A premiership quality forward line

[sylvinator 96]

I tried to take a deeper look at forward lines of the premiership contending sides...

Geelong: 9 goal kickers over 20 goals

Mooney, Stevie J- 40ish

Hawkins, Chapman, Stoke, Byrnes- 30ish

Gary Ablett, Matt Rooke, Varcoe- 22ish

StKilda: 4 goal kickers over 20 goals

Riewold- 68

Kochitzki and Milne- 45

Shnider- 30

Bulldogs: 8 goals kickers over 20 goals

Akermanus- 40

Johnson, Hill and Hahn- 32

Higgins- 27

Gilbee, Welsh and Gia- 20ish

Collingwood: 7 goal kickers over 20 goals

Anthony- 48

Davis- 34

Lockyer-30

Medhurst, Cloke, Dick and Didak- 20ish

Hawthorn- 3 goal kicker over 20

Franklin- 67

Roughead- 50

Rioli- 21

Adelaide- 4 goal kickers over 20

Porps- 51

Tipett- 51

Knights- 42

Walker- 23

-------

There are 2 major types of teams... equally effective.

1) One team relies on 2 forwards to score almost all there goals... this type of team is risky if one of those forwards goes down... e.g. Brissy with Brown/Bradshaw, Hawthorn with Franklin/Roughy, Stkilda with Reiwold/Kozi, Carlton with Fev.

2) Other teams spread their goals more evenly, but still have at least 2 players capable of kicking 40+ goals... see Geelong, Adelaide, Bulldgos and Collingwood.

The point i'm really trying to show is that is doesn't really matter what type of forward it is kicking your goals, they can be 184cm tall (Porplesia) or 198cm tall (Kozi)... what is far more important is how many players you have on your list that are capable of kicking 20, 30, 40 or even 50 goals per season!

Melbourne's forward line potential- (in my opinion)

Potential 40+ goal a year players- Watts, Jurrah, Bate

Potenital 30 goal a year players- Pettard, Wonaeamirri

Potential 20 goal a year players- Sylvia, Davey, Trengove*, Jamar, Jetta? Maric?

this, in my opinion is what people should be thinking about when looking at how to develop our forward line. We don't necessarily need another big giant forward (butcher?)... what we do need is probably 1 or 2 more players capable of kicking more than 30 goals per season. A guy like Brett Ebert could fill that role, a Panos type? Just bc they aren't 6ft6 doesn't make them any less effective as long as they know how to kick goals.

Do we currently have the forward line to kick big scores? I personally think we do, as long as they are getting great service. If we can develop a super super midfield, which gets it into the forward line 60 times a match, then our forwards will kick the goals in my opnion. Bc our current midfield only gets the ball inside50 35 times a game, our forwards was always going to struggle this year. Thoughts?

[demons27 1]

I tried to take a deeper look at forward lines of the premiership contending sides...

Geelong: 9 goal kickers over 20 goals

Mooney, Stevie J- 40ish

Hawkins, Chapman, Stoke, Byrnes- 30ish

Gary Ablett, Matt Rooke, Varcoe- 22ish

StKilda: 4 goal kickers over 20 goals

Riewold- 68

Kochitzki and Milne- 45

Shnider- 30

Bulldogs: 8 goals kickers over 20 goals

Akermanus- 40

Johnson, Hill and Hahn- 32

Higgins- 27

Gilbee, Welsh and Gia- 20ish

Collingwood: 7 goal kickers over 20 goals

Anthony- 48

Davis- 34

Lockyer-30

Medhurst, Cloke, Dick and Didak- 20ish

Hawthorn- 3 goal kicker over 20

Franklin- 67

Roughead- 50

Rioli- 21

Adelaide- 4 goal kickers over 20

Porps- 51

Tipett- 51

Knights- 42

Walker- 23

-------

There are 2 major types of teams... equally effective.

1) One team relies on 2 forwards to score almost all there goals... this type of team is risky if one of those forwards goes down... e.g. Brissy with Brown/Bradshaw, Hawthorn with Franklin/Roughy, Stkilda with Reiwold/Kozi, Carlton with Fev.

2) Other teams spread their goals more evenly, but still have at least 2 players capable of kicking 40+ goals... see Geelong, Adelaide, Bulldgos and Collingwood.

The point i'm really trying to show is that is doesn't really matter what type of forward it is kicking your goals, they can be 184cm tall (Porplesia) or 198cm tall (Kozi)... what is far more important is how many players you have on your list that are capable of kicking 20, 30, 40 or even 50 goals per season!

Melbourne's forward line potential- (in my opinion)

Potential 40+ goal a year players- Watts, Jurrah, Bate

Potenital 30 goal a year players- Pettard, Wonaeamirri

Potential 20 goal a year players- Sylvia, Davey, Trengove*, Jamar, Jetta? Maric?

this, in my opinion is what people should be thinking about when looking at how to develop our forward line. We don't necessarily need another big giant forward (butcher?)... what we do need is probably 1 or 2 more players capable of kicking more than 30 goals per season. A guy like Brett Ebert could fill that role, a Panos type? Just bc they aren't 6ft6 doesn't make them any less effective as long as they know how to kick goals.

