Macca

9 Melbourne Cup 2025 Field3200m Race at Flemington racecourseRace Time: 3:00 pmNovember 4, 2025 1. Al Riffa (19) J: Mark Zahra W: 59kg $7.00 Bet Now COMMENT: The win prior, the form stinks, but last start, the subsequent form has been quite strong. 59kg in a Melbourne Cup…gee it’s going to be an ask. But, Mark Zahra is a gun rider in big races, and Joseph O’Brien is a gun trainer when it comes to travelling horses overseas. He is a definite contender. 2. Buckaroo (12) J: Craig Williams W: 57kg $10 Bet Now COMMENT: The Cox Plate run was full of merit and it took a gun mare in Via Sistina to beat him. The Cox Plate is usually gold for the Melbourne Cup…I just question whether he runs 3200m. I think he does, on the proviso he draws soft. If he can draw inside and bludge in the run, gee I think he’ll run well. 3. Arapaho (15) J: Rachel King W: 56.5kg $34 Bet Now COMMENT: Thought he was cast prior to Bendigo…he might still be cast, but he was the sneaky good run in the race and we saw that sneaky good run at Bendigo win the race last year. Could I back him to win? No. But I can see him sneaking into the top ten. 4. Vauban (2) J: Blake Shinn W: 56.5kg $23 Bet Now COMMENT: Thought he was right on track after an excellent return in the Chelmsford. Luckless in The Metropolitan but the Caulfield Cup run worries me. He has won at 3382m previously but for mine, I don’t think he stay at the top level, and has failed twice previously in the race. Not for me. 5. Chevalier Rose (5) J: Damian Lane W: 55.5kg $41 Bet Now COMMENT: D Lane has a great record with the stable/connections in big races, both locally and overseas. It is clear that this horse that needs a rock hard track. With the Melbourne weather, no idea. If he gets conditions to suit, he’s the best each way gamble in the race. If there is rain and we get a wet track, I say he’ll struggle. 6. Presage Nocturne (9) J: Stéphane Pasquier W: 55.5kg $8.50 Bet Now COMMENT: I think he’s the one from the Caulfield Cup. He wasn’t ready from a mounting yard perspective, trip short of his best and on a dry-ish track. He’s okay on a dry track, but on wet ground, he’ll absolutely thrive and run all day. If the rain comes, I’ll be keen to back each way. 7. Middle Earth (13) J: Ethan Brown W: 54.5kg $41 Bet Now COMMENT: Blinkers went on at Moonee Valley and he ran okay, but that race was terrible. I actually think he’s a 1600m/2000m max in time. He looks like he has a lethal turn of foot in slowly run races but when the distances increase, he lacks stamina to my eye. Goes through to the keeper. 8. Meydaan (22) J: James McDonald W: 54kg $21 Bet Now COMMENT: I am fairly certain J Mac will ride a better race on this guy vs Atzeni. He brings very strong form lines from the UK and does give the impression of being fine at 3200m. How much did the Caulfield Cup take out of him? Not sure, but I am not dismissing him. 9. Absurde (4) J: Kerrin McEvoy W: 53.5kg $19 Bet Now COMMENT: Normally I pen horses who have previously failed in the race. Would a win shock with this guy? No, and he will be included in all exotic plays because he will stay all day and handles wet ground. I think he is the best each way chance in the race. 10. Flatten The Curve (17) J: Thore-Hammer Hansen W: 53kg $20 Bet Now COMMENT: Hard to knock his numerical form in 2025. He has really come on the last 6-12 months. But I just don’t think there is enough substance in his form to say he’s going to threaten. If he wins, too good, but he goes through to the keeper for me. 11. Land Legend (16) J: Joao Moreira W: 53.5kg $61 Bet Now COMMENT: Start of the prep, I thought he was a serious contender for the Melbourne Cup. But he did nothing in the Turnbull and was worse in the Caulfield Cup. Waller will need to weave some all time magic to get this horse to bounce