-
Posts
304 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Store
Everything posted by WheeloRatings
-
Here are our scores from stoppage per season: Season For Against Diff 2021 33.7 23.8 +10.0 2022 35.9 27.0 +8.9 2023 34.5 28.4 +6.1 2024 33.4 26.2 +7.2 You can access scores from stoppage by team here: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html?year=2024 And each match for Melbourne here: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats_team.html?ID=melb
-
Sorry, the "drop off" was in reference to the number of contests. We're having fewer contests and we're losing a smaller percentage of them.
-
Nah, the lower the percentage, the fewer 1v1 contests you have lost.
-
There has been a noticeable drop off in defensive 1v1 contests over the last five weeks. Our 1v1 loss % from round 0-10 was 29.0% and from round 11-18 it has dropped to 18.5%. Round Opposition Def. 1v1s Losses % Key Defenders (50+% time on ground) (Adam Tomlinson, Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald) 0 Sydney 10 2 20.0% Adam Tomlinson, Jake Lever, Steven May 1 Western Bulldogs 10 3 30.0% Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald 2 Hawthorn 10 1 10.0% Jake Lever, Tom McDonald 3 Port Adelaide 12 7 58.3% Jake Lever, Tom McDonald 4 Adelaide 14 4 28.6% Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald 5 Brisbane 10 3 30.0% Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald 7 Richmond 7 2 28.6% Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald 8 Geelong 12 3 25.0% Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald 9 Carlton 12 4 33.3% Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald 10 West Coast 10 2 20.0% Steven May, Tom McDonald 11 St Kilda 13 1 7.7% Adam Tomlinson, Steven May, Tom McDonald 12 Fremantle 15 2 13.3% Adam Tomlinson, Steven May, Tom McDonald 13 Collingwood 8 1 12.5% Steven May, Tom McDonald 15 North Melbourne 7 3 42.9% Adam Tomlinson, Steven May, Tom McDonald 16 Brisbane 7 1 14.3% Adam Tomlinson, Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald 17 West Coast 10 2 20.0% Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald 18 Essendon 5 2 40.0% Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald
-
Are contested possessions a 'key indicator of success'?
WheeloRatings replied to WheeloRatings's topic in Melbourne Demons
It doesn't appear to be as significant (noting that the HBG differential is generally quite a bit lower than over CP diff) Win HBG by 1-3: 54% win Win HBG by 4-6: 58% win Win HBG by 7-9: 67% win Win HBG by 10+: 71% win -
Are contested possessions a 'key indicator of success'?
WheeloRatings replied to WheeloRatings's topic in Melbourne Demons
I don't know exactly how those figures were calculated, but my calculations are as follows: Win CP by 1-6: 54% win Win CP by 7-13: 64% win Win CP by 14-21: 76% win Win CP by 22+: 87% win My understanding is that the definition has not changed. -
I had the privilege of collaborating (in a small way) with Cody Atkinson on the following article regarding contested possessions. These guys regularly put out fantastic and insightful AFL articles for the ABC and are well worth a read. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-19/afl-2024-premiership-importance-of-contested-possessions/104113954 The contested possession has increasingly gained prominence in recent years, with players, coaches, commentators and fans offering different opinions on its role in the AFL. Star Sydney Swans midfielder Errol Gulden has described contested possessions as "a key indicator for success", but not everyone in the AFL is enamoured by the concept. "Contested ball is just a fancy term for everyone in the media," Alastair Clarkson said in 2016. "We don't give a toss about that … we've won five contested-ball contests in about two years, so we've still won lots of games of footy." So how important are contested possessions? And what even is a contested possession?
-
The Champion Data player ratings can be represented as an average per match over a given period (e.g. a season) which is how I present them on the website (and is what @Fat Tony has used): https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html?year=2024 In addition, these ratings can be presented as a rolling two-year (max 40 games) total, as you mentioned, and this is how they are presented on the AFL Stats Leaders page: https://www.afl.com.au/stats/leaders?category=Key+Stats&seasonId=62&roundId=-1&roundNumber=0&sortColumn=ratingPoints&sortDirection=descending&positions=All&teams=All&benchmarking=false&dataType=averages&playerOneId=null&playerTwoId=null I have previously calculated the ratings in the same way, but they're not on my website:
-
-
