Macca

And I am not saying that we ignore the draft altogether. I am simply pointing out the flaws in the draft. Nothing is perfect, least of all the draft. But you'd never know it if you'd only ventured here. And be honest here, did you stuck your neck out at the time and mention that the selection of Gysberts, Toumpas & Cook were mistakes. See it's easy in hindsight to make those claims but I've read all the threads here on all 3 players and not one bad word was said about any of the 3. Not a word Most of the appraisals are said in hindsight. After they started playing for the club. Nearly all of them in fact.

I wouldn't necessarily draft a player or if I did it might be the choice of 6 - 8 players I'd be more looking at trading in a Prestia or Sheil type for the pick with maybe a late 2nd rounder coming back our way as well. But I believe we might have to use 1 first round draft pick on a draftee this year so with some astute trading we could trade pick 3 and work our way back to a pick somewhere between 11 & 16. Time will tell We have to remember that in real terms draft pick numbers are overvalued. For instance, I value Prestia or Sheil as being worth 2 x top 10 picks. Many would disagree but if the strike is 50/50 then 2 top 10 picks is therefore fair. Collingwood coughed up 2 x top 10 picks for Treloar but that's the outlier trade. But as previously stated, the busts are going to happen because of the very nature of drafting. It's not a colossal amount of clubs making a colossal amount of unforced errors. The system is a lottery or a glorified lucky dip. But here's the thing, if you or anyone else puts aside all the bad news, the draft can be seen as entirely accurate. But bad news is bad news. It just cannot be ignored. The entire history of drafting backs up my assertions.

Like I have always said, you go to the draft with trepidation. I am not against drafting because clubs have to draft at least 3 prospects. But that is all they are - prospects. Drafting is high risk but more so with top end picks or top 10 picks. As we've found out. With all those busts we probably would have been better off drawing names out of a hat. And T-Mac was always going to be a late pick based on his junior form so we could have still got him as well as using the Cook pick on proven talent. So we end up with 2 decent players instead of one. From my point of view the above is not a hindsight comment. It might look thay way to others but my posting history here says otherwise.

In the context I meant it as, it is true If 95%+ of the supporter group agree and gp along with a club decision, they are stuck with that decision

As for Lucas Cook Not one bad word was said about in this place. I have read the threads on him. And he was always going to be drafted jn the first round. An all Australian under 18 CHF. Some thought we were getting the next Nick Reiwoldt Didn't play a game.

What matters is what the large majority of the supporter base thought at the time As individuals, we have our own thoughts but do those thoughts even matter? I'd say an emphatic no. I would have traded a lot of those picks but it isn't about me. I might have been right too but what is done, is done.

Our strategy was to srick to it and see it through (drafting) but it failed spectacularly So again, the club did what the supporter group wanted it to do. So we cannot complain now You make your chouces, you live with them. Now ww've changed tack (finally) and are trading for talent. Again, the choice of many. This time around, it should work out. We still have to use the draft for at least 3 choices but those choices will still deliver unknown results You never 'nail' draft choices. You get lucky.

It shouldn't necessarily be assumed that clubs go to the draft because they can't attract proven talent. It's my belief that a lot of clubs don't realise that drafting is flawed But the thinking has changed and is still changing. Clubs give up top 10 picks for talent a lot more than they used to GWS get it but probably by default. They have off-loaded top 10 picks who don't measure up a lot quicker than any other club. So as to double-dip and even triple-dip through the draft. The odds are about 50/50 so if you get a stack of chances in the one year ..... Yet people point the finger at them for picking players in the draft who don't measure up. Same as they do for every other club. GCS on the other hand hang on to top end picks in a reverse way but lose their good choices to the vultures down South. With drafting I prefer to embrace the bad news as well. Most others don't want to know about the bad news. They simply prefer to blame the clubs for the hundreds of busts that the draft delivers (over time) Or they throw out the 'Development' card. Another cop-out. Great players with great talent are born. But the great under 18 form is only a guide. It is not foolproof. The facts bear that appraisal out.

Scully & Trengove were the standout picks too. Martin was 3rd pick but was always 3rd choice Yet Martin is now being talked about as an all-time great and one of the best ever. Pick 3. And even though pick 3 'could' unearth another star the smarter percentage play is to trade the pick for proven talent. At least you know what you're getting that way. And draft picks are grossly overvalued There's even a points system attached to the picks as if busts should never happen. It's just nonsense. Pure unadulterated nonsense.

And if we go to the draft with pick 3 the messiah belief system will kick into gear Like night follows day. It's what we do. Again and again and again. We haven't had a top end pick for a while so it stands to reason. Plenty of top players have been swapped for 1 top 10 pick. Of late Hogan, May, Prestia, Lynch, Sheil and a number of others. We should do the same or similar. In fact, it's what the club has started doing re Lever & May. Should we go back to Oscar & Frost instead? Yeah, we could have gone to the draft with the picks but then what? More busts? I don't like the odds with drafting. Never have. It's a poor percentage play if all the data is properly analysed. Give me proven talent any day of the week. Draft picks are overvalued anyway so how can you lose by trading picks for proven talent?

