He\'s being doing exactly that so far and we want him to continue.

You have been unable to come up with any measures for recontracting him next year because like me you want to see more development.

We're definitely in the same boat with regards where we want to go.

As I said, I don\'t employ AFL coaches so I\'m not sure how they\'re judged, but I\'m sure it\'s more detailed than the things we\'ve been talking about. I\'m sure there are intangibles there too. How have we been judging him so far? Given the talk from all management, Stynes down, it hasn\'t been on wins.

Rogue\'s argument is that we\'ll be better placed late 2010 than we are now to make a call.

rpfc and I ask \"how much better\" and rpfc points out we may cause an undesirable change of strategy to occur.

If Bailey thinks this is his last year then it\'s very reasonable that he will push for wins above all else if you can\'t give him a better metric.

Around 50% more knowledge on what we\'d have now. Flippant, I know

I think this is the strongest argument for recontracting DB now.

However, as I\'ve said, I disagree that a win-at-all-costs approach would be in Bailey\'s self-interest.

First, he simply doesn\'t have the cattle to win many games.

Second, I doubt the Club would be impressed by Bailey tossing out the plan and started putting himself first.

EDIT: The forum software has broken he above part of the post

List Bailey's KPIs for 2010 then ...

What are they for 2011?

Enough to give him another 36 months?

Again with the posturing that it\'s either one now or three then..!

It just interests me that other clubs have taken a LOT less than 3 + years to rise well off the bottom and push into / just out of the 8.

I'm just talking about on field here.

Have you looked at our list?

What you'd call our stars - which weren't AFL stars IMO - were all either injured and/or past it and all our reasonable but not particularly good players were culled.

Examples from the former group include players like White, Neitz, Yze and from the latter include players like Brown, Godfrey and Holland.

This left a heap of kids and we've been getting younger ever year. Conversely, most other sides have a few quality older players they can use while they rebuild.

As for concrete KPIs - how would we measure? If it is opinion, well that is subjective and hardly scientific, and unlikely to change inside 6 months. If it is a hard and fast '6 wins' measurement, does that not paint us into a corner?

This just seems like an argument that could be applied to any sort of KPI judgement, and could thus be applied to a scenario where we've recontracted DB for one extra year and then have to judge him again at the end of 2011...

And, finally, flippantly saying that all I care about is 'how the media/'footy world' sees us' and then stipulating that any extension should involve the opinion of said 'footy world' or AFL Industry Experts (whoever the hell they are - hello, Robert Walls) is flagrant hypocrisy.

I haven't made this case but it seems to me there's a distinction between your scenario (oh no the Herald Sun is pressuring us after a poor start to the season) and getting the opinion of industry experts (don't we, and other Clubs, call on industry experts to help select a Coach?).

It just interests me that other clubs have taken a LOT less than 3 + years to rise well off the bottom and push into / just out of the 8.

I can't think of another club who have had a complete rebuild, such as ours. Our problem is that we haven't had any A grade veterans on our list already (ala Hawthorn with Crawford) and hvae literally built from scratch. St Kilda is potentially a reasonable template for us. They built from basically nothing in the early 2000s and only now is it starting to pay off. Yes, they went close in the mid 2000s, but they were really only pretenders then. Riewoldt and Kosie were less developed and experienced then, but now having played 100 games or there abouts, they are nicely poised to take a premiership somewhere during the next few years. We can hopefully expect the same, but it will take time. We won't rise as dramatically as some people think, by just adding top draft picks, they need time to develop.

I can't think of another club who have had a complete rebuild, such as ours. Our problem is that we haven't had any A grade veterans on our list already (ala Hawthorn with Crawford) and hvae literally built from scratch. St Kilda is potentially a reasonable template for us. They built from basically nothing in the early 2000s and only now is it starting to pay off. Yes, they went close in the mid 2000s, but they were really only pretenders then. Riewoldt and Kosie were less developed and experienced then, but now having played 100 games or there abouts, they are nicely poised to take a premiership somewhere during the next few years. We can hopefully expect the same, but it will take time. We won't rise as dramatically as some people think, by just adding top draft picks, they need time to develop.

they werent pretenders. the got run over the top of Sydney in a prelim who won the flag that year, and lost a nail bitter to Port who went on to win the flag as well. I think they are a better team now then they were then but they were the real deal just needed a bit of luck

Good teams make their own luck.

Good teams make their own luck.

so St Klda werent a good them this year. You need luck to win a flag. Not many injuries etc. Look at Hawthorn you cant say they weren't lucky last year, they clearly werent the best team in the comp

This just seems like an argument that could be applied to any sort of KPI judgement, and could thus be applied to a scenario where we've recontracted DB for one extra year and then have to judge him again at the end of 2011...

But I will concede the KPIs of ladder position, wins, and percentage in 2011. I don't think that 2010 is the "D-year" that someone has already posted. Our toddlers are not developed and have not been exposed to AFL. We need to expose them in 2010 but it will not get us closer to wins.

I haven't made this case but it seems to me there's a distinction between your scenario (oh no the Herald Sun is pressuring us after a poor start to the season) and getting the opinion of industry experts (don't we, and other Clubs, call on industry experts to help select a Coach?).

