Macca

The Tigers will beat Adelaide and make sure of it as they could lose the double chance otherwise. But an 80 point win to the Crows today will see them close in on North. Carlton could rally though ... Crows by 30 and then they'd need a big differential in margins next week I remember the days when there would be upset victories towards the end of the season (pre draft era) The rumour was always that a team would plonk a fair wad on themselves to pay for the end of season trip. Ya know, Captain Groenewegen and all that.

Can't see Adelaide beating Richmond next week LH so they'll get pick 1 you'd reckon (unless they beat Carlton by 80+ points!)

Hawks have probably already decided what they're going to do with pick 3 in the draft. And the Pies to take care of Gold Coast you'd imagine. Best chance is Freo against the Doggies next week. And we still have to beat Essendon next week of course. Footscray being the conduit much like it was in '76 & '87. Let's hope we get 2 out of 3. But in the drafting era clubs put the cue in the rack more often than not. Hoping for the best and if we get in we might even win a final. You never know. But by gee we've made it hard for ourselves.

Yeah and I looked at So Si Bon but threw in Warning for real value. Punters Lanent! They came home for the last 600 in 00:33.29 and So Si Bon was travelling as well as any of the others. I will be (repeat, will be!) including So Si Bon in the exotics for length of its career! It us such a much improved honest horse but is just shy of G1 class. And the depth of our G1 milers isn't that strong either. Bit like Tom Melbourne ... I got a number of exotic collects with good old Tom included. Lesson learned the 2nd time around. And you're right about the bigger pools and that is related to the depth of quality. In similar 16 horse fields at least 2/3rds of the field can often be dismissed but not in a race like yesterday's Makybe Diva Stakes. Bank the top 3 as you mentioned Wadda but come up with 3 or 4 other roughies. A 3/7/7/7 combo costs the same as a box 6. In a WFA G1 one should be able to come up with the winner with 3 choices. Worth persevering with from a personal point of view. Anyway, no luck overnight (but lots of placings!) so it's Sha Tin here we come. Just a few small one-out doubles and a treble or 2.

Some good betting races to look out for tonight & tomorrow ... mostly G1 & G2 racing tonight whilst tomorrow the highlighted races from Sha Tin are C2 & C3 ($390k/$265k) Doncaster (UK) 3.00pm & 3.35pm (add 9 hours for AEST) The Curragh (Ire) 2.00pm, 3.10pm, 3.40pm, 4.10pm, 4.45pm & 5.15pm (add 9 hours for AEST) Sha Tin (Sunday) Races 7, 8, 9 & 10

Lean pickings by the sounds of it today ... got a few late winners but a little down overall for the day. We couldn't take a trick with our tips Wadda although JV came through with a winner in the last at Adelaide. Still, there is lots of group racing at Leopardstown (Ire) & Doncaster (UK) tonight so there's a chance for the recoup. I'll post up a bit of a preview later on Sha tin tomorrow as well ... the quaddie legs look enticing! I'm not done with yet!

Rothfire! Wow, what a horse! Thought it was overs even at $4.50 The Everest for this one. Sharp as.

Ok so we've got Miami Bound, Master of Wine, Fierce Impact, Kings Will Dream and I'll throw in Russian Camelot & Warning (for a bit of value. 4, 7, 9, 10, 13 & 16 Betting has closed! Good luck today to all the punters out there and lets hope the ADATR choices come through with the goods!

I now view footy as a 'new' sport ... defence based. With no real connection to the past. It's the only way I can watch it (with that mindset) I certainly don't love footy any more and I'm not recommending that others view the sport as I now view it. I just got sick & tired of going through the 7 stages of grief year after year And I can enjoy defence based sports to a certain degree.

And the Cats would be feeling mighty deflated right now too. They'll still get at least 2 finals unless they slip up against Sydney next week but they'd want to play a lot better than they did tonight (if they're going to feature)

Might be a generational thing ... most tiger fans I know went through 3 decades of mostly rubbish results. Most witnessed the glory years from '67 - '80 then later on saw their club nearly fold. The feedback I get is still with a tinge of disbelief re how well their team is going now. They didn't think they'd ever see success again. Same as you'd imagine that not many of us would take anything for granted if we ever became successful again. I know I wouldn't.

