Vipercrunch

I shudder at the thought of another trade period trying to get a fair deal over the line with Peter frickin Bell....

There's a link to the presser here with some time blocks to specifically listen to (assuming that like most, you have zero interest in listening to Chris Scott for any longer than you have to) Top 4 is of course preferred, but I think going forward teams will now lean towards risking a top 4 finish in order to make sure they nail their in season loading.

Time will tell, but I think we'll see it more and more often in the coming years. Chris Scott believes loading is the only way to win flags and is willing to risk finals by doing it. He clearly thinks missing top 4 is not the be all and end of all.

God I hope not. That was horrible last year.

There's plenty of evidence (MFC last season, Chris Scott's comment from the weekend to name two) to suggest there is another 4-5 week block of loading to come. Don't expect the form and execution turnaorund to happen until at least rounds 18 or 19.

I've tipped us to go 5W-4L, finishing with 15-7. If that means we finish outside the top 4 then so be it. As long as we aren't overly affected by injuries (and other uncontrollables), we can still win the flag from outside the top 4 if we gain all the benefits from this period that we are hoping for. Looking at our next 5 games, theres every reason to suggest our toughest opponents could very well be Port and Western Bulldogs who can't risk loading. Geelong have made it public they are loading and should expect poor performances over the next period and Brisbane looks like they are too.

I have no doubt if we prepare well now and aren't hit too hard by injuries, we can win from outside the top 4.

I think any deviation away from the 4 week cycle shown so perfectly in the graph posted by @BW511would be a compromise to the overall outcome. That doesn't mean any deviation could be perfectly justified as there is always so much going in within clubs.

Very nasty and not very pleasant viewing. He's a good kid too 😞

I think the shorter preseason would have meant we worked a little harder on the track over the early H&A season period compared to 2021, but I think the main two cycles we want to get in will be the same. One 4 or 5 week cycle before the bye, use the CBA agreed 4 days off over the bye as a rest/recovery period before another 4 or 5 weeks after. This will leave us with the final 4 or 5 rounds to iron out gameplan, form and personell issues and training will become all about maintiaing the fitness levels rather than improving fitness. What this means for how we perfrom against Brisbane is anyones guess though? We won our game after last seasons bye against Essendon, but played quite poorly. This year the bye is extra short though, so we won't be getting in a full week of heavy training before we play (maybe 2 sessions), so could come out quite fresh. The other unknown is what Brisbane are doin. They will be desperate to avoid going out in straight sets again, so might be loading to the extreme. It could be a very error riddled game.

I suspect our decision makers think the risk of missing the top 4 is worth the reward of being cherry ripe. Scott suggested in his press conference last night that Geelong are hapy to miss the finals completely!! I would be more than happy to miss top 4 if we get there as fit as we were last year.

ABC Grandstand are going to address the comments of Scott shortly.

https://www.afl.com.au/video/783218/full-post-match-r14-cats?videoId=783218&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1655549142001 Scott talks a lot about loading a lot in the first half of the press conference. It actually seemed he wants it on the agenda. If you can't stomach listening to too much, have a listen to 2.50-3:10, 4.20-5.30, 9.10-9.35 (even saying it comes with no guarantees!!!).

That’s a key reason for the lack of discussion about it. Betting firms run the footy media and have a vested interest in punters being in the dark about this. They want bets placed with the heart of supporters, not their well informed brains.

“Scott’s gave context to the performance post-match when he said the team had ramped up its mid-season program significantly as part of a bigger plan to peak during September. "It's what we do during the middle period of the year. We double down, even more than we might have done in previous years," Scott said. "We might cost ourselves a little short-term, but we set up our program to be at our best when it counts. "If we finish ninth because we try to prime ourselves to be at our best later in the year, then we'll live with that. "We haven't been able to execute that over the last few years anyway. That's a reason to do it better." The section I’ve got in bold is why I think Melbourne is not done with the loading for this year and have another 4 week block of hard stuff on the track to come. Our 5 games post last seasons bye also informs that opinion.

As someone who has never placed a bet in my life, I'm more than happy to be schooled by you @binman about this. In 5 weeks when we're 12-6, hopefully you get the odds you are looking for. Then the fun begins 🔴🔵🔴🔵

The betting markets don't think the wheels have fallen off at MFC, and unlike footy "experts" in the media, they are actually held accountable for their prognostications.

The big unknown is what's going on behind the scenes with Daw. When he has played VFL he has been good and I would be confident enough for him to come in. It is after all why we drafted him. Problem is he keeps missing VFL games without much explaination from the club so it's anyones guess as to his current fitness, health etc. If Daw is ok:- IN - Daw, Weeds, May OUT - Gawn (inj), M. Brown (omit), Turner (inj) If Daw is not ok, just Weeds and May in for the two injured players. As much as M. Brown seems to have struggled, I'm mindful how long other players took to get up to speed to AFL level when it's been so long out of the level, so it would be fingers crossed he can show improvement. Bedford back as medi-sub. Chandler looked very lost when he came in last week, which was a huge surprise because I hadn't seen that from him before.

I did some reseaarch this afternoon about previous premiers. Apart from Hawthorn in 2015, and ignoring 2020 which was so impacted by COVID, all other sides since 2014 have perfromed worse in the middle of the season compared to the rest. Melbourne 2021 had the biggest drop off, Richmond 2017 close behind. I was surprised that Melbourne last year was the most dominate season in that time. It's more than possible to win premierships while also losing 6 or 7 games during the home and away season.

Daw and Weeds to come in to share the ruck with LJ (Gawn and M. Brown out). The timing of this injury (and TMac’s ) is better than it happening in round 19 or 20.

Why do you feel it was very important? We all love to beat the magpies but that doesn’t necessarily make it important does it? Yes, we’re not playing at the level we saw late last year but even with the loss we are effectively equal first with 9 rounds to go. Well positioned with plenty of time to get things right (whatever your individual take on what is currently not right).

Nailed it

I think you are missing the point that my comment had nothing to do with Caro saying it was Melbourne supporters that booed Pendles (which is obviously a mistake as he got booed on an Anzac Day game). I was responding to Pates more general comment that Melbourne supporters wouldn’t boo a player for being named BOG.

I think you might have rose coloured glasses on. Perhaps a generation or two ago it might have been different, but nowadays all clubs have all sorts of supporters. Varying degrees perhaps, but I think in the same situation (euphoria after a big win, disappointment the award didn’t go to our own player), there would have been audible boos also.

I prefer the good old "effort" reason. If only the players just tried harder it will all work out.