Everything posted by Macca
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NFL
Jets (that's gotta be a first) Pats, Dallas
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A Day at the Races
I left 'Warning' out but kept looking at the horse thinking that it was going to ruin my strategy. Same for 'Mizzy' in the Golden Eagle. Ah what could have been but you can't include everything that you might fancy. Warning ran tremendously well too and was a more than worthy winner of the Derby. Nice quaddie dividend at Flemington all things considered Wadda. Kolding is some kind of horse too. Both are geldings so they'll race on. Warning looks a cup horse whilst Kolding is a true miler but might get the mile and a quarter. Runs quick too! Would have been close to the track record I'd say. Arcadia Queen was the disappointment as was Brutal. I ended up just below break even but went close to winning quite a bit. That's the beauty of horse racing though ... the chance to win big is always there.
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A Day at the Races
Best Bet Strike Rate This Week 8: 4 - 1 - 0 (and 2 of 3 that missed were almost sure things - go figure!) Last Week 6: 3 - 0 - 0 Well done to Gorg, GtB, DZ & Wadda for getting their tips over the line. As for the rest of us ... better luck next time! Australian Group Races
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A Day at the Races
Unable to copy & paste a screenshot of the Melbourne Cup field but here are a couple of handy links anyway. I'll try again later but someone else might have better luck re copying up a screenshot. Melbourne Cup Field, Form & Odds (Racenet) Melbourne Cup Odds & Evaluation (JustHorseRacing)
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A Day at the Races
And if all 5 of my picks salute the drinks are on me! Reckon 2 or 3 might get up but I'm hoping they will all get into the finish (obviously) I started getting into overseas racing mainly because I don't like betting on non Group racing. I prefer to have the class on my side so during our winter months and for days like the Breeders Cup and other such big days (Royal Ascot, British Champions Day and the l'Arc Meetings etc) I'm all over it. It's not for everyone but it is great racing all the same. The best of the best offers great value too (if you can find the winners) Here's the 'Santa Anita' Breeders Cup Card courtesy of RacingPost.com
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A Day at the Races
And I'm having a go at the big 'Breeders Cup' meeting overnight (Santa Anita) and then will look for the value Moreira & Purton runners at Sha Tin tomorrow. But overnight at Santa Anita there is a fabulous array of G1 races (9 in all) and it really is the creme de la creme of the American & European horses going for glory. Helps if you follow the overseas Group racing JV but because I do take a keen interest I find evaluating the form to be a not too difficult exercise. The familiar names jump out at you. Small win bets with a few doubles on the shorties is the go. For those that are interested the form guide, odds & tips are all readily available at www.racingpost.com. And all the local betting agencies allow for at least win, place & multi betting on the meeting. For what its worth here are a few of my picks R7 No.1 Iridessa R8 No.4 Mitole R9 No.6 Got Stormy R10 No.4 Midnight Bisou R11 No.10 Old Persian And I'll post up the Melbourne Cup field soon enough. Looks to be anyone's race this year though. I'm just going to box 6 in trifecta and hope for the best!
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A Day at the Races
This week's strike rate (which includes Wadda's mid week Bendigo Cup pick (Top of the Range) & 'GtB's 'Exceedence' tip. 8: 4 - 1 - 0
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NFL
Yeah that's a decent appraisal Dappa My 12 isn't a practical one as I didn't have a NFC East team in and only 5 AFC teams in the 12. But for what its worth I've got the Cowboys & Eagles in that 10-12 area. And a lot can change in a month or even in a week or 2. We could revisit the power index at the end of November just to compare lists. Others can obviously have a go too
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NFL
New page so here are the games again ...
