Vipercrunch

1 hour ago, binman said:

Id don't think that is true actually, at least if I understand the football Australia page linked above properly, which suggests you can tweak it week to week.

After the Port win last year (which came after a six day break), in an on ground post game interview, basically said that's what they had done - ie block of hard training in the preceding weeks and then a deliberate freshen up for the Port game.

We then went back intp a hard training block, as evidenced by our next 2-3 games.

Though I guess that scenario doesn't contradict your idea of  four week block and then recovery (that Port game would have been at about the 4 week mark of their initial heavy training block.

 

I think any deviation away from the 4 week cycle shown so perfectly in the graph posted by @BW511would be a compromise to the overall outcome.  That doesn't mean any deviation could be perfectly justified as there is always so much going in within clubs.

14 minutes ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

Jesus. Did you see that injury to Powell ? That's sickening!!!

Poor bloke.

Very nasty and not very pleasant viewing.  He's a good kid too 😞

38 minutes ago, Gunna’s said:

Also, how does our timing compare to last year? We played an extra 3 games last year taking our season to the end of September (and wasn’t it great!!!). But does the reduced preseason (and extra celebratory beers) change when the loading occurs in this season?  Will we come out all guns blazing against Brisbane or are there a few more weeks of loading on the track (as some have alluded to)? Will we look to load again nearer the end of the season?

 

I think the shorter preseason would have meant we worked a little harder on the track over the early H&A season period compared to 2021, but I think the main two cycles we want to get in will be the same.  One 4 or 5 week cycle before the bye, use the CBA agreed 4 days off over the bye as a rest/recovery period before another 4 or 5 weeks after.  This will leave us with the final 4 or 5 rounds to iron out gameplan, form and personell issues and training will become all about maintiaing the fitness levels rather than improving fitness.

What this means for how we perfrom against Brisbane is anyones guess though?  We won our game after last seasons bye against Essendon, but played quite poorly.  This year the bye is extra short though, so we won't be getting in a full week of heavy training before we play (maybe 2 sessions), so could come out quite fresh.  The other unknown is what Brisbane are doin.  They will be desperate to avoid going out in straight sets again, so might be loading to the extreme.  It could be a very error riddled game.  

15 minutes ago, Swooper1987 said:

I love your work on this topic Binman.  It's very instructive.  I do wonder about at what point those making these decisions start to feel nervous about top 4 - or does it even matter.  I recall first hearing about this in the late 90's when Neil Craig was in charge of fitness at the Adelaide Crows.  They made finals in both 97 and 98 with 13-9 records and won both Grand Finals absolutely running away. Different finals systems back then but they were only just above average H&A teams who were absolutely primed for finals.  If we finish outside of the top 4 and end up having to travel a bit I wonder what the cost-benefit analysis of this will show?  I guess only time will tell.  What I am certain of is if we don't load then we won't be winning the flag.

I suspect our decision makers think the risk of missing the top 4 is worth the reward of being cherry ripe.  Scott suggested in his press conference last night that Geelong are hapy to miss the finals completely!!  I would be more than happy to miss top 4 if we get there as fit as we were last year.

ABC Grandstand are going to address the comments of Scott shortly. 

https://www.afl.com.au/video/783218/full-post-match-r14-cats?videoId=783218&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1655549142001

Scott talks a lot about loading a lot in the first half of the press conference.  It actually seemed he wants it on the agenda.

If you can't stomach listening to too much, have a listen to 2.50-3:10, 4.20-5.30, 9.10-9.35 (even saying it comes with no guarantees!!!).

39 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

And more importantly creates meaningful discussion in a media landscape that chooses not to acknowledge for reasons most probably  around gambling.  

 

That’s a key reason for the lack of discussion about it. Betting firms run the footy media and have a vested interest in punters being in the dark about this. They want bets placed with the heart of supporters, not their well informed brains. 

“Scott’s gave context to the performance post-match when he said the team had ramped up its mid-season program significantly as part of a bigger plan to peak during September.

"It's what we do during the middle period of the year. We double down, even more than we might have done in previous years," Scott said.

"We might cost ourselves a little short-term, but we set up our program to be at our best when it counts.

"If we finish ninth because we try to prime ourselves to be at our best later in the year, then we'll live with that.

"We haven't been able to execute that over the last few years anyway. That's a reason to do it better."

The section I’ve got in bold is why I think Melbourne is not done with the loading for this year and have another 4 week block of hard stuff on the track to come. Our 5 games post last seasons bye also informs that opinion. 

2 hours ago, binman said:

That's the correct conclusion, but a slighty wrong premise. 

The bookies frame the initial market. And that is very much based on their assessment of the 'true odds' of a certain event occurring, in this case the dees winning the flag.

The better they are at this assessment the more money they make.

That is because the art of punting is finding value - which means making your own assessment of the true odds and backing 'overs' (ie over the true odds). Successful punters are good at this assessment (and disciplined enough not to accept 'unders' or search for a bet for a bets sake) and look to take advantage of any overs. So bookies who get that initial price wrong lose money.

