Rogue

At his best, Garland played some great games on some great players. Col beat some of the best, regardless of whether they were tall or small. Sometimes he appeared lackadaisical, but I liked Garland and for quite a few seasons he was well and truly in my best side. I was saddened when he was injured at the start of the year, because I thought it was already quite possible he'd never play AFL again. What we're doing with our rucks has almost nothing to do with Col. He was so far down the list of potential defenders it's not funny, and once you take into account the bias towards younger players vs a guy beyond his prime, Col was extremely unlikely to get a game unless we had a disastrous injury run. Col had an AFL career many people could be envious of, despite the struggles personally and at the Club, and it's nice he's transitioning into coaching with us at the Dees.

Getting Lever was a great get - those bemoaning that we 'sold the farm' don't realise the risk inherent in these first round picks, which is ironic because we've had plenty of early draft picks in recent times. We didn't want Watts and we got to offload him two years before his contract expired. That's also a win, and I hope it works out for Jack at Port.

Yes, 'we' as in the Melbourne Football Club. Good on you for writing a sternly worded letter to the Club about trading out Watts, though. Out of interest, were you also someone who wrote to the Club when Travis Johnstone and Sylvia left?

This was about the now! Watts was contracted for another two years, but we wanted him off the list.

Watts was contracted for another two years, so getting him to another Club was a win - we didn't want him anymore. Pick 31? Pick 21? Pick 41? Pretty irrelevant, I reckon. As an aside, classy comments from Watts as he heads to Port, but also pretty irrelevant to this debate - no one was kicking him out because he was a [censored] bloke. PS. I know footy players don't need to be smart, but I worry if it's true that Weid can't see why we're shipping Watts out...

I really don't understand how you've come to the conclusion this sample shoots myself in the foot. We must be looking at a different sample, have a different understanding of probability/averages or have wildly differing opinions on what a gun is! [It's also worth noting that an assessment of the picks doesn't factor in the later draft picks that Adelaide gave to us - we also get Pick 35 and swap a fourth round pick for a third round pick - and has a conservative estimate of our 2018 ladder position]. Let's say we ignore the 2016 draftees, as per your suggestion - that leaves us with 18 players. Daniher was touted as a top two pick and only went to Pick 10 because of the father-son rule; since he's not representative of what you get at that pick. Since we don't have a top-two father-son prospect in the next two years let's look at Vlastuin, who went at Pick 9, instead. Of the 18, I'm calling seven a clear bust - six are now out of the system; Johnston, Lucas, Cook, Jaksch, Gorringe and Sumner. The seventh is Freeman, whose trade netted his original club a paltry upgrade from Pick 68 to Pick 63. (Two seasons later and he still hasn't debuted). [This is almost half of the sample!] Melksham and Docherty were both traded for second round picks - Picks 25 and 33 respectively - before they hit their peak age. Adelaide received Pick 20 in compensation for Davis bailing (who, fwiw, has been a good but not great player at GWS). [We've now covered more than half of the sample! Ie. This is what you'll get 'on average'.] Another three played a combined total of 10 AFL games this season. Lennon (two games) and Ellis (six games) couldn't get out of Richmond's VFL side, while McKay played two games - but he was only drafted in 2015 (I would have excluded the class of '15 as well because I reckon they're too young to make a call on). [NB: So far we've already covered 13 players - 72% of the group - and it's either out of the system, gone for Pick 20+ or not best 22, with apologies to McKay] Vlastuin looks like he'll be a good AFL player, but I'm not convinced he's going to be a gun (are you?). Cockatoo is exciting but hasn't been able to play more than half the season in the seniors since his debut year, when the Cats were able to use him as the sub. He's also been significantly injured during matches at least six times, which is about 20% of his games! Curnow played most games this year but I haven't seen enough to confidently rate him - is he one you're saying is going to be a gun? However, there are two clear standouts; Dangerfield was a gun at Adelaide and left them with Picks 9 and 28 (plus a swap of Pick 50 for Gore, who was taken 55). Rioli has been a star for the Hawks, who drafted him, so that's also a great get. PS. If I had time I would look at a bunch of other guys picked before and after Picks 10/12, but I simply don't. I think this group is representative enough, though, but I'd encourage you to if you think the sample is still too small

21 combinations out of how many? (Based on what you've said, we should be happy with the Lever deal, right?).