Melbourne v Essendon (Round 18, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20241805 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 67.5 71.5 -4.0 Kicking Efficiency 60.9 64.8 -3.9 Metres Gained 6008 5555 +453 Inside 50s 49 56 -7 Shots At Goal 21 22 -1 Shots Per Inside 50 42.9 39.3 +3.6 Contested Possessions 142 135 +7 Ground Ball Gets 109 94 +15 Intercepts 87 89 -2 Intercept Marks 19 17 +2 Centre Clearances 14 11 +3 Stoppage Clearances 30 21 +9 Contested Marks 4 7 -3 Marks Inside 50 8 13 -5 Hitouts 27 43 -16 Hitouts To Advantage 9 13 -4 Tackles 56 70 -14 Tackles Inside 50 10 7 +3 Def One On One Loss % 40.0 18.8 +21.2 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Melbourne's Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 4 6 -2 Loose Ball Get 14 6 +8 Gather From Hitout 1 0 +1 Contested Knock On 1 2 -1 Free For 1 1 0 Total 21 15 +6 Melbourne's Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 5 3 +2 Loose Ball Get 10 17 -7 Contested Mark 1 5 -4 Ruck Hard Ball Get 0 2 -2 Gather From Hitout 1 0 +1 Contested Knock On 2 0 +2 Free For 2 2 0 Total 21 29 -8 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 15 17 -2 Loose Ball Get 58 62 -4 Contested Mark 4 7 -3 Contested Knock On 3 4 -1 Free For 12 9 +3 Total 92 99 -7 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 10 4 +6 Loose Ball Get 26 11 +15 Ruck Hard Ball Get 1 4 -3 Gather From Hitout 8 10 -2 Contested Knock On 4 2 +2 Free For 1 5 -4 Total 50 36 +14 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets. 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions. Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 71.3 84 2 40% +17 +21.2 Essendon 75.5 67 0 60% +4.2 Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 21 13.4.82 61.9% 69.3 +12.7 3.30 +0.61 Essendon 22 10.7.67 45.5% 75.5 −8.5 3.43 −0.39 General Play Melbourne 12 6.3.39 50.0% 36.6 +2.4 3.05 +0.20 Essendon 8 2.3.15 25.0% 22.7 −7.7 2.84 −0.97 Set Position Melbourne 9 7.1.43 77.8% 32.7 +10.3 3.63 +1.15 Essendon 14 8.4.52 57.1% 52.8 −0.8 3.77 −0.06 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Agn Diff 1 175 177 -2 2 199 201 -2 3 164 207 -43 4 168 167 +1 Match 176 190 -14 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Trent Rivers 19 52 28.3 Andy Moniz-Wakefield 19 48 37.0 Alex Neal-Bullen 22 47 53.1 Koltyn Tholstrup 18 43 38.8 Harrison Petty 20 43 28.9 Jack Viney 19 42 58.5 Clayton Oliver 19 42 44.1 Kade Chandler 22 40 45.1 Ed Langdon 19 37 31.2 Tom Sparrow 20 36 43.4 Kysaiah Pickett 17 33 40.4 Caleb Windsor 15 27 32.9 Tom McDonald 11 24 21.0 Jacob van Rooyen 11 24 17.3 Daniel Turner 9 22 14.3 Christian Salem 10 21 26.6 Steven May 9 20 9.9 Bayley Fritsch 10 19 15.6 Jake Melksham 7 17 11.0 Jake Lever 8 14 14.7 Jake Bowey 6 11 16.0 Judd McVee 5 11 14.7 Taj Woewodin 1 1 13.2 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 47% 53% 2 60% 40% 3 51% 49% 4 41% 59% Match 51% 49% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 1.0.6 0.0.0 +6 Centre Bounce 1.1.7 1.0.6 +1 Stoppage (Other) 3.3.21 1.2.8 +13 Turnover 8.2.50 8.5.53 -3 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 6 2.6 0 2.4 Centre Bounce 7 10.2 6 7.2 Stoppage (Other) 21 23.1 8 18.9 Turnover 50 43.5 53 46.8 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Essendon. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 7 10.2 6 7.2 Kick-in D50 6 2.6 0 2.4 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 2.4 0 1.5 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 2.1 0 1.9 Stoppage (Other) Wing 18 13.0 7 9.1 Stoppage (Other) F50 3 5.6 1 6.5 Turnover D50 6 8.6 0 7.2 Turnover Centre 13 7.5 0 7.3 Turnover Wing 19 21.0 52 25.8 Turnover F50 12 6.4 1 6.5 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 12 13.6 0 11.1 Centre 20 19.8 6 16.4 Wing 37 34.0 59 34.9 F50 15 12.1 2 12.9 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 12 13.6 0 11.1 Defensive midfield 12 18.6 32 18.6 Centre bounce 7 10.2 6 7.2 Attacking midfield 38 24.9 27 25.5 Forward 50 15 12.1 2 12.9 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Essendon. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 24 32.3 32 29.7 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Essendon. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Trent Rivers 21 78% 20.6% 3.0% Clayton Oliver 18 67% 71.5% 81.4% Kysaiah Pickett 17 63% 37.8% 11.2% Jack Viney 16 59% 67.4% 72.1% Jacob van Rooyen 15 56% 16.9% 7.6% Harrison Petty 12 44% 6.9% 0.7% Alex Neal-Bullen 9 33% 14.9% 2.1% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 36.4% 44.9% Christian Salem 0 0% 14.8% 0.0% Koltyn Tholstrup 0 0% 1.5% Daniel Turner 0 0% 0.4% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Max Gawn 84.3% 64.9% Christian Petracca 55.8% 61.1% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Bailey Laurie 4.4% 0.0% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Lachie Hunter 0.0% 0.2% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Jacob van Rooyen 48 49% 16.8% 13.1% Harrison Petty 44 45% 7.9% 2.0% Daniel Turner 6 6% 2.8% 0.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Max Gawn 81.4% 57.5% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.2% 2.3% Christian Petracca 0.0% 0.4% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Jacob van Rooyen 48 17 6 26.8% 31.1% Harrison Petty 44 10 3 31.2% 25.0% Daniel Turner 6 0 0 50.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Ben Brown 100.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Max Gawn 26.9% 30.1% Christian Petracca 100.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Sam Draper 79 33 12 Peter Wright 11 7 1 Nik Cox 8 3 0
-
@sue @titan_uranus in response to a query on the pregame thread, the last team in the top 4 with a percentage below 100 this late in the season was Geelong after round 18, 2000. https://afltables.com/afl/seas/2000.html#18 (Melbourne finished 1989 in 4th with a percentage of 96.5)
-
The player model uses the team ratings as an input. The idea was to improve the standard model by incorporating player information, and the team ratings was a significant variable in the player model. That is, it couldn't be replaced by the player information alone.
