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Everything posted by Macca
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Ha ha! Spoken like a true punter! I reckon it's more the Hayes camp for those "Stablemate's" saluting. Gets a lot of 10-1 shots winning too. They set certain horses for certain races and they are very good at it. Pity we're often none the wiser beforehand. As for Waller ... he's got the cream of the good horses and lots of them. Stands to reason he'll win a lot (especially the Group races) Feel free to chime in with your best bet on the weekend too Wrecker. We've got about 7 or 8 participants and it's a bit of fun. We went 8: 4 - 1 - 0 last weekend.
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There have only been 2 road wins this week and you've nailed both Gorg. A trap round for road favourites that is for sure. Smart move leaving out the Pats & Packers as you only now need Dallas to get up to get the 2 points one-out. But it's Dallas! Good luck!
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I have narrowed it down to 8 - 10 winning chances Wrecker and there are possibly another 5 or 6 that could get into the finish. Might be 10-1 the field in terms of which horses are the punters favourites. It is said every year but this year's race is the most wide open I can ever remember. And we don't know a great deal about many of the horses. I'm going to use the Cailfield Cup as a guide but with zero confidence. In the end boxing 6 in the exotics is probably the go. And then you have to get lucky. Finche & Constantinople probably go in but who knows? Il Paradiso is being talked about. Mer de Glace? Vow And Declare?
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Weekend Special France Ligue1 Bordeaux vs Nantes (Monday 1.00am) Bordeaux (Win) & +2.5 Goals Match Score $4.50
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I couldn't find anything that jumped out at me but I usually cherry-pick the Purton & Moreira mounts and go down the exotics path. And that's what I've done today It should be noted that Purton's strike rate is down a bit this season whilst Moreira is riding really well. And both jockeys are more often than not on the best horses in nearly every race that they are engaged in. Race 7 (G3 Feature) is a good betting race though (trifecta or F4?) and I'd expect one of Exultant (Purton), Dark Dream (Moreira) or Furore (Teetan) to greet the judge.
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Well you are the 'Caulfield Correspondent' so that would be expected Wadda! And there are only 2 Australian bred horses in the Cup field (Vow And Declare & Youngstar) but Vow And Declare has got a real shot at Cup glory if we're using the Caulfield Cup as a guide. Here's Stephen Brassel's runner-by-runner guide to the Melbourne Cup
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2 x wins and 2 x 2nds out of the 5. Got a nice collect on Iridessa but the 12k multi didn't salute! In front though and the racing was terrific. Next stop overseas in the next couple of months is up in Japan (1 × big G1 every Sunday until late Dec) & Hong Kong (Sun Nov 17th & Sun Dec 8th with 3 or 4 group races on each day) But some of us here have a dabble at the WA summer carnival at Ascot through late Nov and all of Dec (although the first port of call is nearly always Willie Pike with those big races over there)
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Yep, a good track might have seen a few of the more fancied runners get into the finish or even win. I was keen on Flit, Zoutori & Shadow Hero but all 3 just couldn't make up the ground from the back. Bivouac is another who struggles a bit when the going is a Soft7 or worse. Where as Exceedence likes it wet. They still ran good times in the sprint races though so the better horses won on the day. No real excuses as we knew the conditions early on. Warning & Kolding are the 2 standouts for me. Melody Belle as well as Exceedence were both excellent and the connections of Pierata picked up an extra $750k along with the $580k first prize for winning the Redzel Stakes. That $750k was up for any Everest runner that ran in the Redzel Stakes and won. Nice work if you can get it!
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Jets (that's gotta be a first) Pats, Dallas
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I left 'Warning' out but kept looking at the horse thinking that it was going to ruin my strategy. Same for 'Mizzy' in the Golden Eagle. Ah what could have been but you can't include everything that you might fancy. Warning ran tremendously well too and was a more than worthy winner of the Derby. Nice quaddie dividend at Flemington all things considered Wadda. Kolding is some kind of horse too. Both are geldings so they'll race on. Warning looks a cup horse whilst Kolding is a true miler but might get the mile and a quarter. Runs quick too! Would have been close to the track record I'd say. Arcadia Queen was the disappointment as was Brutal. I ended up just below break even but went close to winning quite a bit. That's the beauty of horse racing though ... the chance to win big is always there.
