Demon17

10 minutes ago, Mazer Rackham said:

For those suffering nerves, relax. This game is already won. Geelong cannot beat us.

I rarely feel absolutely confident of a win. Only twice this season, in rounds 16 & 18.

Today I am absolutely confident of a win.

The only way we can lose is if we refuse to kick straight, or become static and fumbly, are second to the ball, get shafted by the umps, get key injuries, or just simply have bad luck.

Only one of the above worries me. Wev'e got the rest covered.

Oliver?  Fumbly??

Unlikely in the extreme.

Interesting to see the matching lineups in the papers this morning and probably hypotheticals 

Henry on Fritsch. Fritsch can match him easily in the air but is that what we want?

I don't like Dermot, but respect his forthright opinions. He has Dees winning by 24.

42 minutes ago, Darkhorse72 said:

But he won one.    But the psychological games are interesting.  Plus we were near the end of our physical effort by the PF in 2018, WC were fresh off the break and on a tough home deck. 

Brendan McCartney noted to a friend of mine , his next door neighbour, that the team was exhausted after the Hawks game.

Just another example of the QF winner winning their next match in the PF. The odds are huge against lower 8 teams winning a prelim.

Comparing the Dees position in 2018 to that of tomorrow is chalk and cheese.

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

Don't know if this has been posted on here yet: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/melbourne-demons/afl-finals-2021-melbourne-vs-geelong-preliminary-final-mental-scars-2018-prelim-vs-west-coast-will-schofield-comments-news/news-story/22b7e75c5968ee20a3d0079db4ccd8d8

Will Schofield is a [censored] but the insight into how West Coast treated us with absolute disdain in 2018 is interesting.

The story is an intetesting piece of self promotion. Look how clever we were.

The heart of the story is really about schofields propensity for his own mental scarring and fears on gf day.

In that gf in 18 josh Kennedy dragged them over the line. 

Schofields gf record:?

In 2015 gf. 5 kicks in 92% tog

In 2018 gf 7 kicks in 100% tog

Huge contibutory gf record - not.

Good read though.

50 minutes ago, Pollyanna said:

Fort on the Geelong emergency list is interesting, I wonder if there's a question over Stanley, Blicavs or Ratugolea?

News tonight said henderson has a hamstring issue

What a huge tick for young Bowey.

I'm wrapped for him.  Hug tick also for Choco in bringing him on.

His beautiful disposal will be rocketing out of half back, centimetre perfect to Fritsch.

12 minutes ago, CYB said:

The Goody presser was good today. I liked Goodwin's veiled insults back at Geelong saying that experience doesnt matter and ultimately experience in loosing (i.e. cats PF record) can actually be detrimental...

What a fantastic, and likely deliberate, phraseolgy in that presser.

"....not having some of the scars associated with Prelim finals..."  Dees being scar-free by association c.f.Cats

Assume he's referring in a veiled manner to the 5 recent losses to the cats.

50 minutes ago, DubDee said:

So their record in the last 10 years is 7-14 in finals with zero flags.  ouch

9 finals campaigns and only one GF.    they have had sustained success to a degree but they have not yet proven they can beat the draft/equalisation model.  and I hope they never do

Beaten in 5 of their last 6 prelims.

3 hours ago, Jaded said:

One of my new favorite lockdown activities is trying to spot Demon flags and other items on my daily 5km radius walk. I seem to live near quite a few Melbourne supporters. Our front yard has had the Melbourne flag up since post round 23!

My scarf has been in the front garden for 2 weeks since the QF.

Stolen in broad daylight this morning.

I live in Geelong.

[censored].

1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Silly of Scott to get so wound up about someone's opinion - just ignore it or take a 'straight bat' approach. 

The pressure is getting to him.  

The above comment might have been meant as a throw away line  but...

The pressure is huge on Scott and to a lesser degree some biggish names  - Gary Rohan I'm looking at you.

A geelong loss is not worth thinking about for them, the ramifications and headlines will be screaming about cats, Thompson handed him a Flag team etc., wasted year again.....

Its all true of course. 

He inherited a great team that has been underachieivng all decade, if flags are the objective as they say.

But hats off if they do win - it will be against all the odds .

1 hour ago, Mr Steve said:

This story has been everywhere today but has it been confirmed by the club.

