any other club in their premiership window.

Acquire at least two quality midfielders or up coming yougsters through free agency or trade. These include Dangerfield, S Selwood, Prestia, Bennell, Treloar, Aish, Bell, T Mitchell, B Jack, Z Jones (clearly some are very hard to acquire).

Gold Coast, GWS, and Sydney (with their trade restrictions) should be of easier pickings.

The loss of Dunn should be covered by Frost, Garland (if retained) and get more games into O Mac.

Dawes' role can easily be covered by Pedersen at no expense.

Dawes would get very little value, and he's a hard trade because of his contract. I'd keep Dunn until Frost can string together a season with consistent football. If we get rid of Dunn and Frost can't get on the pitch then we're way too small down back.

Pederson is better than Dawes but he's still an average football. What you have suggested with Dawes and Dunn is basically putting all of our eggs in one basket.

Below is a table of the spread of games experience by the finalists when they last played vs our best team (as I have described above). The difference in experience is vast and shows that if we can hold the young core together for another 50-100 games then we can start to expect to be up there.

Melbourne Hawthorn Freo WC NM

0-50 12 1 1 4 4

51-100 3 4 7 4 3

101-150 3 6 9 10 6

151-200 2 3 0 4 4

200+ 2 8 5 0 5

Edited September 24, 20159 yr by Chris