Winners at last

Injuries to key players ... 

2 hours ago, binman said:

I was gunner say yes, but decided not to.

It certainly the sort of night you might rin into a werewolf

It's fair to say I was an excitable boy that night.

No lawyers ... or guns .... or money?

3 minutes ago, binman said:

Speaking of Baxter tavern, one of my top 10 ever gigs was there in aprox 1990. Maybe top 5.

Long story, but I had a mate who lived in baxter who I'd often visit. 

One of the all time great songwriters, Warren zevon was playing solo at, of all places, the Baxter tavern.

I went to my mates place with the plan to see the gig with my mate and another friend of ours.

Unbelievably, both friends ended up deciding to bail at the ast minute, even though Warren bloody zevon was playing just up the road.

So I went solo, and flying high I might add.

The first thing Warren would have done after the gig was sack his mananager for booking the gig.

The Baxter tavern is a sketchy beer barn that is, or was, in the middle of bloody nowhere, surrounded by paddocks - and it was a freezing winter night

I walked in just as Warren say down at a grand piano. 

There was maybe 15 other people there - and to be honest I felt embarrassed that so few people had comme to see a legend of music.

But he was incredible. Played wirh passion and verve, as if there were 10, 000 people there. Masterful.

I could walk to the bar, get a pot and back to my spot in under a minuter.

And my spot was almost right in front of him, so I could see close up his piano skills and hear his voice direct from the stage.

Noone bumping into me, none even close to where I was standing. It felt as if he performing just for me. He almost was.

He played for nearly two hours, and never once flagged or went through the motions. Gave me a cool nod when he finished

He was a brilliant writer, one of the sharpest and most intelligent in rock. Smart, funny at times, but also acerbic and often angry.

And in that environment, so close, and just him and his piano, the lyrics felt so powerful and personal.

And his voice was to die for - magnificent depth, so rich and emotive.

I feel emotional just thinking about it now, some 30 plus years later.

Transcendental experience.

Wow .... that's awesome. A true legend ... RIP.

Not quite the same, but I had an awesome experience on Friday night. Went to a corporate function (CEO was retiring) at Crown Palladium, 800 there ... they had a special surprise guest. The CEO told everyone to get on the dance floor. Then doors behind him opened ...   It was Robbie Williams, with full band/dancers!! At first I thought it was an impersonator, but no ... it was actually Robbie Williams! Flew out especially for the private show.

Even Triplechins (MC for the night) was on the dancefloor, and was videoing the show.

I'm still in shock.

Has he actually admitted guilt?

Lisa Wilkinson says hi.

Shame there were no AFL/VFL players with the surnames Wakeman, Emerson, Argent or Rolie!

But how could you not include any of the Lord boys in deference/with reference to the late, great Jon Lord !!!!

I wish Preuss was still on our list.

14 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

I do wonder what happened an hour later though!!

11 minutes ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

Geez ! He's a smartarse little [censored] but you've gotta love Toby Green. Gun player. 

What do you think of Weightman? 5 goals to half time ... no free kicks either.

GWS v Doggins  ... entertaining match. It's a goalfest, virtually no defence by either side.

12 minutes ago, binman said:

Ours or rhe lions?

We have lost our last three.

But the lions have lost 2 of their last 4 and tbe the two wins were far from impressive.

They were 5 goals down early against the giants and only the giants woeful defence saved them. 

And they were woeful in their win against the saints. The saints were had two players concussed by half time (or soon after) and by the last quarter were down to one player on the bench.

It's been a long time since I have seen such a low standard game between two good teams.

Hmm,  I just put some money on the Gorillas. (Considerably less than a gorilla though.)

12 minutes ago, layzie said:

Winners at last please tell me you thought Crisp's handball to Cox for his goal on Monday was a throw. I just want to find one person that agrees with me on this 😝

Of course it was.

10 hours ago, Ollie fan said:

An absolute throw by Cripps when tackled, in Richmond forward line – no free. Some players are untouchable.

As I've posted several times before, I don't understand why the commentators don't call this out. More relevant than most of their air filling.

AFL directive not to criticise umpires?

5 hours ago, binman said:

That's the correct conclusion, but a slighty wrong premise. 

The bookies frame the initial market. And that is very much based on their assessment of the 'true odds' of a certain event occurring, in this case the dees winning the flag.

The better they are at this assessment the more money they make.