I know plenty of tiger fans and not 1 of them is complaining. They are still pinching themselves re their ongoing success. It's their team defence that really stands out though. No other club comes close. The Eagles an outside chance but only on their home deck (and that won't be happening) As previously stated, they bring their best and they win the big one again. Their onfield footy IQ is something else as well. And I reckon they are too professional to have an off day.

Tigers will win it all again if they play at their best. Their total football (inc total defence) is hard to counter. In fact, the teams on the end of their brand of footy seem nonplussed during the battle. Clueless on how to respond. To keep an in-form team like Geelong down to 1 goal in 3 quarters was remarkable.

Had 'em both in mind JV, don't worry! And putting together an exotic combo is not necessarily for my benefit. Anyone can use the picks. I'm a great believer in team and with regards to the punt, I'm not sure the team aspect has been explored properly. Just my view of course. For instance, I'm liking the extra best bets that we currently have this Spring. The large multi is an option especially for a small outlay but I also like to pluck the eyes out of the picks for straight wins, double's or even a treble. Got 4 collects last week out of the 6 picks and turned a profit. And all our choices this week look like standouts to me.

Fair bit of value already with Master of Wine & Miami Bound. And to be honest I'd rather trust the collective knowledge of the ADATR crew than my own thoughts. Boxing 6 with a small outlay can still pay a decent dividend especially with a F4. I first struck upon the idea when you made mention of a collect in the Caulfield Cup (?) a couple of years ago. Think it was a Box 6 F4 IIRC.

...And 'Rolling Fog' Interested in posters thoughts with regards to the Makybe Diva Group1 I've got Master of Wine as my best bet (place only) but I'm thinking of taking out a box Tri or Box F4. As much as it's often best to leave the best bet races alone I don't want to curtail any conversations on a big Group 1. I do fancy Master of Wine but the exotics could pay a bit on the race. So feel free to proffer up your choice The event is Race 7 and the field, form & odds in a post above (near the top of the page)

How good is Caleb Ewan! 2 stage wins now and he certainly knows where the finishing line is. Times his run's to perfection. He could win another stage or 2 as well just yet However, we now venture into the Hills, Mountains & Alps for the next 7 stages. Various category 1 climbs await as the tour hots up. Richie Porte is 11th overall but is only 1'53" behind the leader (Primoz Roglic) Top 5 might be his aim but the next few days might sort a few things out for the GC riders. After the rest day on Monday we have 3 consecutive days in the Alps with some grueling climbs involved.

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As Wadda has mentioned, let's try and keep our best bets to different races. Newcomers are always welcome but always remember that your best bet is for others to indulge in! We don't keep individual tallies, it's all about the team! Personally, I always give my choice a lot of thought. The horse has to jump out at me (Metaphorically speaking of course) Best Bet (Saturday) Flemington Race 7 No.9 Master of Wine (Place) $3.50

Apart from the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes there are a total of 6 x G2 races as well as 4 x Listed races to be run on Saturday. The carnival is starting to warm up with many of the good horses engaged. Good luck punters! Full Program Rosehill (Saturday) Fields, Form & Odds - Feature Events - Races 5, 6, 7 & 8 Full Program Flemington (Saturday) Fields, Form & Odds - Feature Events - Races 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8 & 9

Yeah I saw that Gorg Haven't really got anything else as a standout although I am having a few bets. However, I generally follow James McDonald on a Wednesday up in Sydney. He will often get 2 or 3 winners but is on a lot of the better horses. So look for the value is my tip. Or if you get hold of Gator's tips for Sandown (using those tips for the exotics?)

Games listed above ... post #7853 Chargers, Colts, Steelers

And the overseas Group 1's ... got a couple of winners out of this lot. Top notch racing

Replays from Saturday - Australia (overseas Group 1 replays in the following post)

Midweek Special (Wednesday) Sandown Race 9 No.5 Approach Discreet (Win) $6.50 ... D Oliver on board