Vipercrunch

3 hours ago, fr_ap said:

'At least be accurate' ? I already debunked the 'we looked just as poor last year' idea in another thread pasted below. 

 

Debunked???  That’s hilarious.  You provided an opposing view which I doubt would have changed any minds.

During the middle part of last season we were virtually unscathed by injuries, scoring less, being scored against more and playing and losing to worse opposition teams than we have been playing his year.  It is only your imagination to think we were in better shape.

Note to future self.  Avoid threads with subjects in all caps. They are full of nonsense.

10 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Problem is the kids coming through have grown up doing this their whole careers now since Selwood started the rubbish in 2007. There's been plenty of them coming through, McLean and Hunter at the Dogs, Mathieson at the Lions and yes Spargo and to a lesser extent Pickett. Now Ginnivan and even Pendlebury has started at the Magpies and you're completely correct, it should've been knocked on the head 15 years ago!

100x this. We all knew it was a blight on the game and went against everything the AFL claimed to be doing to protect the head when Selwood started doing. Now kids have grown up practicing and perfecting the “art”.  Gutless by the AFL.  Unfortunately no one is surprised. 

10 minutes ago, DemonWA said:

I believe we were 10-0 because of form/confidence/trust. Injuries, infighting, and some form issues are costing us. I don't think teams that are loading would vary their approaches to such a great extent, as you seem to suggest. 

Being 10-0 and 2 games clear of everyone else gave us the opportunity to go harder than any one else.  The Cats were 6-4 so they couldn’t go as hard as us (despite Scott saying they were risking making the finals).

18 minutes ago, Boots and all said:

I'd be very interested in understanding the relationship between injuries, especially soft tissue injury and loading. Do any Demonlanders have knowledge in this area?

 

I’m not an expert so hopefully others who are better qualified also chime in.

All physical work done when fatigued has increased risk of injury, and the main side effect of loading is fatigue. So, absolutely, it is a risky proposition, but when done by professional athletes with all the sports science that brings, those risks are mitigated.  GPS records distance and pace run during games and training sessions.  Strict recovery processes would be enforced.  Massage.  Diet and hydration.  Proactive reporting of all niggles.  And I’m sure there’s other things done to mitigate the risks.

Each individual player would also being doing their unique program depending on their age and fitness profile (Trac vs Langdon vs Gawn etc etc).

We have had more injuries this year than last year, but still very few sort tissue injuries, so compared to our past years and other clubs currently, it appears we are in good hands with our current fitness and medicos.

This is all pure speculation but....

During the H&A season last year, I think we needed some wins against top sides to prove to the players and coaches that our system stacked up.  However much trust and faith there was in what we were doing, there also had to be some doubt, doubt that wins against certain oppenents would quell.  I think this could have led us to set ourselves from a training load point of view for some games at the loss of some potential longer term fitness gains we could of had.  In amongst our poor losses to lowly sides, we also had some strong wins against some very good sides.

This year, post premiership and the confidence that brings, there are no lingering doubts.  There is strong belief based on what happened last September that our best will beat anyone.  This means the team can stick more rigidly and umcompromisingly to their loading plan, believing that the footy IQ on the coaching staff combined with the primed fitness and talent of the playing group will put us in the best position to go back-to-back in September.

The risk of belief and confidence however is that it can very lead to arrogance, selfishness and complacency, which the leaders on and off the field will have to be constantly vigilant against.

Reminder, that is all pure speculation.

8 minutes ago, binman said:

1. I agree.

2. Good question. The answer depends on who you ask.

My feeling is Goody's answer to the question would be the same as Scotts answer after their eagles game - ie (paraphrasing heavily), if we miss the finals (read top 4, coz there is no universe where they are not going to make finals this year) because of the extra work we are doing now, then so be it. 

That is a pretty big shift for Scott, who has been rightly applauded for his ability to keep the Cats up there as top 4 contenders. The conventional wisdom is that if a team continues to knock on the door it will inevitable open.

But as the Cats, and more recently the lions, have discovered being a top 4 team doesn't help when you come against an opponent who grinds your team into the ground because they are much fitter and stronger when the whips are cracking.

So, for Goody, i suspect being cherry ripe on prelim day is the the absolute priority, even if that risks missing top 4.

If a club is utterly convinced loading is vital to them winning everything, then they will be prepared to miss the Top 4 and back themselves to be able to win 4 in a row.  And I agree, I think Melbourne under Goodwin and still influenced by Darren Burgess fit into that category.  
 

Personally, I agree with that stance, and think we’ll begin to see it happen more frequently in the coming years. My confidence about Melbourne this year won’t waver if we don’t make top 4 unless we have injuries to multiple key players which no amount of loading can help.