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A Day at the Races
Best Bet Flemington Saturday Race 2 No.1 Flit (Win) $2.60
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NFL
Power index time? ... 1 through to 12 is the general rule but not necessarily 6 from each conference Here's my 12 ... 1 - New England 2 - New Orleans 3 - Green Bay 4 - San Francisco 5 - Seattle 6 - Minnesota 7 - Baltimore 8 - Kansas City 9 - Indianapolis 10 - Houston 11 - LA Rams 12 - Carolina
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A Day at the Races
Derby Day 2 years ago was when we kick-started this thread again and a lot has gone on in between. But here we are again with a fabulous day of racing ahead of us including a few big races out of Rosehill. Here are all the main features with all of them being good betting races. Good luck punters! Flemington - Hotham Hcp G3 $300K 2500m Flemington - Empire Rose Stakes G1 $1Million 1600m Flemington - Coolmore Stud Stakes G1 $1.5Million 1200m Flemington - Victoria Derby G1 $2Million 2500m Flemington - Kennedy Cantala Stakes G1 $2Million 1600m Rosehill - Rosehill Gold Cup $500k 2000m Rosehill - Golden Eagle $7.5Million 1500m Rosehill - Redzel Stakes $1Million 1300m In other breaking news ... Marmelo one of 2 Internationals pulled from Melbourne Cup
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NFL
2 big points on offer this week in the comp with at least 4 road favourites. But is one of those games a trap game? We'll find out soon enough as one of those games is being played on Friday. Surely the 49ers win ... surely! SNF looks the game of the round although MNF might spring a surprise whilst Friday's game might be closer than imagined. Maybe. Leaderboard in the Tipping Comp 8 - JV7, Go the Biff 7 - Dee Zephyr 5 - Dappa Dan, Layzie, Gorgoroth, Macca 4 - DeeSpencer, Clintosaurus
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A Day at the Races
Yep ... Pike does it. Fabulous ride too. In the end I had 'Top of the Range' on top as its form read very well. Went for the exacta in the end but a couple of times instead of a percentage of. Nice-ish dividend but the Tri & F4 paid well (if anyone got them) A terrific heads up on your part Wadda. I might just include that pick towards our weekend strike rate 1: 1 - 0 - 0
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A Day at the Races
Yeah I've included the Pike mount (Top of the Range) Hang Man is a real show. A Melbourne Cup berth might come the way of the Bendigo Cup winner. Depending on if a weight penalty applies. Those in line include Raheen House, Sully, Patrick Erin & Brimham Rocks. It will be a keenly contested race you'd imagine.
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A Day at the Races
My point was a broad one Wadda ... not ever directed at you. I just happened to be quoting you. With the 6+ best bets I might pinpoint 3 but I might prefer to have a few doubles. The right combo in a double (using best bets) can deliver up to 12-1 odds. And that's a good collect if it gets up (as we found out on Monday morning re MB!) What do you like in the Bendigo Cup?
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A Day at the Races
I will be having a trifecta on the Bendigo Cup and it is a good betting race all round (especially for trifecta punters) I like Raheen House as well JV and it does seem a good each-way chance at $6.50. 'Captain Cook' & 'Angel of Truth' can get into the finish as well. But it's a wide-open betting affair. Angel of Truth has been racing in some very good Group races recently so that horse's form line reads better when that is taken into account. Wed 30th Oct Bendigo Cup 2400m $400k
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2020 AFL Fixture
I expect a softer draw but the draw almost certainly won't be a financially rewarding draw (prime time FTA games & more home games against the big Vic teams will probably be at a minimum ... and home games against interstate teams will probably be plentiful) But as LH mentioned, we've got 2 home blockbusters against the Pies & Tigers and the NT money will roll in again ($800k per game) And the pokies money (for now) So we've protected ourselves (somewhat) against a non financially rewarding draw. So a softer draw kind of suits for a team that needs to find its mojo again. I prefer the team to be constantly tested but we're going to be tested next season anyway. A draw that allows the team to win 10+ games would be ideal for the supporter base though. The first 6 games holds the key in terms of the draw and in terms of whether we can start off with a positive W/L ratio.
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A Day at the Races
I've got a mate who is similar. Doesn't bet but follows the horses closely and knows about all the breeding and the history of winners. His knowledge is immense so I still like to get his tips as he's often right on the mark.
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NFL
Here is a 100 minute highlights package of today's games ... the audio is a bit dodgy but I believe all the games are covered
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A Day at the Races
I do too (the full combo) but was just noting that we shouldn't necessarily post up here (beforehand) what our preferences are within the full combination. And I'm not saying that anyone would but we don't want to be dismissing picks we don't prefer (before any of the races are run) I like the idea of any number of contributors to the thread and if that means we end up with any number of best bets then we can use any of the picks to our advantage (as individuals) Similarly I don't like the 'lay of the day' posts. At all. You end up with a mish-mash of negatives if everyone was to do it. And it effectively rains on people's parades as well.
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NFL
Really exciting game via audio only but I watched the highlights and it looked like a ripper game to watch Rodgers was just incredible but Jones was terrific. And the D did their bit. As you said, Moore played very well The KC fumble decided the game though. You can't give Rodgers chances like that.
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A Day at the Races
And of course it's always better to talk about how we configured our best (from the best) after the event Wadda Works the same way as say perhaps a 'lay of the day' which might end up potting someone's pick (inadvertently per se) I'm sure we all put a bit of effort into our picks so I prefer to take them all on face value and sort out my preferences in the background. Just a thought.
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A Day at the Races
Oh and if you get a chance GtB let us know your best bet for the weekend. But only if you've got the time of course. We're now working on picking the eyes out of all the tips as we (as individuals) see fit. Plus, a small outlay on a massive paying super-multi. We're allowed to dream because after all, we're all Demons here! Otherwise, good luck on the punt!
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Monkey Business
Free scoring teams that win at home is the go-to measurement Wadda And then the value to be added to get the odds. As you said, 12-1 is good odds. I've felt confident with our picks on every occasion so I reckon we just keep going the way we are. A banker or 2 makes sense or maybe 3 value picks when it falls that way.