Rubbish It's a cop-out to blame the clubs. The soft option. Weak. The draft and drafting is flawed

And if your Aunty had balls she'd be your Uncle What the hell were you saying at the time? Serious question. But be careful, everything you said at the time is written in stone. Everythng. Own your words. All these if's and but's are BS. Pure BS We picked star under 18 prospects. All of them were standout juniors. All of them. The draft is flawed. It's factual, not an opinion. You've been sold a lemon Gonzo. You and 1000's of others. Wake up and quit your complaining The clubs choices were your choices. Deal with it.

The draft has failed us but the warning signs were there and are always there. The buy-in is way over the top. I've never understood it (the buy-in) It's as if people don't want to question anything they've been told. And they don't know when to quit. Have a read of the post directly above.

With the odd exception we all wanted and/or willingly accepted Scully, Morton, Toumpas, Watts, Trengove, McLean, Sylvia (RIP), Gysberts, Cook, Maric, Strauss, Blease & Tapscott. And others. The draft is flawed, always has been and always will be. We pluck these kids out of high school, bestow greatness on them and when those ridiculous expectations aren't met we lash out at anything and everything. Madness. The club, the recruiters and then the player in question gets the blame. And then we start banging on about who we should have picked instead. This place has any number of threads and posts all based on a myth.

Hang on Gonzo You and at least 95% of the supporter agreed with going all-in on the draft AND with all the choices as well The club did exactly what the supporter base wanted it do. So you can't complain now. Nor can anyone else for that matter. Be careful what you wish for was never more apt. With the odd exception we were all-in on the tanking too. Lets be honest here. And you know my views on the draft. Are you still a believer despite all the evidence to the contrary? Weideman is another top 10 pick and he could end up adding to the long list of busts. I have been an advocate of trading picks for decades now. The safe, sensible and assured way of bringing talent to the club. In fact, if the club had have gone down the trading path the years of misery wouldn't have happened. And if anyone thinks I'm talking in hindsight go back and have a search of my posting. I've been nothing but consistent. For decades.

It happened again

⁹ Well Lloyd Williams targeted the McKinnon with Latrobe last year but they come over too late to contest the races in the early part of the Spring. The McKinnon is worth $2Miilion now so we'll probably see more overseas represention in that race. As well as the Cox Plate. But from the Cox Plate onwards the distance races from 2000m upwards will be filled with overseas horses. The Moonee Valley Cup, Bendigo Cup & the Geelong Cup included. Maybe even the Herbert Power on Guineas day And I welcome the overseas contingent. We don't produce stayers in this country anymore and without the overseas horses our longer distance races would be won by inferior local horses. Hopefully that changes in the future but since the passing of Zabeel, there have not been any real replacements in terms of sires that can produce good stayers. Australian investors might have to buy big from overseas studs. Not sure how that is done though as the systems overseas are set up very well (with regards to producing stayers) The wonder mare Winx covered up the lack of depth we have with horses that can run well over the mile and further. Avilius is one of the next best but that horse is originally from overseas anyway. Mystic Journey will probably get the mile and a quarter but that would probably be it.

Avilius will be in Melbourne for the Cox Plate but the Turnbull St, Caulfield Stakes, Craven Pl & the McKinnon St will see similar fields to what we saw today. Avilius might also run in the Turnbull whilst a few of the overseas horses might contest the McKinnon. The Melbourne Cup will have any number of overseas representation and the Caulfield Cup might see 5 - 8 from overseas. Box 6 in both cups in a trifecta or a F4 might be the go but who knows? It's a bit of a hit and hope these days Wadda. 4/7/7 or 4/7/7/7 in the Tri or F4 might be my preference.

The Jockey on Harlem (Dwayne Dunn) mentioned that the horse is nearly back to its best and is looking for 2000m. Was only beaten 3 lengths today and will probably be big odds again the next time it runs. Caulfield Stakes next up? (Oct 12th 2000m WFA $1Million) It started at 70-1 today and the WFA races don't have the crack fields that they once did. Might be better off looking at some value runners in these middle distance Group 1's. In the 'Exotics' boxed perhaps. Or just each-way.

Too short to back it today though Wadda. Strange having a BM78 to finish the meeting but you're right about Harbour Views. A Blackbooker. I did well yesterday and was playing with house money today. No collects though! The punt giveth and the punt taketh away. That's racing I much prefer it when Melb & Syd are racing on the same day though. For whatever reason I don't like waiting around half an hour for the next race. Superstition kicks in. I'm a creature of habit!!

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From prep to prep some horses are just never the same. Brave Song might have needed the run or perhaps Caulfield didn't suit first up. And then we have the Black Heart Bart, Harlem & Gatting stories. Need a crystal ball sometimes! The quaddie could pay anything today. Especially if a roughie gets up in the last.

Brad Rawiller was the jockey we're referencing Wadda. He gave us the heads-up but I'm not sure any of the punters followed up. Some bookies might have even offered 150-1. Your quintessential "Turn up for the Books"

Just noticed your post above I do remember you mentioning the horse come to think of it. It wasn't a strong field but it was unwanted in the betting, all the same.

Another 100-1 shot wins a Group 1. A 9 year old to boot. Black Heart Bart salutes in the Underwood Stakes. Who would have picked that? The horse was retired a year ago, they bring it back and then this. Amazing.