On 6/7/2022 at 2:40 PM, —coach— said:

 

- Train for a double peak which means they prepare to hit the season running and bank early wins (exactly as we seem to have done), before building load prior to and out the other side of the bye rounds (again sacrificing best performance and looking for a 60/40% win loss record) before hitting a second peak in the later half of the year. (Pre finals bye and pre Prelim bye for those top 4 who win first week allow reduction in game fatigue and increased uptake of train stimulus without negative effect (normally in the form of high intensity work like match simulation activities).

 

Going back a bit here @coach, but I’m curious how long athletes can maintain peak performance?  In other words, in an ideal world, how far out from preliminary final weekend would a team want to finish loading?  I say ideal world because every team will act according to their ladder position and what significance they place on finishing top 2, top 4 or just happy to make the finals. 
 

Last year we won the last 4 rounds but it’s hard to draw too much from those results with much confidence of what was happening. We smashed the Suns but it was the last minute change of fixture and they had dialled it in for the year.  Then we beat WCE but they finished much stronger after the lightning strikes. Then a solid win over Adelaide but they were also cooked. Then the wonderful after the siren win against Geelong. Very hard to definitively draw any conclusions about that. 

One thing some are missing is that many of us that are strong on loading being very significant right now are not doing it in hindsight, rather they have predicted well before the event that we would be in the middle of a poor stretch of form and results right now.  @binman especially was very open and clear before the season started that we would have another mid-season slump.  I predicted that we'd play poorly and only win 2 out of the 5 games post bye in a prediction thread.  It's not a case of making excuses after the fact "to help us sleep better" as several have repeatedly accused.

Also, seriously, are people really losing sleep right now about dropping some games in June/July???

They pay those as head high frees all the time.  Stiff, like when a player trips into an oncoming oppenents knee, but they stll pay them.  No one would blink an eye if it happend in the second quarter.  And, waaaaay more there than the one McCluggage got earlier when he got tackled fairly but threw his head back and the umpired guessed.

2 minutes ago, DemonWA said:

My issue is that discussion about loading (which happens) trivialises far more obvious issues with our game this year. Additionally I believe people are taking the results and using loading as a convenient way to build the narrative that our losses are all part of the grand plan. As I say, if that helps people sleep at night, all power to you. 

No doubt it has some effect, but we've lost to other top 4 contenders who would also be loading, so at what point do you just conceed the lads aren't playing the best footy and are perhaps a touch complacent? 

Neither side of the loading debate is going to concede anything until the season is over, (and even then many won’t).
 

And why do you care about what “narrative” is being created?  Do you think the opinions shared on a forum such as this affects what happens in the field?

Just now, fr_ap said:

Not a difficult concept mate.. I accept we will lose some games especially away from home against a very good team. That doesn't concern me. Especially if we lose in a close game that could have gone either way. 

What does bother me is when we lose comprehensively in every facet of the game as we did. I.e. the manner of the loss. Especially when it begins to occur over a number of weeks in semi-familiar patterns. 

I'm over the back and forth - you basically made my point for me admitting you're projecting a return to form on blind hope, past performance and trust in the FD.

I think that's nonsense but as I said, if you find comfort in it then great. 

Stop sitting on the fence. Did last nights loss concern you or not?

25 minutes ago, fr_ap said:

Thanks for taking the time to elaborate, though you really haven't said anything of substance. You're admitting your perception of where we are at is informed by

-Loading (speculation, unconfirmed)

-Trust in the FD 

If that's all it takes to convince yourself that we'll be ok then I'm glad for you. 

I think attributing losses to loading is both extremely disrespectful to the opposition (as if to say if we were fully fit, winning is a fait accompli) and extremely complacent. Especially in the face of clear statistical indicators showing where we're getting well beaten and comments from Scott post game explaining how he dismantled our gameplan. It's a lazy excuse that papers over any meaningful analysis or explanation, because fitness is obviously a common element that underpins the entire sport. 

As for trust in the FD - I have some but not enough to blindly ignore what my eyes and ears are telling me. Just as Goodwin took us to a flag he also landed us in 17th. To assume he will always get it right is pretty ridiculous. Huge recency bias too. 

I'm not bothered by the loss honestly - it's the manner of the losses that concern me and they bear very little resemblance to last year regardless of what you say. 

As I said, no reason we can't turn it around and I'll be thrilled if it happens - but in a post game thread full of good analysis and people searching for answers, chalking it up to loading and last year's profile is lazy & simplistic. 

