DeeSpencer

Huge test for Lever this week coming up against a guy who was deliberately sent out to unsettle him in the grand final in Jacob Townsend. Townsend is a scrubber and dirty. I watched 2 minutes of the Essendon game and he was swinging arms in tackles and holding opponents down way off the ball. He's exactly the kind of player we should've got rather than Mitch Brown! Anyway, back to Lever. He can't be physically intimidated by Townsend. Lever is 24, he's a man now. He has to be smarter, more skilled and tougher than Townsend.

Smith's played 11 AFL games before Saturday, missed the entire 2019 season and has just come off an 8 week break due to a pandemic. Maybe cut him a bit of a break for one really poor decision. He did chop in front of his man and intercept (with a Jetta assist) the crucial game deciding inside 50. Maybe Smith won't be smart enough, that's pretty much the decision they made with Frosty, but his basketball background does give him an understanding of zone/man defending and it's up to May and Jetta and the coaches to get him right. At this stage I'm more concerned about the gigantic holes through our midfield and forward line zone, especially when Marvel stadium should be easier to block up than the MCG. Essendon have started games very strongly getting on their bikes and running in a Richmond wave like fashion

Agree on developing and coaching up more smart leaders. The team should be able to shift tempo smartly and to have some personnel move around for fresh match ups, but developing a plan B with a whole new way to move the ball and for players to move is incredibly difficult. I don't know how many teams actually do it. Also not sure about those payers you've named out of position. It was logical to try Jones at half back, ageing mids have had good success using their smarts across half back for years/decades probably. Salem's been a half back for a long time now, he's one of the leagues most reliable kicks in that role. Gus was getting blitzed out of the centre last year so they tried the wing, eventually got him back on ball, he's now playing a small part of the game on the wing but mostly on ball. Jetta is a deep defender in a zone defense, you play that way and sometimes he'll get left on a tall. Smith forward is a pipe dream based on sitting in the goal square for one preseason game, all his attributes point to a very good defender if developed. One big problem we have is that we have so few versatile players. Of yesterdays forward line the only one you'd trust down back is Fritsch who's had plenty of goes there. Melk and Jones could go on ball. The mids picked really are mids outside of Trac going forward and Oliver resting forward. Harmes could move from the backline but someone then has to take his spot. Same for Salem. We just don't have a lot of skilled and athletic players who can rotate around the ground.

Our list was terrible so Roos and co had no choice but to top it up with Cross, Vince, Bugg, Lewis, Tyson, Hibberd, Garlett etc for short term gains and then we've had some very ordinary draft years lately. That said, 19 of the 22 who played against the Cats in 2018 are still on the list. Only Frost, Tyson and Lewis have gone. I don't think personnel is the biggest issue, I think it's the fact that we didn't have any cohesion at any stage last year, so this year is pretty much a clean start. The forwards and backs probably need a bit of time given the changes, but the mids have played a lot of footy together and added experienced players on the wings. And a lot of the poor errors aren't so much game plan but lack of footy smarts and awareness. 2 guys off the street should be able to work together at AFL level with basic communication and discipline.

Centre bounce attendances from our games so far. Marsh 1: (total 29) Oliver 23 Petracca 23 Viney 21 Sparrow 17 Marsh 2 (total 21) Petracca 19 Oliver 15 Viney 14 Brayshaw 12 Round 1 (total 23) Oliver 19 Viney 18 Petracca 17 Brayshaw 15 I'd expect a reasonably similar ratio from yesterdays game. Of course that doesn't factor in to account what role the players are taking on within that system, but I think Gus got at least some run of it in the middle. My concern is more he's surplus of the same type of player more than whether he's completely fallen off the cliff or not. For a team that needs his skillset I'd imagine he'd still do the job.

Brayshaw's best form came with Viney out and for his many faults Viney brings more burst at the contest, more pressure around the packs and more work rate. In a side with Oliver, Viney and Petracca it's just hard for Gus to get the full minutes as the designated rover where he can use his smarts and clean hands in close to thrive. And he hasn't seemed to make the kind of drastic changes to his preparation to really go to the next level physically, nor can he replicate the first year success he had in the forward line with tackle pressure and hunting the contest. I'd have him play half back but it could just as quickly end badly as go well. I firmly believe they looked in to trading him last year. If they didn't the club was negligent. And I also think the rest of the league probably took one look at his injury history and contract and said you can have a 3rd round pick and pay part of his contract. Freo of previous years probably would've done a better deal but Longmuir is smarter than most.

There's little evidence from training or Casey games that Jordon is a laser like kicker, can be good with some time and space and has penetration but has never looked classy like Rivers did immediately and isn't any quicker than Gus.

Pickett got a week for going to the party. Spargo got one week for going and one week for taking Pickett. Spargo needs a huge kick up the backside. He's turning in to the classic MFC private school kid who's happy collecting a few years of cheques without fulfilling his potential.