What story and who confirmed ???????????????

45 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

hibberd    186

hunt         187

rohan       188

I betting Hunt has arms that are 10mm longer than Rohans

16 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Watching the replay T Mac did very little and he must be under consideration. Logically the replacement is Melksham or for those who are contrarian thinkers perhaps Weid or Mitch Brown (if fit).

Cannot forget that Goodwin dropped Fritsch for our last PF after a win.

I felt so sorry for Fritsch but when you look at the replay of the Hawks final his game was mistake -ridden and they chose to go with Smith for soem reason - maybe that???

Not anymore - Fritsch is a gun now as a 3rd tall.

16 minutes ago, BigFez said:

Didn't May win the coffee machine that night for his performance on Buddy

Correct. The plaudits went to Steven May.  

25 minutes ago, Young Blood said:

Thank god we have great backline depth ey. If it were one of the three true tall backs I would be worried.

Will be interesting you would think Hibberd comes in. He is slightly undersized but uses his big body so well. He will take Danger when he goes forward. He's been well rested and hopefully comes out with that ferociousness we've seen him have in big games. Much less of a liability with ball in hand then Smith.

The Ratugolea factor is really interesting. Statistically he's done practically nothing (6 marks in his last four games...) but obviously gives them a different look structurally. It gives them more big bodies to throw at forward half contests reducing the likelihood of our biggest weapon being our intercept marks and ability to score of turnovers. 

We're just going to have to be that bit better at the contest in the air and ground especially in the back half. I said it last game that guys like Rivers, Harmes, Salem and Sparrow would have to really step up. They will have to do the same once again to ensure those ground balls don't result in goals.

 

 

I have no converns about these players. Proven finalists from 2 weeks ago. Including Bowey if he gets a game.

59 minutes ago, RodGrinter14 said:

Assuming Hunt is good to go, I think he is the best match-up for Rohan. I don't like like the idea of bringing in Hibberd to play on Cameron in order to free up Lever. Cameron is too good and we must play Petty on him. I'll back Lever in to play and zone off Ratugolea - will be too smart for him. 

Agree on all of the above and will be amazed if not implemented.

Hunt is the same height as Rohan, got him covered for speed and footy IQ

Hunt will run off him if not careful and feed the forwards . Rohan can't leave him alone.

Hunt is also a good contested mark.  Hibbered will really make me nervous.

3 minutes ago, Mickey said:

My only concern is it means Hibbo has to play on Rohan, and petty on Cameron. Smith was a good match up for Cameron, and Rohan is good in the air.

I agree.  Smiths size and speed was defintiely good for Rohan , and Smith is arguably a better player anyway than Rohan. Hibberd probably has better defensive nous but is he fit enough. 

Could have been worse news.

1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Maybe not Crows supporters.  They would savour Port being beaten in a GF - with as big a margin as possible.

My mistake.  You're absolutely correct Lucifer.

All non-port Power fans, i.e the rest of Adelaide will want to see maximum pain. That only happens if they meet the Dees in the GF.

This weekend will lull Port into a false sense of security.

52 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Except for close wins vs Freo and the Dogs (Port kicked themselves out of an easy win), Port have been cruising for months. 

So if they cruise over the dogs this week plus the easy QF win and 2 byes isn't ideal GF preparation.. They could go into the GF undertone in terms of high pressure football and scoreboard pressure..

If we have a solid hit out and beat the Cats (but it not go down to the wire so I don't become a nervous wreck) we go into the GF a bit more match hardened.  We were challenged more than Port at the end of the season.  Being a bit more match hardened may not be a big thing but every little bit counts in a GF.

So their cruising may hinder them in a GF vs us (if that happens).  

Port would be desperately praying for a Geelong win.

Up to now I hadn't considered this weekend from a Port perspective.

Never a truer word spoken. All of Adelaide will be on the Cats this Friday.

As I think David King said sagely for once this year - you're going to have to get past Melbourne to win the flag in 2021.

9 hours ago, WA Demon Boy said:

There will be a massive Demon crowd here. Trust me. 

There won't be much noise for the Cats. 

At a neutral business meeting I attended yesterday, someone summed up the mood of the room by saying at the end of football chat

"...ABG..."  

It stood for Anyone But Geelong.

My motto now till midnight Friday.