Do we currently have the forward line to kick big scores? I personally think we do, as long as they are getting great service. If we can develop a super super midfield, which gets it into the forward line 60 times a match, then our forwards will kick the goals in my opnion. Bc our current midfield only gets the ball inside50 35 times a game, our forwards was always going to struggle this year. Thoughts?

You make some good points. IMO the bigger issue is having a midfield that can achieve the inside 50's to feed a winning score.

As an aside, I like the defensive unit we are currently building....it's an obvious observation that lower ranking teams get more exposure to their defensive game plan.....but still, it is shaping up quite nicely and will do well when players are back from injury and have a solid pre season.

[Ryan Dee 140]

Brad Green could kick 30 in a season if he was up there full time.

[H_T 3,049]

Interesting to see the Saints with only 4 players over 20 goals. Good post sylvinator.

[Tatu 416]

Brad Green could kick 30 in a season if he was up there full time.

[/quot

If Green played forward all season, he'd be a 40+ player for sure.

he played the first three games there this season, and kicked 9.

[... 11]

I agree too. Good post. We have to build a premiership midfield and the rest will take care of itself. Jamar kicking 5 goals in a game recently was encouraging. I keep thinking about the WCE team who had Lynch at FF - I don't rate him at all but he managed to enough b/c of the Eagles' midfield supply.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

So which players on our list can be those 40+ guys?

Wonna, Jurrah, Sylvia... They're the ones likely to play there that have shown it's well within their capabilities.

Green, Bate, Miller and Davey are players who could do it depending on where on the ground they play/what role/how deep.

Petterd has kicked a handful of bags, and could be a good long-term target.

Watts and Maric are VERY young, but have the gifts.

Dunn, Garland and Morton I rate as chances, if everything went right.

That list is a bit thin on the top end, to be honest. Maybe one or two more genuine stay-at-home names.

Still don't want Butcher with pick #2.... :D

[titan_uranus 25,050]

If Green played forward all year (which might happen if we can get some of our younger guys to rotate through the midfield/half back), he could kick 40 goals. He has the capability to play KP forward. I also think Morton could kick 20+ goals over the course of a year if he drifted forward more often. Prefer him forward to back. Sylvia also could kick 20+, but I'd prefer him playing more midfield.

Maric, Jetta and Wonaeamirri probably need to be kicking 30 goals per year if we are to get close to a premiership. Otherwise we'll be relying on Watts, Bate and Jurrah to do it all every week.

[The Russian 0]

Good post.

I am an advocate for getting our most dangerous players forward as often as possible.

Bate and Miller (if he stays) need to hit at least the 30 goal mark as constants. On top of that Green as a full-time forward and Jurrah playing full games should be good for 40+. Then we need a good spread of 20+ goals kickers. Davey, Jetta, Maric, Petterd, Sylvia are Wonaeamirri are all capable. Any goals Watts kicks are a bonus.

However this won't happen if all our forwards push too far up the ground as part of a defensive game plan. Bailey needs to back our midfielders to get it our forwards and our forwards to beat their oponents. The more opportunities the more goals.

Edited September 6, 2009 by The Russian

[TheFlash 0]

My forward line would be

HF Jurrah Bate Jetta

FF Wona Green Watts

Like stated, with good supply this forward line would be awesome.

Thats why IMO we should take Scully and Trengove, and #18 the best KPF available. With Greeny holding down FF, it gives that player the chance to develope at casey, no need to rush him.

[grant 10]

From all reports I have also heard Trengrove is a mid that can kick goals

[Al`s DEMONS 0]

Brad Green could kick 30 in a season if he was up there full time.

try 70, i have called for him to play FF ever since Neita hit the canvas

[jnrmac 20,205]

Interesting to see the Saints with only 4 players over 20 goals. Good post sylvinator.

The Saints have a stunning midfield and a strangling defence - they don't need to kick lots of goals.

I'd be happy if we can build an elite midfield with picks 1 & 2. Thats what we have desperately needed for 10 years or more.

We can build a fwd line out of Watts, Garland, Green, Jurrah, Bate Wona and Jetta.

Edited September 7, 2009 by jnrmac

[Akum 2,660]

I tried to take a deeper look at forward lines of the premiership contending sides...

...

Do we currently have the forward line to kick big scores? I personally think we do, as long as they are getting great service. If we can develop a super super midfield, which gets it into the forward line 60 times a match, then our forwards will kick the goals in my opnion. Bc our current midfield only gets the ball inside50 35 times a game, our forwards was always going to struggle this year. Thoughts?

How do we do for scores-per-inside-50 compared with other teams?

[Junior 46]

It's worth noting that Jurrah has averaged 2.2 goals/match having only played 9 AFL games. This ranks him 16th in the league. If he plays 22 games next year and manages to even slightly improve on his average then he will kick 50+.

[Ryan Dee 140]

It's worth noting that Jurrah has averaged 2.2 goals/match having only played 9 AFL games. This ranks him 16th in the league. If he plays 22 games next year and manages to even slightly improve on his average then he will kick 50+.

Imagen him in a good team.

[heartbeatstrue 57]

Whatever the stats say, Geelong and the Bulldogs both lack one (quality forward line). Saints and Adelaide forward lines are functioning beautifully.

When we get some September action, ours will be going OK too based on what we've got and especially in reserve (Wonaeamirri, Watts).