calluses?

...oh, I get it.

No, I've got nothing.

I was thinking that you were wrong, but I had a look through the last decade of first round draft picks:

2009 - Daniel Menzel

2008 - Mitch Brown

2007 - Harry Taylor

2006 - Joel Selwood

2005 - Travis Varcoe

2004 - Traded for Ottens

2003 - Kane Tenace

2002 - Andrew Mackie

2001 - James Bartel

Funny, it seems that you are right. Mackie was their 'super smokie'. Tenace was a solid pick, but a bust. Bartel was a solid pick. Selwood was solid. Menzel was.

It seems that, when they were at the top, they moved away from that. It backs up your theory where they kept picking up good players until they got to the top. Then they took Taylor to fill a gap and Brown for the future. The other way to look at it is that Geelong is probably now trying to get some talent on their list to rebuild after their golden era. At the top of their power, they just had to keep their good players together - so they didn't need player 31 and were able to draft for the post-2010 era.

So what would each team be drafting for? Geelong is probably drafting for 2018. St Kilda may still be drafting for 2011-12, especially given that their overall talent is thin, although high at the top end. Carlton would probably draft for 2011-14 and go safe, to prived Judd support. Collingwood isn't drafting at all. Richmond probably do need to get that quality of their list somewhere, given that they have Riewoldt, Deledio and Cotchin, so they'll probably go safe. North is hard to pick up on because they've got a lot of good ordinary players, but nothing really at the top end. Do they take a risk by trying to get a star? Maybe that's the time where you really do need to take the risk. Interesting, then, that they took Cunnington last year.

I don't think we're in a position where we need to throw Hail Marys now. We have top end talent - we just need to develop it and surround it with class.

I don't think Geelong will be drafting for 2018, if I was them I'd think I had a good chance in 2011. Much will depend on whether they think Chapman and Bartel can recapture/reproduce close to their best but the Cats were really only slightly off the pace and to throw in the towel when you are one of the best three, considering how hard flags are to win, would be brave (although I agree it could be right).

Chris Scott said they're contenders in 2011 and he doesn't believe in re-building, the cycle or premiership window - he says a team can always be in the top 8. I reckon that might be true but that team may never win a flag. It will be fascinating to see if Geelong and Sydney can win another flag in the next 5 or so years. I think if everything went right for Geelong (and went wrong for some other teams) they could win the 2011 flag but I reckon from then on they start to progressively lose key personnel - Ottens, Scarlett, Mooney, Ling, Chapman, Enright and Corey. While Johnson, Bartel, Kelly, Mackie, Taylor, Varcoe and Selwood can keep them in the 8, they cannot win them flags.

I think St.Kilda has a wider window - they lose the rucks King and Gardiner who are key to their game plan but the next oldest are Hayes and Milne and they have a couple ofyears left, then there's a couple of years gap to Riewoldt, Fisher and Kosi who will all still be around in 2014. IMO St.Kilda need to draft ready-to-go certainties and go for it. I might even rookie Travis.

Chris Scott said they're contenders in 2011 and he doesn't believe in re-building, the cycle or premiership window - he says a team can always be in the top 8. I reckon that might be true but that team may never win a flag. It will be fascinating to see if Geelong and Sydney can win another flag in the next 5 or so years. I think if everything went right for Geelong (and went wrong for some other teams) they could win the 2011 flag but I reckon from then on they start to progressively lose key personnel - Ottens, Scarlett, Mooney, Ling, Chapman, Enright and Corey. While Johnson, Bartel, Kelly, Mackie, Taylor, Varcoe and Selwood can keep them in the 8, they cannot win them flags.

I think St.Kilda has a wider window - they lose the rucks King and Gardiner who are key to their game plan but the next oldest are Hayes and Milne and they have a couple ofyears left, then there's a couple of years gap to Riewoldt, Fisher and Kosi who will all still be around in 2014. IMO St.Kilda need to draft ready-to-go certainties and go for it. I might even rookie Travis.

I reckon Trapper is a good fit at St.Kilda and if they were 2 draft him as a mature age rookie he could do a Stewie Dew.

Wouldn't be surprised in the least if the Saints rookied Travis Johnstone.

Based mine on if I was picking a teamfor the next 10 years - gets pretty tough based on potential and Ive been a bit tough on guys like Pettered and Garlans, but note Im a subscriber to the theory that midfields win flags..

Watts

Scully

Grimes

Frawley

Trengove

Jurrah

Morton

Gysberts

McKenzie

Blease

Pettered

Bennell

Strauss

Garland

Tapscott

Wonaeamirri

Gawn

Fitzpatrick

Jetta

Spencer

Bail

Maric

McNamara