WheeloRatings

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs (Round 1, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20240107 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 75.5 73.2 +2.3 Kicking Efficiency 72.4 64.0 +8.4 Metres Gained 6369 5719 +650 Inside 50s 53 53 +0 Shots At Goal 28 24 +4 Shots Per Inside 50 52.8 45.3 +7.5 Contested Possessions 126 126 +0 Ground Ball Gets 69 82 -13 Intercepts 69 59 +10 Intercept Marks 20 15 +5 Centre Clearances 13 15 -2 Stoppage Clearances 23 19 +4 Contested Marks 12 9 +3 Marks Inside 50 12 13 -1 Hitouts 38 27 +11 Hitouts To Advantage 17 10 +7 Tackles 47 37 +10 Tackles Inside 50 7 4 +3 Def One On One Loss % 30.0 25.0 +5.0 Expected scores Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 28 16.11.107 57.1% 83.3 +23.7 2.97 +0.85 Western Bulldogs 24 9.9.63 37.5% 67.4 −4.4 2.81 −0.18 General Play Melbourne 13 9.4.58 69.2% 39.0 +19.0 3.00 +1.46 Western Bulldogs 10 4.3.27 40.0% 25.1 +1.9 2.51 +0.19 Set Position Melbourne 15 7.7.49 46.7% 44.3 +4.7 2.95 +0.31 Western Bulldogs 14 5.6.36 35.7% 42.4 −6.4 3.03 −0.46 xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 175 166 2 171 164 3 195 162 4 167 155 Match 177 162 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Jack Viney 30 62 62.5 Jack Billings 21 50 33.5 Kysaiah Pickett 21 48 48.0 Kade Chandler 22 47 47.0 Christian Salem 20 46 37.0 Christian Petracca 26 45 37.5 Alex Neal-Bullen 18 36 41.5 Tom McDonald 15 33 33.0 Trent Rivers 16 31 24.0 Clayton Oliver 15 29 37.5 Jake Lever 13 29 16.5 Tom Sparrow 16 28 49.5 Ed Langdon 14 25 29.5 Caleb Windsor 10 24 34.5 Marty Hore 9 20 20.0 Max Gawn 8 16 23.0 Steven May 6 16 17.0 Judd McVee 7 15 8.5 Ben Brown 9 11 11.0 Taj Woewodin 3 10 10.0 Blake Howes 4 9 21.5 Jacob van Rooyen 3 8 12.0 Bayley Fritsch 3 4 11.5 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 49% 51% 2 38% 62% 3 50% 50% 4 47% 53% Match 47% 53% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.1.1 0.2.2 -1 Centre Bounce 2.0.12 1.2.8 +4 Stoppage (Other) 5.5.35 2.1.13 +22 Turnover 9.7.61 6.5.41 +20 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 1 0.5 2 1.0 Centre Bounce 12 9.5 8 5.5 Stoppage (Other) 35 25.5 13 20.5 Turnover 61 51.0 41 48.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Western Bulldogs. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in D50 1 0.5 2 1.0 Centre Bounce Centre 12 9.5 8 5.5 Stoppage (Other) D50 1 0.5 0 0.0 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 0.0 0 0.5 Stoppage (Other) Wing 20 13.5 6 16.0 Stoppage (Other) F50 14 11.5 7 4.0 Turnover D50 6 4.0 8 7.0 Turnover Centre 1 3.5 8 7.0 Turnover Wing 42 25.5 19 29.0 Turnover F50 12 18.0 6 5.0 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 8 5.0 10 8.0 Centre 13 13.0 16 13.0 Wing 62 39.0 25 45.0 F50 26 29.5 13 9.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Western Bulldogs. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 39 23.5 17 22.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Western Bulldogs. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 25 86 86.8 64.9 Christian Salem 22 76 58.5 0.0 Jack Viney 20 69 73.6 72.1 Clayton Oliver 20 69 66.0 81.4 Christian Petracca 18 62 60.4 61.1 Kysaiah Pickett 7 24 24.1 11.2 Jacob van Rooyen 4 14 9.4 7.6 Tom Sparrow 0 0 24.5 44.9 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 1.9 2.1 Tom McDonald 0 0 0.0 5.7 Trent Rivers 0 0 0.0 3.0 Josh Schache 8.3 0.0 Charlie Spargo 4.2 0.0 Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 60 74 80.1 57.5 Jacob van Rooyen 21 26 12.4 13.1 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0.0 0.0 Ben Brown 0 0 0.0 2.3 Christian Petracca 0 0 0.0 0.4 Clayton Oliver 0 0 0.0 0.1 Steven May 0 0 0.0 0.0 Tom McDonald 0 0 0.0 9.3 Tom Sparrow 0 0 0.0 0.0 Josh Schache 13.3 4.1 Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 60 35 17 34.7 30.1 Jacob van Rooyen 21 3 0 0.0 31.1 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0 Ben Brown 0 0 0 0.0 Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0 Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0 Josh Schache 100.0 0.0 Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Tim English 60 21 10 Rory Lobb 21 6 0

The quarterly values and match total are from two different sources. The match total is official - I have calculated the quarterly values myself from the data I have access to, but they won't necessarly align. I calculated the match time in forward half as 46% to 54%.

