binman

Bill gates?

We took the red pill. And the blue one.

Agree. That said I think it helps that there is a lot to play for in this game. The loser plays port at home. And port is the only team who will be able to play at their home ground in front of their fans. This should help avoid the situation of player subconsciously holding back, which might be a risk if it was more of a dead rubber.

If they beat Eagles.

What a horrible match. Both teams are playing terribly. And each teams key vulnerabilities are being exsposed: The dogs reliance on lots of quick handballs to get it away from stoppages and chain it forward- pressure stuffs it up And the ports one dimensional and old fashion reliance on kicking it to a immobile full forward

You're right Nev, i agree he didn't play Hunts role. So lets leave that element My main point, which i appreciate you don't agree with, is I think Smith will play Hunt's role from here on in. Perhaps with some tweaks that takes advantage of Smith's skill set - for example picking up a roaming tall like Thilthorpe or Cameron, running off them when he gets a chance and getting across to impact marking contests with his speed and leap. The example i highlighted of the scoring shot Smith set up is evidence of his ability and willingness to run the lines and play the overlap running role Hunt plays. And in any case we will know soon enough what role they are asking Smith to play, so yes, lets move on.

Yep, that is true. Which is to be expected given he was playing May's role and was man on man on Himmelburg. After Himmelburg came off the vison suggests he picked up Thilthorpe. In that role he got up well the ground, albeit tracking Thilthorpe and the (extended) vison shows him spoiling three times in the first quarter up on our half forward flank. Involvements that do not not get shown on a heat map. Definitely no run and carry in the first half? I must be seeing things: Thirty seconds into the second quarter Smith comes out and spoils an inside 50 kick aprox 40 metres out from the Crows goal. It spills to Nibbler, who kicks short to Tracc in the centre square. Smith is running hard forward tracking the ball, which tracc immediately handballs to Spargo, who in turn handballs to Smith. Smith, who started the chain inside the crows 50 metre, had run hard enough to get in front of the ball when he receives it on our half forward flank, despite the ball having been in constant motion. Smith handballs back to Spargo, who kicks it inside 50 to Fritter who then kicks to a Oliver to set up a shot at goal. Of course Oliver misses it. Eddie on the mike: 'there he goes again, Smith has run from run from full back to half forward as the link man'

https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/Watch/CD_I1003546/CD_M20210142207

With no possessions, not much carry that's for sure. But he might still have been providing the run Hunt provides. Just like Gus still played as a winger running up and down the wing in the first half despite getting only two possessions. I'm guessing his first half heat map suggested he stayed in one spot for the first half. I feel the need for some AFL Stats pro vison! Maybe Smith had some second half up the ground involvements that might bolster my case!

I'm not. At least not now. As i noted in the post you quoted, the heat map you put up convinced me he played may's role, which is why i said smith's map 'does show he played deep and in mays role. At least in the first half' There is so no data on the heat map where Smith ran in the second half as he didn't get a possession

Managed?

Fair points about the heat maps. And smith's does show he played deep and in mays role. At least in the first half. However heat maps can be deceptive. For one thing, they only show where a player got their possessions, not where they run to. GPS numbers would give a better idea of how much running a players does. Smith only had 9 possessions in the crows game, almost all in the first half and many of them when he was manning Himmelburg. Once Himmelburg went off Smith was released and played higher up the ground, albeit got few possessions (so not evident on the heat map) In the gc game hunt had 19 possessions. So his heat map demonstrates how he gets up the ground. I'm not sure why you say Smith has not played the hunt role in the vfl. If you have kayo, have a look at the last vfl game. Against Werribee Smith had 19 possessions. And if there was a heat map available it would look very much the same as the hunts one in the gc game. But we will soon see. Dazzler has made the suggestion he might play on Cameron, which makes sense. He has the pace to go with him and Cameron gets up the ground a lot. So Smith can mark Cameron AND provide overlap run and carry and push up the ground. And have the pace to get back into defence.

Leaving aside the starting point I agree daisy. I was just saying to a mate yesterday that state v state angst had been awful.

Well let's agree to disagree nev. In the four vfl games I have watched Smith play this year his role has mirrored the role Hunt plays. He had 19 disposals against Werribee running put of defence. I suggested he might replace Hunt last week. Technically he came in for may but in reality it was Hunt as that was the role he played. May is back in this week and Smith stays. It is very unlikely goody makes a structural change to tbe backline at this stage ie four talls. Much more likely he would keep the structure that has been tbe foundation of tbe leagues best defence by a country mile. Hunt played a very specific role. And a very important one in our system. I think many don't appreciate how important. Logic suggests that role needs to be replaced. And the players you mention all have their own set roles to play. As I suggested before the crows game Smith in to play hunts role makes sense. And that is the role I am positive he will play. And if he does a good job in that role he will stay in the team through the finals. And I'm not sure what you mean about his kicking. He is a more reliable ick than Hunt.