-
I use two models for predicting results - one based purely on the teams and the other which takes into account the players playing in the match (and uses the players' predicted ratings you're asking about). Here are the overall results between 2013 and now (the period that the player model is available): Mean absolute margin error: Standard model: 27.0 points Player model: 26.3 points (The average match margin was 32.8 points) % of tips correct Standard model: 69.5% Player model: 70.4% Squiggle aggregates a range of AFL models, including "Punters" which is an aggregate of odds from a number of betting agencies. My model's average margin error the last few seasons (since my model has been on Squiggle) has been ranked quite high on the Squiggle leaderboard and quite close to the punters' performance. --- You are correct, the player ratings on my site are the Champion Data player ratings. The predicted ratings are a weighted average of a player's rating in past matches, weighted towards more recent matches and more recent seasons. It is limited to a maximum of a player's last 75 matches and 4 seasons, but more recent matches are weighted much higher. I also take into account time on ground in past matches to ensure that a player who was sub or injured isn't punished unfairly for their lower rating in that match. The predicted rating is reduced for the named sub given they'll most likely play less than half the match. For example, Woewodin's predicted rating was 6.2 last week but 2.8 this week. --- Hopefully the above helps!
-
Thanks binman. The team ratings (from here) are intended to measure how many points each team is above/below average at any point in time. The ratings update each week based on whether the team performs¹ above or below expectation². Expected performance in a given match is based on the two teams' ratings and a venue advantage. Actual performance in a given match is based on a weighted average of the team's actual score and the score they would have kicked if they kicked at the AFL average, to lessen the effect of really accurate or inaccurate kicking. I don't use expected scores in the model as I only have this data since 2021 (my team ratings are calculated for every round since 1897), but it is kind of a rough proxy for expected scores. For example, a team's attacking rating will go up if their adjusted score is higher than expected, and their opponent's defensive rating will go down by the same amount. While it may throw up some strange results (Sydney's rating actually went up yesterday despite losing to St Kilda, which was because Sydney scored 27 times to 19), it has been optimised for predicting match results. The model is somewhat based on the Matter Of Stats MoSHBODS model described here if you want some light reading (although some of the specifics in this model do differ from mine): https://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-stats-journal/2017/1/5/team-rating-revisited-a-rival-for-mossbods
-
You can install the website as a "progressive web app" from the web browser. Depending on the browser, there may be an "Add to Home screen", "Install this site as an app", or similar option in the menu. It works in Edge and Chrome (on both Android and Windows), but I haven't tested it on an iPhone.
-
-
Melbourne v West Coast (Round 17, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20241706 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 73.6 72.9 +0.7 Kicking Efficiency 73.8 68.0 +5.8 Metres Gained 6149 5037 +1112 Inside 50s 49 49 +0 Shots At Goal 28 20 +8 Shots Per Inside 50 57.1 40.8 +16.3 Contested Possessions 129 104 +25 Ground Ball Gets 88 68 +20 Intercepts 64 54 +10 Intercept Marks 15 20 -5 Centre Clearances 8 18 -10 Stoppage Clearances 22 17 +5 Contested Marks 14 10 +4 Marks Inside 50 21 15 +6 Hitouts 28 34 -6 Hitouts To Advantage 10 12 -2 Tackles 56 54 +2 Tackles Inside 50 6 19 -13 Def One On One Loss % 20.0 33.3 -13.3 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Melbourne's Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 6 4 +2 Loose Ball Get 21 9 +12 Contested Mark 1 3 -2 Ruck Hard Ball Get 0 1 -1 Gather From Hitout 4 2 +2 Free For 1 1 0 Total 33 20 +13 Melbourne's Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 4 0 +4 Loose Ball Get 12 6 +6 Contested Mark 4 1 +3 Gather From Hitout 0 1 -1 Contested Knock On 0 1 -1 Free For 2 1 +1 Total 22 10 +12 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 11 13 -2 Loose Ball Get 52 29 +23 Contested Mark 14 10 +4 Contested Knock On 3 3 0 Free For 7 5 +2 Total 87 60 +27 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 3 5 -2 Loose Ball Get 22 21 +1 Ruck Hard Ball Get 5 2 +3 Gather From Hitout 9 11 -2 Contested Knock On 1 3 -2 Free For 2 2 0 Total 42 44 -2 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets. 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions. Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 102.1 112 1 99% +35.3 +54 +18.7 West Coast 66.9 58 2 1% Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 28 17.9.111 60.7% 101.1 +9.9 3.61 +0.35 West Coast 20 8.8.56 40.0% 64.9 −8.9 3.24 −0.44 General Play Melbourne 7 6.0.36 85.7% 22.4 +13.6 3.21 +1.94 West Coast 4 2.1.13 50.0% 15.5 −2.5 3.88 −0.63 Set Position Melbourne 21 11.9.75 52.4% 78.7 −3.7 3.75 −0.18 West Coast 16 6.7.43 37.5% 49.3 −6.3 3.08 −0.40 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Agn Diff 1 200 177 +23 2 179 179 0 3 186 162 +24 4 199 154 +45 Match 191 168 +23 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Trent Rivers 23 55 26.8 Jack Viney 19 45 59.6 Alex Neal-Bullen 19 44 53.5 Caleb Windsor 17 39 33.3 Andy Moniz-Wakefield 13 35 31.5 Ed Langdon 18 33 30.8 Kade Chandler 13 30 45.4 Koltyn Tholstrup 13 30 37.8 Tom Sparrow 15 28 43.8 Christian Salem 10 28 27.1 Jake Bowey 10 25 16.6 Clayton Oliver 10 23 44.2 Jacob van Rooyen 10 23 16.8 Daniel Turner 9 21 13.4 Kysaiah Pickett 11 20 40.9 Tom McDonald 5 14 20.8 Judd McVee 6 13 14.9 Steven May 5 13 9.3 Bayley Fritsch 6 12 15.4 Max Gawn 4 11 23.1 Taj Woewodin 4 11 14.2 Jake Lever 2 5 14.8 Jake Melksham 3 5 5.0 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 53% 47% 2 52% 48% 3 43% 57% 4 43% 57% Match 49% 51% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.1.1 0.0.0 +1 Centre Bounce 0.1.1 3.2.20 -19 Stoppage (Other) 5.1.31 2.3.15 +16 Turnover 12.7.79 3.5.23 +56 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 1 2.4 0 2.5 Centre Bounce 1 10.4 20 7.3 Stoppage (Other) 31 23.2 15 19.6 Turnover 79 43.1 23 46.4 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 1 10.4 20 7.3 Kick-in D50 1 2.4 0 2.5 Stoppage (Other) D50 12 2.6 0 1.6 Stoppage (Other) Centre 7 2.2 0 2.0 Stoppage (Other) Wing 12 12.7 9 9.2 Stoppage (Other) F50 0 5.8 6 6.8 Turnover D50 19 8.8 0 7.7 Turnover Centre 8 7.1 0 7.8 Turnover Wing 46 21.1 23 24.2 Turnover F50 6 6.1 0 6.8 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 32 13.8 0 11.8 Centre 16 19.8 20 17.1 Wing 58 33.8 32 33.4 F50 6 11.9 6 13.6 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 32 13.8 0 11.8 Defensive midfield 26 19.1 10 17.8 Centre bounce 1 10.4 20 7.3 Attacking midfield 47 24.1 22 25.4 Forward 50 6 11.9 6 13.6 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 58 32.8 10 29.6 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Trent Rivers 24 83% 16.9% 3.0% Clayton Oliver 23 79% 71.8% 81.4% Max Gawn 21 72% 84.3% 64.9% Jack Viney 19 66% 68.0% 72.1% Tom Sparrow 14 48% 38.8% 44.9% Kysaiah Pickett 7 24% 36.0% 11.2% Jacob van Rooyen 7 24% 13.9% 7.6% Daniel Turner 1 3% 0.5% 0.0% Christian Salem 0 0% 16.0% 0.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 13.7% 2.1% Koltyn Tholstrup 0 0% 1.9% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Christian Petracca 55.8% 61.1% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Bailey Laurie 4.4% 0.0% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Harrison Petty 3.9% 0.7% Lachie Hunter 0.0% 0.2% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 47 60% 81.4% 57.5% Daniel Turner 16 21% 2.3% 0.0% Jacob van Rooyen 15 19% 14.3% 13.1% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Harrison Petty 4.8% 2.0% Ben Brown 0.2% 2.3% Christian Petracca 0.0% 0.4% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 47 21 8 26.9% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 15 5 1 24.1% 31.1% Daniel Turner 16 2 1 50.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Ben Brown 100.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Harrison Petty 31.8% 25.0% Christian Petracca 100.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Bailey J. Williams 61 28 10 Jack Darling 12 5 2 Jack Williams 5 1 0
-
-
Melbourne v Brisbane (Round 16, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20241602 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 64.6 67.9 -3.3 Kicking Efficiency 55.3 63.0 -7.7 Metres Gained 6270 6276 -6 Inside 50s 51 53 -2 Shots At Goal 29 30 -1 Shots Per Inside 50 56.9 56.6 +0.3 Contested Possessions 154 130 +24 Ground Ball Gets 107 96 +11 Intercepts 59 72 -13 Intercept Marks 5 17 -12 Centre Clearances 14 7 +7 Stoppage Clearances 26 27 -1 Contested Marks 14 13 +1 Marks Inside 50 10 14 -4 Hitouts 48 34 +14 Hitouts To Advantage 11 4 +7 Tackles 71 53 +18 Tackles Inside 50 14 7 +7 Def One On One Loss % 14.3 27.8 -13.5 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Melbourne's Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 8 2 +6 Loose Ball Get 23 18 +5 Contested Mark 1 2 -1 Ruck Hard Ball Get 1 0 +1 Contested Knock On 2 2 0 Free For 3 1 +2 Total 38 25 +13 Melbourne's Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 4 6 -2 Loose Ball Get 11 13 -2 Contested Mark 2 1 +1 Free For 1 2 -1 Total 18 22 -4 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 17 9 +8 Loose Ball Get 53 48 +5 Contested Mark 14 13 +1 Contested Knock On 7 3 +4 Free For 9 10 -1 Total 100 83 +17 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 15 15 0 Loose Ball Get 22 24 -2 Ruck Hard Ball Get 5 2 +3 Gather From Hitout 10 2 +8 Contested Knock On 2 1 +1 Free For 0 3 -3 Total 54 47 +7 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets. 