13 hours ago, Jaded said:

Port Adelaide just cruising into the grand final the easiest possible way. A tired Geelong. A week off. Dogs after a bruising contest minus Weightman and a half broken Bont. Two home games. Jesus you would be insane not to back them to go all the way. 

If we can make it past Friday, then with the weeks bye, the tiredness factor goes away and teams will be equal. 

We have 2 games up our sleeve at Optus. They have none (might be a 1 percenter)

It will get down to talent and prelim injuries.

I just want to see the AA bench again for the last 10 minutes of the game this week.

10 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Yep. Prior to the pre-finals bye, the QF winners are 28-4 in prelims.

The four losers are:

1. Fremantle in 2015 - beaten by the threepeat Hawks
2. Adelaide in 2006 - beaten by West Coast, who had lost their QF by a point to Sydney during the peak Sydney-West Coast rivalry era
3. St Kilda in 2005 - beaten by Sydney, who had lost their QF to West Coast by four points during the peak Sydney-West Coast rivalry era
4. Sydney in 2003 - beaten by the threepeat Brisbane

A bit of a trend there. The only four sides from 2000-2015 to lose the QF but make the Grand Final were either three-peat sides or lost their QF by a tiny margin as part of an amazing rivalry. 2021 Geelong does not fall into either of those buckets.

(Note that all four of these sides went on to win the flag, though...)

Great research that fills me with confidence. Something has to.

But your point that the cats are not close to the quality of the outliers is valid. If anything, the Dees quality and talent is more a match to those earlier chamion teams.

15 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Yes but under Chris Scott, since the 2011 flag they're 1-4 in prelims.

Or 5 out of the last 6 as losses.

I noted in another post that as a sample of Prelim performances, in the immediate last 6 years prior to introduction of the pre-finalsbye, as in this years structure, 11 of those 12 PF's were won by the QF winning teams.

i.e. this year Dees and Port.

The mighty Threepeat hawks the only team to buck this trend

1 minute ago, Demon17 said:

I have been searching for a sign in the histroy books on Prelim finals stats and a possible trend.

Contrary to what Gerard Whately said on SEN this morning about the past few years when the pre-finals bye was introduced in 2016, the results from Qualifying Finalks then the perfomance of those winners in the subsequent Prelim show no material trend.

But, given no Pre finals bye this year, rendering recent history meaningless, I thought it prudent to look at the 6 years prior to the bye.  2010 to 2015. Yes I know there are many variables . Someone else can model those.

But, in the 12 qualifying finals in this period the results are in the Dees and Port's favour -big time.

11 times the QF winner won their PF 2 weeks later . (only one QF loser made it to the GF in those 6 years - the mighty hawks in 2015 (going on to win the GF)

Of those 11 winners, 7 were blow out wins, and 4 were close  (less than 2 goals - but wins nevertheless.)

 

Another way to look at it, only once in 6 years (or 12 PF's) did a QF loser get back to the PF via a semi and win. Clarksons Threepeat team.

We ain't facing that standard team this week. Nor the master coach.

And for fun I just looked at the previous 2 years, 2009, 2008.

Same result.

All big PF wins for the earlier QF winners 

So that makes 8 years and 14 out of 15.

I rest my case.

I have been searching for a sign in the histroy books on Prelim finals stats and a possible trend.

Contrary to what Gerard Whately said on SEN this morning about the past few years when the pre-finals bye was introduced in 2016, the results from Qualifying Finalks then the perfomance of those winners in the subsequent Prelim show no material trend.

But, given no Pre finals bye this year, rendering recent history meaningless, I thought it prudent to look at the 6 years prior to the bye.  2010 to 2015. Yes I know there are many variables . Someone else can model those.

But, in the 12 qualifying finals in this period the results are in the Dees and Port's favour -big time.

11 times the QF winner won their PF 2 weeks later . (only one QF loser made it to the GF in those 6 years - the mighty hawks in 2015 (going on to win the GF)

Of those 11 winners, 7 were blow out wins, and 4 were close  (less than 2 goals - but wins nevertheless.)

Another way to look at it, only once in 6 years (or 12 PF's) did a QF loser get back to the PF via a semi and win. Clarksons Threepeat team.

We ain't facing that standard team this week. Nor the master coach.