Everything posted by Macca
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NFL
Really exciting game via audio only but I watched the highlights and it looked like a ripper game to watch Rodgers was just incredible but Jones was terrific. And the D did their bit. As you said, Moore played very well The KC fumble decided the game though. You can't give Rodgers chances like that.
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A Day at the Races
And of course it's always better to talk about how we configured our best (from the best) after the event Wadda Works the same way as say perhaps a 'lay of the day' which might end up potting someone's pick (inadvertently per se) I'm sure we all put a bit of effort into our picks so I prefer to take them all on face value and sort out my preferences in the background. Just a thought.
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A Day at the Races
Oh and if you get a chance GtB let us know your best bet for the weekend. But only if you've got the time of course. We're now working on picking the eyes out of all the tips as we (as individuals) see fit. Plus, a small outlay on a massive paying super-multi. We're allowed to dream because after all, we're all Demons here! Otherwise, good luck on the punt!
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Monkey Business
Free scoring teams that win at home is the go-to measurement Wadda And then the value to be added to get the odds. As you said, 12-1 is good odds. I've felt confident with our picks on every occasion so I reckon we just keep going the way we are. A banker or 2 makes sense or maybe 3 value picks when it falls that way.
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A Day at the Races
Here are the 2 races in question (Longchamp) Run on a heavy track so a number of scratchings ... but Dettori gets another Group 1 winner for the season (albeit in a canter) Is that 19 Group1 winners for the season?
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A Day at the Races
Thanks for that GtB. Excellent analysis. First rate. Well we at least know we stand and where we sit in the whole scheme of things And to get to a point of where we'd produce an abundance of great middle distance runners and stayers would take quite some time. And that's if we started now In the meantime Aussie punters will just have to take a much greater interest in overseas racing and to read up on overseas form in a more analytical way. Sites such as Racingpost & RacingUK are very good for form analysis I like to highlight some overseas racing here on this site but punters are generally only really interested if they're betting on a race. Which is quite easy to do these days. For instance ... I had a double at Longchamp last night (2 x G1 races) Got the first winner up (down to 2 runners!) whilst the 2nd leg runner was scratched. Very small collect but a win is a win.
- Monkey Business
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A Day at the Races
A few replays from yesterday and today (including another stunning victory by 'Almond Eye' in the Tenno Sho - run today)
- Monkey Business
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A Day at the Races
James Jordan (JJ) once said that if he was punting to win money only that he would only bet at Darwin. His reckoning was that there are limited amount of horses running up there and they are always racing against each other. Therefore the form became easy to evaluate. Partly explains why JJ does so well tipping at Morphettville. Same horses running around with a 2 or 3 week break in between.
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A Day at the Races
I am like that at Sha Tin ... I found a tipping website with a whole host of tipsters battling away but none of them are any good. Golden rule is to follow Purton & Moreira up there because not only are they clearly the best 2 jockeys but they're often on the best horses. But Sha Tin racing isn't for everyone. For me, it's one of my favourite racing venues (along with Flemington & Randwick) Down here most of the tipsters are quite average except for Gator & JJ. Both are quite brilliant and to ignore either is asking for trouble. They know their stuff and their biases are fairly minor. Let's face it, they know more than we could ever know but most tipsters have some sort of bias. And you can't be biased when on the punt. That's their issue. Bias. For instance, I've got a mate (older) who has so many biases (hates the Sydney way of going, various trainers, various jockeys etc etc) that I often wonder how he could possibly ever win! Actually, he doesn't win very often so there you go. I like to take it all in and then filter out the rubbish. But in the end there is an enormous amount of luck involved. It's not like footy where it often boils down to list quality vs list quality. i.e if you've got enough good players you can win and if you haven't got enough good players you won't win. Horse racing is often quite different. e.g Bivouac was a moral beaten on Friday might ... locked in and couldn't get out. That's racing.