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions. Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 80.0 81 0 27% +5.8 Brisbane 90.8 86 6 73% +10.8 +5 Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 29 11.15.81 37.9% 80.0 +1.0 2.76 +0.03 Brisbane 30 11.14.80 36.7% 84.8 −4.8 2.83 −0.16 General Play Melbourne 15 4.9.33 26.7% 35.5 −2.5 2.36 −0.16 Brisbane 16 5.9.39 31.2% 41.2 −2.2 2.58 −0.14 Set Position Melbourne 14 7.6.48 50.0% 44.6 +3.4 3.18 +0.24 Brisbane 14 6.5.41 42.9% 43.6 −2.6 3.12 −0.19 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Agn Diff 1 148 186 -38 2 199 204 -5 3 180 189 -9 4 161 181 -20 Match 172 190 -18 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Jack Viney 29 68 60.5 Alex Neal-Bullen 25 50 54.1 Clayton Oliver 21 50 45.6 Kysaiah Pickett 20 49 42.5 Koltyn Tholstrup 23 41 40.3 Kade Chandler 15 36 46.5 Harrison Petty 13 31 27.8 Tom Sparrow 14 29 44.9 Andy Moniz-Wakefield 13 28 28.0 Caleb Windsor 12 25 32.9 Trent Rivers 14 25 24.9 Ed Langdon 12 24 30.6 Tom McDonald 9 22 21.3 Judd McVee 12 20 15.1 Jacob van Rooyen 8 17 16.3 Taj Woewodin 7 17 14.5 Adam Tomlinson 8 16 21.8 Bayley Fritsch 7 16 15.7 Jake Lever 10 15 15.6 Kynan Brown 7 14 10.5 Max Gawn 6 12 23.9 Daniel Turner 5 10 12.3 Steven May 3 6 9.0 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 48% 52% 2 56% 44% 3 53% 47% 4 39% 61% Match 48% 52% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.0.0 3.0.18 -18 Centre Bounce 2.3.15 0.1.1 +14 Stoppage (Other) 4.3.27 2.8.20 +7 Turnover 5.9.39 6.11.47 -8 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 0 2.5 18 2.7 Centre Bounce 15 11.1 1 6.5 Stoppage (Other) 27 22.7 20 19.9 Turnover 39 40.7 47 48.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Brisbane. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 15 11.1 1 6.5 Kick-in D50 0 2.5 18 2.7 Stoppage (Other) D50 1 1.9 1 1.7 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 1.9 0 2.1 Stoppage (Other) Wing 20 12.7 15 9.2 Stoppage (Other) F50 6 6.2 4 6.9 Turnover D50 15 8.1 8 8.2 Turnover Centre 7 7.1 2 8.3 Turnover Wing 14 19.5 23 24.3 Turnover F50 3 6.1 14 7.3 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 16 12.5 27 12.6 Centre 22 20.0 3 16.9 Wing 34 32.2 38 33.5 F50 9 12.3 18 14.1 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 16 12.5 27 12.6 Defensive midfield 21 18.6 24 18.3 Centre bounce 15 11.1 1 6.5 Attacking midfield 20 22.5 16 25.6 Forward 50 9 12.3 18 14.1 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Brisbane. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 37 31.1 51 30.9 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Brisbane. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 23 88% 85.2% 64.9% Clayton Oliver 19 73% 71.2% 81.4% Jack Viney 19 73% 68.1% 72.1% Trent Rivers 18 69% 11.9% 3.0% Tom Sparrow 15 58% 38.1% 44.9% Kysaiah Pickett 4 15% 37.0% 11.2% Alex Neal-Bullen 3 12% 14.8% 2.1% Jacob van Rooyen 3 12% 13.0% 7.6% Harrison Petty 0 0% 3.9% 0.7% Koltyn Tholstrup 0 0% 2.7% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Christian Petracca 55.8% 61.1% Christian Salem 17.6% 0.0% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Bailey Laurie 4.4% 0.0% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Lachie Hunter 0.0% 0.2% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 80 80% 82.6% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 15 15% 14.0% 13.1% Harrison Petty 5 5% 4.8% 2.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.2% 2.3% Christian Petracca 0.0% 0.4% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 80 41 11 26.5% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 15 7 0 24.5% 31.1% Harrison Petty 5 0 0 31.8% 25.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Ben Brown 100.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Christian Petracca 100.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Oscar McInerney 82 32 4 Eric Hipwood 1 1 0 Joe Daniher 17 1 0
-
-
Melbourne v North Melbourne (Round 15, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20241504 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 63.3 71.7 -8.4 Kicking Efficiency 60.0 63.7 -3.7 Metres Gained 5301 5565 -264 Inside 50s 47 48 -1 Shots At Goal 16 18 -2 Shots Per Inside 50 34.0 37.5 -3.5 Contested Possessions 135 143 -8 Ground Ball Gets 85 95 -10 Intercepts 71 67 +4 Intercept Marks 12 14 -2 Centre Clearances 10 13 -3 Stoppage Clearances 25 29 -4 Contested Marks 10 11 -1 Marks Inside 50 9 9 +0 Hitouts 35 30 +5 Hitouts To Advantage 8 9 -1 Tackles 67 67 +0 Tackles Inside 50 15 13 +2 Def One On One Loss % 42.9 60.0 -17.1 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Melbourne's Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 2 3 -1 Loose Ball Get 18 9 +9 Contested Mark 2 3 -1 Gather From Hitout 0 1 -1 Contested Knock On 2 2 0 Free For 5 2 +3 Total 29 20 +9 Melbourne's Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 5 5 0 Loose Ball Get 6 17 -11 Contested Mark 2 2 0 Ruck Hard Ball Get 1 0 +1 Free For 3 2 +1 Total 17 26 -9 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 15 11 +4 Loose Ball Get 45 55 -10 Contested Mark 10 11 -1 Contested Knock On 4 3 +1 Free For 16 14 +2 Total 90 94 -4 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 6 9 -3 Loose Ball Get 19 20 -1 Ruck Hard Ball Get 6 7 -1 Gather From Hitout 6 8 -2 Contested Knock On 3 0 +3 Free For 5 5 0 Total 45 49 -4 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets. 