DeeSpencer

In: Hore, Melksham, May (Keilty), JKH Out: J Wagner, Lewis, Oscar, C Wagner FB: Hore May Jetta HB: Jones Frost Lever C: Harmes Oliver Baker HF: ANB Petty Petracca FF: Melksham T. Smith Fritsch Foll: Gawn Salem Viney Int: Brayshaw Hibberd JKH Hunt May and Melksham if right, but no risks taken. Otherwise it's a matter of anyone but the Wagner's.

Only saw brief patches but Hore looked good, Melksham a class above, liked a couple of things from Jordon. And I missed what might've been a rough start but Keilty looked good on what I saw down back, he has to be a better option than Oscar? Couldn't fault JKH's work rate from what I saw. Real shame that the Weid went down. Casey have a final round bye, 2 winnable games and then a huge task of beating top of the table Richmond to make finals. Not out of it but unlikely.

Goodwin has a lot of work to do but.... Roos came in, stacked the side with veteran midfielders and won 4 games and 7 games and steadied the ship with an awful game plan of flooding back and hoping to keep games tight. He got some fundamentals right - defensive work rate was good, attack on the contest was good, defensive spoiling skills were solid. Goodwin then took over and introduced an aggressive zone defence, upped the forward pressure from 0 to actually competent and created an angle changing aggressive ball movement system that challenged a lot of teams as he won 10, 12 and then 15 games. A lot of things have gone wrong this year: 1. Injuries, injuries and more injuries 2. List management failures with lack of quality outside running depth 3. Skill breakdowns - the fundamental handball yet alone kicking skills aren't there 4. Structure around the ball falling away Goodwin has a responsibility in a lot of it but the idea he's suddenly a poor coach after 1 year when he really built this team from little more than Roos' scrappy Vince/Jones/Cross resistance to a prelim final side doesn't make sense to me.

Frost is one of the least fit players in the team, he's a burst athlete who's best footy is down back, the idea he could do anything effective on a wing is crazy. Fritsch is a genuine utility. He's crafty as a forward but it takes good ball movement to find him one on ones or space to lead and his defensive work as a forward is really poor. Normally the best way to get him in space where he can win the ball in the air or link up at ground level will be wing/half back, with some rotations forward. One excellent game against the Eagles and a couple of nice goals against the Saints doesn't change that.

I think Misson did a pretty good job at the things he was meant to be good at - getting players fit and preventing avoidable injuries (especially soft tissues). Even right now Weideman has a sore calf and Joel Smith has his groin, they are the only soft tissue injuries on the list. But Misson was also the head of the whole performance program and the management of long term injuries has been awful. My biggest concern is we had the reigns to Burgess who is another sports science guy and as far as I can tell isn't a physiotherapist and clearly isn't a medical doctor. Will he sort through the injury management issues and maybe even change the culture of the coaches and players in how to far smarter with injury prevention and management? We need to get back to a healthy list to start the year, that much is obvious, but when round 1 comes along next year I hope we have selection, game plan etc all on the right page and there's no more panicked selections of underdone players and hopefully we even play smarter, safer and more controlled footy.

There's some pretty interesting videos from his time at Port. I'm hoping to see some of the stuff he's done with soccer players working on speed and agility worked in to our players. The Hawks at their best and a team like the Tigers now move like a soccer team, keeping in position with strong endurance running then quickly in to explosive actions to tackle or break a line.

Very exciting news. Apart from what seems almost certain improvement in fitness and health of our players I'm hoping it leads to a medium/long term improvement in recruiting and development. I still think we'll need to build up our medical staff around a high performance manager and of course facilities. We all want fit players on the park. And I want to see players, coaches, recruiters etc all the way down challenged to draft/develop/become the best athletes they can be. Burgess' background with world class athletes in soccer hopefully means we can see some speed, acceleration, powerful running in our players that translates to good footy.

