binman

My take: General comment Under Goody, since the start of 2021 our method has been forward half (ie get it inside 50 as quickly and directly as possible and keep it there - hence the hated long bomb), territory first, brutal football with insane pressure and huge tackle numbers. Basically Hardwick's template with an improved defensive system and some other tweaks (eg one less at the stoppage). As @rpfc has noted, this year goody is trying to implement a game plan and system that has a focus on turnover and fast effective transition from the back half, ideally into an open forward line to help with 'efficiency'. Territory is still important of course. Switching just allows oppo defences to get set up. So if we can't go fast, we try and at least hit up leads that move us towards our goal. And we seem to be setting up really deep defensively - deeper than other team using a similar method ATM (Cats, Giants, Tigers and Swans - ironically one of the teams who really developed the method, the Pies, are playing our 2021-23 method, as is the blues). The point Turner kicked in the first q after a beautifully weighted kick from Fritter, who had pushed up to the wing (leaving our inside 50 all but empty) and marked after we turned the ball over was the perfect example of the method in action. Fritters and Turners first goals were other good examples. Key categories/indicators no longer as key/critical: Time in Forward Half Metres Gained Inside 50s The 2024 Red and Blue print: First and foremost, as has always been the case, and will always be a fundamental under goody: Defence Contest New in 2024 to reflect the changed method: Transition, back half football - scores from defensive half being the key indicator Scores from turnover (was important last year, but critical this year) Clearances (on watch in terms of relevance/importance)*: *Last season clearances were not key stats, or at least not in the way they once were. And because we have always given up a player at stoppages, even for us, a straight-line team, they were of limited value as key indicators. So i'm not sure how relevant clearances are. We are down on total clearances this season, but are number two for most scores (blues #1) from stoppages and number one for least oppo score when they win stoppages. So i'm starting to think it is pretty important, though again not as important as scores from turnover (which is aprox 60-70% of scoring now - or was last year). Here are some of the KPIs i think are relevant for our 2024 method (the list is obviously not exhaustive and the club would have a huge number of team and individual data points they measure to assess if we are the right track): Key Performance Indicators Defence Opposition score Intercepts Intercept marks Scores from turnover Marks inside 50 Contest Contested possessions Pressure Post clearance possessions Tackles Tackles inside 50 Ground Ball Gets Contested marks Clearances:* Centre Stoppage Scores from stoppages Hit outs Hitouts To Advantage Transition from back half Points from defensive half Inside 50 to score ratio Rebound 50s Score sources (from most to least relevant): Turnover Stoppage* Centre bounces* Kick in* Marks: Uncontested marks inside 50 Contested marks Marks inside forward 50 Marks inside forward 50 per inside 50 Intercept marks Marks on lead High performance program, fitness, and fatigue TBD

I went to the same school as a well known dees player. Year above me. Pillock who was the very definition of a self absorbed alfa jock who when he became a dees player contradicted de la soul.

Maybe I was unclear, but I meant to say exactly what you are saying - NRL coaches DO play players that have flagged they are leaving, even players who as you note have signed contracts with other clubs. The AFL is not there culturaly. Personally I like that it isn't, but i take your point about professional athletes being professional. To be clear, i have no idea why goody didn't pick Grundy come finals. I agree, I think we should have picked him too. I'm basing my opinion on how fundamental buy in to team and connection is to goody's coaching philosophy. But I'm looking from outside and obviously don't know what goody and the club's thinking was or what info they had. And I'd acknowledge it's unfair to suggest Grundy wasn't all in, or wouldn't have tried his guts out if picked. But I still maintain that if petty wasn't fully invested goody wouldn't pick him.

I see your point, but my comment about contenders not giving up 20 goals notwithstanding (which by the by was not meant to he taken literally- as in it never happens), I have the blues as a def contender. I think there are four contenders - dees, cats, giants and blues. I'm not sold on the swans. And port will never be a contender until they sort their defensive system. As someone noted, grand final winners are always in the top 6 for least scores against. In fact I think I'm right in saying the last team to win the flag and not be top 4 for least points is north way back in 1999. Port were 13th last season for least oppo scores. That ain't gonna cut it. If the blues are still 10th for points against come finals then they ate nor winning the flag. Based on their loss to the cats, the thing that would concern me about their defence if I was blues fan is the cats are playing a fast transition from the back half turnover game. That method exposes defences because they can struggle to get back and/or set up their structures. And the cats really hurt them on turnover as evidenced by their crazy good score to inside 50 ratio. Similarly the giants opened them up on transition. They may well sort that issue, particularly when they get McGovern, Marchbank and Saad back, but they will need to. By the by, we are basically trying to implement a very similar method to the cats. Both defences will be fully tested next Saturday night.

Yes, all good points. I'm in no way writing the blues off. To do so would be ridiculous. And if we lose to the cats I'll apply the same logic to us. I take your point about the blues missing two of their most important defenders - Saad and McGovern (Marchbank out hurts too) - but we have repeatedly shown that even with key outs our defensive sytem holds up. Take the lions game. We were smashed in most key metrics, including contest and pressure. Teams moving the ball easily from their back half and unpressured kicks into their 50 is a recipie for being opened up defensively. Yet we were able to keep one of the best offensive teams to 82 points, despite missing Bowser, salo out of tbe game 5 mins into the game and having to run woey and clarry at hb. To be honest, I'd be concerned if I was a cats fans too. They were also porous defensively. No way the cats put 120 points on us this week, even with no salo and Bowser out.