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions. Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 55.0 70 1 29% +3 +10.6 North Melbourne 62.7 67 1 71% +7.6 Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 16 11.3.69 68.8% 54.0 +15.0 3.38 +0.94 North Melbourne 18 10.6.66 55.6% 61.7 +4.3 3.43 +0.24 General Play Melbourne 4 2.1.13 50.0% 7.6 +5.4 1.89 +1.36 North Melbourne 6 5.1.31 83.3% 21.9 +9.1 3.65 +1.52 Set Position Melbourne 12 9.2.56 75.0% 46.5 +9.5 3.87 +0.79 North Melbourne 12 5.5.35 41.7% 39.8 −4.8 3.31 −0.40 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Agn Diff 1 163 174 -11 2 185 195 -10 3 224 197 +27 4 181 218 -37 Match 189 195 -6 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Alex Neal-Bullen 33 80 54.4 Kade Chandler 23 61 47.2 Trent Rivers 23 52 24.9 Jack Viney 19 45 60.0 Tom Sparrow 20 45 46.0 Ed Langdon 24 45 31.2 Caleb Windsor 21 44 33.5 Koltyn Tholstrup 15 41 40.0 Clayton Oliver 15 38 45.3 Kysaiah Pickett 20 35 42.0 Christian Salem 11 25 27.0 Harrison Petty 13 22 27.6 Max Gawn 9 22 24.7 Adam Tomlinson 8 20 23.2 Jacob van Rooyen 7 18 16.2 Jake Bowey 9 15 15.4 Tom McDonald 6 14 21.2 Blake Howes 4 9 17.2 Daniel Turner 6 9 12.7 Bayley Fritsch 5 7 15.6 Kynan Brown 4 7 7.0 Judd McVee 6 6 14.7 Steven May 1 0 9.2 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 50% 50% 2 43% 57% 3 57% 43% 4 40% 60% Match 47% 53% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.0.0 0.0.0 +0 Centre Bounce 1.0.6 0.2.2 +4 Stoppage (Other) 5.1.31 3.1.19 +12 Turnover 5.3.33 7.4.46 -13 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 0 2.6 0 1.6 Centre Bounce 6 10.8 2 6.9 Stoppage (Other) 31 22.4 19 19.9 Turnover 33 40.9 46 48.1 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by North Melbourne. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 6 10.8 2 6.9 Kick-in D50 0 2.6 0 1.6 Stoppage (Other) D50 6 2.0 0 1.8 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 2.0 0 2.3 Stoppage (Other) Wing 7 12.2 7 8.8 Stoppage (Other) F50 18 6.2 12 7.1 Turnover D50 7 7.6 18 8.2 Turnover Centre 6 7.1 12 8.7 Turnover Wing 18 19.9 15 24.4 Turnover F50 2 6.3 1 6.8 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 13 12.3 18 11.6 Centre 12 19.9 14 17.9 Wing 25 32.1 22 33.1 F50 20 12.5 13 13.9 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 13 12.3 18 11.6 Defensive midfield 12 18.4 19 17.9 Centre bounce 6 10.8 2 6.9 Attacking midfield 19 22.7 15 26.3 Forward 50 20 12.5 13 13.9 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by North Melbourne. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 25 30.7 37 29.4 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by North Melbourne. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 21 84% 85.0% 64.9% Trent Rivers 20 80% 7.8% 3.0% Clayton Oliver 17 68% 71.1% 81.4% Jack Viney 14 56% 67.8% 72.1% Tom Sparrow 13 52% 36.7% 44.9% Kysaiah Pickett 9 36% 38.8% 11.2% Jacob van Rooyen 4 16% 13.1% 7.6% Alex Neal-Bullen 2 8% 15.0% 2.1% Christian Salem 0 0% 17.6% 0.0% Harrison Petty 0 0% 4.2% 0.7% Koltyn Tholstrup 0 0% 4.1% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Christian Petracca 55.8% 61.1% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Bailey Laurie 4.4% 0.0% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Lachie Hunter 0.0% 0.2% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 84 82% 82.8% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 19 18% 13.9% 13.1% Harrison Petty 0 0% 4.8% 2.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.2% 2.3% Christian Petracca 0.0% 0.4% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 84 30 7 26.5% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 19 5 1 28.6% 31.1% Harrison Petty 0 0 0 31.8% 25.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Ben Brown 100.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Christian Petracca 100.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Tristan Xerri 77 20 5 Brynn Teakle 24 10 4 Luke Davies-Uniacke 1 0 0 Nick Larkey 1 0 0
-
-