This isn't negative at all, it's observational. Some very sensitive folks on here. 

Not bothered by the loss but the manner of the losses concern you??? Seriously try and make some sense. 

8 minutes ago, fr_ap said:

Do you? I actually asked you to elaborate but you clearly don't know how to address my detailed points and instead resorted to a personal insult.  

I feel more comfortable acknowledging the statistical differences which are inarguable. You feel comfortable clinging to the past and assuming history will repeat itself. You're not the first to do it and won't be the last. The Media are good at it too.   

My assessment of our form does not turn on my 'comfort' with failure or success - I'm just repeating widely available objective stats that tell a story for those willing to listen. Goody & Co have repeatedly spoken about not looking at the past. If they were we would never have gotten off the 2019 canvas. If they're looking at '21 & saying "its all good, this happened last year" - not only would they be statistically wrong but they'd be fools as well. 

As the one drawing parallels to last year with no real justification - you clearly feel more comfortable with blind hope. At least acknowledge it rather than dropping last year's form-line like its a relevant analysis.     

For what it's worth, I clearly hope I am wrong and you are right 

The reason I didn’t address it because it’s been addressed so well by others on these forums in the past, but to sum it up for you, our game plan relies enormously on our ability to cover the ground both defensively to create turnovers and then going forward to create scores. No other teams relies on it as much as we do. And if we are fatigued we can’t execute our game plan and become very beatable by good teams (and not so good teams.). Fatigue also creates poor decision making, poor skill execution, lack of power to break tackles, and I could go on and on. I don’t accept it’s an effort issue.  Or complacency. Or tactical.

Last year is absolutely a valid comparison because the science behind our fitness preparation hasn’t changed.  There are lots of other variables of course but the facts are in order to give ourselves the best chance to succeed in September, we have to risk our performance in June and July. If we play it too safe, teams that were willing to risk more now will steam roll us come finals.

Loading is 100% necessary but it’s also not a silver bullet. My “blind hope” as you put it comes because I trust our coaches aren’t taking anything for granted.   They now have the track record of taking care of the big picture (loading) while also identifying all the 1% issues that need addressing.  Always, (win, lose or draw), looking at ways to improve. Always respecting the competition and opposition.  They have been the constant theme of Godwin’s press conferences. My blind and naive hope is because our football department has earned my trust. 

17 minutes ago, fr_ap said:

How is this relevant? "It happened last year so it will happen again"? Extremely simplistic, naive & IMO you/most in this thread are grasping for any explanation that makes you feel better about our form. 

There are so many different variables to this time last year - the most pertinent being we have a very tough run home  & have lost most games to our key top 8 competitors, whereas last year we lost/drew to teams well below us & knew very early we stacked up well against our key competitors. We had the measure of the best teams last year and they knew it. There'll be no fear this year & any of Geelong/Freo/Collingwood/Sydney/(Carlton when they beat us) will have a very clear understanding of how to deal with Melbourne at finals time. Brisbane (presuming they don't destroy us at the Gabba) the only ones who will have some memory of what we are like at our best. 

Crucially, in all of the games you've mentioned last year, we were relatively even statistically for scoring shots & inside 50s - it was either poor kicking or umpires (in the case of the bulldogs game) that cost us. QB against the Pies was the only aberration last year in terms of being comprehensively beaten in scoring shots/all over the ground. 

Last night we were whalloped in every statistical sense: 31 scoring shots to 18, -20 inside 50s, -25 clearances, conceded 15 marks i50 most within 35m dead in front, often within 20m of unguarded space, which does not happen to us very often. We were easy to score against. We took 6 marks i50 with most of those deep in the pockets. We had no answers at all & the shape of the ground excuse only goes so far. 

Against Sydney & Collingwood this year, we lost scoring shots comprehensively and conceded a lot of marks i50. Those games we had supply - relatively even i50s - but could not defend. We had some personnel issues (May, Petty) over this time that perhaps exacerbated this, so I'm willing to look past them. Fremantle we were outplayed & beaten in the contest, but the scoreboard looked worse than it was. Pressure and speed have been a consistent theme that we've been unable to cope with. IMO, the make up of the defence with 3 offensively minded/intercepting HBs (Bowey, Salem & Brayshaw) is having a lot to do with this without necessarily providing us any drive going forward. Small/pressure forwards are finding a lot of space against us, which wasn't the case last year. One or both of Hunt/Rivers are a requirement IMV especially with Hibberd's increasingly fragility. No mind their poorer distribution - all we do is kick it to contests at centre wing anyway. 