That is because the art of punting is finding value - which means making your own assessment of the true odds and backing 'overs' (ie over the true odds). Successful punters are good at this assessment (and disciplined enough not to accept 'unders' or search for a bet for a bets sake) and look to take advantage of any overs. So bookies who get that initial price wrong lose money.

In this scenario, when the bookies opened the 2022 GF market last year, their assessment of the true odds of the dees winning the flag was something like $3.20 (which was the price the dees opened).  

From that point the 'market' determines the odds the bookies offer. The market is punters betting.

So, early doors, we start winning, look like the best tam in the AFL, and the punters come for us and slam the $3.60. The bookies then respond by trimming the odds of the dees (and 'turning out' the odds of other contenders) to limit the hit to their bottom line if the dees do win the flag and to balance their overall exposure.

And we start losing and our price drifts and other contenders tighten.  

So in fact your conclusion caries even more weight. A punter backing the dees is putting their own hard earned money on  us - it is not some unaccountable prognostication.

The bigger the pool of money, the more people are backing up their assessment of who will win the flag.

And the bigger the pool the more it is dominated by professional punters who make a living out of punting, so are clear eyed and unemotional about their betting choices. 

For some bet types the pool is so small the price offered for a particular bet isn't a good indication of the true odds. But in big pools the price is an excellent indication of the true odds.

There is likely to be something in the order of $1.5 million dollars in the Sportsbet GF pool, so you can be pretty confident $3.60 is pretty close to the true odds of us winning a flag.

I'm amazed it hasn't drifted further after our loss to the pies and the news about gawn being out for 5 weeks.

What that indicates is that the pros (who are the ones that have the most influence on the price) have not backed any of the other contenders to any great degree and the market still has us as clear favorites to win the flag.  

 

The starting odds for the Swans ($4.20) and the filth ($4) offered by Sportsbet were ridiculously generous. The odds reduced in the following days.

I put money on both these sides, and won a tidy sum. Or should that be tidy sums? Having said that, I would have preferred to lose my money by seeing the Dees win.

I never bet on the Dees ... if they lost it would feel like I was punished twice.

I have totally avoided all replays + football shows since Monday. Can't stand hearing about our apparent demise, and the rise of the filth.

Will probably continue to do so until the Brisbane match.

6 hours ago, Kent said:

How long does it take for a syndesmosis injury to heal?

 

 

How long does syndesmosis take to heal? Syndesmosis injuries generally involve a period of immobilisation for 4-6 weeks depending on severity. (Yes that means a moon boot!) Following this we allow a further 6-12 weeks for a full recovery.20 Apr 2021

 

Not Good if true!!!!!😢

Oh no ... 4 - 6 !!!

Hmm, has anyone considered we may be loading?   🤔

I think seeing the filth lose is almost as good as seeing the Dees win.

And the reverse is also true.

Hunt played forward a few years ago, and wasn't bad. He does at least compete, led pretty well and was an OK kick for goal. Perhaps worth another go there?

I think Chandler is a bust. 

Tommo was a disaster on the wing and up forward. 

Too many players are underdone ... Salem/Langdon/Hibberd/Petracca/Lever. (Hibbert came off after 5 minutes in Q1 and was gassed! He did well having regard to that.)

The second/third tier players have been found wanting when the A graders weren't dominating - ANB, Spargo, Sparrow, Harmes, Bowey.

Just now, Winners at last said:

Socceroos win penalty shootout v Peru and through to World Cup Finals. Well done!

Socceroos need to find a way (or ways) to actually score goals in open play.

On 6/9/2022 at 3:15 PM, roy11 said:

If there was a "IS GRAHAM ARNOLD THE RIGHT MAN?" thread it would be full of 122142141241 pages of people saying no.

 

Socceroos win penalty shootout v Peru and through to World Cup Finals.

Socceroos need to find a way (or ways) to actually score goals in open play.

This thread heading didn't age well ....

Hmm, the only thing enjoyable about that match was loading up on the filth @ $4. 

A few problems ....  injuries, marked drop in skill level - fumbling, missing targets, failing to make a contest in the air, let alone take contested marks, players woefully out of form.

I hate the filth.

1 minute ago, Roger Mellie said:

Give it a rest. You must have clocked up 300 posts just chiming in to pot Wiedeman. I get you're not the most positive poster but jeez it's tedious.

Are you the man on the telly?

P.S.  I love Viz.

Are we still Narrn?

Sadly Narrn hasn't won a match.