Melbourne v Sydney (Opening Round, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20240001 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 71.1 68.9 +2.2 Kicking Efficiency 63.4 64.5 -1.1 Metres Gained 5534 6279 -745 Inside 50s 51 65 -14 Shots At Goal 21 29 -8 Shots Per Inside 50 41.2 44.6 -3.4 Contested Possessions 145 146 -1 Ground Ball Gets 109 98 +11 Intercepts 78 75 +3 Intercept Marks 14 18 -4 Centre Clearances 12 9 +3 Stoppage Clearances 22 36 -14 Contested Marks 3 8 -5 Marks Inside 50 5 9 -4 Hitouts 38 46 -8 Hitouts To Advantage 9 13 -4 Tackles 65 63 +2 Tackles Inside 50 24 13 +11 Def One On One Loss % 20.0 28.6 -8.6 Expected scores Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 21 9.8.62 42.9% 63.7 −1.7 3.03 −0.08 Sydney 29 12.10.82 41.4% 79.7 +2.3 2.75 +0.08 General Play Melbourne 15 5.6.36 33.3% 43.2 −7.2 2.88 −0.48 Sydney 16 7.8.50 43.8% 42.3 +7.7 2.64 +0.48 Set Position Melbourne 6 4.2.26 66.7% 20.5 +5.5 3.42 +0.91 Sydney 13 5.2.32 38.5% 37.4 −5.4 2.88 −0.42 xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 193 202 2 177 171 3 195 186 4 159 204 Match 182 190 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Tom Sparrow 31 71 71.0 Jack Viney 30 63 63.0 Kade Chandler 20 47 47.0 Alex Neal-Bullen 20 47 47.0 Clayton Oliver 25 46 46.0 Caleb Windsor 20 45 45.0 Blake Howes 12 34 34.0 Ed Langdon 18 34 34.0 Max Gawn 11 30 30.0 Christian Petracca 15 30 30.0 Christian Salem 14 28 28.0 Bayley Fritsch 11 19 19.0 Steven May 8 18 18.0 Adam Tomlinson 8 18 18.0 Jack Billings 6 17 17.0 Trent Rivers 10 17 17.0 Josh Schache 8 17 17.0 Charlie Spargo 8 17 17.0 Jacob van Rooyen 6 16 16.0 Bailey Laurie 8 15 15.0 Jake Bowey 5 11 11.0 Jake Lever 3 4 4.0 Judd McVee 1 2 2.0 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 48% 52% 2 55% 45% 3 39% 61% 4 40% 60% Match 48% 52% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.0.0 0.0.0 +0 Centre Bounce 1.1.7 0.3.3 +4 Stoppage (Other) 2.4.16 4.4.28 -12 Turnover 6.5.41 8.7.55 -14 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce 7 7.0 3 3.0 Stoppage (Other) 16 16.0 28 28.0 Turnover 41 41.0 55 55.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 7 7.0 3 3.0 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 0.0 1 1.0 Stoppage (Other) Wing 7 7.0 26 26.0 Stoppage (Other) F50 9 9.0 1 1.0 Turnover D50 2 2.0 6 6.0 Turnover Centre 6 6.0 6 6.0 Turnover Wing 9 9.0 39 39.0 Turnover F50 24 24.0 4 4.0 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 2 2.0 6 6.0 Centre 13 13.0 10 10.0 Wing 16 16.0 65 65.0 F50 33 33.0 5 5.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 8 8.0 27 27.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 21 88 87.5 64.9 Jack Viney 19 79 79.2 72.1 Clayton Oliver 15 62 62.5 81.4 Christian Petracca 14 58 58.3 61.1 Tom Sparrow 13 54 54.2 44.9 Christian Salem 9 38 37.5 0.0 Josh Schache 2 8 8.3 0.0 Alex Neal-Bullen 1 4 4.2 2.1 Charlie Spargo 1 4 4.2 0.0 Jacob van Rooyen 1 4 4.2 7.6 Trent Rivers 0 0 0.0 3.0 Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 89 85 84.8 57.5 Josh Schache 14 13 13.3 4.1 Jacob van Rooyen 2 2 1.9 13.1 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0.0 0.0 Christian Petracca 0 0 0.0 0.4 Clayton Oliver 0 0 0.0 0.1 Steven May 0 0 0.0 0.0 Tom Sparrow 0 0 0.0 0.0 Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 89 37 8 21.6 30.1 Josh Schache 14 1 1 100.0 0.0 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0 Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0 Jacob van Rooyen 2 0 0 31.1 Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Brodie Grundy 76 33 13 Hayden McLean 24 10 0 Joel Amartey 4 2 0 Justin McInerney 1 1 0