I'd happily spend all day on this, but I don't have the time. Will you do the leg work for me? A bigger sample would prove my point nicely! In the meantime, here's this - a list of the pick 10 and 12 selections over the same time period. Of course, it's 'skewed' and there are 'outliers'. Pick 12 from 2007: Year Drafting club Name Games (games at later clubs) Goals Brownlow votes 2007 Hawthorn Cyril Rioli 185 273 44 //All-Australian x5 2008 Sydney Lewis Johnston 10 (2) 16 2 - career over after four seasons at two clubs 2009 Carlton Kane Lucas 42 15 1 - career over after seven seasons at two clubs 2010 Melbourne Lucas Cook 0 0 0 - career over after two seasons 2011 Brisbane Sam Docherty 92 (13) 14 6 //All-Australian x1 2012 GWS Kristian Jaksch 14 (7) 3 0 - moved on from second club 2013 Richmond Ben Lennon 21 10 0 - two games in 2017 (not in premiership team) 2014 Richmond Corey Ellis 23 7 1 - six games in 2017 (not in premiership team) 2015 Carlton Charlie Curnow 27 25 0 - 21 games in 2017 2016 North Melbourne Jy Simpkin 13 9 0 - 13 games in 2017 Pick 10 from 2007: Year Drafting club Name Games (games at later clubs) Goals Brownlow votes 2007 Adelaide Patrick Dangerfield 202 (154) 232 165 //All-Australian x5 2008 Adelaide Phil Davis 121 (18) 6 1 2009 Essendon Jake Melksham 133 (114) 78 3 - traded for pick 25 2010 Gold Coast Daniel Gorringe 26 (22) 11 0 - career over after seven seasons at two clubs 2011 GWS Liam Sumner 32 (12) 19 0 - career over after six seasons at two clubs 2012 Essendon Joe Daniher 93 173 19 - father-son pick - Nick Vlastuin was at pick 10; Troy Menzel at pick 11 //All-Australian x1 2013 Collingwood Nathan Freeman 0 0 0 - yet to make debut 2014 Geelong Nakia Cockatoo 32 25 0 - 11 games in 2017 2015 Carlton Harry McKay 2 3 0 - 2 games in 2017 2016 Gold Coast Jack Bowes 11 2 0 - 11 games in 2017 How many pairs of a pick 10 and 12 would you take instead of Lever? It looks like half of them won't even be AFL players when they should be hitting their physical peak. The more I look into it, the more confident I am about my statement that draft picks are overrated.

Since when were picks 10 and 13ish guaranteed good players? Perhaps you missed my post listing our top 20 picks since 2007.

I could understand if Bate was bitter about that - he was playing here and going nowhere but we wouldn't release him to a Club that were keen, and then a year later we cut him and he's on the scrap heap. Brutal industry.

Well and truly on the fringes, and if nothing changes he's gone when his contract expires.

Draft picks are overrated. To put this trade in perspective, here are our top 20 picks since 2007: Scully - pick 1 Watts - pick 1 Petracca - pick 2 Hogan - pick 2 Trengove - pick 2 Brayshaw - pick 3 Oliver - pick 4 Toumpas - pick 4 Morton - pick 4 Weideman - pick 9 Salem - pick 9 Gysberts - pick 11 Cook - pick 12 Grimes - pick 14 Blease - pick 17 Tapscott - pick 18 Strauss - pick 19 Would people be crying that we'd 'paid overs' and were 'amateurs' if we'd packaged up Weid and Grimes*, or Salem and Cook*, to get Lever, pick 35 and upgrade pick 64 to pick 50? *Oh wait, we couldn't offer those trades because these blokes are already out of the system. PS. Honourable mention to Marric at pick 21.

Two first rounds picks for Watts? Hahah. You've gotta be kidding me. Demonland's services would crash if we picked up a Watts-esque player - a talented 26 year old who's been unable to nail down a consistent senior gig - for two first rounds picks! For some comparison, we only gave away 29 for Hibberd (and we upgraded 68 to 59).

