In today's Age, Gary Lyon undertakes a comprehensive analysis of both the Carlton and Essendon line ups in an attempt to untangle the result of this afternoon's contest. He goes through the usual key match ups, crucial players, number of first round picks,leadership etc. (incidentally if he did this with the Demon side against either of these teams I suspect we would come out pretty well - we match up well with both of them IMO).

One of the crucial measures he used is who are the bottom six in each team and how do they compare. Whilst this is not a new idea, it is worth asking this about the Demons, first for tomorrow's side (based on current form to influence games, not potential), and secondly for our best 22 at the end of 2013 season, (based on skills/form when they are top of their game). Below for what it is worth are my views:

Tomorrow's side.

Backs Clint Bartram James Frawley Luke Tapscott

Half backs Jack Trengove Colin Garland Jared Rivers

Centreline Rohan Bail Jack Grimes Jordan Gysberts

Half forwards Jamie Bennell Brad Green Austin Wonaeamirri

Forwards Aaron Davey Lynden Dunn Liam Jurrah

Followers Mark Jamar Brent Moloney Colin Sylvia

Interchange Nathan Jones Stef Martin Cale Morton

Sub: Jack Watts

Emergencies Addam Maric Ricky Petterd James Strauss

Bottom six: Bartrum Bail Bennell Dunn Watts Martin

Interestingly, when you look at it this most of these players predominate in the mid field, or at least rotate there, which might say something about our delivery and pressure. Unfortunately, IMO this list hardly matches up with Lyon's bottom six for the Blues and the Bombers:

(Saturday's Age)

Bottom six

Increasingly, the ''bottom six'' are becoming more critical to the outcome of games. With constant rotations, the side that bats deepest, and can maintain a high quality and consistent 18 on the field for the longest period of time, has a greater chance of success.

I have rated the bottom six of each side as follows:

Essendon Carlton

N. Lovett-Murray E. Curnow

K. Hardingham S. Hampson

S. Crameri S. White

B. Howlett J. Laidler

S. Lonergan A. Collins

B. Prismall N. Duigan

VERDICT: Essendon.

I like the look of the Bomber group. Hardingham, Crameri and Howlett improve with every outing; Lonergan is comfortable and holds his own in the centre square; and Prismall is an experienced midfield campaigner.

Curnow has started very well, while Laidler, White and Duigan will improve but have looked a little out of their depth at times and Hampson hasn't made a fist of his opportunities. Collins needs time to develop.

Incidently, for what it is worth, my top six in tomorrow's team would be:

Jamar Maloney Sylvia Frawley Jurrah Green

Demon's Best 22 at end of 2013 season

Backs Jordie McKenzie James Frawley Sam Bleeze

Half backs Jack Trengove Colin Garland Jack Grimes

Centreline Luke Tapscott Tom Scully Jordan Gysberts

Half forwards Ricky Pettard Jack Watts Austin Wonaeamirri

Forwards Aaron Davey Mark Jamar Liam Jurrah

Followers Max Gawn Brent Moloney Colin Sylvia

Interchange Nathan Jones Stef Martin Cale Morton

Sub: Rohen Bail

This leaves out Dunn Bartrum Bennell and assumes Green and Rivers have been retired or delisted (a la Cam Bruce). I envision as Mark jamar gets older and Max Gawn gets bigger and his game matures, Gawn will become first ruck and will rotate with both Jamar and Martin, principally with Martin who will also pinch hit in key position back.I have left out Jack Viney as i think it would probably be a year too early for him.

This leaves the bottom six from this team IMO as:

McKenzie Bleeze Wonna Bail Martin Morton

Assuming a further 50 games into each player, this makes a much stronger bottom six than curretly, indeed an immensely talented one, all goes well for the future IMO.

My top six for this side i think by then will be:

Sylvia Watts Scully Trengove Jurrah Frawley

What do others think?

Edited April 16, 201114 yr by DeesPower

I found this quite difficult and I think a lot of peoples will be very different.

It's very hard to judge as we have such a young list, and this list could change week to week.

For me - Watts, Wonaeamirri, Bennell, Bail, Morton, Gysberts.

Watts - This kid is being played every game at the highest level, this is the best way to fast track his development, and I totally support this. But I doubt anyone could say that he deserves his spot each week at this point in time.

Bennell - Simply does not impact a game enough. Goes missing when the going gets tough. Does some lovely cameos and has a good game every now and then.

Wonaeamirri - Has been injured and hasn't spent enough time on the ground to be consistent over the past few years. If he was a little more accurate last week I would have found it hard to put him here.

Bail - I'm always glad to see him get a game, but like Bennell, does not have a big enough impact on the game.

Morton - His best would see him off this list. But his injuries/form puts him in here by default. Looking forward to seeing him return to his best this year.