Here are the stats for last night. I can add them to the Stats Files thread once @Demon Dynasty creates it for 2024. It's largely the same range of stats as last year, although I have developed an expected score model over the off season so this is included. Attn @binman Melbourne v Sydney (Opening Round, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20240001 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 71.1 68.9 +2.2 Kicking Efficiency 63.4 64.5 -1.1 Metres Gained 5534 6279 -745 Inside 50s 51 65 -14 Shots At Goal 21 29 -8 Shots Per Inside 50 41.2 44.6 -3.4 Contested Possessions 145 146 -1 Ground Ball Gets 109 98 +11 Intercepts 78 75 +3 Intercept Marks 14 18 -4 Centre Clearances 12 9 +3 Stoppage Clearances 22 36 -14 Contested Marks 3 8 -5 Marks Inside 50 5 9 -4 Hitouts 38 46 -8 Hitouts To Advantage 9 13 -4 Tackles 65 63 +2 Tackles Inside 50 24 13 +11 Def One On One Loss % 20.0 28.6 -8.6 Expected scores Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 21 9.8.62 42.9% 63.7 −1.7 3.03 −0.08 Sydney 29 12.10.82 41.4% 79.7 +2.3 2.75 +0.08 General Play Melbourne 15 5.6.36 33.3% 43.2 −7.2 2.88 −0.48 Sydney 16 7.8.50 43.8% 42.3 +7.7 2.64 +0.48 Set Position Melbourne 6 4.2.26 66.7% 20.5 +5.5 3.42 +0.91 Sydney 13 5.2.32 38.5% 37.4 −5.4 2.88 −0.42 xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 193 202 2 177 171 3 195 186 4 159 204 Match 182 190 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Tom Sparrow 31 71 71.0 Jack Viney 30 63 63.0 Kade Chandler 20 47 47.0 Alex Neal-Bullen 20 47 47.0 Clayton Oliver 25 46 46.0 Caleb Windsor 20 45 45.0 Blake Howes 12 34 34.0 Ed Langdon 18 34 34.0 Max Gawn 11 30 30.0 Christian Petracca 15 30 30.0 Christian Salem 14 28 28.0 Bayley Fritsch 11 19 19.0 Steven May 8 18 18.0 Adam Tomlinson 8 18 18.0 Jack Billings 6 17 17.0 Trent Rivers 10 17 17.0 Josh Schache 8 17 17.0 Charlie Spargo 8 17 17.0 Jacob van Rooyen 6 16 16.0 Bailey Laurie 8 15 15.0 Jake Bowey 5 11 11.0 Jake Lever 3 4 4.0 Judd McVee 1 2 2.0 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 48% 52% 2 55% 45% 3 39% 61% 4 40% 60% Match 48% 52% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.0.0 0.0.0 +0 Centre Bounce 1.1.7 0.3.3 +4 Stoppage (Other) 2.4.16 4.4.28 -12 Turnover 6.5.41 8.7.55 -14 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce 7 7.0 3 3.0 Stoppage (Other) 16 16.0 28 28.0 Turnover 41 41.0 55 55.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 7 7.0 3 3.0 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 0.0 1 1.0 Stoppage (Other) Wing 7 7.0 26 26.0 Stoppage (Other) F50 9 9.0 1 1.0 Turnover D50 2 2.0 6 6.0 Turnover Centre 6 6.0 6 6.0 Turnover Wing 9 9.0 39 39.0 Turnover F50 24 24.0 4 4.0 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 2 2.0 6 6.0 Centre 13 13.0 10 10.0 Wing 16 16.0 65 65.0 F50 33 33.0 5 5.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 8 8.0 27 27.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 21 88 87.5 64.9 Jack Viney 19 79 79.2 72.1 Clayton Oliver 15 62 62.5 81.4 Christian Petracca 14 58 58.3 61.1 Tom Sparrow 13 54 54.2 44.9 Christian Salem 9 38 37.5 0.0 Josh Schache 2 8 8.3 0.0 Alex Neal-Bullen 1 4 4.2 2.1 Charlie Spargo 1 4 4.2 0.0 Jacob van Rooyen 1 4 4.2 7.6 Trent Rivers 0 0 0.0 3.0 Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 89 85 84.8 57.5 Josh Schache 14 13 13.3 4.1 Jacob van Rooyen 2 2 1.9 13.1 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0.0 0.0 Christian Petracca 0 0 0.0 0.4 Clayton Oliver 0 0 0.0 0.1 Steven May 0 0 0.0 0.0 Tom Sparrow 0 0 0.0 0.0 Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 89 37 8 21.6 30.1 Josh Schache 14 1 1 100.0 0.0 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0 Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0 Jacob van Rooyen 2 0 0 31.1 Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Brodie Grundy 76 33 13 Hayden McLean 24 10 0 Joel Amartey 4 2 0 Justin McInerney 1 1 0

Yes, home ground advantage is the main reason my model is predicting Sydney. My model, and all the other Squiggle models, carry over team ratings from the prior season. My model has Melbourne rated higher, but the home advantage to Sydney is greater.

Here are Gawn's stats for 2023 with and without Grundy. Metric With Grundy Without Grundy Diff Matches 14 8 -6 Time On Ground % 78.1 86.2 +8.1 Rating Points 12.3 16.6 +4.3 Disposals 14.7 20.8 +6.0 Metres Gained 229.4 320.0 +90.6 Centre Bounce Attendance % 49.7 88.0 +38.3 Clearances 3.4 5.9 +2.5 Marks 4.2 5.4 +1.2 Contested Marks 2.2 2.5 +0.3 Intercept Marks 1.2 1.6 +0.4 Goals 7 3 -4 Score Involvement % 17.3 23.7 +6.4 Tackles 2.0 2.0 +0.0 Ruck Contest % 47.3 75.0 +27.8 Hitouts 21.8 32.5 +10.7 Hitouts Win % 50.8 47.0 -3.8 Hitouts To Advantage % 29.5 30.8 +1.3