I have a number of concerns: 1. Space, there just isn't all that much. Connecting up to the carpark seems important rather than using the space south of the oval because you're going to need access in and out. 2. Oval size. They have to get an MCG sized oval. To do that you're shrinking down the land available for soccer/rugby to 1 rectangular field. I'm not surprised if this did come in conjunction with Victory no longer training there. They might have to change the orientation of the oval to the same way Punt Road oval runs diagonally or even East/West. 3. Pollution, at some stage athletes are going to ask why they have to exercise right next to the freeway exit and one of Melbourne's busiest roads. I hope they look in to building some fencing in particular areas, upping the trees/vegetation etc. 4. Cost. It's going to be spending a lot of money to get a facility that doesn't add value through other businesses and might only last 20-30 years. What's the angle to get Government funding and to make some money from the new venue? 5. Oval use. I believe at the moment the team isn't training at Gosch's because it's in a poor state. If it remains public land and free to use then there should at least be some kind of protections put in place. 6. AFLW? The ground should be developed with an intent to be able to host 5,000 people for AFLW games.

I see him as an important part of the backline and particularly good cover for Lever in an intercepting role but unless Lever comes back stronger and more aggressive in one on ones I don't think Frost/Lever is enough as the key talls. Maybe that smaller combination works, or maybe it's Petty or even Oscar, there's lots of ways to get a decent enough backline, but May's the only guy who has speed, strength, size and smarts to really build a backline around.

Can you win a premiership with: Option A: May, Lever and Frost down back. Tom McDonald, Weid, Melksham forward Option B: Frost, Lever, Petty? down back. Tom McDonald, May, Melksham forward I'd say it's yes to A and no to B. Goals are created by intercepts and turnovers. When you pressure a side in to a mistake and create a mismatch or open man. Good key defenders who don't allow mistakes or clean them up and the allow for or create intercepts up the ground save more goals than good forwards who struggle to get one on ones or mismatches create. If the Weid doesn't make it then we need a replacement (and we absolutely need depth) and we need to upgrade the outside run and skill, but at least in the short term we don't need to be making desperate changes to the key forward stocks.

If Hill was out of contract then we'd have to beat the other teams to be his preferred destination then work a deal with Freo. Given he's in contract he has far less leverage, he can't just blindly nominate anyone, has to agree to a club that will make Freo happy enough to give him up. That's how we got May last year. May was keen on the Pies, Hawks, Dogs and us but it became clear the only side that could make the Suns happy was us, so to get out of Gold Coast he went with us. Players nominate clubs when a deal is likely. My guess is that teams interested in Hill know they'll have to offer up something juicy like a future first rounder and only if they are willing to do that then Hill gets a bit more choice. Freo held the Gold Coast over a barrel for Lachie Weller, so they know how to work it. I think our lack of interest stems not just from Hill looking elsewhere (Hawks, Saints) but the asking price being substantial.

Our current wing options: Fritsch 69% kicking efficiency (KE), turnovers 3.8 Metres Gained 330 Score Involvements 3.8 Contested Possesion rate 31.7 C Wagner 60.5% KE turnovers 3.2 MG 193 SI 4 CP 40.3 Stretch 65.8 % DE turnovers 2.6 MG 268 SI 3.6 CP 33.1 Baker 61.7 % DE turnovers 4.2 MG 333 SI 3.5 CP 26.8 Not metioned: KK and Vanders - both chronic injuries Langdon 58.9% KE, turnovers 4.6 Metres gained 412 SI 4.1 Contested Possession rate 30.2 Brad Hill 60.3% turnover 5.2 MG 481 SI 5.8 Contested possessions 22.2 Is Langdon a good kick - no, is his kicking efficiency and turnover rate significantly worse than other guys in his position - no. Here's a list of wingmen who have a higher average metres gained than him this year: Whitfield, Hill, Henderson, Smith, Atkins, Robinson, Fiorini and just Polec. He's ahead of Tom Phillips, Sheed, McCluggage, Hunter, Billings, Seedsman, Duncan and so on. He won't solve all our problems but having a wingman who can cover off defensively and then run and get the ball moving will make life so much easier for our half backs and inside midfielders. His hard running at speed more than makes up for his kicking limitations and I really think he'd make a nice compliment for Fritsch and Baker as a wing/forward rotation.

It's not meant to be a shot at his character, in my initial post I mentioned there was coercive factors. The reality is he's had a chance to commit to the admin of the club, had a chance to go down a coaching route and is an unexceptional media performer. If he wants to be upset with the club that's fine but I don't particularly care for his opinion as anything more than a fan and past player. Thankfully he isn't at the Tim Watson stage of rocking the boat from a distance.