Melbourne v Collingwood (Round 13, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20241308 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 69.1 71.8 -2.7 Kicking Efficiency 62.4 68.4 -6.0 Metres Gained 5894 6097 -203 Inside 50s 47 50 -3 Shots At Goal 24 22 +2 Shots Per Inside 50 51.1 44.0 +7.1 Contested Possessions 128 105 +23 Ground Ball Gets 89 70 +19 Intercepts 65 57 +8 Intercept Marks 26 18 +8 Centre Clearances 6 14 -8 Stoppage Clearances 23 25 -2 Contested Marks 14 10 +4 Marks Inside 50 13 12 +1 Hitouts 48 23 +25 Hitouts To Advantage 7 8 -1 Tackles 49 69 -20 Tackles Inside 50 9 15 -6 Def One On One Loss % 12.5 40.0 -27.5 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Melbourne's Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 4 4 0 Loose Ball Get 12 11 +1 Contested Mark 3 4 -1 Ruck Hard Ball Get 1 0 +1 Gather From Hitout 3 0 +3 Contested Knock On 2 1 +1 Free For 2 1 +1 Total 27 21 +6 Melbourne's Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 2 2 0 Loose Ball Get 8 8 0 Contested Mark 3 0 +3 Gather From Hitout 1 0 +1 Contested Knock On 0 2 -2 Free For 3 3 0 Total 17 15 +2 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 12 4 +8 Loose Ball Get 45 33 +12 Contested Mark 14 10 +4 Contested Knock On 3 3 0 Free For 8 6 +2 Total 82 56 +26 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 7 7 0 Loose Ball Get 25 26 -1 Ruck Hard Ball Get 3 1 +2 Gather From Hitout 6 6 0 Contested Knock On 2 2 0 Free For 3 7 -4 Total 46 49 -3 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets. 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions. Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 66.8 51 2 39% Collingwood 71.2 89 1 61% +4.4 +38 +33.6 Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 24 6.13.49 25.0% 64.8 −15.8 2.70 −0.66 Collingwood 22 14.4.88 63.6% 70.2 +17.8 3.19 +0.81 General Play Melbourne 9 2.5.17 22.2% 23.4 −6.4 2.60 −0.71 Collingwood 9 5.3.33 55.6% 28.9 +4.1 3.21 +0.46 Set Position Melbourne 15 4.8.32 26.7% 41.4 −9.4 2.76 −0.63 Collingwood 13 9.1.55 69.2% 41.4 +13.6 3.18 +1.05 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Agn Diff 1 163 173 -10 2 146 199 -53 3 179 173 +6 4 167 201 -34 Match 164 187 -23 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Jack Viney 20 43 61.2 Caleb Windsor 19 42 32.7 Kysaiah Pickett 18 39 42.6 Christian Salem 16 38 27.2 Bailey Laurie 22 38 14.8 Ed Langdon 16 33 30.0 Kade Chandler 17 31 46.2 Clayton Oliver 17 30 45.8 Alex Neal-Bullen 11 29 52.5 Tom Sparrow 12 27 46.1 Trent Rivers 10 26 22.8 Bayley Fritsch 10 20 16.3 Christian Petracca 8 19 33.7 Max Gawn 5 15 24.9 Harrison Petty 7 14 28.1 Judd McVee 10 14 15.4 Jacob van Rooyen 8 13 16.1 Jack Billings 6 12 23.8 Tom McDonald 8 12 21.8 Blake Howes 5 11 18.0 Steven May 5 10 10.0 Jake Bowey 6 9 15.5 Daniel Turner 4 7 13.4 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 63% 37% 2 42% 58% 3 53% 47% 4 42% 58% Match 50% 50% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.0.0 0.0.0 +0 Centre Bounce 0.0.0 1.1.7 -7 Stoppage (Other) 2.5.17 3.3.21 -4 Turnover 4.10.34 10.1.61 -27 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 0 2.8 0 1.7 Centre Bounce 0 11.2 7 7.2 Stoppage (Other) 17 21.8 21 20.0 Turnover 34 41.5 61 48.2 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Collingwood. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 0 11.2 7 7.2 Kick-in D50 0 2.8 0 1.7 Stoppage (Other) D50 2 1.7 0 1.9 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 2.2 6 2.5 Stoppage (Other) Wing 15 12.6 0 8.9 Stoppage (Other) F50 0 5.3 15 6.7 Turnover D50 9 7.7 6 7.5 Turnover Centre 9 7.2 12 8.5 Turnover Wing 15 20.0 25 25.1 Turnover F50 1 6.6 18 7.2 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 11 12.2 6 11.1 Centre 9 20.5 25 18.2 Wing 30 32.6 25 34.0 F50 1 11.9 33 13.9 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 11 12.2 6 11.1 Defensive midfield 20 18.9 19 17.8 Centre bounce 0 11.2 7 7.2 Attacking midfield 19 23.0 24 27.2 Forward 50 1 11.9 33 13.9 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Collingwood. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 31 31.2 25 28.8 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Collingwood. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 22 96% 85.1% 64.9% Clayton Oliver 19 83% 71.3% 81.4% Kysaiah Pickett 19 83% 39.0% 11.2% Jack Viney 18 78% 68.7% 72.1% Tom Sparrow 6 26% 35.5% 44.9% Christian Petracca 4 17% 55.8% 61.1% Bailey Laurie 3 13% 4.4% 0.0% Jacob van Rooyen 1 4% 12.9% 7.6% Christian Salem 0 0% 19.3% 0.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 15.5% 2.1% Harrison Petty 0 0% 4.6% 0.7% Trent Rivers 0 0% 2.4% 3.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Koltyn Tholstrup 8.3% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Lachie Hunter 0.0% 0.2% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 78 91% 82.9% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 4 5% 13.4% 13.1% Harrison Petty 4 5% 5.3% 2.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0% 0.0% 0.4% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.2% 2.3% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 78 45 7 26.7% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 4 2 0 29.7% 31.1% Harrison Petty 4 1 0 31.8% 25.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Ben Brown 100.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Darcy Cameron 60 22 8 Billy Frampton 15 1 0 Nathan Kreuger 11 0 0
-
-