@TheWiz I have most of the stats from that article. Here are the top 10 rucks across the various stats in 2023, and I have also included a table at the end comparing all rucks in 2023 with 10+ matches (note the text in the table may wrap on a mobile device). Rating Points 1 | 16.5 | Tim English (WB) 2 | 15.3 | Rowan Marshall (St K) 3 | 15.0 | Kieren Briggs (GWS) 4 | 13.9 | Max Gawn (Melb) 5 | 13.8 | Todd Goldstein (NM) 6 | 13.3 | Luke Jackson (Frem) 7 | 13.3 | Jarrod Witts (GC) 8 | 13.2 | Sean Darcy (Frem) 9 | 13.1 | Oscar McInerney (Bris) 10 | 13.1 | Toby Nankervis (Rich) Score Involvement % 1 | 26.7 | Luke Jackson (Frem) 2 | 25.5 | Sean Darcy (Frem) 3 | 22.7 | Rowan Marshall (St K) 4 | 22.6 | Tim English (WB) 5 | 21.2 | Sam Draper (Ess) 6 | 20.9 | Hayden McLean (Syd) 7 | 19.8 | Max Gawn (Melb) 8 | 19.4 | Darcy Cameron (Coll) 9 | 19.2 | Jarrod Witts (GC) 10 | 18.9 | Mark Blicavs (Geel) Metres Gained 1 | 280.7 | Rowan Marshall (St K) 2 | 263.4 | Kieren Briggs (GWS) 3 | 262.4 | Max Gawn (Melb) 4 | 255.0 | Tim English (WB) 5 | 221.3 | Mark Blicavs (Geel) 6 | 210.0 | Sam Draper (Ess) 7 | 200.2 | Oscar McInerney (Bris) 8 | 199.1 | Luke Jackson (Frem) 9 | 182.1 | Tom De Koning (Carl) 10 | 175.6 | Toby Nankervis (Rich) Marks 1 | 6.3 | Tim English (WB) 2 | 5.2 | Rowan Marshall (St K) 3 | 4.6 | Max Gawn (Melb) 4 | 4.4 | Hayden McLean (Syd) 5 | 3.6 | Mason Cox (Coll) 6 | 3.4 | Mark Blicavs (Geel) 6 | 3.4 | Darcy Cameron (Coll) 8 | 3.4 | Sean Darcy (Frem) 9 | 3.4 | Luke Jackson (Frem) 10 | 2.9 | Reilly O'Brien (Adel) Contested Marks 1 | 2.3 | Max Gawn (Melb) 2 | 1.5 | Sean Darcy (Frem) 3 | 1.5 | Mason Cox (Coll) 4 | 1.5 | Hayden McLean (Syd) 5 | 1.5 | Rowan Marshall (St K) 6 | 1.4 | Reilly O'Brien (Adel) 7 | 1.4 | Darcy Cameron (Coll) 8 | 1.3 | Tim English (WB) 9 | 1.2 | Luke Jackson (Frem) 10 | 1.1 | Sam Draper (Ess) Intercept Marks 1 | 2.0 | Tim English (WB) 2 | 1.9 | Rowan Marshall (St K) 3 | 1.5 | Reilly O'Brien (Adel) 4 | 1.4 | Darcy Cameron (Coll) 5 | 1.4 | Max Gawn (Melb) 6 | 1.3 | Kieren Briggs (GWS) 7 | 1.1 | Todd Goldstein (NM) 8 | 1.1 | Brodie Grundy (Melb) 9 | 1.0 | Sean Darcy (Frem) 10 | 1.0 | Luke Jackson (Frem) Clearances 1 | 6.5 | Kieren Briggs (GWS) 2 | 5.6 | Oscar McInerney (Bris) 3 | 5.0 | Rowan Marshall (St K) 4 | 4.3 | Toby Nankervis (Rich) 4 | 4.3 | Jarrod Witts (GC) 6 | 4.3 | Max Gawn (Melb) 7 | 4.2 | Bailey J. Williams (WC) 8 | 4.2 | Mark Blicavs (Geel) 9 | 4.1 | Sean Darcy (Frem) 10 | 4.0 | Scott Lycett (Port) Tackles 1 | 5.5 | Toby Nankervis (Rich) 2 | 4.8 | Rowan Marshall (St K) 3 | 4.6 | Mark Blicavs (Geel) 4 | 4.5 | Kieren Briggs (GWS) 5 | 4.3 | Tim English (WB) 6 | 3.7 | Scott Lycett (Port) 7 | 3.6 | Lloyd Meek (Haw) 8 | 3.5 | Luke Jackson (Frem) 9 | 3.4 | Bailey J. Williams (WC) 10 | 3.2 | Darcy Cameron (Coll) 23 | 2.0 | Max Gawn (Melb) Hitouts 1 | 39.2 | Jarrod Witts (GC) 2 | 39.1 | Sean Darcy (Frem) 3 | 38.6 | Reilly O'Brien (Adel) 4 | 33.8 | Oscar McInerney (Bris) 5 | 32.5 | Toby Nankervis (Rich) 6 | 31.2 | Tim English (WB) 7 | 29.2 | Todd Goldstein (NM) 8 | 28.3 | Rhys Stanley (Geel) 9 | 28.2 | Ned Reeves (Haw) 10 | 27.6 | Bailey J. Williams (WC) 14 | 25.7 | Max Gawn (Melb) Hitouts Win % 1 | 56.8 | Sean Darcy (Frem) 2 | 50.7 | Andrew Phillips (Ess) 3 | 50.0 | Ned Reeves (Haw) 4 | 49.6 | Mason Cox (Coll) 5 | 49.5 | Jarrod Witts (GC) 6 | 49.5 | Reilly O'Brien (Adel) 7 | 49.0 | Max Gawn (Melb) 8 | 47.9 | Brodie Grundy (Melb) 9 | 47.7 | Toby Nankervis (Rich) 10 | 46.6 | Samson Ryan (Rich) Hitouts To Advantage % 1 | 38.0 | Samson Ryan (Rich) 2 | 35.0 | Marc Pittonet (Carl) 3 | 33.8 | Tim English (WB) 4 | 33.4 | Todd Goldstein (NM) 5 | 32.7 | Kieren Briggs (GWS) 6 | 31.6 | Jarrod Witts (GC) 7 | 30.7 | Ned Reeves (Haw) 8 | 30.4 | Ben Miller (Rich) 9 | 30.4 | Brodie Grundy (Melb) 10 | 30.1 | Sam Draper (Ess) 11 | 30.1 | Max Gawn (Melb) Ruck Stats, 2023, 10+ matches Legend Mt: Matches TOG: Time on ground % RP: Rating Points D: Disposals MG: Metres Gained CBA %: Centre Bounce Attendance % CL: Clearances Mk: Marks CM: Contested Marks IM: Intercept Marks G: Goals SI %: Score Involvements % (out of all team scores) T: Tackles RC%: Ruck Contest % HO: Hitouts HO Win %: Hitouts win % HO Adv %: Hitouts to advantage % Mt TOG RP D MG CBA % CL Mk CM IM G SI % T RC% HO HO Win% HO Adv% Tim English (WB) 23 85.9 16.5 19.1 255.0 83.7 3.2 6.3 1.3 2.0 16 22.6 4.3 76.8 31.2 39.5 33.8 Rowan Marshall (St K) 24 84.5 15.3 20.5 280.7 86.7 5.0 5.2 1.5 1.9 8 22.7 4.8 74.9 26.6 40.0 27.9 Kieren Briggs (GWS) 17 75.6 15.0 15.4 263.4 80.0 6.5 2.8 0.7 1.3 4 18.2 4.5 74.4 25.9 38.4 32.7 Max Gawn (Melb) 22 81.1 13.9 16.9 262.4 64.9 4.3 4.6 2.3 1.4 10 19.8 2.0 57.5 25.7 49.0 30.1 Todd Goldstein (NM) 20 79.3 13.8 13.0 134.9 73.7 3.6 2.2 0.9 1.1 4 18.6 1.9 70.0 29.2 44.7 33.4 Luke Jackson (Frem) 23 82.6 13.3 15.0 199.1 44.6 2.6 3.4 1.2 1.0 22 26.7 3.5 45.5 17.7 40.3 30.0 Jarrod Witts (GC) 21 82.8 13.3 13.8 156.6 84.2 4.3 2.4 0.7 0.4 4 19.2 2.6 83.7 39.2 49.5 31.6 Sean Darcy (Frem) 15 74.5 13.2 13.8 165.2 77.7 4.1 3.4 1.5 1.0 4 25.5 3.2 69.5 39.1 56.8 28.3 Oscar McInerney (Bris) 25 82.6 13.1 12.4 200.2 80.8 5.6 1.8 0.9 0.6 9 13.5 2.9 77.0 33.8 43.7 27.8 Toby Nankervis (Rich) 15 80.3 13.1 16.7 175.6 78.6 4.3 2.5 0.3 0.9 3 18.3 5.5 74.1 32.5 47.7 26.5 Reilly O'Brien (Adel) 23 81.3 12.8 12.4 85.1 82.6 2.9 2.9 1.4 1.5 4 17.9 3.1 75.8 38.6 49.5 29.2 Mark Blicavs (Geel) 19 76.9 12.4 15.8 221.3 71.9 4.2 3.4 0.9 0.5 12 18.9 4.6 30.0 10.6 36.0 26.2 Darcy Cameron (Coll) 19 74.2 10.9 13.1 129.7 62.6 3.2 3.4 1.4 1.4 5 19.4 3.2 65.1 25.8 41.7 30.0 Tom De Koning (Carl) 19 78.4 10.7 12.0 182.1 51.1 3.5 2.8 1.0 0.8 9 17.9 2.5 49.0 17.7 39.8 28.2 Sam Draper (Ess) 14 76.7 10.7 11.0 210.0 66.1 3.1 2.6 1.1 0.6 10 21.2 2.0 60.7 20.1 39.8 30.1 Brodie Grundy (Melb) 17 69.9 10.7 14.3 152.8 54.4 2.9 2.7 0.8 1.1 10 16.5 2.9 47.7 20.5 47.9 30.4 Bailey J. Williams (WC) 23 81.8 10.4 12.8 165.2 83.7 4.2 1.9 0.7 0.8 5 15.8 3.4 73.5 27.6 37.9 24.1 Rhys Stanley (Geel) 13 77.5 9.6 11.9 147.2 79.3 2.3 2.3 0.2 0.5 0 12.3 2.5 65.3 28.3 45.0 21.7 Tom Hickey (Syd) 12 73.7 9.5 12.2 134.3 78.0 3.2 2.2 0.6 0.4 0 14.6 2.4 66.5 23.7 35.9 22.2 Ned Reeves (Haw) 21 74.0 9.3 8.1 63.0 65.6 2.4 1.5 0.4 0.8 2 15.4 2.7 62.7 28.2 50.0 30.7 Hayden McLean (Syd) 22 79.5 9.1 12.3 150.7 28.5 1.3 4.4 1.5 0.9 21 20.9 2.5 31.0 9.7 32.9 23.5 Marc Pittonet (Carl) 18 69.2 8.6 9.5 69.4 69.5 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.8 0 13.2 1.8 63.0 24.8 42.0 35.0 Scott Lycett (Port) 14 69.1 8.6 10.6 103.6 73.3 4.0 1.0 0.1 0.1 0 13.9 3.7 62.9 24.7 41.4 28.9 Lloyd Meek (Haw) 16 69.9 8.5 9.6 72.0 46.4 2.1 2.2 0.8 0.7 3 13.2 3.6 48.6 18.0 42.7 29.5 Mason Cox (Coll) 19 66.4 7.7 8.2 121.7 40.6 1.2 3.6 1.5 0.8 17 16.4 1.4 37.2 17.1 49.6 27.2 Ben Miller (Rich) 13 73.6 7.6 7.3 94.9 22.2 0.8 2.4 0.5 0.5 6 13.2 2.2 23.2 8.8 40.2 30.4 Samson Ryan (Rich) 14 69.5 7.1 7.1 139.2 29.5 1.1 2.9 0.8 0.4 12 14.6 0.8 28.5 12.2 46.6 38.0 Andrew Phillips (Ess) 20 69.9 6.6 7.6 105.0 47.4 1.8 2.3 0.8 0.6 5 14.7 2.4 48.5 20.7 50.7 28.0 All these stats are available at: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html?year=2023