In this scenario, when the bookies opened the 2022 GF market last year, their assessment of the true odds of the dees winning the flag was something like $3.20 (which was the price the dees opened).  

From that point the 'market' determines the odds the bookies offer. The market is punters betting.

So, early doors, we start winning, look like the best tam in the AFL, and the punters come for us and slam the $3.60. The bookies then respond by trimming the odds of the dees (and 'turning out' the odds of other contenders) to limit the hit to their bottom line if the dees do win the flag and to balance their overall exposure.

And we start losing and our price drifts and other contenders tighten.  

So in fact your conclusion caries even more weight. A punter backing the dees is putting their own hard earned money on  us - it is not some unaccountable prognostication.

The bigger the pool of money, the more people are backing up their assessment of who will win the flag.

And the bigger the pool the more it is dominated by professional punters who make a living out of punting, so are clear eyed and unemotional about their betting choices. 

For some bet types the pool is so small the price offered for a particular bet isn't a good indication of the true odds. But in big pools the price is an excellent indication of the true odds.

There is likely to be something in the order of $1.5 million dollars in the Sportsbet GF pool, so you can be pretty confident $3.60 is pretty close to the true odds of us winning a flag.

I'm amazed it hasn't drifted further after our loss to the pies and the news about gawn being out for 5 weeks.

What that indicates is that the pros (who are the ones that have the most influence on the price) have not backed any of the other contenders to any great degree and the market still has us as clear favorites to win the flag.  

 

As someone who has never placed a bet in my life, I'm more than happy to be schooled by you @binman about this.  In 5 weeks when we're 12-6, hopefully you get the odds you are looking for.  Then the fun begins 🔴🔵🔴🔵

The betting markets don't think the wheels have fallen off at MFC, and unlike footy "experts" in the media, they are actually held accountable for their prognostications.  

The big unknown is what's going on behind the scenes with Daw.  When he has played VFL he has been good and I would be confident enough for him to come in.  It is after all why we drafted him.  Problem is he keeps missing VFL games without much explaination from the club so it's anyones guess as to his current fitness, health etc.

If Daw is ok:-

IN - Daw, Weeds, May

OUT - Gawn (inj), M. Brown (omit), Turner (inj)

If Daw is not ok, just Weeds and May in for the two injured players.  As much as M. Brown seems to have struggled, I'm mindful how long other players took to get up to speed to AFL level when it's been so long out of the level, so it would be fingers crossed he can show improvement.

Bedford back as medi-sub.  Chandler looked very lost when he came in last week, which was a huge surprise because I hadn't seen that from him before.

I did some reseaarch this afternoon about previous premiers.  Apart from Hawthorn in 2015, and ignoring 2020 which was so impacted by COVID, all other sides since 2014 have perfromed worse in the middle of the season compared to the rest.  Melbourne 2021 had the biggest drop off, Richmond 2017 close behind.

I was surprised that Melbourne last year was the most dominate season in that time.  It's more than possible to win premierships while also losing 6 or 7 games during the home and away season.

Daw and Weeds to come in to share the ruck with LJ (Gawn and M. Brown out). The timing of this injury (and TMac’s ) is better than it happening in round 19 or 20.

2 hours ago, Kent said:

Coud have been the same last Monday It was a very important  game for us and we failed

Why do you feel it was very important?  We all love to beat the magpies but that doesn’t necessarily make it important does it?

Yes, we’re not playing at the level we saw late last year but even with the loss we are effectively equal first with 9 rounds to go. Well positioned with plenty of time to get things right (whatever your individual take on what is currently not right).

9 minutes ago, 1964_2 said:

I think the “loading” crew have acknowledged that it is one key factor amongst injuries, illness etc. 

The thing that the “loading” crew side of the fence has disputed, is that the players are on mass suddenly not fit, forgotten the game plan, can’t run out 2nd half’s anymore etc. 

In terms of oppo tactics, that becomes much easier when playing a team affected by the above. Ie Those oppo tactics won’t work, when we are back up and running again. 

Nailed it

13 minutes ago, DeeZone said:

I think that you are missing the point VC it was an Essendon / Collingwood game where the Booing came from, Caro was wrong but she still got in a cheap shot at us again an admission that she was wrong may help.!!

I think you are missing the point that my comment had nothing to do with Caro saying it was Melbourne supporters that booed Pendles (which is obviously a mistake as he got booed on an Anzac Day game). I was responding to Pates more general comment that Melbourne supporters wouldn’t boo a player for being named BOG. 

1 hour ago, Pates said:

Maybe I’ve got rose tinted glasses but I can’t see the Melbourne fans booing a player for being named BOG. Oliver was an absolute freak on Monday, similar to Max the other week he alone almost dragged us over. 

Pies fans really are a special breed of filth. 