back. 12. Smokin’ Romans (11) J: Ben Melham W: 53.5kg $61 Bet Now COMMENT: Was kept safe in betting in this race in 2022 and was okay. He hasn’t really captured that sort of form since and his efforts this time in suggest he’s nowhere near the level required to figure in the finish. He is one I am more than happy to pen. 13. Changingoftheguard (24) J: Tim Clark W: 53kg $71 Bet Now COMMENT: Rough outside top ten chance at his best and while he was luckless in The Metropolitan, he was poor at Geelong and while he’ll be on speed, he won’t be beating many home. 14. Half Yours (8) J: Jamie Melham W: 53kg $7.50 Bet Now COMMENT: I want to pen him because he has been in work forever and I reckon there was just a couple of signs at Caulfield that perhaps he might want the paddock. But when the horse is racing as well as he is, connections have to give the horse his chance. Great narrative if he wins, and of course he can win. But I won’t be backing him to win. He will go in exotics. 15. More Felons (23) J: Tommy Berry W: 53kg $41 Bet Now COMMENT: I think two miles will suit him ideally and rain won’t hurt his cause. I don’t think he’s good enough to win but I can see him running top ten because his run in The Metropolitan was a beauty. 16. Onesmoothoperator (6) J: Harry Coffey W: 53kg $31 Bet Now COMMENT: Prince Of Arran 2.0 this guy. Just a fair horse in the UK but when in Australia, he is just a different/better horse. The Moonee Valley Gold Cup win was brilliant and on a dry track, he’d be a clear top pick for me. But with the rain forecast, I think you have to pen him because he just doesn’t go a yard on wet ground, and that’s not just me, that is connections saying that as well. 17. Furthur (7) J: Michael Dee W: 52kg $26 Bet Now COMMENT: He’s a nice horse I think, for the future. Not sure he is good enough to take out the big one here though and from what I’ve seen in replays, he looks a horse that needs more time to fill out his frame. Not for me here. 18. Parchment Party (3) J: John Velazquez W: 52kg $61 Bet Now COMMENT: As I said, great narrative that he’s here being an American horse. He will chip away and stay…but if he’s winning the Melbourne Cup, the race is in big trouble. Got no chance IMO. 19. Athabascan (1) J: Declan Bates W: 51.5kg $71 Bet Now COMMENT: I think he does race best on wet ground and did show signs of life at Moonee Valley last start. But I think overall, he’s not going well enough to threaten. 20. Goodie Two Shoes (20) J: Wayne Lordan W: 51.5kg $41 Bet Now COMMENT: Needs a dry track to be any sort of chance, even then I’d have her at top ten. But if the rain comes, I say she is going to struggle, though I will say, that even on wet ground, she won’t know herself with 51.5kg on her back. 21. River Of Stars (14) J: Beau Mertens W: 51.5kg $16 Bet Now COMMENT: Does one run cancel the rest of the prep, which was pretty poor. Yes, very good in the Caulfield Cup, down in the weights, think 3200m is okay for her…just can’t see her winning. Another that is a top ten contender, a rough place chance. 22. Royal Supremacy (21) J: Robbie Dolan W: 51kg $26 Bet Now COMMENT: If you knew he was going to relax in the run, you’d back him with confidence. I think he has got the ability to win the race but unless you’re a freak, you can’t pull over 3200m and expect to win. 23. Torranzino (18) J: Celine Gaudray W: 51kg $31 Bet Now COMMENT: I think a wet track is what he needs because he lacks the brilliance of others, but even on a dry track, I think he’ll measure up. Incredible effort in the Bart Cummings and I think was arrogant in the Geelong Cup. Right down in the weights, he’ll be strong late, he likes Flemington…I think he’ll run an absolute beauty. 24. Valiant King (10) J: Jye McNeil W: 51kg $9.00 Bet Now COMMENT: Prior to the Bart Cummings