Yeah I agree that we wouldn't want those types of people voting on the award, so to avoid that risk, I'm happy with it staying with the umpires! 😂 I'd also be reluctant with providing the stats to the umpires at the risk they simply defer to the stats.

It is based on coaches votes and a range of game statistics, like disposals, contested possessions, goals, supercoach score and a number of other stats. The model calculates how much these have contributed to Brownlow votes historically from 2012-2022 and is then applied to 2023 data. All the relevant stats are combined (with a weighted sum) for all players in a given match to obtain an overall score for each player. The votes are then assigned based on these scores.

I may be wrong, but I'm not sure anyone could officiate a match well AND analyse the game to identify the best players on the ground. Umpiring AFL would be an incredibly difficult thing to do. I'm sure the last thing they're thinking about is how well players played or how impactful they were. I would rather a panel of expert analysts assigning the votes (and I don't mean media types like BT 😂).

My predicted leaderboard wasn't too bad but there are a few clear standouts. Looking at the largest difference between actual and predicted votes, it looks like Cripps stole votes off Cerra, Neale stole votes off Dunkley, and Crouch and Steele stole votes Marshall. And I'm a bit surprised that Oliver only polled 6 votes.

I have Neale a 72% chance of winning.

They're the only two premierships decided without a grand final. They were decided with a round robin (among some other factors), so I wouldn't even say they were easy flags.

16 premierships yes and they're in the graphic on 16 from 2000, but they've only won 14 grand finals 😉 Essendon won two premierships without winning a grand final, in 1897 and 1924.

I have produced a 99 page Brownlow Medal guide based on my model's predictions and 20,000 simulations of the model. You can download it from the following page: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_brownlow.html My model has Petracca 4th favourite to poll most votes at 17.0% (17.8% to win, ignoring ineligible players) and second favourite to poll in the most games. I have Daicos favourite to poll most votes at 33.6% (35.6% to win) but unlikely to poll after round 18. Here are my top 4: Daicos 33.6% to poll most votes (35.6% to win) Bontempelli 26.0% (27.5%) Butters 21.6% (22.8%) Petracca 17.0% (17.8%) I plan on posting updated probabilities during the count under the following account on X/Twitter:

They're not publically available, but here are some Melbourne handball received stats. Most handballs received, Melbourne 2023 Total Most received from Jack Viney 234 Christian Petracca (29) Lachie Hunter 224 Christian Petracca (26) Angus Brayshaw 217 Jack Viney (28) Christian Petracca 206 Clayton Oliver (20) Ed Langdon 203 Jack Viney (19) Trent Rivers 187 Angus Brayshaw (19) Tom Sparrow 171 Christian Petracca (22) Clayton Oliver 148 Christian Petracca (18) Alex Neal-Bullen 137 Christian Petracca (23) Judd McVee 131 Jake Lever (14) Christian Salem 128 Lachie Hunter (21) Jake Bowey 112 Ed Langdon (17) James Jordon 108 Christian Petracca (12) Steven May 81 Jake Lever (13) Jake Lever 79 Angus Brayshaw (10) Kade Chandler 79 Christian Petracca (10) Brodie Grundy 68 Clayton Oliver (11) Max Gawn 64 Angus Brayshaw (8) Kysaiah Pickett 57 Christian Petracca (6) Bayley Fritsch 48 Kysaiah Pickett (8) Most handballs, Melbourne 2023 Total Received Most received by Christian Petracca 344 76.5% Jack Viney (29) Jack Viney 299 70.2% Angus Brayshaw (28) Angus Brayshaw 269 78.8% Lachie Hunter (24) Lachie Hunter 230 77.0% Angus Brayshaw (24) Clayton Oliver 229 79.0% Christian Petracca (20) Ed Langdon 218 81.2% Jack Viney (18) Trent Rivers 191 76.4% Lachie Hunter (17) Tom Sparrow 182 81.3% Jack Viney (18) Alex Neal-Bullen 158 73.4% Christian Petracca (13) Jake Lever 145 86.9% Angus Brayshaw (15) Max Gawn 144 77.1% Angus Brayshaw (15) Brodie Grundy 143 70.6% Christian Petracca (10), Lachie Hunter (10) Judd McVee 128 91.4% Ed Langdon (16) James Jordon 122 86.9% Christian Petracca (14) Kade Chandler 122 79.5% Lachie Hunter (16) Jake Bowey 112 78.6% Lachie Hunter (12) Christian Salem 106 72.6% Trent Rivers (9) Jacob van Rooyen 84 79.8% Lachie Hunter (11) Steven May 75 80.0% Angus Brayshaw (6), Christian Salem (6), Jake Bowey (6), Lachie Hunter (6) Kysaiah Pickett 72 77.8% Bayley Fritsch (8) Highest combination, Melbourne 2023 Handballer Received By Total Christian Petracca Jack Viney 29 Jack Viney Angus Brayshaw 28 Christian Petracca Lachie Hunter 26 Angus Brayshaw Lachie Hunter 24 Lachie Hunter Angus Brayshaw 24 Christian Petracca Alex Neal-Bullen 23 Christian Petracca Angus Brayshaw 23 Angus Brayshaw Jack Viney 22 Christian Petracca Tom Sparrow 22 Lachie Hunter Christian Salem 21 Clayton Oliver Christian Petracca 20 Angus Brayshaw Trent Rivers 19 Jack Viney Ed Langdon 19 Christian Petracca Clayton Oliver 18 Ed Langdon Jack Viney 18 Tom Sparrow Jack Viney 18 Christian Petracca Trent Rivers 17 Clayton Oliver Lachie Hunter 17 Ed Langdon Jake Bowey 17 Ed Langdon Tom Sparrow 17 Ed Langdon Trent Rivers 17 Jack Viney Christian Petracca 17 Trent Rivers Lachie Hunter 17