Pick 36 for Brayshaw? Tell him he's dreamin'.

Thanks for the link. Sloane pushes Vince away from him well before either ruckman are competing for the footy, and didn't push Vince into the umpire. If Vince had turned right, or kept moving in the same direction, he'd have been fine; instead, Vince pivots, blind, smacks into the back of the ump. Unfortunate way to lose a K, but hardly an injustice.

Haven't seen the Guthrie incident, but MRP inconsistency is hardly surprising. The umpires can and will move backwards in that way all day, every day. I didn't notice that in the live vision (my memory is that the collision is quite a while after he and Sloane are side by side), but maybe you're right - if so, stiff. Anyone have a link to the replay?

My understanding is that the area directly behind the ump is the 'protected area' you should stay out of. The umpire moved directly backwards into this area. Vince was in there, and he wasn't pushed in by anyone else, so I can't see how it's surprising he is receiving a fine.

Pretty sure he's on record as saying he thinks he's better as a mid, but not able to get a game in there. I remember Jetta making comments in the early days re: the fact he wasn't suited to being a crumbing forward, but we played him there anyway.

We could lose all of those games and still be on 11 wins, so I think we could win just one of those and have a reasonable chance of finals. 12 wins was sufficient in three of the past four years (2016*; 2014**; 2013) *In 2016, St Kilda were pipped by on percentage by North because the Saints had a very ordinary percentage of 95.8% (that was actually less than the percentage of teams nine and ten - Port and us). **Essendon were excluded from finals in 2014, but 12 wins was enough anyway.

Without really playing any better at all we could very easily be five or six wins and sitting in the top two or four on the ladder. I'm okay with people who think the sky is falling regardless of this fact. What I have a problem with is that I know a bunch of the 'the sky is falling' crowd would have a different opinion if we were 5-2 or 6-1 on the ladder, even if we'd played very similar footy.

In the first half we butchered the footy going forward and if we'd been a bit cleaner we would have won. Frost does these horrible things but I like that he was taking the game on in the second half instead of going into his shell. Hunt to the forward line in the third was a great move. JKH has been horrible and I'm about ready to mark his cards. It's really disappointing Kent and Brayshaw aren't fit/in form. Extremely frustrating, and resulted in two Hawthorn goals. What was the margin again? Yeah, I'm not a fan and will be surprised if he's ever best 22. I thought it had really improved compared to earlier in his career, but this season hasn't been his finest. Still gives the ball off well by hand.

Anyone interested in the upcoming Champions Trophy? AUSTRALIA SQUAD: David Warner, Aaron Finch, Steve Smith (c), Travis Head, Chris Lynn, Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis, Moises Henriques, Matthew Wade, John Hastings, Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, James Pattinson, Mitchell Starc, Adam Zampa. A potentially lethal pace battery, but I don't know that they'll all play together in the Champions Trophy. Faulkner, Bailey and Khawaja are notable outs. I was surprised to see Hastings back and Henriques make the cut. Full squads here (India TBA Monday): http://www.cricket.com.au/news/champions-trophy-full-squads-2017-fixtures-australia-england-india-pakistan/2017-04-26 I'm a bit late to the party, but I agree with this.

JKH out, probably never to return. I didn't think giving him a third game was necessarily poor, but he has been very poor. I don't think he sees himself as a forward, but he's a long way down the list of our midfielders IMO. It'd be nice to bring in Kent and Brayshaw, but they're not fit/in form.

1) Yes. Losing Gawn and Spencer during games was particularly brutal. 2) If we can win 4-5 of our next eight then I think we're a chance, assuming 12 wins is required. That would mean defeating at least four of Carlton, Collingwood, Gold Coast, North and Sydney. After the Tigers loss, and Spencer's long-term injury, I said our season was scuppered. However, 4-5 wins in the next eight would keep us in touch. Four or five wins in the next eight would leave us needing 4-5 wins in the final six. GWS in ACT should be tough, but our other away game is North in TAS and at home we have Port, St Kilda, Collingwood and Brisbane. 3) Yes. Unsure whether VB is best 22, but Smith might be and I like Brayshaw.

AFL 98 definitely the best AFL game so far. PS. Released 20 years ago? Jesus.