Everything posted by Macca
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A Day at the Races
Finally, the draconian quarantine laws have been lifted for horses racing in HK. That means that horses here can be flown into HK, compete and then return to Australia after a mandatory 2 week period. I'm fairly sure that HK based horses like Beauty Generation, Pakistan Star or Mr Stunning can compete here with the same 2 weeks only quarantine period being applied. Conversely, our top group of sprinter/milers could travel to HK for their big race days (esp in April & December) and then return to Oz soon after. Read more here - Australian and Hong Kong governments end quarantine stand-off
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NFL
The Giants could get in first anyway (?) Here's his Combine performance ...
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A Day at the Races
There's a lot going on next weekend apart from Super Saturday at Flemington & Guineas day at Randwick. We've got the Group 3 Newcastle Newmarket on Friday and then on Sunday it's Black Opal Stakes Day at Canberra with 4 feature events to be held. And then Bruce McAvaney graces us with his presence on Monday for the Adelaide Cup Meeting ... hopefully working with James Jordan again with JJ giving out his tips. They worked really well together last year. The horse that won the cups treble out of Tassie in Eastender is running in the Adelaide Cup ... drawn 18 but it often gets back as a general rule. Still, with 20 horses in the field that's a lot of horses to get past. Good field, all the same. Run over the classic 2 miles.
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NFL
Foles to the Jags? @Clintosaurus @Dappa Dan - thoughts?
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The Soccer thread
With everything to play for Liverpool can't even score against Everton ... meanwhile, City keep finding a way to win. I'd like to see Liverpool win the title but draws ain't gonna get the job done. With 9 games to go and only 1 point separating the 2 sides, it's now down to who blinks first. I'm not sure that Man City will leave the door ajar again like they did in late December so Liverpool may have to win at least 8 of their 9 remaining games. Maybe even all 9.
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Lyon: Oliver is Demons best EVER midfielder
Clarrie has that look about him though and the bloke behind him has that look of utter despair. They're both possibly looking at their own footy future's in that snap. 'A picture is worth a 1000 words' was never more apt. Oliver is your quintessential above the shoulders player. Born to play footy.
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Lyon: Oliver is Demons best EVER midfielder
So that's what Josh Mahoney looks like. Who knew? The club has copped it left, right & centre on our drafting & trading history but what about the recent past ... Oliver, Brayshaw and (probably) Petracca are star quality whilst I believe Weideman could be really good if he can develop a genuine belief in himself. Salem is another success story. Viney the same. Melksham & Hibberd came for 2nd round picks. Fritsch, Frost & AVB came reasonably cheap as well. On top of that we've used top end picks to trade in 2 quality backmen (May & Lever) to shore things up down back. Trading/recruiting for senior talent in Cross, Vince & Lewis were also good moves. We've gone from predominately missing to predominately hitting with regards to recruiting.
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A Day at the Races
Hawkshot, Hartnell & Mystic Journey get the 3 remaining wild-cards for the All Star Mile Read more here
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Lyon: Oliver is Demons best EVER midfielder
I started a thread here once about the 'Best combined 22 that anyone here had seen play.' That opened up the possibility for both young & old (here) to post up players from any era. But if I was picking an all-time great Demon 22 then I'd be putting up plenty who I never actually saw play. Ivor Warne-Smith, Norm Smith, RDB and many others. But RDB supersedes all and therefore has to be brought into the conversation ... he was too good a player and played as a ruck-rover (midfielder) This is not to detract from Clarrie's obvious ability but he needs a similar output for a few more years yet before the true accolades can be bestowed on him. Wells is the best midfielder I've seen play at the club but again, RDB is miles ahead of all of them if we trust the history. And I trust the history.
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Lyon: Oliver is Demons best EVER midfielder
Clarrie did win the Morrish Medal (fairest & best in the Under 18 comp) so every club would have known about him. But you're right, working our way to the 3 pick was a masterstroke. The Bombers were all set to take Oliver and Parish with picks 5 & 6 but we usurped them.
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Lyon: Oliver is Demons best EVER midfielder
"In Lyon's time on earth" but ... Clarrie has a long way to go before he catches up with Ron Barassi I never saw RDB play but I know plenty who did see him play ... a gun ruck-rover (midfielder) who was arguably best on ground in 3 winning grand finals. Universally regarded as a great footballer. Oliver is on a similar trajectory but he's still got to get there. Not sure we should ever dismiss the past so easily.