Leaderboard Tipping Comp 22 - Clintosaurus 21 - layzie 20 - Macca 19 - BDA, Go the Biff 18 - Dee Zephyr 15 - Gorgoroth 13 - titan_uranus 12 - Dr.Gonzo, ElDiablo* *ElDiablo will progress to 16 points if Arizona are successful tomorrow

Yes, injuries are another variable with drafting. It's often a crapshoot at the best of times However, just like in the USA where all their sports have attached drafts, there are often certain recruiters that get on streaks (either way) We are blessed that we have Taylor who is as good as Wells was at Geelong (in my view) By the way, we are catching up with the States with regards to accepting drafting for what it is (not for what it is seemingly supposed to be) Except in Australia, we draft underdeveloped teenages where as in the States, most of the draftees are College students aged 20-23 (sometimes, an NBA or Baseball prospect is drafted at 18 or 19)

And the reason why we remember the 2024 draft is because it was so recent But try going back 10, 15 or 20 years ... no one would have a clue And that's my point. I'm not interested in what happens in hindsight, that's all for everyone to see It's the predicting is what matters (to me) Get it right, all the time, and you've got my attention

It's still way too early to evaluate the 2024 correctly. Lot's of promise of course, but I'd say by the end of 2028 is when we can make a decent appraisal And if the draft is anywhere close to being a known science, then there would be a lot of out of work recruiters (sacked) They all missed on Fyfe (including Freo who picked Morabito #4 ... played 26 games) Do they ever get sacked for being so incompetent? haha ... the reality is that those within the industry know full well how difficult a task it is (drafting) I'm a cynic for good reason, but I do trust Taylor. We're in good hands as he punches way above his weight

The main thing that never seems to get remembered are those drafts that were supposed to be chock full of talent or the ones that are supposed to be shallow (not the aftermath comments by those using hindsight, the pre draft comments ... the consensus) Because it takes a good 5 years to properly evaluate a draft, no one seems to know what was said before the drafts And in every draft, there are any number of good players picked past the first round There's a lot of luck involved but there again, there are those recruiters that have the midas touch (like Taylor with non talls) It's always fascinating to re-evaluate any draft as the order is generally completely different years down the track Happy to acknowledge that the industry is a lot better at drafting these days but a few unknown areas still exist ... like coachability and whether a player is a self-starter A manic desire to succeed is another area that is hard to evaluate. Or players who relish physical contact (copping it, rather than dishing it out) We need to remember that the draftees are still teenagers and certainly not the finished product

Well, I'm not so sure that we wanted to keep Trac that badly ... we certainly didn't do an Essendon (Merrett) Did we fight hard to keep him? All we kept hearing was that we wanted to be compensated well. There was a fait accompli about the whole business Did the club want to go through a 3rd year with the whole to and fro? It's my belief that the club would be very pleased with the deal, all things considered One thing is for sure, there will be no more talk about whether Ollie or Trac are going to stay or not They are both gone

And all things being equal, for 2 off-seasons in row, Petracca wanted out If it was just one year, then you get on with it. But it was obvious that Trac wanted out and we need a united group (were we united in 2024 & 2025?) And his best years are possibly behind him. Very good but top notch? I'll take the 3 x 1st rounders and back Jason Taylor in If he can turn 2* of the 3 picks into top players (giving 10+ years of service) then we win the deal But of course, time will tell And who is to say that we might (somehow) land an extra 1st rounder in the 2026 draft? After all, we went into the 2025 trade week with just a pick in the mid 20's as our first pick *Hoping for 3 top players with 3 x 1st rounders is probably a bridge too far

Well in a 3 year stretch 2021 - 2023 Trac accumulated 2098 possessions over 74 games (average 28+ per game) And 39 possessions in a GF. Some would describe that performance as the complete game Not too shabby for a player who you reckon never put in 4 quarters Make no mistake, Petracca will be difficult to replace. Let's hope we draft well with the 3 first round picks that we got for him

The question is Gonzo, right now, would we prefer 3 x 1st round draft picks or Petracca? Remembering that we got nothing for Oliver other than the salary cap space and then the subsequent acquisition of Steele (and Mihocek?)