Gysberts - This was a very hard one. His output has been great so far. And defiantly deserves to be getting a game. But his youth, and size have swayed me.

I know a lot of people will put Bartram in instead of Gysberts. But people easily forget that Bartram is our tagger and is not suppose to get a lot of the ball. Also Dunn plays a defensive role, but I could understand if people have him in the list at the moment. The umpires hated him last week.

Yes, our 'bottom 6' tomorrow would be populated with many of the kids that should be top 6 in 3 years time.

It would be impossible to predict players 16 to 22 in 2013, it's hard enough to predict the top 6 in 2013...

Yes, our 'bottom 6' tomorrow would be populated with many of the kids that should be top 6 in 3 years time.

It would be impossible to predict players 16 to 22 in 2013, it's hard enough to predict the top 6 in 2013...

I would argue that Melbourne are in quite a unique position compared to most other teams.

Most other teams have at least 4-5 really premium quality players (even the bottom 4 teams do!) As a result, the differentiating factor between the top and bottom teams is often depth- the quality of their bottom 6 players

However, our problem is NOT the quality of our bottom 6 players. In fact, our bottom 6 is pretty strong and is made up of teenagers who are only going to improve.

Our real problem is listing our TOP 6. For years this has been our problem. Our top 6 simply do not compare to the top 6 of other teams. We have not had a 'star' of the comp for decades and this continues to be the case.

What we are crying our for isn't depth, we are crying out for Scully, Trengove, Morton, Watts, Grimes or Jurrah to become in the top 10 players in the aFL

I would argue that Melbourne are in quite a unique position compared to most other teams.

Most other teams have at least 4-5 really premium quality players (even the bottom 4 teams do!) As a result, the differentiating factor between the top and bottom teams is often depth- the quality of their bottom 6 players

However, our problem is NOT the quality of our bottom 6 players. In fact, our bottom 6 is pretty strong and is made up of teenagers who are only going to improve.

Our real problem is listing our TOP 6. For years this has been our problem. Our top 6 simply do not compare to the top 6 of other teams. We have not had a 'star' of the comp for decades and this continues to be the case.

What we are crying our for isn't depth, we are crying out for Scully, Trengove, Morton, Watts, Grimes or Jurrah to become in the top 10 players in the aFL

Spot on.

Spot on.

yep, nail on the head right there

yep, nail on the head right there

agreed

agreed

I've outlined the top six now and in three years time. Tell me if you think with three years maturity and game numbers they can win a premiership. I big ask i know. Clearly the powers that be at the club think so....

Surely, that is the crucial question.

IMO I think the Dons are front runners, and do not have the cattle or the coach to win a premiership. They will be there or thereabouts for several years, but will be essentially upper to mid list for that period. By being there they will not acquire the elite to break through. Similarly Carlton. Both clubs suffer from what i would term "performance deficit" ie their powerful elite supporters expect immediate success which leads their coaches to go for quick short term fixes. They are escatic with Hird because they believe he has got them back to their "natural" position ie born to rule. For them to win a flag they would need to take a few steps back (difficult with the current drafting rules) in order to build a premiership team, and make no mistake this team is not a premiership team but designed to buy James Hird and Mark Thompson time. IMO they will be in the 8, maybe the top 4, but will ultimately turn out to be like the Bulldogs and Saints ie just fall short.

They have not systematically built an elite list like us. Neither of them have and their collective prides won't let them fall back to do so either.

The question for us then is quite simple: do our brilliant kids stack up better than their brilliant kids in three years time?

For me, and i know i am committed and probably biased, I think a mature Demon list will do it in 2014 or 15, before the Suns era kicks in, and make no mistake it will kick in. Carlton and Essendon will both fall short in my opinion, and then be left in no man's land.

Edited April 16, 201114 yr by DeesPower

I would argue that Melbourne are in quite a unique position compared to most other teams.

Most other teams have at least 4-5 really premium quality players (even the bottom 4 teams do!) As a result, the differentiating factor between the top and bottom teams is often depth- the quality of their bottom 6 players

However, our problem is NOT the quality of our bottom 6 players. In fact, our bottom 6 is pretty strong and is made up of teenagers who are only going to improve.

Our real problem is listing our TOP 6. For years this has been our problem. Our top 6 simply do not compare to the top 6 of other teams. We have not had a 'star' of the comp for decades and this continues to be the case.

What we are crying our for isn't depth, we are crying out for Scully, Trengove, Morton, Watts, Grimes or Jurrah to become in the top 10 players in the aFL

Agreed.

Interesting initial post though and a fun thread to read. Don't disagree much with the initial post.

Agreed.

Interesting initial post though and a fun thread to read. Don't disagree much with the initial post.

In three years time IMO we will have at least 5 players in Mike Sheahan's top 50. We will need that to win a premiership.