speed demon

I'm also keen on seeing this forward 7 in action but agree it's hard to do so. If all players are available (and Tomo holds his form), I can't find a spot for Swarrow, let alone Jordon, Bowey and Spargo (all who I like for various reasons) if Smith is in the team. In this unlikely event, Smith may be an excellent sub option given his versatility (though I like JJ in this role too). Good times!

Lots of great posts in this thread but this one is my favourite. Convincingly beat the premiership favourites and this is the first post in the postgame thread! Timing is everything in comedy!

Agree. I'd been saying Smith and Tomlinson were playing to keep their spot from Petty. However, Smith has impressed so much with his defensive efforts (especially his desperate chasing & tackling), he's endangering our small forwards.

Goodwin receives excessive criticism on here. I hope some of his critics can appreciates today's masterclass.

Everyone: “Won’t beat CFC if we don’t take our chances.” MFC: “hold my beer!”

Love Smith’s athleticism and intensity. Plays like someone who’s spent a decade trying to make it but been sabotaged by injury and, suddenly, has a chance to be a premiership player…

JVR seems to have the qualities to be a big game player. Going into beast mode in the 4th quarter against RFC has been my season highlight - for the spectacle and the potential it portended. Too much to ask for a repeat performance, but if he can play like he did against CFC, it will go a looong way towards us kicking a competitive score.

Hard to argue Oliver's omission doesn't reduce our chances of winning though obviously those chances have not been reduced to zero. While we are looking for silver linings, it's likely Chandler will get a full game. In a season of experimenting with our forward line structure, I think this is important. The viability of playing a low-scoring 'defensive' forward (i.e. Petty and even more so Smith) correlates to the output of our high-scoring small forwards (i.e. Picket and Chandler). If the set-up against Carlton works, Petty can return as the 2nd key defender. That's probably our best whole-team defensive set up which may be appealing to our "defence first" coach. If Chandler goes cold and Smith (or Petty) are not scoring, Brown becomes a much more attractive option at the expense of F50 defensiveness.

Given our number of quality players in their prime - and thus the difficulty of breaking into the 22 - I would favour trading picks to move up the order. There's always openings for absolute top level talent but I think we'll struggle to give three first rounders the opportunities they need to develop optimally. Shame to have another James Jordon situation of a potential 200 game player limited to being a depth player (noting that JJ was pick 33 and not first round which would be even worse).

Similar to above. I have ticket for M14, row 6, seat 9. Let me know if interested & able. Would be great to know my seat is being filled by a Demonlander.

Fascinating glimpse into the possibilities of analysis using big data and machine learning! A simple take away for those who may not wish to read the article is that "kicking efficiency" is a fundamentally flawed statistic due to the way an efficient kick is define: a kick that goes to a teammate or over 40m to a contest. That means, if May is on the forward 50m arc - with Fritsch alone in the goal square - and sprays the ball wide to a contest between Mason Cox and Spargo, while MFC supporter's head's will explode the statisticians dutifully record an effective kick. A more advanced assessment of kicking efficiency would involve measuring the proportion of kicks that are retained or result in scores.

Great podcast! Kudos also to all those who submitted interested and well-informed questions. BUT SERIOUSLY! Mentioning "loading" without first issuing a trigger warning??!! Read the room or you'll be cancelled!

Every week there are predictions of omitting Spargo, ANB or Sparrow. Every second week Pickett gets thrown in. Yet, in the last three years there have been two more earthquakes in Melbourne than omissions of any of the above.

This false narrative plays to the popular stereotype of Dees supporters as fickle and elitist. The media enjoy perpetuating it as the public laps it up. If it enrages Dees supporters, all the better to drive their engagement (eg talk back radio, clicking on articles). No eloquent arguments based on evidence (our match attendance relative to membership number is actually one of the highest in the AFL) is persuasive. Can't reason someone out of something they were never reasoned into in the first place.

Thx for the link - Scotts comments are interesting. This is how I see things. The differing priorities of the coaches (i.e. premiership success) and the media (i.e. consumer engagement) give rise to the conflicting perspectives (macro vs micro). Thus, the media amplifies the significance of each action, player performance or match to drive engagement while the coaches tend to de-emphasise. This leads to the inference that clubs regularly make decisions in the interest of premiership success at the expense of optimising weekly success (eg increased training loads for later pay offs, managing/resting players, trialing players in different positions or employing new tactics). This would be an uncomfortable truth for the AFL as it compromises the integrity of the betting markets; clearly knowing how much club's have prioritised a particular match up would be valuable intelligence. This is also not in the interests of the media to widely report ("...expect a scrappy, error-riddled, low-scoring game tonight as the Demons come into this game off a hard week on the track..." hardly stirs excitement). Especially when the media is controlled by the AFL. All of this pollutes the quality of analysis regarding the reasons for a team's form.

Thx @binman. Always enjoy reading your thoughts. I like that you've put yourself on the line by using your hypothesis to generate some predictions and given us specific means of testing those predictions (i.e. a better performance against the Pies and scrappy, low quality games against Cats and Giants). Like most watching the Blues game, I was pleased to see our whole-of-team defensive system again taking shape but frustrated by our inefficient ball use. Watching "Roaming Brian" (it's like a car crash - awful but hard to look away), I was surprised by the immediate reactions of Yze, Richardson and Goodwin. Each seemed disproportionately pleased with the performance (i.e. a scrappy 17 point win over a struggling team). Perhaps they're appraising the performance in a context unknown to outsiders (e.g. player fatigue levels due to training loads). (Apologies for tarnishing this thread with such low quality speculation 😬)

I think they picked Smith for the Carlton game with a view to also playing him against Collingwood in a defensive role on Moore. See what this set up looks like before considering Brown after the bye if moving well.