Meanwhile, Dallas' GM, Jerry Jones, is off chasing $100Billion in gas reserves ... causing quite a furore in the States

Yes, I'm hoping that Kolt hits the first training session raring to go and as fit as a fiddle. Being a bit muscled up wouldn't hurt either Actually, all our players need to present well as there's a lot of ground to make up They are all professional footballers

As poor as Miami was, the Ravens were quite impressive (and they are coming) Lamar makes such a difference with his star quality And Henry doesn't look like he's slowing down in a hurry. A real pro Bleacher Report Power Rankings (Full Write-up) Their top 14 ... 1) Colts 2) Chiefs 3) Rams 4) Packers 5) Eagles 6) Lions 7) Bills 8) Bucs 9) Broncos 10) Pats 11) Seahawks 12) Chargers 13) 49ers 14) Steelers

Fair enough, I was only having a bit of fun with the Dolphins of Miami They may not have to tank to get a nice pick in the draft anyway I wonder how the next batch of QB's are going at College level ... there's usually 4 or 5 prominent names - including Arch Manning?

Yes, spot on Re Ollie & Trac ... when was the last time a team lost (arguably) 2 of their best players, prematurely, in one hit? It's certainly not a common occurance In the first few rounds next season there's a good chance that we'll be looking out for them, such was their dominance and influence I started not noticing both of them in the last quarters of games in 2025. Normally, both would finish strong but not in 2025

It's way too early to have an accurate appraisal of Kolt. His sample size is limited minutes in a dysfunctional forward line (where the delivery was atrocious) If we went back to his highlight reel before being drafted, he was all over the field picking up possessions and was drafted as a mid/forward We also played Windsor out of position for far too long. Give the lad a run at half back but not all the time (finally moved into the midfield late in the season) Poor placement for both players. And Laurie was hardly given a chance at all in a team that couldn't win games We should have started experimenting with the list early on in 2025

A lot of drafted top end pick mids are plug-in-and-play types these days too And our depth isn't great so I'm expecting a development year with a fair bit of experimentation Looking forward to seeing how players like Laurie, Kolt & Windsor go if (or when) they are given more midfield minutes Losing Ollie & Trac opens up 2 mainstay* spots in the midfield and it will be interesting to see who becomes our main 4 or 5 mids and how they work together (and the resultant style) Viney is right back into the equation where as he previously might have been squeezed out *Petracca played forward a lot of course, so will we develop another Mid/Forward to accompany Kozzie? (Langford?)

Tanking?

Ravens Chargers Jags

Test squad should be announced tomorrow or perhaps on the weekend Bancroft & McSweeney have both scored 💯 today with Renshaw out for 29 and Marnus 4, Green 0, Webster 11, Weatherald 0 Smith got a 💯 as a nice tune up Green didn't bowl and Webster picked up only 1 wicket One to watch is Brendan Doggett who took 6-48 vs W.A Haskett (W.A) is another who is lively. Big lad with a nice left arm action

Yes, there's also different levels of optimism, pessimism and having a realistic view In fact, this whole site revolves around the 3 types of thinking along with all the variables But I've always felt that a team is heavily reliant on the experienced players ... and they let themselves down in 2025 (need to bounce back)

An optimistic view would be pushing for finals or playing a final or 2 I'll be disappointed if we fall right away, as this list is still far superior to the lists we had from 2008 to 2015 Short on genuine stars but plenty of players who are AFL standard One thing that we didn't see in 2025 was a motivated list. We were going through the motions match after match So with a new coach (?) Given a good run with injuries I'd take 9 - 11 wins on an upward curve

Yes, very true, Betters We were just meandering along and then that loss hastened change 2 of the changes (losing Trac & Ollie) will take time to completely come to terms with, but time may well confirm that it was for the best. But hey, 3 first round picks in return might return 3 top players Goodwin had run his race but he'll forever be a premiership coach and for some of us, we thought that 13th flag may have never come

One bounce at the start of each match would have kept a small part of a rich history Did you ever try bouncing the footy? Damn hard thing to do and with the first 10 or so tries, the ball would often come back straight at your snozz (and ... would bring tears)

And it's flipped Blue Jays now lead 3-2 going into game 6 in Toronto (Sat 11.00m AEDT) One more win and they win their 3rd World Series