I agree. On the Couch has potential and moments of quality but so much of it is awful. Healy absolutely nailed the Weagles Web a few years ago but most of the time craps on about the same rule changes and his favourite players, he doesn't have great hosting skills to get the most out of his colleagues. I warm to Jono Brown but he's a waste, even his good ideas get served up in mangled English. Roos is underutilised when it comes to his expertise in leadership and coaching, he's allowed to skate by without really producing an opinion. I've already said what I've said on Lyon who's probably the best of the guys on that show but doesn't offer a whole lot.

Strong rebuttal. Did he or did he not play a role in selecting coaches without being a long term commitment? Did he or did he not coach international rules and some junior teams, tease interest in AFL coaching and then not pursue it? It's his life, he can do what he wants, I don't blame him or wish him ill will but his media credentials are as a former champion player and as a good tv personality from his footy show days. He doesn't have a coaching background, doesn't have an administration background to give him some analytical skills or even a recent playing career. He hasn't actively been involved with an AFL club in anything more than a brief capacity for a long time now. When he commentates games he'll have some decent ideas - man up on good player X, stop kicking it to player Y, run harder, tackle better - and he's usually correct. He's also a professional at knowing when to talk, when to shut up etc. That alone puts him comfortably in the better AFL media personalities, but you rarely watch On the Couch or a Lyon commentated game and come away with greater understanding about the game. Derm talks crap 90% of the time but he has 10% commentary gold where you can learn something about a player. David King is 95% hyperbole and rubbish stats but every now and then Champion Data slip him a stat that matters. Gaz is perfectly decent but entirely unremarkable.

Maybe 2 boomer harvey's standing on top of each other? Sign them up.

Salem has been ultra consistent with his mop up work and wins contests at an excellent rate for a flanker, but as reliable as he is with the ball he doesn't break the game open with line breaking or penetrating kicks. His best kicks come when he gets the ball in tight and can then find a disposal that opens the game up. In uncontested play he doesn't break it open like a Whitfield or even a Saad/McKenna type. He'd be a very good player in any team in the comp but to be a great player he might have to be moved to the midfield. Unfortunately without a reliable replacement we can't really risk moving him. Although there's really no better time to try it than now when the results don't matter all that much. I'd give Jack Viney the week off, move Salem in to the midfield, Josh Wagner to half back alongside Hibberd and Jones and bring in Baker on a wing.

The criticism of Lyon comes from the fact he (either voluntarily or through coercion) wandered in to the club to have a bit of a dip at selecting coaches without joining the board and doing it properly. He had the same thing in his coaching career where he dipped the toes in but never put it on the line. He has nice TV skills but is a relatively lazy caller and panellist. There's little quality to his analysis. Whilst not actively bad like many in the industry he doesn't really seek out anything of interest. No advance stats. No tactical breakdown. There's a bunch of reasons we are where we are: 1. Injuries - losing May, Lever and Jetta for half a year screwed the backline and when they come back the best 2 forwards are out. 2. Lack of fitness after going all in for last year 3. A number of traded in players - Lewis, Hibberd, Garlett starting to trail off. By the way, the alternative to bringing in mature players in the Roos years was for the rebuild to take longer and slower and less chance of working. Can't have your cake and eat it too. 4. Recruiting failures in finding outside runners and small forwards - by the way we aren't the only club in that situation 5. Game plan - the advantages we had in 2017 and 2018, maybe even 2016 as well, have been found out. I truly believe our coaches got a lot out of the group in terms of tactics in previous years. Some worked, some didn't but we weren't boring and had a plan. 6. Coaching structure - there's something up with the McCartney situation, the Rawlings back to the forwards from Casey, Rooke etc. Acting overly emotional doesn't help. We won 10 games in 2016, 12 games in 2017 and plenty of games last year. That's largely without Lever and May, with a very young Oliver, Harmes, Brayshaw, Salem and Petracca, with Jack Viney missing a lot of footy. The President seems like he's not just an empty figurehead and is dipping in to support the footy department with some leadership. We have an experienced CEO. Mahoney's been in the job a while now, if he's up for it he'll get some things done and work with Goodwin to fix some of the gaps in the list, in the coaching structure and in the fitness area. It's not easy to express all of that on a TV show so I'm hardly surprised the claim is 2018 was an aberration.