My point is - this year we are losing in quite a few different ways. We are losing contest, we are conceding marks i50, we aren't coping with pressure/speed and last night, we lost in every other way. We are relatively predictable & there is a clear blueprint emerging of how to beat us. 

Maybe this is all par for the course for a reigning premier - after what we did at the pointy end last year, you really get the feeling we are everyone's grand final (both from opposition coaches, players and fans collectively - the sheer joy teams display when they beat us tells you a bit). 

We are still in a great position & I have faith we can get it done - but we're a long way off. Other than giving us experience to draw upon & a degree of faith, last year has nothing to do with anything. 

I'd love to hear some actual reasoned explanation as to why you think any of the games you've quoted are a valid precedent for this year. "Loading" might be it - which none of us can confirm. 

As i said, grasping at straws.

I get it. You’re a pessimistic hand wringer and feel more comfortable thinking we will fail. You do you.  I’ll do me.  We’ll find out in 2 months who had a better read on our current circumstances. 

Here's some 2021 post bye facts for those that seem to be looking at 2021 with September colourled glasses on.

Round 15 - Held off Essendon by 11 points, 57-68.                                                              https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/3108#match-report

Round 16 - Beaten by GWS by 9, 55-64.                                                                                https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/3100#match-report

Round 17 - Our best game and win for this period, a 31 point win over Port Adelaide at their home ground, 55-86.      https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/3125#match-report

Round 18 - After leading by 27 points midway through the second term, we finish with a draw with Hawthorn, 79-79.      https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/3123#match-report

Round 19 - The Bulldogs get revenge for round 11 to beat us 65-85.                          https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/3159#match-report

Our avergae score for this period was 70.6 (2021 season avergae was 85.8)

Our avergae score against this period was 68 (2021 season avergae was 65.6)

Interestingly, despite that 5 week record (6 if you include the 2021 QB loss to Collingwood 63-80), in the press conference after the Round 19 loss to WBD, when asked about our scoring, Simon Goodwin said "I'm not worried one bit", "We sit here confident", and in regards more generally to how the team was going, he said "I think we're pretty close. As a footy club we're not far away." and "We're certainly not going to jump at shadows."  

https://www.afl.com.au/news/652025/-not-worried-one-bit-goodwin-upbeat-on-dees-scoring-woes

https://www.afl.com.au/video/653832/full-post-match-demons?videoId=653832&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1627133400001

7 minutes ago, fr_ap said:

They're an awful bunch there truly. Extremely precious about their seats, how much noise you make etc - they're so used to having 95% of the crowd that it seems to personally offend them if you cheer for the other team

Last time I went there (that horrible thumping on a miserable night in 2019) I was stunned that they had the loudspeaker playing a clap and cheering track after their goals. It was a packed house and they still needed to artificially create an atmosphere. 

I think we go back to the forward balance we had for the second half of last year and start of this year and bring in another genuine talk forward. 
 

In - whoever earns it tomorrow out of Weeds, Mitch Brown or JVR

Out - Bedford (love him but still needs to work on some key things)

Frustrating game to watch and as a Geelong resident, I hate losing it, but very predictable result. We’ve still got 3 weeks of sluggish stuff to come before we begin to taper. 
 

You either believe the Brisbane game was a fluke and tonight was the true measure of our team, or you believe Brisbane was a taste of what we can do when we don’t have the loading shackles on.  I know what I believe and tonight’s  result doesn’t worry me in the slightest.

6 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

Interesting Selwood said they feel like they were running on top of the ground. Sounds like they’ve timed their loading well. Better than us, anyway…

We’re still 8 weeks away from the business end of the season so if they are peaking now they have totally stuffed their timing and should fire their fitness staff. 

There's a lot of talk in the media about our supposedly struggling forward line and ability to score, one of the latest examples is this discussion between Tim Watson and Garry Lyon (https://www.sen.com.au/news/2022/07/04/the-only-major-concern-lingering-for-melbourne-ahead-of-finals/).  And I, as much as the next MFC supoorter, would love to see us kick more goals from more traditional methods (lead and mark or contested marks by big key forwards), but I also suspected that this was just more of the media having selective memory about what we did in 2021.  The numbers speak for themselves.

Is apparent bravery a way to now get away with obvious front on contact?  Happened numerous times against Frittata on Thursday and Tarrant just then got away with one. 

I’m really hoping today is the day the sycophants in the media finally realise Richmond are well past it. 

I just watched the All The Goals package.  How poorly is that edited?  It shows the set shots, but none of whatever (mark, freekick, 50m penalty) that lead to the set shot.  And the Spargo goal?  It didn't show the Viney tackle/bullock that caused it.  Such a let down when the website does so many other things so well.