That's my scenario?!

I don't think you give me enough credit. Schwab and the board will make this difficult decision, with or without pressure from outside the club. Personally, I believe that pressure from fans will take their toll if we start poorly, and don't be naive enough to think - firstly, that Schwab and Co. won't yield to those baying for blood, and secondly, that Bailey won't change his approach if he feels his position is threatened.

Why, as a fan of the MFC, do I have to take it on 'good faith' that the coach will continue the development process that he has put in place?

so St Klda werent a good them this year. You need luck to win a flag. Not many injuries etc. Look at Hawthorn you cant say they weren't lucky last year, they clearly werent the best team in the comp

They were a better side this year. They made the Grand Final, which they couldn't do in previous years. They were incredibly lucky to get there though. The Bulldogs game might have gone either way, but they willed themselves over the line.

You cannot go in with a 12 month extension at any stage next year. It would be a startling lack of faith.

I reiterate, 24 or 36 months will be given if he is re-signed during 2010.

Why aren't we allowed to put pressure on Bailey again? He has had 7 wins in two years and we're treating him with kid gloves. I would wait until his contract is up before making any snap decisions. I understand we can't use the past two years as evidence against him, but there's no reason we can't use all of next year to solidify our opinions. If there is still some doubt at the end of his contract, why not offer him a 12 month extension and tell him the pressure's on? If he has shown the same sort of improvements in developing the list as he did this year, offer him another two years. There's no need to rush this, it's not as though other clubs are scrambling over each other to get thier hands on Bailey and if we don't show enough improvement, we are well within our rights to turn the heat up. I'm sure the club and Dean can handle the media heat, it's thier job they'll need to keep level heads under the media pressure if they want to be good at it.

You want stability within the club though. If Bailey's contract is up in the air, it may well cause rumblings within the playing group. What's the point? Give him the extension now, as we won't be able to truthfully tell until the end of 2011. Squash any chance of instability within the club and we'll be more likely to succeed.

To compare what Plough attempted/accomplished with his 5 year plan to whatis currently happening at Melbourne is superficial. At the end of this draft period the amount of change is hardly comparable. In 2 years we will have revitalised over 50% of the list...quite incredible.

Effectively in the great scheme of things Melbourne realy only gets to go out and start winning properly and for the right reasons come season 2010. He's (Bailey ) only allowed one year to accomplish any real lift ??? This isnt TV where shows stay or fal on the back of topical popularity this is footbal where progres is measured in seasons.

I can only presume that when Bailey sold the club on him as the choice of coach that he must have pointed out necessity to rebuild/restock first then work

towards continued sustained successand that would take a period of time. We will have a veryr young team that needs games in their legs.

The club musst thought 3 years initally was prudent in order to allow Bails to establish his bonefides without overcommitting and now that after 2 he has shown his ability to do the hard yards he ought to be allowed to build the team properly.

If he was starting from scratch 2 years ago I would agree with waiting til seaons, but he effectively started from behind scratch.

The whole question is a bit of a moot point anyway.

We're not going to know if a coach can coach until they get close or win us a flag.

We'll know if they're not up to it if they can't take us deep into the finals by 2013.

But we wont really know if we have the development and gameplan until we are actually serious premiership contenders.

The next coaching contract we give needs to be the one that takes us into the finals, I don't think mid-late next year we're going to know if Bailey will do that because we're odds on to finish bottom 4 again next year. If we make good progress in 2011 - that means get out of the bottom 5 and our direction generally looks good I'd look at 2 year extension with a 3rd year option for Bailey at the end of 2011. I'd expect us to make finals in 2012 and we'd need to win a final in 2013 for the option to be automatically extended into 2014. That would give him a fair tilt at a flag - we'd want to be serious contenders (or winners) by 2014.

Melbourne should have extended Weetra's contract after two years, it just wasn't enough time and it was clear that he was sticking to a plan to help Melbourne secure draft picks.

Melbourne should have extended Weetra's contract after two years, it just wasn't enough time and it was clear that he was sticking to a plan to help Melbourne secure draft picks.

but seriously...cream is still cream and it always rises ,,,e.g. Jurrah .. you just have to move the cream to somewhere safe for the time being

Bump.

Prescient.

Ooh, I forgot to mention this. Last night on The Footy Show, Hutchy mentioned that Melbourne is going to extend Bailey's contract by 1 year around March/April next year. The decision seems to have been made already, from the way Hutchy sounded. But if they were so certain on him coaching in 2011, why not sign him now?

Close.

You cannot go in with a 12 month extension at any stage next year. It would be a startling lack of faith.

So it's a lack of faith ?

I think an extension now is a good move; having initially (last year) preferring to see how he'd go by mid-year.

The last two years have been total re-build and some development; I see this year as further development with some improvement. In a nutshell.

So it's a lack of faith ?

I think an extension now is a good move; having initially (last year) preferring to see how he'd go by mid-year.

The last two years have been total re-build and some development; I see this year as further development with some improvement. In a nutshell.

Well spotted. I should have said 'next season' rather than 'next year.'

Those that want to wait until mid-year are, as Nasher says, giving themselves only the window of three months of footy to make a very big decision.