At which time of the game did you think Cripps need tagging? The first quarter when we dominated and he got 7 touches and did nothing with them? The second quarter where he only touched it twice? The 3rd quarter where he had 5 touches and 2 clangers. Or the last quarter where he still only had 2 clearances? The midfield did a very good job on Cripps. Easily Cripps' biggest impact on the game was when he went forward in the last quarter and we couldn't get the zones/roles or match ups right. Marc Murphy was the Carlton midfielder who hurt us most. Langdon is a bit improvement but otherwise our midfielders still struggle to defend in space which is very concerning.

The Gawn miracle tap gave Carlton there first scoring chance and some momentum, was very silly. Although it might've been that the Carlton mids switched to roving and calling for the tap from him. Still, our senior players have to be smarter. I don't think you can bemoan predictable kick outs and then ban May from kicking out. Can't have your cake and eat it too. May hit a number of targets from 30-40 out that broke open the zones. Unfortunately he went for a few miracle look away kicks (a Jordan Lewis invention last year) and tried to lace some 50m out. I'm fine with May taking a share of the kick outs and continuing to go for 30-40m options because he has a very good penetrating kick on that distance, just put away the Hollywood stuff. Hopefully Rivers gets his chance to take some kick outs soon. Fritsch's kicking for goal was off, they were all bad misses, including the snap on his right where he had time to get on his left. But there's very little evidence than Hannan is the answer, at least not until his body holds up for a consistent period. Hannan's set shot technique is even more concerning than Fritsch's, he has an even higher ball drop and slices across the ball. Hunt looks good on TV. His hard leads for the ball are what I like best about his game. But both that and his chase down tackles look good on zoomed in TV when he's around the ball. Watch him live though and I don't think you'd call him a smart footballer. It's why he ends up with only 7 disposals, 7 pressure acts and 2 tackles.

Oscar's been a core part of the team for years when they've continued to all fly at the same ball. It was hardly a new problem tonight. In fact this may be harsh but I reckon Oscar's lack of reliability in a pack has been a key part of why Jetta, Hibberd and our other small defenders have always been so desperate to leave their men and fly 3rd or 4th or 5th man up. I've never seen May as a CHB. He played one great game against the Swans chopping 3rd man across against Buddy but otherwise his main strength has been as a lock down defender. His body didn't hold up to the extra kms last year. He's not overly tall and has flat hands when marking. I still think the best role for May is to try to get what the Tigers get with Grimes and before him Rance. Deepest defender who gets his share of intercepts dropping back in to space. Oscar could come in and play the Astbury role but if we keep midfield pressure combined with having May and Smith behind him he shouldn't face one on ones inside defensive 50. At some stage Jake has to start winning contests even if he's against a dangerous CHF.

One of the biggest failures of the Roos era - being unable to convince Howe he was a defender and making sure the club saw his value as such. Given his desire to be a forward I wasn't too upset we effectively swapped him for Hibberd who was a better kick and more reliable at the time, but what I'd give for him now. Still, I can't believe our lack of success drafting and developing defenders the last few years. We've paid a lot for May and Lever and how many have we drafted Petty, Hore, Lockhart, Joel Smith. Should be taking athletic/competitive talents every year and developing them. It was refreshing to see Rivers come in and look comfortable.

2.1. Not sure if any out on the full or dropped short. McGovern roamed free up the ground and took some marks, they didn't get the zones or switches right. The other two hardly touched it, 1 touch inside 50 for each of them.

I have faith with the back 7 from this week to improve as they play together more. I can back in Tomlinson on a wing even though I think he's rather ordinary. Gawn, Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Langdon pick themselves. But we have to make at least 1 change to the midfield to get a better balance and we need to mix up the forward line. I'd give Jackson another week, the wide open space of the MCG should suit him more, there was a lot of almost moments. Melksham and T Mc get chances to do more. Bennell clearly stays. Fritsch should get more freedom up the ground to use his versatility but he's not going anywhere. Nibbler - well he Nibbled as well as he could today. And Hunt's speed and hard leading deserves a reward. That leaves: Out: Brayshaw - cover his midfield minutes with a variety of quicker and more skilled players Jones - he just doesn't have it any longer In: Vanders Pickett

Casboult, McGovern and McKay combined for all of 2 goals. I don't think we missed the big witches hat at all.

Did you see Tomlinsons' attempts at overhead marks today? He's inept in that area for his size. Rivers, Harmes and Joel Smith give us 3 mobile defenders with height who can hit the contests, they just need up field pressure and confidence to attack the ball or man. The first quarter showed what the backline can do when the pressure is on. The backline's bigger problem was knowing their roles and finding the right balance. The forward and mid accountability was - as usual - horrendous.

Has to be both body and mind with T Mc. It's clear he has no agility or strength in the legs. Struggles to turn or jump. But his mind seems awful as well. When he was shifted forward he got a new lease on life and confidence in a team that could really move the ball and give him a chance to clunk a few. Now the team is struggling and he's not touching it much and it's clearly in his head. Something needs to change and fast.