I have had a look at the retention for Melbourne players kicking inside 50 this season, and funnily enough, Clarry was #1 (although only 1 in 6 of his kicks directly resulted in a mark or free). The best at hitting a target (mark or free kick) were Spargo (36%), Pickett (38%), McVee (35%), and Chandler (36%). Spargo was actually #1 in the AFL (50+ kicks) for overall retention in both 2021 and 2022 (66% in both seasons)! Below are a few tables including all Melbourne players this season. Please note that this is all based on my own calculations from the underlying data that I have access to - it is not the official Champion Data retention stats but should be indicative. Here are the descriptions of the columns in the tables. Kicks: kicks inside 50 Retained Total: % of kicks inside 50 where the next possession was won by a teammate or the kick itself went through for a goal. Mark/Free: % of kicks inside 50 where a teammate marked the kick or won a free kick. Chain Goal: % of kicks inside 50 where the chain resulted in a goal. Not Retained Opp. Poss.: % of kicks inside 50 where the next possession was won by an opposition player. Stopp.: % of kicks inside 50 where no player won possession and there was a stoppage (including ball ups and out of bounds). Behind: % of kicks inside 50 where the kick itself went through for a behind (including rushed). Melbourne Players (20+ kicks), 2023 Kicks Retained Not Retained Total Mark/ Free Chain Goal Opp. Poss. Stopp. Behind Clayton Oliver 71 59.2% 16.9% 22.5% 33.8% 7.0% 0.0% Charlie Spargo 25 56.0% 36.0% 28.0% 32.0% 12.0% 0.0% Lachie Hunter 89 52.8% 28.1% 16.9% 38.2% 9.0% 0.0% Christian Salem 40 52.5% 25.0% 7.5% 45.0% 2.5% 0.0% Kysaiah Pickett 42 50.0% 38.1% 33.3% 33.3% 14.3% 2.4% Alex Neal-Bullen 75 49.3% 24.0% 21.3% 41.3% 6.7% 2.7% Trent Rivers 71 49.3% 23.9% 21.1% 33.8% 12.7% 4.2% Bayley Fritsch 41 48.8% 24.4% 19.5% 34.1% 17.1% 0.0% Christian Petracca 120 48.3% 22.5% 23.3% 31.7% 15.0% 5.0% Judd McVee 23 47.8% 34.8% 34.8% 43.5% 8.7% 0.0% Kade Chandler 44 47.7% 36.4% 20.5% 31.8% 18.2% 2.3% Steven May 34 47.1% 29.4% 5.9% 41.2% 11.8% 0.0% James Jordon 38 44.7% 23.7% 13.2% 42.1% 13.2% 0.0% Jack Viney 118 44.1% 16.1% 20.3% 44.1% 11.0% 0.8% Jake Bowey 38 42.1% 18.4% 10.5% 36.8% 18.4% 2.6% Angus Brayshaw 65 41.5% 15.4% 15.4% 41.5% 16.9% 0.0% Tom Sparrow 62 40.3% 19.4% 17.7% 45.2% 14.5% 0.0% Max Gawn 70 38.6% 10.0% 10.0% 42.9% 12.9% 5.7% Jake Melksham 26 38.5% 15.4% 19.2% 57.7% 3.8% 0.0% Ed Langdon 73 37.0% 12.3% 9.6% 53.4% 8.2% 1.4% Brodie Grundy 33 36.4% 12.1% 3.0% 51.5% 9.1% 3.0% Jake Lever 26 26.9% 15.4% 11.5% 57.7% 15.4% 0.0% Melbourne by Round, 2023 Kicks Retained Not Retained Total Mark/ Free Chain Goal Opp. Poss. Stopp. Behind Round 1 v WB 55 54.5% 29.1% 29.1% 32.7% 12.7% 0.0% Round 2 v Bris 51 49.0% 21.6% 23.5% 29.4% 19.6% 2.0% Round 3 v Syd 52 53.8% 21.2% 26.9% 30.8% 13.5% 1.9% Round 4 v WC 58 55.2% 27.6% 25.9% 36.2% 6.9% 1.7% Round 5 v Ess 41 34.1% 9.8% 14.6% 48.8% 17.1% 0.0% Round 6 v Rich 48 37.5% 27.1% 20.8% 54.2% 8.3% 0.0% Round 7 v NM 57 56.1% 22.8% 26.3% 33.3% 8.8% 1.8% Round 8 v GC 53 34.0% 18.9% 15.1% 54.7% 11.3% 0.0% Round 9 v Haw 62 58.1% 30.6% 19.4% 30.6% 6.5% 4.8% Round 10 v Port 45 51.1% 20.0% 17.8% 42.2% 6.7% 0.0% Round 11 v Frem 53 47.2% 18.9% 15.1% 37.7% 15.1% 0.0% Round 