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Best Bet Strike Rate This Week 8: 4 - 1 - 0 (and 2 of 3 that missed were almost sure things - go figure!) Last Week 6: 3 - 0 - 0 Well done to Gorg, GtB, DZ & Wadda for getting their tips over the line. As for the rest of us ... better luck next time! Australian Group Races
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Unable to copy & paste a screenshot of the Melbourne Cup field but here are a couple of handy links anyway. I'll try again later but someone else might have better luck re copying up a screenshot. Melbourne Cup Field, Form & Odds (Racenet) Melbourne Cup Odds & Evaluation (JustHorseRacing)
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And if all 5 of my picks salute the drinks are on me! Reckon 2 or 3 might get up but I'm hoping they will all get into the finish (obviously) I started getting into overseas racing mainly because I don't like betting on non Group racing. I prefer to have the class on my side so during our winter months and for days like the Breeders Cup and other such big days (Royal Ascot, British Champions Day and the l'Arc Meetings etc) I'm all over it. It's not for everyone but it is great racing all the same. The best of the best offers great value too (if you can find the winners) Here's the 'Santa Anita' Breeders Cup Card courtesy of RacingPost.com
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And I'm having a go at the big 'Breeders Cup' meeting overnight (Santa Anita) and then will look for the value Moreira & Purton runners at Sha Tin tomorrow. But overnight at Santa Anita there is a fabulous array of G1 races (9 in all) and it really is the creme de la creme of the American & European horses going for glory. Helps if you follow the overseas Group racing JV but because I do take a keen interest I find evaluating the form to be a not too difficult exercise. The familiar names jump out at you. Small win bets with a few doubles on the shorties is the go. For those that are interested the form guide, odds & tips are all readily available at www.racingpost.com. And all the local betting agencies allow for at least win, place & multi betting on the meeting. For what its worth here are a few of my picks R7 No.1 Iridessa R8 No.4 Mitole R9 No.6 Got Stormy R10 No.4 Midnight Bisou R11 No.10 Old Persian And I'll post up the Melbourne Cup field soon enough. Looks to be anyone's race this year though. I'm just going to box 6 in trifecta and hope for the best!
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This week's strike rate (which includes Wadda's mid week Bendigo Cup pick (Top of the Range) & 'GtB's 'Exceedence' tip. 8: 4 - 1 - 0
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Yeah that's a decent appraisal Dappa My 12 isn't a practical one as I didn't have a NFC East team in and only 5 AFC teams in the 12. But for what its worth I've got the Cowboys & Eagles in that 10-12 area. And a lot can change in a month or even in a week or 2. We could revisit the power index at the end of November just to compare lists. Others can obviously have a go too
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New page so here are the games again ...
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Best Bet Flemington Saturday Race 2 No.1 Flit (Win) $2.60
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Power index time? ... 1 through to 12 is the general rule but not necessarily 6 from each conference Here's my 12 ... 1 - New England 2 - New Orleans 3 - Green Bay 4 - San Francisco 5 - Seattle 6 - Minnesota 7 - Baltimore 8 - Kansas City 9 - Indianapolis 10 - Houston 11 - LA Rams 12 - Carolina
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Derby Day 2 years ago was when we kick-started this thread again and a lot has gone on in between. But here we are again with a fabulous day of racing ahead of us including a few big races out of Rosehill. Here are all the main features with all of them being good betting races. Good luck punters! Flemington - Hotham Hcp G3 $300K 2500m Flemington - Empire Rose Stakes G1 $1Million 1600m Flemington - Coolmore Stud Stakes G1 $1.5Million 1200m Flemington - Victoria Derby G1 $2Million 2500m Flemington - Kennedy Cantala Stakes G1 $2Million 1600m Rosehill - Rosehill Gold Cup $500k 2000m Rosehill - Golden Eagle $7.5Million 1500m Rosehill - Redzel Stakes $1Million 1300m In other breaking news ... Marmelo one of 2 Internationals pulled from Melbourne Cup
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2 big points on offer this week in the comp with at least 4 road favourites. But is one of those games a trap game? We'll find out soon enough as one of those games is being played on Friday. Surely the 49ers win ... surely! SNF looks the game of the round although MNF might spring a surprise whilst Friday's game might be closer than imagined. Maybe. Leaderboard in the Tipping Comp 8 - JV7, Go the Biff 7 - Dee Zephyr 5 - Dappa Dan, Layzie, Gorgoroth, Macca 4 - DeeSpencer, Clintosaurus
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Yep ... Pike does it. Fabulous ride too. In the end I had 'Top of the Range' on top as its form read very well. Went for the exacta in the end but a couple of times instead of a percentage of. Nice-ish dividend but the Tri & F4 paid well (if anyone got them) A terrific heads up on your part Wadda. I might just include that pick towards our weekend strike rate 1: 1 - 0 - 0
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Yeah I've included the Pike mount (Top of the Range) Hang Man is a real show. A Melbourne Cup berth might come the way of the Bendigo Cup winner. Depending on if a weight penalty applies. Those in line include Raheen House, Sully, Patrick Erin & Brimham Rocks. It will be a keenly contested race you'd imagine.
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My point was a broad one Wadda ... not ever directed at you. I just happened to be quoting you. With the 6+ best bets I might pinpoint 3 but I might prefer to have a few doubles. The right combo in a double (using best bets) can deliver up to 12-1 odds. And that's a good collect if it gets up (as we found out on Monday morning re MB!) What do you like in the Bendigo Cup?
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I will be having a trifecta on the Bendigo Cup and it is a good betting race all round (especially for trifecta punters) I like Raheen House as well JV and it does seem a good each-way chance at $6.50. 'Captain Cook' & 'Angel of Truth' can get into the finish as well. But it's a wide-open betting affair. Angel of Truth has been racing in some very good Group races recently so that horse's form line reads better when that is taken into account. Wed 30th Oct Bendigo Cup 2400m $400k