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Monkey Business
I reckon both teams are overs on the Win/+2.5 ... Juve are 5.50 so I have done the 'saver' multi with Liverpool & Atletico. The combined odds are just too tempting Wadda even though I do like your Napoli selection. I also like @Dee Zephyr 's selection with Atletico ... good value all round really. The same theory has been working for me on the horses with the saver option. It's really only feasible if both odds are deemed as overs. There will be goals in this match you'd reckon. Meanwhile, our Demons have had a good hit-out in oppressive conditions. We've got a number of good players missing but we've taken it right up to the Tiges.
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A Day at the Races
Early odds for the Newmarket with question marks over a couple at the top (notably Nature Strip & Zousain) Santa Ana Lane & Redkirk are excellent value (both are former multiple winners down the straight at Flemington at Group 1 level)
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Monkey Business
Here are the 3 specials ... all tomorrow morning Monday 6.30am Serie A $4.20 Napoli Win +2.5 goals v Juventus Monday 03.15am EPL $2.50 Liverpool Win & +2.5 Goals Match Score @ Everton Spanish Primera Division Monday 04:30 - Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid $2.90 Atletico Madrid Win & Over 1.5 match goals Old school combined odds of 33-1 (with a boost) Good luck to anyone who is playing
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A Day at the Races
Best Bet Strike Rate 96: 39 - 14 - 12 Australian Group & Listed Races And here are the replay's of the Group 1 races from yesterday ... Surround Stakes - Nakeeta Jane (logon to watch)
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Monkey Business
Looks a no-brainer Wadda, doesn't it ? Saturday overnight I've been having a couple of multi's based on the English Championship, League 1 & League 2 ... just 3picks but there is some very good value to be had in those leagues. Anywhere from 15-1 up to 50-1 based on the Win/+2.5 match goals rule-of-thumb. Spurs/Gunners tonight (11pm on SBS) could provide a few goals as well although either team can win.
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The Soccer thread
Spurs vs Gunners on SBS tonight ... coverage starts at 11.00pm. TalkSport Radio TodayFM (EPL Coverage)
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A Day at the Races
You could look at from the connections of Happy Clapper's point of view ... they have given up the chance to win other races with bigger prizemoney along with black-type recognition. That they happened to gain a wild-card was testimony to the horses ability but it's still a bit of a risk running against Winx ... and the fact is that any number of the connections of the good middle distance horses have deliberately avoided Winx - Apollo Stakes (1400m) Chipping Norton (1600m) Ryder Stakes (1500m) Ironically, the All Star Mile doesn't include the best Miler in Australia - Winx. My query is why isn't 'The Autumn Sun' running in the All Star Mile or running against Winx? For stud purposes the ASM doesn't carry any weight yet but when it does become a Group 1 race (along with the Everest) they'll be clamoring to get into the race. My attitude has always been there's no time like the present so the dilly-dallying annoys me ... both races aren't going anywhere so get them both recognised asap.
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A Day at the Races
Next year we'll have a stronger field but in any Group 1 WFA middle distance race the field often tails off after the top 6 or 8 ... to get 14 bona-fide chances in the race would be a promoters dream. They'll make it happen next year by lifting the Benchmark qualification as well as altering the voting procedures to suit ... we might see 5 or 6 wild-cards too. 1 or 2 NQR's is acceptable though given it is a public vote. I reckon the 3 add-ons will be Mystic Journey, Fifty Stars & Hartnell ... add those 3 to Alizee, Amphitrite, Grunt, Happy Clapper & Material Man and you've got a very good field. Moss 'n' Dale & Mr Money Bags could run bold races too. And 1 or 2 of the rank outsiders could end up with a dream run from a good barrier and end up finishing in the top 8 past the post. Good money to be made for the connections of the long-shots.
- Monkey Business
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A Day at the Races
My pattern is often similar Wadda ... I usually come home strong. I might just cut out the slow starts by cutting out the early stuff! There's a thought ? In other news you'd reckon that 'Mystic Journey' would get a run in the All Star Mile after winning the Guineas today and so might 'Fifty Stars' ... Hartnell as well?
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A Day at the Races
For a moment there ... but in the end Winx ran a sizzling 01:33.27 and did it on the bit Happy Clapper picks up a lazy $114k for the connections for what looked like a bit of a jog-around. Unforgotten a fair way back to 3rd.
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A Day at the Races
What has been really noticeable today is the drifting in the market by horses that were previously at the top of the market ... I've got a few winners up but I've missed on the odds.
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A Day at the Races
Same as last week ... got the 'saver' winner and also got the exacta but the team misses on 'Extra Brut' - I'm picking the team says ugh and sighs. Could have gone for a shortie and that would have been 'She's so High' in race 3 so may re-evaluate my pick going forward.
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A Day at the Races
2 from 2! Team 'ADATR' well in front at half time