Melbourne v Fremantle (Round 12, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20241206 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 76.2 80.2 -4.0 Kicking Efficiency 70.9 75.4 -4.5 Metres Gained 5268 6592 -1324 Inside 50s 37 68 -31 Shots At Goal 17 33 -16 Shots Per Inside 50 45.9 48.5 -2.6 Contested Possessions 96 138 -42 Ground Ball Gets 68 92 -24 Intercepts 67 67 +0 Intercept Marks 16 15 +1 Centre Clearances 10 22 -12 Stoppage Clearances 13 26 -13 Contested Marks 4 10 -6 Marks Inside 50 10 17 -7 Hitouts 35 32 +3 Hitouts To Advantage 9 15 -6 Tackles 52 53 -1 Tackles Inside 50 12 9 +3 Def One On One Loss % 13.3 0.0 +13.3 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Melbourne's Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 2 3 -1 Loose Ball Get 19 14 +5 Contested Mark 1 3 -2 Gather From Hitout 1 2 -1 Contested Knock On 0 1 -1 Free For 4 1 +3 Total 27 24 +3 Melbourne's Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 3 5 -2 Loose Ball Get 3 10 -7 Contested Mark 0 1 -1 Gather From Hitout 1 2 -1 Free For 1 5 -4 Total 8 23 -15 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 10 13 -3 Loose Ball Get 36 47 -11 Contested Mark 4 10 -6 Contested Knock On 2 2 0 Free For 6 10 -4 Total 58 82 -24 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 5 6 -1 Loose Ball Get 17 26 -9 Ruck Hard Ball Get 4 5 -1 Gather From Hitout 9 12 -3 Contested Knock On 1 1 0 Free For 2 6 -4 Total 38 56 -18 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets. 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions. Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 58.4 49 2 0% Fremantle 117.0 141 0 100% +58.6 +92 +33.4 Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 17 7.5.47 41.2% 56.4 −9.4 3.32 −0.55 Fremantle 33 22.9.141 66.7% 117.0 +24.0 3.55 +0.73 General Play Melbourne 8 4.2.26 50.0% 22.8 +3.2 2.86 +0.39 Fremantle 16 8.7.55 50.0% 45.8 +9.2 2.86 +0.57 Set Position Melbourne 9 3.3.21 33.3% 33.5 −12.5 3.72 −1.39 Fremantle 17 14.2.86 82.4% 71.2 +14.8 4.19 +0.87 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Agn Diff 1 179 172 +7 2 167 187 -20 3 198 205 -7 4 154 160 -6 Match 175 181 -6 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Clayton Oliver 28 69 47.2 Jack Viney 26 62 62.7 Alex Neal-Bullen 25 61 54.4 Kysaiah Pickett 21 41 43.0 Christian Petracca 23 41 34.9 Caleb Windsor 18 37 31.9 Harrison Petty 17 37 29.5 Tom Sparrow 19 34 47.7 Bayley Fritsch 14 33 16.0 Kade Chandler 12 30 47.4 Jake Bowey 13 30 16.8 Shane McAdam 15 29 28.0 Max Gawn 10 29 25.8 Adam Tomlinson 9 28 24.3 Daniel Turner 12 25 15.0 Taj Woewodin 13 24 14.3 Ed Langdon 11 23 29.7 Trent Rivers 11 23 22.6 Tom McDonald 11 16 22.7 Christian Salem 6 12 26.0 Judd McVee 6 12 15.5 Steven May 5 12 10.0 Lachie Hunter 4 7 14.0 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 53% 47% 2 42% 58% 3 38% 62% 4 45% 55% Match 43% 57% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.0.0 0.0.0 +0 Centre Bounce 0.1.1 1.1.7 -6 Stoppage (Other) 0.2.2 7.2.44 -42 Turnover 7.4.46 14.6.90 -44 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 0 3.1 0 1.8 Centre Bounce 1 12.1 7 7.2 Stoppage (Other) 2 22.2 44 19.9 Turnover 46 42.1 90 47.2 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Fremantle. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 1 12.1 7 7.2 Kick-in D50 0 3.1 0 1.8 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 1.7 7 2.1 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 2.3 0 2.2 Stoppage (Other) Wing 1 12.4 19 9.7 Stoppage (Other) F50 1 5.8 18 6.0 Turnover D50 7 7.6 1 7.6 Turnover Centre 6 7.0 31 8.2 Turnover Wing 32 20.4 45 25.1 Turnover F50 1 7.1 13 6.3 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 7 12.3 8 11.5 Centre 7 21.4 38 17.6 Wing 33 32.8 64 34.8 F50 2 12.8 31 12.3 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 7 12.3 8 11.5 Defensive midfield 12 18.8 37 17.7 Centre bounce 1 12.1 7 7.2 Attacking midfield 27 23.3 58 27.4 Forward 50 2 12.8 31 12.3 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Fremantle. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 19 31.2 45 29.2 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Fremantle. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 28 85% 84.3% 64.9% Jack Viney 20 61% 67.9% 72.1% Clayton Oliver 19 58% 70.5% 81.4% Christian Petracca 17 52% 58.7% 61.1% Kysaiah Pickett 17 52% 35.2% 11.2% Alex Neal-Bullen 15 45% 16.7% 2.1% Tom Sparrow 11 33% 36.2% 44.9% Harrison Petty 5 15% 5.0% 0.7% Christian Salem 0 0% 21.2% 0.0% Trent Rivers 0 0% 2.6% 3.0% Lachie Hunter 0 0% 0.0% 0.2% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Jacob van Rooyen 13.7% 7.6% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Koltyn Tholstrup 8.3% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Bailey Laurie 1.5% 0.0% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 73 85% 82.3% 57.5% Harrison Petty 13 15% 5.4% 2.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0% 0.0% 0.4% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Jacob van Rooyen 14.2% 13.1% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.2% 2.3% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 73 31 8 27.9% 30.1% Harrison Petty 13 4 1 33.3% 25.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Ben Brown 100.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Jacob van Rooyen 31.4% 31.1% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Sean Darcy 50 21 10 Luke Jackson 37 11 5