He still has a burst of pace but otherwise I think the best player of the generation is a fair exception to the rule. Adam Goodes hung around for a while but he had key position size. As did Boomer Harvey but he kept his speed. They're all guys who played forward through long patches of their careers as well. The list of consistently good forwards in the 30+ range is pretty slim - Riewoldt, Hawkins, Franklin when not injured and maybe Betts - and there's no one the wrong side of 32 apart from Gaz.

I'm very confident there will be at least 30 players on our list who offer more than Lewis next year as well as 10 or so development kids. I see the argument for a bit of experience in those lost 5 spots but at that stage it's the back ups to the back ups and you're looking at guys who can perform set roles. Keilty is exactly that, he played earlier this year when we were so short on key forward/back up rucks that we needed him. Of course Lewis will almost always be a better player than the bottom 5 on the list who often get delisted without games but I'd take my chances making sure we can fill holes with guys who may even have upside.

Hodge sits in the back pocket and dictates to his opponent and importantly he still has the physicality required to go win a contest when needed. Melksham and Tom McDonald didn't play together when the midfield had any semblance of fitness and two way ability. I'm very confident that if they were playing now - or really any time after the bye - when our backline has got it together and our midfield are working hard that they would have success. Apart from getting those 2 back bringing in a Langdon on the wing should allow Fritsch more time forward. Spargo showed in year 1 he was crafty and smart, hopefully he gets back to that. Lockhart has had good moments. And the hope would be a top 5 pick gives us a player who can impact in the front half. A summer training together would surely help as well. Lewis couldn't play as a flanker who tags hard running defenders, they are going to be too quick for him, and he'd struggle as an attacking forward, any good defender will have no issues shutting him down. Cleverly minding an interceptor worked once, but will it really be a lasting move? Apart from speed he lacks the height and strength. I can't think of any other 30+ slow midfielder transitioning to a forward role and I think that's for good reason.

There's very little evidence for Gawn as a good forward. He can't offer defensive pressure, he shanks his kicks and he finds it harder to mark against a good key defender than when behind the ball against a ruck. Marshall is in excellent form. He does enough in the taps and is very good at following up and excellent at ground level. He'll lose the taps but win the battle against Preuss decisively. The Tigers are doing ok with Soldo and well with Chol as the extra midfielder type mobile ruck, same for McKernan as a ruck at Essendon. Preuss isn't like that, he's the opposite. He's competent in the ruck but offers little as an around the ground follower, he's more like Zac Clarke who the bombers struggled with. If Gawn's in the ruck he's odds on (but not entirely a guarantee) to win the ruck duel for the 80% of game time he and Marshall go head to head. The Saints aren't playing a second ruck so Tim Smith is actually perfect as a back up ruck against Acres or maybe Bruce. Especially on the quick track at Marvel it makes sense to get a forward in for the forward line and leave the best ruck in the ruck!

He’s a skillful kick in uncontested situations, any time he’s under pressure he goes to water and he sure isn’t breaking lines. He can’t play as a deep defender or on a wing, so forget those options. With a preseason and good coaching we’ve got taggers and center square options. It’s nice he held Bont and Murphy a little but he wasn’t exactly Cam Ling in the middle. I’m happy to look to the state leagues or delistings to find a back up mid if we turf the ones we have. Kids are the real future there and can come on quickly. Half back he can probably still play a bit but I genuinely think Jones and even Josh Wagner make sense as the depth options backing up Salem, Hibberd and Hore with Jetta, Lever, Frost and May as the deeper defenders. Add Petty and Oscar as tall depth and a couple of kids and you’ve got a backline group. Do I think the club will add forward depth and remodel the forward line - yes. Get Melksham and Tom McDonald back and there’s the remodeling. Melksham, Petracca and Fritsch are 3 mid sized attacking weapons who are miles ahead of Lewis. Hannan should be fitter and the small forward situation can’t get any worse. If we cut both the Smiths and couldn’t find just one midsized or tall forward then of course Lewis is better than no one but I find that hard to believe.

Thanks Mr Lewis. He's done. A few decent games in unusual roles doesn't change that. He's still struggling to play 4 quarters, falling over when attempting to tackle or win a contested ball and severely lacking pace. They've found some roles to give him a dignified exit and he's done them well but there's no way he's tagging in a serious game, we've got a more than handy tagger in Harmes and midfielders who will demand the centre square time. The tagging forward job worked but more times than not we can cover that with an actual forward like Melksham or Tim Smith.