Yes, agree completely. That's what I learnt on Friday night. JVR doesn't just have the potential to be an excellent 1 or 2 pony - he's going to be the whole circus.

What I liked most about JVR's game was the diverse range of attributes on display. Of course we know he can mark but I didn't realise how sharp we was with ball handling in congestion and running at speed. I knew we was fast but I'm so impressed with his endurance for a young KP player. Also great composure and decision-making that is beyond his years. I know I'm going over the top but he reminds me of Wayne Carey - except he also seems a great character. Going to be very difficult for the league's best defenders to contain him in a few years. Looks like a future captain. Alright, I'll stop now.

That's the thing. Some people think the last three minutes of the third quarter of GF was how played for the entirety of 2021. Recall the loss to GWS. Their midfielders waltzed out of centre bounces and our forward line was anaemic (picture high kicks to Spargo matched against two tall defenders...). Re-read the postgame thread; midfield rubbish, Fritsch to be dropped, Goodwin to be sacked. Form fluctuates. Sustained success is hard. Premierships are a possibility not a certainty.

In a sense, Tomlinson and Smith were our weakest players. Yet, by playing their role, both our defensive and forward structure looked much improved. Tomlinson's releasing of Lever to play interceptor - thus improving our defensive unit - has been well commented on. Less cited, has been Smith's contribution to the long-awaited return of 2021-style high intensity pressure inside our F50. To better assess individual performance, we need to move beyond analysing individual stats to comparing unit / team performance when the Individual is present/absent. Smith will kick less goals than Brown but the team may well kick more goals with Smith. Now the experiment has been commenced, give it a decent evaluation. Tomlinson and Smith to both stay in. Both playing to keep their spot from Petty.

I’m a “reader” and not a “poster” as evidenced by my 144 posts in 13 years. I’ve also never taken a fellow Demonlander to task before. Yet, your post kept me awake last night. I only post this now because of the high regard I hold for the quality of your posts and your influence on other Demonlanders. As an additional preface, I want to make clear that I share your concerns with all the issues you have raised about the present state of the game. I have not followed the game for as long as you. However, in the 35 years I have followed the game, people have always complained about the umpiring, the rules, the tribunal and the administration. Furthermore, there have always been those who have claimed the game is at its lowest ebb. I suspect it has always been such and always will be. This discussion need not be restricted to football. People make similar comments about the state of society generally. So, I am naturally sceptical of such claims. What is missing from your post and similar lamentations is balance. For all the negatives you have identified – and with which I agree – there are positives. Most obviously is the phenomenal success of women’s football and the explosion in participation. This is great for the game, gender equality and public health more broadly. Football clubs and matches (AFL/VFL and local) were once places of open racism that was not only tolerated but encouraged. Racial slurs were seen as a legitimate way of putting an opponent off their game. Whatever you think of clubs taking a stance on the Voice, surely we can agree that there is less racism in football today and that is a good thing. What was once glorified as toughness has been better identified as thuggery and the game is cleaner. Does anyone really think we need more players running past the ball to shirt front an unsuspecting player? Toughness is better appreciated as playing the ball and never shirking a contest. Viney, along with Oliver and Petracca, are outstanding examples of tough and clean players. The players are bigger, stronger, faster and more skilful. The tactics and strategy are more complex. Fundamentally, when you strip away inconsistent umpiring and ambiguous rules, the game is still fascinating and spectacular. I look at my young boys. They love playing this athletic and skilful team game with an odd-shaped ball, just as I did at their age. They have no awareness of the concerns I have about the direction of the game. Though I’m sure they will when they are my age, when their own kids develop their love of the game and I bemoan how the game is not what is was in the 2020s when the MFC won a cabinet full of premiership trophies. My point is, just as the game and society change, so do we. Psychological research shows we have a tendency towards preferring to maintain the status quo as we age. We also have a cognitive bias towards negativity and we weight losses more than gains (i.e. the negative effect of losing $100 is greater than the positive effect of winning $100). Evolutionary psychology theory argues we have evolved thus because this confers a survival advantage (at the expense of our happiness and with the burden of anxiety). So, the negatives are easy to identify and we tend to overestimate their magnitude. We may need to look harder, but the positives are there as well. Across the course of my life, on balance, both football and society have changed for the better. Thanks for your great insights and humour over the years. I trust you will receive this post in the spirit with which it was intended.

What is going on is that a journalist is trying to stay on top of a news story despite an absence of intelligent information.

At the start of the year, I would not have thought Salem, Bowey and McVee play in the same team. Nor Pickett, Spargo, Neal-Bullen and Chandler. Yet here we are with all of them playing. Loving the way the club is prioritising fast and accurate ball movement and experimenting with personnel.

In the excellent Demonland podcast interview with Selwyn Griffith, Selwyn makes a point about the high performance team striving to have injured players return "AFL ready" (ie without the need to return via VFL). He goes on to describe some of the strategies used to achieve this. Seems they didn't get it right with Salem last year. That doesn't mean don't try again. Hopefully, they've learnt from the experience and prepared him better this time. Will make for very a interesting subplot to a great match.