I think you might have rose coloured glasses on. Perhaps a generation or two ago it might have been different, but nowadays all clubs have all sorts of supporters. Varying degrees perhaps, but I think in the same situation (euphoria after a big win, disappointment  the award didn’t go to our own player), there would have been audible boos also. 
 

55 minutes ago, binman said:

 

And perhaps put our remarkable form turn around to magic fairy dust and dumb luck. 

 

I prefer the good old "effort" reason.  If only the players just tried harder it will all work out.

25 minutes ago, picket fence said:

So So, why wouldn't The current fitness guy Selwyn just replicate EXACTLY the same program as last year?

And if he is .... What's gone wrong? 

If he is not... serious questions need to be asked!

You don't see the similarities to this time last year?  Perhaps you should go and watch last years QB game to remind you.

3 minutes ago, layzie said:

I'd be pretty keen to hear how you managed to measure the level of disappointment between the two extremely similar losses margin wise and performance wise. 

By carry through I mean get results in games that could have gone either way or statement games eg. Essendon, Sydney, Port etc. We didn't go 4W-1D-4L either, we went 1L-2W-1L-1W-1L-1W-1D-1L. Much more consistent and less falling off of a cliff performance wise and the point I'm making is maybe the damage was limited due to having less injuries. Would you not agree we are missing key personnel at the moment? 

Collingwood are a much better team this year than last, and this year we were missing May, TMac and had others that were banged up or returning from injury.  So imo, last year was more dissappointing.

Our cumlative outcome from those rounds was 4W-1D-4L, so we were a 50:50 team that put in some very poor performances.  Injuries have had an impact but in no way explains the lack of run we have had by fit players, run which is key to executong our gameplan.  We had a shorter preseason this time round, which is why I am even more certain that we are exploiting our 10-0 start to the season to get as fit as possible now for the run home to the finals.  I fully expect to be clearly struggling with fatigue for 4 or 5 games after the bye also.

I also think "statement" games were far more important last year to get the players to believe in the game plan, and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest that we primed the team for the mid season games against the Bulldogs and Brisbane.  It is far less important this year with the belief that is there after winning the premiership last year, meaning we were ok to risk losing games against other contenders with the bigger prize in mind.

39 minutes ago, layzie said:

There's really no way I can answer this going purely off optics. The easy answer would be to say no but then you've got the small issue of loading to deal with. 

I'm sure training regimens are similar to last season, I mean why would you change a winning formula? Maybe we were able to carry through this period last year because the system and structure with most of our personnel got us there? This time round, every key player out has a multiplier affect possibly?

It’s a good question, I just have no idea how to answer it.
 

We were even more dissapointing on QB last year than yesterday and went 4W-1D-4L round 10-19, so by what measure did we "carry through this period last year"?

8 minutes ago, CYB said:

Why is it a big secret? if they are loading just somebody from the club come out and say it! It doesn’t have to be disrespectful to the oppos but give the fan base some explanation of the cliff dive drop in form.

 

@binman has talked about it in other threads, but it seems related to the way players and teams never make excuses, even if there are genuine and impactuful injuries or illness.  Also I reckon it's part the veil of secrecy teams like to have, hiding selection, late changes, anything that could posibly give the oppisition an advantage.

Yes, it would help ease fans anxiety, but I think this stuff will only be confirmed years after the event other than in cryptic, vague refrences.

18 minutes ago, Macca said:

Nathan Jones hinted on radio today that we could be in the loading phase

 

https://webplayer.whooshkaa.com/show/1940?theme=light&episode=1008299

Hopefully that link works to the Nathan Jones segment on Dwayne Russells (🤮) show.

Poor Dwayne wanted Jones to say something negative about Melbourne but Nathan gave him very little.  Basically says yes they would want to be playing better but it's June so no need to panic.  Definitely hinted loading off field may be happening.

27 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Clearly we are not fit.

There is a significant difference to last year. Our pressure rating was still high and we weren't being overrun by teams in the 2nd half of games 3 weeks in a row.

People thinking that is just the same similarity process like last year is kidding themselves.

Our team is more banged up injury wise compared to last year and we're leaking goals way too easily.

Opposition clubs have now done intense homework on us now compared to last. Get us through the corridor and you have us on toast.

Clubs have now ramped up their ball movement on the turnover because without May we aren't as organised quickly as we were last year.

Fitness is lacking but being found out by other clubs is another. Just because it worked last year doesn't mean it'll work this year.

The game is evolving rapidly each year and exactly what Damien Hardwick was banging on about last night on AFL 360

If you and @Fork 'em are so sure of yourself, go to the Run Home Prediction thread and make a prediction of what happens from here.

5 minutes ago, Fork 'em said:

I miss Burgo.

Why?  What is different to this time last year when he was here?

https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/3072#match-report   -   Match Report from Queens Birthday game 2021 (reminder that Collingwood were a worse side last year and we had had a better run with injuries)

"disappointing Dees side"  

"they struggled to string together any consistent fluency in attack, and appeared flat"

"looked sluggish at times throughout the game"