praha

Not at all confident but gee whiz , Brisbane is not Prelim caliber. We should at least get there. A Geelong vs Brisbane Prelim is going to be a snorefest.

I very nearly gave up my AFL membership the last two years. As a Gold tier member i am effectively guaranteed a ticket to the GF if Melbourne makes it... I think I'll hold onto the membership for a few more years at least :p

"THE DINGO ATE MY SAUSAGE" - Chef

Melbourne only has 2000ish AFL Members and Brisbane way less so the whole area would be reliant on neutrals + potential for GA to open up there.

Just jumped on their Bigfooty forum and had a rather uneventful discussion with a Lions supporter over there. It went like this: Me: Brisbane sucks! Brisbane supporter: Hey, stop talking bad about my team, man. Me: Why don't you make me. Brisbane supporter: I don't make trash, I burn it. Me: Then I guess you're a garbage man. Brisbane supporter: I know you are, but what am I? Me: A garbage man. Brisbane supporter: Oh, I know you are, but what am I? Me: A garbage man. Brisbane supporter: I know you are, but what am I? Me: A garbage man. It went on and on like this for about 50 responses across a few days now with no signs of slowing down. They're a stubborn bunch at Springfield.

MFCSS

AFL Reserve still has tickets "Level 4 - Front" and now also have General Admission tickets from $10 for members meaning it's basically open gates. My prediction has dropped to 55k.

Problem with a permanent base at Casey is that you limit the talent pool (mostly off-field) when you move operations to outer suburbs. Casey is nice little additional home to have but there must be a reason why it's not being considered long term.

A lot to unpack here but the comments re. Jackson's knee and Melbourne’s defensive issues are spot on. Jackson is set for knee surgery this off season. On the defensive concerns I raised a similar concern in another thread, we defend well but transition poorly, and struggle with high pressure small forwards. Hence struggles against Sydney, Collingwood, Bulldogs, and even Freo earlier in the season. I am worried about both Raynor and Cameron on Friday night, they could be genuine game winners.

Gonna bet 52k-57k

Don't disagree mate. Just highlighting what a loss represents. I think we're a good shot against Geelong as well.

No.

Ah yes I can read the history books now! "While Melbourne was statistically the worst top 4 side in history vs the other three teams making up the top 4, they got within two wins of the Grand Final, and *were* a big chance against Geelong but didn't win. So all good."

I might be wrong but looking at this we turn the ball over most on the defensive flank on the AFL Reserve/Shane Warne Stand wing when kicking to City end (based on his comments in corresponding Tweets that we use the opposite wing more often so assume that's the Members wing). Also makes sense as I get the feeling we do turn the ball over most directly in front of where I am sitting lol but we target the flanks out of defense and there is a stoppage, which we generally win but turn the ball over in high pressure contests as seen against Sydney. Looking at this holistically though we're really not that bad. We need to hold possession for longer against high pressure teams and "scrum" the ball forward. We look for clear passage out in the hope every team we play defends like North. We then over handball and run into trouble, causing the turnover. Suspect if we are lucky enough to face Sydney again in the Grand Final it could be a very low scoring slug of a contest.

We're a theatre crowd whereas Collingwood, Carlton etc are hockey crowds. We're like the Knicks at Maddison Square Garden: quiet and timid if thing aren't going well or are boring but we slowly build up and rock the joint when things go well. I went to a Knicks game once and in the first quarter you could hear a pin drop. In the last quarter when they took the lead after being 20 points down the stadium was literally shaking. On the flip side when I was in Memphis the crowd wouldn't shut the [censored] up the whole night. Outside of the games against GWS and Brisbane, and patches here and there, we haven't had a chance to be "loud" in front of a big crowd. Kozzie's goal against Carlton the exception and that was a great atmosphere especially when the siren went. We sit back and enjoy and clap but it's almost like we're a sleeping giant: we don't make noise unless we have a reason to. Suspect Friday will be the same. If we win and go to the Prelim thatll be a different story. Prelim atmosphere is organically very loud.

It's as if weather is dynamic and changing, and not static...

You'd take him in a heartbeat to get him into the club provided he's prepared to play as a Fritsch replacement. Imagine if Fritsch didn't get up for Brisbane and his replacement is Reiwoldt still kicking goals from the boundary lol

twitter.com/BlakeJohnson/status/1566698035882512385

Got Level 1 open in AFL reserve. Strongly recommend everyone download the Ticketek app. I had three browser windows on different devices open from 11;50am. Opened the app at 11:58 and got in on the app bang on 12pm. By the time I finished buying tickets and testing a few different areas of the ground it was 12:08 and the browsers were still in queue lol

Neutrals start rocking up for the Semis as it's the last time non-competing fans can realistically get tickets -- I know of four people there on Friday who go for neither Melbourne nor Sydney. Finals particularly first and second weeks are always made up of around 10-15% Neutrals. This week will be no different. Melbourne fans even thinking of not going who can attend have rocks in their head: it's our fourth final in Melbourne in 16 years and we're a contender with a second chance. Now is the time more than ever to show up and get loud. 60k+ would be a fantastic achievement. People understate how good 78k was against Sydney. Pies will likely get 80k against Freo who get good travelling support so 65k-70k should be an expected result for Friday night.

Will fit right in then!

If we beat Brisbane but lose to Geelong we'll actually go down as having statistically the worst record against the top 4 after actually finishing in the top 4: no top 4 team in history has finished with an 0-6 record against the other 3 top 4 teams.

I don't buy this. Optus Stadium has similar dimensions and we play it very well. The problem is we play a congested game on the MCG and target the flanks which limits our drive and effectively neutralises Langdon, Hunt and Brayshaw. We seem to organically without thinking target the MCC wing which is historically "our wing" but we always seem more dangerous in the AFL reserve wing (ie. Langdon's wing). When we play through the corridor we look super dangerous otherwise it's a hope that we'll get drive from the stoppage. We weren't terrible on Friday but there has to be something about losing to these same teams on the SAME ground.

True. Herculean if we even make the Prelim imo.

I'm not at all. I actually say i don't want to take anything away from them because they've been awesome when they play us. I'm merely highlighting a theme that isn't just 1 or 2 games.