Maybe. Agree on his skill set. But if I was a dockers fan I'd be getting a touch worried about his professionalism, specifically his commitment to his conditioning. Doesn't look elite fit and strong to my eyes. Should be by now given he hasn't missed any big chunks out with injury and has had 4 AFL preseasons.

Usually. It's on tonight because of various scheduling issues. It's going to be funny doing it on a Sunday. Gives me WOS vibes.

Almost nailed it. Danger is an A grader = two b grader hammy. And I'm suspending my assessment of the blues. I mean they were soundly beaten by the cats, with late goals flattering them. A reality check Real contenders don’t give up 20 goals. If i accept the prevailing wisdom on DL that next week is some sort of critical litmus test on our premiership bona fides surely the blues just failed their test?

You can't argue with Clarkson's record, but it's been a long time since he's had success. And dees fans know messiahs don't usually work out so well.

If you have a sytem you only set yourself up for pain if you don’t stick to it.

Not me. Not even at the +30 points line. One of my Golden rules of footy betting is don't gamble on really rubbish teams. You can't trust em. And the roos are truly woeful. If I was forced to have a bet in that match I'd back the under the total match score of 179.5.

Yes, that gastro bout was a shocker. Very embarrassing at the TV week awards. Oh, hold on, misread your post.

I can't remember. Back in the day get woke, go broke was rhyming slang not a silly culture war slogan.

Yes.

Demonland logic: Pre cats game: We are an average side, going nowhere. Beaten no one and a team that would have beaten us by 100 points if they didn't put the cue in the rack just got smashed by the giants. Reality check time. Post cats game. We are an average side, going nowhere. Yes we we won by 4 goals, but the scoreboard flattered us. And we've still beaten no one. Sure the cats were unbeaten, but coming into the game their wins were against teams 9th, 12th, 13th, 15th, 16th and 18th on the ladder. And they also had two less days recovery. Reality check time next week against the blues, who will smash us. Their mids will destroy us, and yes we have a good defence but we can't expect them to rescue us every week. And fair warning, I don't want to hear the predicable excuses trotted out by the pollyannas about the impact of the five day break.

Cmon Billy, if you want to be a trolling hero you have to do much better than that. Or perhaps, Billy, don't be a hero.

A key factor in our ability to defend clearances is having one less at tbe stoppages. The fact we are number 2 for attacking from clearance and dominate in scores from stoppages (bar the lions game) playimg one down at stoppages shows how good our midfield and set ups are.

I agree with all of the above. Contest and pressure is absolutely the foundation of our game. It is fir all clubs. And for the dees the other fundamental is defence. And I'd agree that come finals our game will revert back to a large degree to a forward half, territory game. That's finals footy. But hopefully key elements of the new, transition from back half method will remain in place. And hopefully playing a less contested, coal face game during the home and away series will mean we are not as banged up come finals as we were in 2023 and 2022. I mean think back to those seasons. At the end of 2022 our first pre finals training session looked like an episode of MASH with all the bandages and limping. At the end of last season our forward line was missing so many players that we had to bring in an injured tmac. It is obvious, and clarry said as much, that they want to make the home and way season less physically taxing. And there is hardly a more taxing method than that used by the dees since the start of the 2021 season. It makes perfect sense to implement a less taxing methodin the home and away season and kudos to goody for doing so - particularly given the associated risks, winning fewer games being the obvious one. But in order to change something so fundamental we are going to have to wear some funky stats, some out of character performances and some losses too. Rome wasn't built in a day.

That surprises me TU. I had you pegged as a bit more realistic. But perhaps I've misunderstood your scaling parameter, and it isn't subjective to objective. By the by tmac is an excellent field kick. Which is why he I'd going at 81.8% by foot this year. By way of contrast salo is at 70.6% But salo takes on harder kicks I hear you say. Fair point, though there is still a 11.2% gap between the two.

Meant to include Bowser. Brain fade. Have to see macadam first.

I'm with you col. I have always liked the giants. Almost agree with your daughter too. Second best song.

I did no such thing. For petes sake, a third of the way through the season we are 5-2, 4th on the ladder with the 4th best percentage of any team, having played 3 of our 7 games interstate. 5-2. 4th on the ladder. 4th best percentage. With four of our best 22 to come back in (salo,Bowser, Hunter and melk). And it feels as if we are no good? Man oh man we see the game differently.

That assumes they get through their game against the blues on Saturday injury free. I'm predicting two hammy tweaks and a suspension.

Agree. Though I could see goody wanting to bring hunter in for his experience and grunt. Possibly at the expense of woey or Laurie (if the latter woey sub).

To be honest, it feels as if you are simply searching for proof we are no good. Clearance numbers mean squat. It's about the score from clearances differential. As I noted above we have smashing teams for scores from stoppages. I've no idea what yoy are talking about with our pressure. We had one quarter out of 28 with a pressure rating of 150 and that's evidence our pressure had been off? Apart from the lions game, when blund freddy could see we were gassed, it has been largely fantastic. Go check out the stats file thread. The pressure numbers are there for every game. And even less idea what you are talking about in terms of our last 3-4 weeks. Poor against the lions, but we still only got beaten by 22 points. Poor in the first half last night, we piled on 10 goals to 2 in the second half to win by 43 points (against the same team who rolled the swans a couple of weeks back). We beat the crows. At Adelaide oval off a five day break. And in one of the games of the season, and arguably one of our best games since our flag, we beat Port at Adelaide oval. But we all see what we want to see i guess. You're not a Smiths fan by any chance?