DeeSpencer

Second year in a row North have screwed us (with afl help this time). Last year we were eyeing off Port’s pick 9 in a Jackson trade that would’ve had us in line to get up further to get Humphrey. North messed that up when JHF became available. This year we want pick 11 but it’s hard to see how we beat North for it, they just have so much more to offer. And we’re surely no chance of getting all the way to pick 1.

Doubt it’s his decision, clubs are probably weighing up other options first. Ie. Essendon pull interest if they land Duursma. Richmond pull interest unless Port pay up for Soldo etc.

More free agents too. McAdam should be a free agent, Fullarton too. If you’ve done 4-6 years, aren’t high paid, aren’t a young player then why even be traded? Restricted free agency for young players, franchise tags or contracts can be used to protect really important players until they reach their own free agency. The salary cap should take care of the rest. And then trades can happen when it’s mutually beneficial without this ridiculous haggling and public bartering.

Trading players without their consent is terrible, they don’t make enough money for that disruption. It’s a terrible system. There’s lots of better changes possible. But clubs do hold players to contracts. There’s plenty who want to leave and don’t make it to trade week. Freo can hold him or open up bids to everyone else if the Pies don’t come to the party. The nature of the family issues and the Pies keenness to pay up will probably determine if Freo budge.

Schulz a free agent next year, due to delisted free agency. What a mess that covid inspired exception is. If I’m Freo I’m still holding him and expecting someone to pay end of first round money based on Doedee.

It’s not done yet, if I’m Freo I’m asking for 2 first round picks. North would surely offer one of their end of first rounders if they could get him. No reason for Freo to give him away a year early for anything but massive overs.

What do you reckon? Future first (14-18 hopefully), 25 and 39 for 10 and maybe some future late picks. Doesn’t immediately help the Suns with points but they’ll be able on trade the future 1 for more. Don’t love that deal for us because with 5 and 13 we’ll be having a lot of picks in the same range of the draft. And a range I don’t love. I’d only want 10 if we can package two of 5/10/13 in to someone in the premium range of this draft.

Harmes played the 2 finals last year on the wing but didn’t have a sustained run there since about 2017, I’m not convinced it would work, but I wonder if a team will try that with him next year. Agree on the others but we never gave Harmes a string of games as his form and fitness never demanded it.

Harmesy admitted he wasn’t in his best shape in 2022 but I think he gave it everything this year. Injuries played a role I’m sure. But the motivation to back up when you’re stuck in coffin corner playing defensive half forward is hard to find. Adams is VC and best 22 at the Pies and he’s had enough of it. He knows he plays another year, gets injured again and he’s on basement 1 year deals. So he’s off for 3 in Sydney. Should we have made Harmesy a wing? Maybe, I always liked his potential in that role? Should we have prioritised him over Gus or Sparrow as on baller 4 or 5 as he was in the flag - possibly. But every chance we did the right thing and it was time for him to have a fresh start.

Ravens, Eagles, Chiefs

I didn’t. And if 2019 wasn’t 4 years ago that might be a factor.

Adams was the biggest butcher around which is why Fly moved him to half forward -where he was very good. Be interesting to see if the Swans even let him play predominantly midfield and if his body holds up. Grundy will be painfully good for them tho. He thrives on the responsibility of being the number 1 ruck. Longmire will scream at his defensive efforts but he might be motivated to improve them. And I like JJ and Hamling as free agents. Just not sure what they’ve paid JJ but they seem to have cap space. Hamling a risk worth taking, I’d have him for Tomlinson for sure, but he’s not the ideal fit for what we need from a 3rd tall, but a nice fit next to Rampe and McCartin. I’d say smart shopping for a youngish side needing to beef up. McAdam could work out well for us. Fullarton is an ok low cost flier. Would like to see us do something for pace and/or a versatile tall before the draft being our main focus.

No, I just think footy stats are incredibly devoid of context. I’m better Daicos had a way higher metres gained than even peak Billings, and in things not measured or freely available - speed of ball movement and risk/kick rating I’m tipping he’d move it faster and to better spots. Factors ignored by basic stats but evident when one player is All Aus and the other battles away in the VFL for a lot of games because Ross Lyon doesn’t want to play him. Maybe I’ve undersold Billings’ field kicking but aside from the significant injury risk I don’t see him as an upgrade at half forward or on the wing.

That’s disposal efficiency, his kicking efficiency has been above average or average for his career. But his contested possession rate has always been below average in the mid to high 20%. If you’re getting uncontested ball you should hit a higher percentage of effective disposals, doesn’t mean you’re an impactful kick. He lacks penetration. He’d be a slightly better kick than Hunter on a wing but there’s no way to trust his body. And lack of pace and lack of kicking penetration would hurt us just like they do with Hunter. I guess his 30m kicks would be better than Lachie’s heaves. But it would just be a different flavour of older slower wing. He’d definitely be a better short inside 50 kick than some of our half forward options but he’s never been a pressure player. I’d rather in form Spargo who can pressure and kick inside 50 or put more time in to kids.

Billings has kicked 108 goals and 123 points in his career. For a skilful player he’s a dreadful kick for goal and his field kicking doesn’t stack up either. We’re getting McAdam - 72 goals, 40 behinds for some forward line depth. If we had faith in his body he could do Hunter’s job but we don’t need another Hunter. Of the perennially injured saints players I’d prefer Dan McKenzie who was looking like a very handy quick wingman before his body blew apart.

They could do a Dunkley style deal where they match if he’s taken outside of Victoria and not match if another Vic club takes him. And/or match if he falls outside a certain pick. But my guess is they don’t trade up to pick 4 unless they have him as well, effectively guaranteeing they’ll have exchanged 3 firsts to get 2 firsts or two in the top 25 ish.

The one I’d look at from the Pies is Trey Ruscoe. He’s a bit of a character but he’s a good size, decent athlete and can win the ball. I think he’d make a nice back pocket option should we need to cover McVee. Or the undersized third tall role Hibbo played this year. We’re light on for defensive depth and his VFL form was strong.

Body is shot, and even if it wasn’t he’s either a mediocre wingman or a forward who doesn’t pressure and misses his set shots. We need pace!

Short and slow, can only play on the wing because his lack of pace everywhere else is a killer.

Eliza West is in poor form which leaves too much for Purcell to do. Backline top heavy as well, think we’ll see Chaplin in for Colvin (or Birch). Half forwards and mids couldn’t get in to the game today. Pressure and possibly wind just messing with our uncontested game? But we’re a run and carry side and if we don’t establish that game we just look hopeless at half forward going to bigger and we’ll positioned defenders

The entire team are playing with BBE. Big Birch Energy

Midfield getting beat up and making some silly decisions. Need to do the basics

I’d argue you don’t watch Dees games intently if you think Hunter’s kicking was good. It was dreadful. He lifted his contested work in the finals but unless we find a way to get him the ball more in space he’s just going to be looping the ball 30m down the line to no one.

We don’t have the key position depth to stop him getting opportunities as a forward even if Gawn is healthy. Going small with 2 talls is probably the optimal set up but to get through the home and away we’ll need Fullarton or Schache to play games. I’m hoping Fullarton can grab that chance because it would allow us to manage Max in games and he’d bring something different to our midfield mix.

VFL this year: 18 matches, 30 goals, 15.3 disposals, 4.5 marks, 4.6 hit outs (Lions often played 2 primary rucks). He’s discount discount Luke Jackson. Id be concerned he doesn’t hold up as a starting ruck, nor does he make a consistent impression as a forward ruck. But he’s well suited to cover both roles and I can’t imagine he’ll cost much as a contract or a trade.