Lever is a good peel off defender in a side that can get decent forward and midfield pressure. But he’s not big or athletic enough to clunk intercepts over packs like McGovern, Moore or Andrews. Or even Howe or Sicily. I think we persevere with him at CHB. He’ll get stronger at the contest and reads the play well. Smith did some excellent defensive things. He mostly blanketed McKay who isn’t a great player but can be dangerous on a lead. He has great closing speed, a big tank and understands angles. He made 2 big mistakes - the attempted hanger and leaving Betts at a contest we had aerial covered. But Frost kept doing that for 4 years, let’s give Smith 4 games alongside Lever and May and if he’s not totally stupid and has half decent coaching he’ll settle.

I'd love to see Rivers get a go and we could absolutely do without Hibberd's desperate long bombs to no one, I'd just be worried that putting a young kid in to the backline puts more defensive pressure on the likes of Lever and Salem and might shift Harmes deeper in to a more defensive role. After last year the coaches have to prioritise a working defensive structure. If Rivers is really excelling with his defensive work as well as with the ball then get him in.

Oscar should be better this year with a full preseason but I just don't see any reason why he'd suddenly find the aggression and confidence to start taking marks or the quick mind and quick feet to attack the game. He can get back to what he was in 2018 which was a useful plodder to sit on the oppositions weaker key forward (if they have one) but his use then becomes about match ups. If there's a second big bloke who's too tall or strong for Lever or someone like Hibberd or Smith then Oscar gets a game, but if there's not a match up that suits Oscar I'd rather try and finally find out if Smith can get a run of games. In terms of repeat efforts to get the ball then Nath Jones is the logical choice at half forward. ANB has a wonderful defensive motor as well but he doesn't stick his tackles against the good teams, with shorter quarters a rotation of young smalls who tackle with more aggression like Pickett, Bedford or Chandler should be trialled. Spargo has the smarts and a pretty decent tank but he's entered the JKH zone of clearly not being comfortable to execute his skills or to mix it physically.

FB: ***** May ****** HB: Salem Lever Harmes C; Langdon Oliver Tomlinson HF: Jones McDonald Melksham FF: Pickett Fritsch ****** Foll: Gawn Petracca Viney Int (from): - Jetta v Hibberd v Lockhart - J. Smith v Oscar - Brayshaw - Jackson v Weid v Brown - Chandler/ANB/Spargo/Bedford ?? Hunt ??? Vanders Assuming they stick with Harmes at half back then I'd go with Joel Smith over Oscar, Hibberd keeps his spot as he's the logical match up on Jack Martin, Jetta gets another run. Brayshaw keeps his spot because he has to be given first go on Cripps, but Gus needs to deliver. The forward line is tricky but I lean towards going with Weid as the second tall and then throwing Jackson in as a wildcard, especially if they think his tackling and ground ball work is as good as most smalls. I maintain the belief in Chandler as the best small to pair with Kossie, particularly if we want to use Fritsch and Melksham up the ground more in a taller set up than round 1.

Keeping the forwards in the forward line is a good point. That's a big part of why the Giants used Tomlinson as they did. The 3 tall fowards they had were dangerous. If any pair of McDonald, Brown or Weid were doing very well up forward then you'd want to keep them there for the full game. Jackson I feel a little different with because I want to see him do small bursts in the ruck and show off that upside. The short quarters are also a consideration here because once Gawn hits full match fitness he could ruck even more than he currently does (in percentage terms). One of the other big considerations is I'm sure we pitched Tomlinson time to settle in a position and show his talent with the ball (whatever that may be). I think he lost a few kilos of bulk over summer in order to play that wing role. That said, Richmond sold Caddy on the idea of more midfield time before he had his best ever season as an undersized key forward.

The shorter quarters actually favour someone like Baker or Hunt, explosive speed guys without the tanks to do 85% of 20 minute quarters on the wings which is what Tomlinson was bought in for. I just don't think Tomlinson is all that good in the ruck, not an upgrade on Weid or Jackson, and I don't think he's much of a forward either. He's not all that tall, isn't quick or powerful or a good mark. If he were to play forward I'd expect it would be as a high motor CHF type and we've got plenty of that already. Plan A seems to be to have Tomlinson and Langdon do 85-100% of game time on the wings so the team benefits from their positioning, discipline and high motors and then use the extra rotations on keeping the forward line motoring. Barring injuries or suspension I think we'll give that a month at least to see if it works. If Vanders and Bennell can get back then we're looking at some different options on the wings/half forwards and might be able to mix things up a bit

Seems clear as day that they should. His best ever game against the Cats came when he got a stack of touches in the ruck and kept that belief up forward. In most games he gets his hands to about 8 marks and takes about 1 of them, with mental or physical pressure causing him to spill plenty. Down back you don't have a defender crashing in to you and you simply have to hold your marks or you'll cost the team, he'll quickly start holding his marks and hopefully keep that confidence. He's also one of the best clean handballers on both sides of his body on the list and isn't a bad field kick so he shouldn't be a total turnover merchant. We can't waste a year of his development right now, if he can't get a game up forward we have to get him games down back.

I'd rather get Tom McDonald back to the player he was in the 2nd half of the 2017 season and in 2018. But we'll probably know by the end of the year if that's possible or if his mind and body are all but shot. I'd be surprised if Daniher is anywhere other than Essendon or north of the Murray next year. I'd support the club rolling the dice on him but the chances of him choosing us as well seem rather low.