Jordon rested for sure. And likely replaces Sparrow. Hibberd likely not rested, given the stakes. Might have played his last game this season

Nup. Smith playing hunts role. Smith will provide help in some aerial contests, and will find himself isolated against a tall at some points though the game (just as Hunt does), but as we saw last year he is no good defensively one on one. Half back flanker, run and carry and overlap run will be his go.

But that's my point. That is not what the doherty reports says. It days at 70% Vax rate lockdowns will not be needed as a suppression strategy. But only if cases are low. From memory the threshold was 20-30 cases a day. If cases are in the hundreds a day lockdowns will still be required under the 4 stage plan based in the domestic report. That's why I day she is being disingenuous

Another comms screw up. And all because he wants a popularity sugar hit. How many people under 40 are now going to cancel their AZ shot they have an appointment for? Which slow the Vax rate down. And of course they won't be able to get a Pfizer appointment for ages, certainly not 1 September. But will wait. And in doing so slow the Vax rate down Why not wait until August 31 and mitigate the first issue?

To be clear I meant the comment from Gladys was disingenuous, not rjay's

Love it. Some first impressions feedback: On the smartphone app the MFC news comes first. Personally i would put all the aggregated 'other' news (eg age/HUN articles about the dees) first and MFC stuff last Why? becuase i would go the MFC website for all that stuff (and their videos, podcast etc etc) ie it is already aggregated (and can pop it on autoplay) - which i can't do obviously for news from multiple media outlets In fact i would consider not having any official MFC stuff on there as there is heaps and it is distracts from all the other stuff (and from a club perspective they may prefer not to lose traffic to their site?) the videos i would like aggregated in one spot is the YouTube channels that have bespoke edits of games, shows, clips etc etc. Lace out is an excellent example I might of missed it, but if not, i would absolutely put up a link to the Dees bible - Demonwiki

That is such an incredibly disingenuous comment. Not to mention dangerous As Dan Andrews said today the modelling by the Doherty Institute is predicted on low daily community transmission case numbers, not numbers in the hundreds.

Spot on. With one exception. Tomorrow is day one a 14 day lock down as the current one was scheduled to finish tonight at 11:59pm. I'm actually quietly confident that if we have some luck we'll get it down close to zero. The engagement party does not seem to have been so called super spreader event (it was 8 days ago, attendees started to get test on Sunday, when the first positive test came and in and and surely all have been tested by now) and at this stage, as you say, they have very good handle on chains of transmission. Of course all depends on no further mystery case breaches from NSW, people doing the right thing and a healthy dose of luck.

That is a function of the betting pool and how much has already been bet on the Cats Around the time of the bye rounds kicking off the Dogs, dees and cats were essentially all equal favorites for the flag. In the 3-4 weeks post that period we were perceived to be struggling and the dogs had come off the boil. However the Cats were unbeaten in that same period and the money came for them, and punters were not keen on the dogs and the dees. The weight of money meant the cats became favorites at around $4 (where they remain). Three weeks ago, prior to the Suns game, we were $5.50 and i think the dogs $4.50. I know that because I took the $5.50 ten minutes before the Suns game started on the logic that it represented great value as i was confident we would win our next two games and tighten considerably. Regardless of the result on Friday night the Cats are likely to drift, as punters will back the winner and increase the pool and decrease the cats percentage of that pool (essentially maintaining the bookies profit margin). If Port are impressive they will come in and the same goes for the dogs If we win this week punters will back us and the Cats will likely drift again. Particularly if they end up having to play Port at Adelaide oval as even more money will bt on Port in that scenario. I think we will win and the dogs will win. If that occurs i suspect we will be slight favorites for the flag at $4 and the dogs second favorite at $4.20. The dogs will be aprox $5.50 and Port remain at $6.50. If you are punter, the $4.50 you can get on the dees atm still represents great value. We are the best team in the AFL and we are in the best shape injury wise of any team too. If i was framing a fresh market (ie no money in the pool yet) i would have dees $3.50 favourites.

Yep, that's the likely changes. Not sure melksham could be considered unlucky if he comes out though.

Its actually narrower i think. Which is weird. Cricket is the only other team sport that comes to mind that does not have uniform size playing field.