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A Day at the Races
As an aside, the strength of the Japan horses over the middle distances and as stayers dates back a few decades when they decided to buy up as many USA Derby winners as was possible. Dating back to one horse in particular (I've forgotten the name of the horse) where the bloodlines continue on to this day. So it was a long term plan. And that is what it takes to be highly competitive in a now Worldwide racing industry Thankfully our sprinter/miler stocks and bloodlines are very strong so that's where our strengths lie (1000m up to a mile) And NSW racing has taken up the slack with regards to those types of races. Smart thinking DZ
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A Day at the Races
The English racing identity 'Matt Chapman' gave the Hayes clan (and the owners*) a serve after they sacked Nolen and mentioned that there was no justification in doing so. And I agree with him. And now they've got got their just deserts and are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Stubborness will possibly win out so I don't expect Nolen to be reinstated. And if one was to watch the Caulfield Cup again (closely) it's hard to see what Nolen did wrong. It was a roughhouse affair at times and he just got caight up in it. As did a number of other jockeys. In an 18 horse field over 2400m at a tight course like Caulfield - what do people expect? *Coolmore are the principle owners of Constantinople
- Monkey Business
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A Day at the Races
Yes it was a great fighting win by Amangiri ... had a little on for the win but I never load up these days. Prefer to have a small interest in a number of races Wadda. And last night that system of betting paid off with Loving Gaby & Vital Silver in the Manikato Stakes. 'Sale Cup' on tomorrow to keep things ticking over. Fancy 'Romancer' to get into the finish but 'Mr Money Bags' might run a bold race. They run for $200k ... it's race 8 for those with an interest.
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A Day at the Races
I follow a couple of tipsters (David Gately & James Jordan) and they are both a big help. Especially if you're an exotics punter. They have their off days but 1 of them is usually on their game most weekends. Gator & JJ's tips are listed on www.racing.com.au. JJ is wasted in Adelaide though. He'd dominate if he was based out of Sydney. The trouble with Morphettville are that the fields are too small and there is a limited amount of value to be had. He quite regularly picks 4 or 5 winners most Saturday's though. Footnote: Gator tipped 4 of the last 5 winners at Randwick today (tips were available at www.skyracing.com.au) He also tipped 3 winners at the Valley.
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A Day at the Races
I like to find positives when it comes to sport Wadda ... but sometimes those positives are hard to find! So the more the merrier when it comes to the best bets I say. We can sort it all out as individuals (as you've done) Just so long as we don't compete with each other by keeping each race as a seperate pick. First in, best dressed so to speak. We could end up with a 12 pick multi (which gets up) and in turn clean out the TAB of their complete funds!
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2020 AFL Fixture
The weekend can't be ruined until the last possible moment? And if we win then the working week starts off in the best possible way.
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Barassi vs Dean
I know a few older Tiger fans diets and they reckon that Dean was moved to the half forward flank to act as a 'Minder' for Royce Hart.
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A Day at the Races
I thought about it but you know what 'thought' did? Busy at work again of course but they were the 3 standouts (and that's with no disrespect to the 3 other picks) It's just what jumps out at you Wadda. And because we now will probably have the choice of 6 picks, picking the eyes out of the 6 should be looked upon as a bonus. And as individuals each one of us wants to deliver a winner and that's another plus. But tradition says we only keep the team score rather than individual strike rates. I also reckon we now don't need to necessarily look for value with our picks. Standout winners only thank you very much!
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NFL
Seattle, Eagles, Packers
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A Day at the Races
Well we went 3 from 6 today which is a vast improvement on last week (zip) All 3 that got up tightened in the market but 3-1 could be had on Lys Gracieux (BM) & Amangiri early doors. And Master of Wine (DZ) was a moral. I coffee outlay on all 6 races could have returned 10 coffees. And the 3 that won was a standout multi within the multi. Especially Lys Gracieux & Master of Wine. This week 6: 3 - 0 - 0
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A Day at the Races
Lys Gracieux a class above ... thought Castelvecchio had stolen a march with the lightweight but the winner was far too good in the end. Winx-like acceleration over the last 2 furlongs. Seemed like a cleanly run race and there weren't too many hard luck stories.
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A Day at the Races
The Cox Plate field is a very good one too ... much better than the last few years with the skinny fields and Winx dominating. I'm with BM's tip of Lys Gracieux although luck always plays a big part at the Valley. The horse will at least avoid getting locked in on the fence being from an outside barrier. A few of the pundits are predicting that the horse will race on the speed. Class should prevail. My preference is a wide exacta with 1 or 2 value winners and 1 or 2 value runners to get into 2nd. And a 'Spec' F4 just because it could pay a small fortune with the right combo. My value runners are Te Akau Shark, Verry Elleegent, Avilius & Magic Wand. But there are any number of chances with the Japanese horse on top. It is a very good field
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A Day at the Races
Good job Wadda 'Vital Silver' was the one that pushed the exotics right up ... and its form was very good too but was way overs. Finished 2 lengths behind Sunlight & Santa Ana Lane in the Gilgai And its WA form was quite sparkling. We both found the loophole. Gotta love that. Speaking of WA horses ... the grey 'Pounamu' (a former ADATR favourite) is running in the Crystal Mile tomorrow. With Craig Williams on board. 8 years old now but it might get a place. I have to include it in the exotics being an old favourite. A sentimental inclusion though.