Everything posted by Fat Tony
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PREGAME: Rd 04 vs Geelong
Can't believe anyone would be advocating for TMac to be dropped. He has had a Wheelo player rating of 13.1 this season, which is 3rd in the side. He should play on Cameron this week. Petty or May need to be reassigned or dropped. Pickett, Windsor, Lever and Turner must all come into the side. Lindsay obviously out. I would drop Johnson, Fritsch and Howes. Petty to be sub or play forward.
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Time to start a rebuild?
There have just been a handful of seven-year contracts that have been good for the signing club. I didn't argue that they were the wrong call at the time. I just said that the Petracca and Oliver contracts only made sense to give us a chance from 2022-2024 and we are now paying the price.
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Time to start a rebuild?
Our list is hamstrung by bad, long-term contracts to Oliver, Petracca and Viney. Oliver and Viney can only play midfield and these players are now too slow and poorly skilled to take us to the top of the mountain again. The Petracca and Oliver contracts were the price of doing business to compete from 2022-2024. The Viney extension was just dumb. None of these players are tradable without eating significantly into our salary cap. We also have limited draft capital so we are going to have to nail the back end of the draft to give ourselves a chance to bounce back.
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Game plans, tactics and all that jazz
Geelong don’t play like that at all. They play a fast ball movement game in straight lines. We don’t have the list to play a possession game. Bowey and McVee and the only defenders with the kicking skills required to play that way. All our key unskilled players are on big money, long contracts and are in decline. This is a problem without a clear solution.
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POSTGAME: Rd 03 vs Gold Coast
We don’t have foot skills to execute such a plan.
- Time to start a rebuild?
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Game plans, tactics and all that jazz
We clearly don’t have the foot skills to chip the ball around in the backline. May, Rivers, Lever, Petty, Oliver, Viney and Langdon can’t maintain possession and will turn it over. I know kicking down the line to Max isn’t a modern way forward but we don’t have the list profile to play any other method.
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Jack Viney Extends Contract Until 2028
I hate to say this, the decision to extend Viney was a shocker. 3 games into the season and it’s hard to see any of our 3 gun midfielders giving value from their contracts.
- PREGAME: Rd 03 vs Gold Coast
- PREGAME: Rd 03 vs Gold Coast
- PREGAME: Rd 03 vs Gold Coast
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PREGAME: Rd 03 vs Gold Coast
I think the key reason for our form since mid-2024 is that Max has been in decline. In the first 11 games last season, Max polled coaches votes in 8 games and had a median player rating of 20.6. In his last 12 games, this he has polled coaches votes in just 3 games and had a median player rating of 14.5. He has still played fairly well, but he is no longer a top 3 player in the competition. The dip might be due to age or injury last year; or it could be a change in the game, reducing the impact of stoppages and promoting faster ball movement. Interestingly, Max’s worst rated game in the last 12 months was against the Sun’s last year, when we flogged them by 54 points!
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POSTGAME: Rd 02 vs North Melbourne
We desperately miss Kossie and Windsor (and McVee) today. Our lack of speed was the main issue. Melksham and May will also make us much better. Petracca had a stinker. (Only Frisch, Pink and Jefferson had lower Wheelo player ratings.) Spargo is finished as a player. I know he is a good kick inside 50 but he is way too slow for a small forward at AFL level and cannot compete in the air. The high half forward role Fritsch is currently playing is taking away our best deep target and giving us nothing up the field. Play him at full forward or drop him. Petty had a very poor game and lacks pace. TMac had one horrible moment but is a much better bet when May returns. I don't have Petty in our best 23 at the moment. Obviously Max getting thrashed in the ruck was critical. Hopefully Goodwin gives up on playing Rivers in the midfield. We have taken away one of our best rebounders and coverage defenders and inserted another midfielder with poor skills and not enough pace. He is not complimentary to Petracca, Oliver and Viney in the midfield. Petty, TMac, Bowey and Woewodin had critical errors. Chandler was fantastic. Salem had a very good game. Oliver was involved but is still a liability with ball in hand. Lindsay had another solid game. Expected score was 111 to 82, so we left too many points on the table again with poor goal kicking.
- PREGAME: Rd 02 vs North Melbourne
- PREGAME: Rd 02 vs North Melbourne
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May moved forward?
When we are all fit, I think one of Petty, McDonald or May needs to play forward. TMac is way too good to leave out.
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Game plans, tactics and all that jazz
We scored a lot from stoppage vs GWS and I don't think we were that good at transitioning the ball from defence and I thought we struggled a bit when they escaped our forward half press. We really missed the pressure of Kossie and the cool head of McVee in defence when they were in the open, so I reserve judgement about the defensive method. I know we can't just kick it long to Max with Petracca at his feet all the time, but I still think it needs to be part of our gameplan. We have the best contested marker and best front and square crumber. This tactic also means, if we win the contest, we get more one on ones with slippery forwards ahead of the ball (Frisch, Kossie, Turner, Melksham). I also think it is an error not to play Lindsay on the left wing when kicking to the City end. I understand Langdon does not come off, but the transition game is much smoother when they are both having their kicking legs on the outside.
- PREGAME: Rd 02 vs North Melbourne
- PREGAME: Rd 02 vs North Melbourne
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PREGAME: Rd 02 vs North Melbourne
Turner should be available and Jefferson or Johnson would have to be dropped to get him in. Howes getting tactically subbed out shows how poorly the coaches felt of his game. We would have taken off a key forward had he been doing well, so I could easily see Rivers move back this week. And surely TMac proved he is in our best side. He was excellent yesterday.
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POSTGAME: Rd 01 vs GWS
Thought TMac was definitely one of our best. The decision not to pick him initially was a shocker. I felt we were too top heavy in the forward line. The extra tall means that Fritsch plays further up the ground and takes away his strength. The main reason we lost was poor accuracy from set shots. I also felt Kossie being out cost us 4 points.
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TRAINING: Saturday 15th March 2025
Congratulate the subs but not the emergencies.
- PREGAME: Rd 01 vs GWS
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Forward line questions
Against the Dockers, we kicked 11 goals 18 behinds, with 5 rushed and 1 touched. Part of the reason for poor kicking was the wind, but we really missed some easy shots. I know it was a repeat of a number of our losses in recent years, but hopefully it comes good in the real stuff. I am pretty optimistic that we will win 16+ games if our midfield averages 63-45 inside 50s per week. (Conceding 109 points from 45 entries was more concerning IMO.) I think our forward line works best with Melksham in the side. He is clever in the way he blocks and makes sure that there is enough spacing between the forwards so that we get more one-on-one contests. Fritsch is much better as a deep forward. I am not convinced in Viney or Rivers as forwards. I think we would be better playing Rivers back and giving our other midfielders more time on ball. Oliver had an impact as a forward, but I think he is better as a midfielder. Langford could be a weapon with his marking and long kicking, but this might be a 2026 story.
- POSTGAME: Practice Match vs Fremantle