AFL Round 4

[titan_uranus 25,176]

It's somewhat hard to care about the games this round other than ours, but there have been some unbelievable results.

Our game's margin is going to be the closest, incredibly. 23 points. The GWS-WB game is the only other with a margin under 30 points. I thought Geelong-West Coast, Sydney-North, St Kilda-Adelaide and Fremantle-Essendon would all be good/close games, and I thought Gold Coast would get closer than they did.

I think we've all jumped the gun on the Eagles. Their wins have been against the Dogs, us and St Kilda, nothing to write home about. Not sure they're the team the hype is making them out to be.

Sydney is in trouble I think. They have Fremantle next week, who have found their form by obliterating Essendon, so they could be 1-4. Not sure whether they're good enough this year, and the rumbles about culture and the like will continue.

St Kilda's finally copped what they deserve; they are as bad as we are and I couldn't stand watching us first, then GWS, lose games they should have won.

[45HG 1,559]

Certainly a strange old round.

I wonder what the highest margin is for the lowest winning margin of a round.

23 feels high. I think the cap on rotations combined with 3 on the bench is making for very tired players. Especially injuries during a game are now even more of a hindrance than ever before.

[Whispering_Jack 31,144]

I don't think the AFL could possibilty be happy with some of the one-sided results. The consequences are small crowds, less revenue and the effect on the TV rights. Not good for the game if this continues to spiral out of control.

[SaberFang 7,151]

Are attendances again down year-on-year this round? Has to be a very worrying trend for the AFL. Although they're financially viable from the healthy TV rights deal, if ratings continue to plateau the next bidding war might not prove as fruitful for their coffers.

[Whispering_Jack 31,144]

Two things I take out of round 4 which are Melbourne related and which come from watching some replays.

1. Melbourne's improved form cannot be explained only in the context of Carlton's poor effort. In other words, I believe there is definite improvement the way the team is currently structured and there is room for substantially more improvement with time, experience and the influx of personnel from the injury list and a few currently at Casey;

2. The influence of Sandilands the beast of Fremantle suggests to me that a fully fit Max Gawn could be similarly built up into a dominant ruckman over the next couple of years by which time he could well be a significant weapon for the club (disclaimer - I am a sponsor but that did not influence my opinion).

[Machsy 2,858]

My predictions:

Richmond v Brisbane:

Tigers looking to bounce back, but I don't rate them this year after we accounted for them without much fuss in the NAB cup.

I'll back Brisbane being the home team, and with Deledio missing.

Looking forward to watching Aish and Lewie Taylor for the home side.

Lions by 14.

Coolingwood v North:

I have trouble taking North seriously, but Collingwood are like a yoyo.

Still, I think Pendlebury's class will be the difference.

North don't have a lot of class, and miss Swallow.

Magpies by 22.

Sydney v Fremantle:

Freo have a handful of injuries and the Swans are off the boil, but jeez they are due to return to form soon.

Still, I'll go for Freo. Ruck dominance will play a part.

And the swans have been shocking, especially up forward, where Freo are strong.

Dockers by 33.

West Coast v Port Adelaide:

Eagles were very average against Geelong, missing some good players who fate conspired to have healthy for when they played us.

Port are a top 6 team this year, in my eyes. Playing in Perth doesn't help though.

Still, Port to get the chocolates.

Power by 26.

Essendon v St Kilda:

The bombers are looking pretty good so far, although a few hiccups.

Saints have surprised, but I think they are running out of momentum.

Essendon to kick on as the match gets out of reach.

Bombers by 37.

Adelaide v GWS:

Giants will be stinging after handing away the match from a winning position.

As the dees used to be quite good at, they "snatched defeat from the jaws of victory."

The crows played above themselves last week also.

Giants by 19.

Melbourne v Gold Coast:

Too much midfield class for us, I think.

Ablett will remember last season's match and be keen for revenge.

I'm expecting a huge out put from him, as we spend just as much energy worrying about Swallow, O'Meara & Prestia.

Not a great blowout though.

Suns by 24.

Bulldogs v Carlton:

The blues don't have much to inspire, while the doggies have some young blokes doing their best to become household names.

Even Liam bloody Jones looked ok at times last week.

I just can't see where the improvement is going to come from at Carlton.

Haven't respected them much in recent years though, to be honest.

I think they'll drop their heads and the dogs will push on for a good win.

Dogs by 31.

Geelong v Hawthorn:

Will be hotly contested, but I feel the Hawks have saved themselves for the big matches this year.

They obliterated Freo, and I expect them to do the same after a while against a Geelong side missing a lot of run.

Hill & Smith will keep doing what they do, running all day and picking apart the cats.

Normally I'd expect Caddy to lift as he seems to like this pressure cooker style of match, but he's out of form and I wouldn't expect to see much more out of him for the rest of the season. I reckon he's done.

Rivers to be exposed here too, like in last year's finals.

Hawks by 49.

That's just my take, if anyone is interested.

Edited April 17, 2014 by Machsy

[Machsy 2,858]

Oh wait, I'm an idiot.

I thought this was for this coming round.

Should probably read the OP, etc before posting.

[Machsy 2,858]

Certainly a strange old round.

I wonder what the highest margin is for the lowest winning margin of a round.

23 feels high. I think the cap on rotations combined with 3 on the bench is making for very tired players. Especially injuries during a game are now even more of a hindrance than ever before.

I think that's why Hawthorn are cutting teams apart.

They have some truly elite runners in Bradley Hill and Isaac Smith.

Hartung won't be far behind.

[45HG 1,559]

Oh wait, I'm an [censored].

I thought this was for this coming round.

Should probably read the OP, etc before posting.

You should start a new thread with it, mate. I usually do but don't have time this week.

Start a thread and just copy paste that post.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 17,022]

Two things I take out of round 4 which are Melbourne related and which come from watching some replays.

1. Melbourne's improved form cannot be explained only in the context of Carlton's poor effort. In other words, I believe there is definite improvement the way the team is currently structured and there is room for substantially more improvement with time, experience and the influx of personnel from the injury list and a few currently at Casey;

2. The influence of Sandilands the beast of Fremantle suggests to me that a fully fit Max Gawn could be similarly built up into a dominant ruckman over the next couple of years by which time he could well be a significant weapon for the club (disclaimer - I am a sponsor but that did not influence my opinion).

On this point (and apologies if it's commented on elsewhere), the difference between the style of game we played against St Kilda and WCE on the one hand and Carlton on the other is stark. All that kicking backwards and to the fat side which drove supporters nuts in the first two rounds just about disappeared against Carlton. Was it (a) because of the addition to the structure of marking forwards in Dawes and Frawley, (2) better adherence to Roos' game plan or (3) a Carlton-specific tactic to take advantage of their weaknesses or (4) all of the above?

Whatever the reason, it reduced our possession count but improved our performance. I'll take it.

[Machsy 2,858]

You should start a new thread with it, mate. I usually do but don't have time this week.

Start a thread and just copy paste that post.

I did plan to do that, but I momentarily lost the will to live after realising my mistake.

Only took a little while to get it back.

Didn't want to steal your thunder... but I will.

[45HG 1,559]

I did plan to do that, but I momentarily lost the will to live after realising my mistake.

Only took a little while to get it back.

Didn't want to steal your thunder... but I will.

Glad you bounced back - good recovery time

[Machsy 2,858]

Just had to walk away for a bit and have a laugh!