12 v Carl 56 42.9% 25.0% 10.7% 39.3% 16.1% 1.8% Round 13 v Coll 56 41.1% 25.0% 12.5% 42.9% 12.5% 3.6% Round 15 v Geel 51 37.3% 13.7% 11.8% 33.3% 21.6% 7.8% Round 16 v GWS 66 34.8% 7.6% 3.0% 48.5% 16.7% 0.0% Round 17 v St K 42 45.2% 26.2% 26.2% 45.2% 7.1% 2.4% Round 18 v Bris 50 48.0% 26.0% 18.0% 44.0% 8.0% 0.0% Round 19 v Adel 50 56.0% 26.0% 26.0% 40.0% 4.0% 0.0% Round 20 v Rich 63 42.9% 23.8% 22.2% 41.3% 12.7% 3.2% Round 21 v NM 65 44.6% 23.1% 20.0% 43.1% 10.8% 1.5% Round 22 v Carl 40 45.0% 20.0% 17.5% 42.5% 10.0% 2.5% Round 23 v Haw 56 48.2% 26.8% 17.9% 39.3% 10.7% 1.8% Round 24 v Syd 50 42.0% 18.0% 12.0% 44.0% 14.0% 0.0% Round 25 v Coll 61 41.0% 16.4% 9.8% 44.3% 9.8% 4.9% Round 26 v Carl 48 45.8% 18.8% 14.6% 43.8% 8.3% 2.1% Melbourne by Season Kicks Retained Not Retained Total Mark/ Free Chain Goal Opp. Poss. Stopp. Behind 2021 1301 46.9% 23.2% 19.4% 35.3% 14.2% 3.6% 2022 1233 46.5% 21.2% 18.2% 35.3% 15.4% 2.8% 2023 1329 45.9% 21.8% 18.1% 40.7% 11.6% 1.8% Teams, 2023 Kicks Retained Not Retained Total Mark/ Free Chain Goal Opp. Poss. Stopp. Behind Adelaide 1164 49.6% 23.9% 21.1% 34.2% 12.9% 3.4% Essendon 1066 48.6% 22.9% 18.9% 38.9% 10.0% 2.4% Port Adelaide 1337 47.9% 24.2% 18.6% 36.0% 12.8% 3.3% Geelong 1098 47.9% 26.9% 20.7% 37.5% 12.6% 2.0% Greater Western Sydney 1339 47.6% 23.0% 18.1% 37.6% 12.5% 2.3% Brisbane 1241 47.2% 24.4% 20.2% 35.9% 13.8% 3.1% Richmond 1128 46.9% 24.3% 17.8% 38.3% 12.1% 2.7% Collingwood 1203 46.9% 24.9% 21.8% 36.7% 13.5% 3.0% Sydney 1178 46.7% 21.6% 18.6% 38.0% 11.4% 3.9% Melbourne 1329 45.9% 21.8% 18.1% 40.7% 11.6% 1.8% Western Bulldogs 1173 45.4% 22.7% 17.9% 37.4% 14.2% 2.9% Fremantle 1063 44.5% 22.9% 18.8% 39.0% 14.2% 2.3% Carlton 1281 44.3% 23.1% 19.2% 37.5% 14.5% 3.7% Gold Coast 1149 44.3% 20.6% 18.7% 39.6% 13.0% 3.1% St Kilda 1180 44.0% 20.2% 16.4% 44.2% 10.3% 1.4% West Coast 926 43.7% 21.5% 16.4% 39.2% 14.6% 2.5% Hawthorn 1053 43.2% 22.2% 17.1% 40.5% 13.3% 3.0% North Melbourne 1004 43.0% 20.1% 17.9% 41.6% 12.8% 2.5% Top 20 AFL players (50+ kicks), 2023 Kicks Retained Not Retained Total Mark/ Free Chain Goal Opp. Poss. Stopp. Behind Gryan Miers (Geel) 84 61.9% 45.2% 36.9% 28.6% 9.5% 0.0% Darcy Byrne-Jones (Port) 51 60.8% 45.1% 21.6% 21.6% 17.6% 0.0% Dayne Zorko (Bris) 66 60.6% 34.8% 22.7% 24.2% 10.6% 4.5% Jack Ross (Rich) 52 59.6% 32.7% 28.8% 34.6% 3.8% 1.9% Clayton Oliver (Melb) 71 59.2% 16.9% 22.5% 33.8% 7.0% 0.0% Jason Horne-Francis (Port) 77 58.4% 27.3% 22.1% 32.5% 7.8% 1.3% Dion Prestia (Rich) 61 57.4% 27.9% 21.3% 26.2% 16.4% 0.0% Willem Drew (Port) 82 57.3% 24.4% 22.0% 31.7% 11.0% 0.0% Brayden Maynard (Coll) 56 57.1% 32.1% 19.6% 32.1% 7.1% 3.6% Scott Pendlebury (Coll) 76 56.6% 31.6% 28.9% 32.9% 10.5% 0.0% Zach Merrett (Ess) 100 56.0% 30.0% 20.0% 33.0% 10.0% 1.0% Brent Daniels (GWS) 61 55.7% 26.2% 21.3% 29.5% 11.5% 3.3% Kieren Briggs (GWS) 54 55.6% 14.8% 22.2% 29.6% 13.0% 1.9% Nic Martin (Ess) 58 55.2% 36.2% 25.9% 37.9% 6.9% 0.0% Patrick Dangerfield (Geel) 100 55.0% 31.0% 23.0% 34.0% 11.0% 0.0% Jordan Dawson (Adel) 131 55.0% 29.0% 26.0% 31.3% 9.2% 4.6% Hugh McCluggage (Bris) 102 54.9% 30.4% 19.6% 30.4% 13.7% 1.0% Ben Keays (Adel) 64 54.7% 21.9% 34.4% 31.2% 12.5% 1.6% Archie Perkins (Ess) 72 54.2% 20.8% 30.6% 31.9% 9.7% 4.2% Cam Rayner (Bris) 67 53.7% 35.8% 25.4% 31.3% 11.9% 3.0%

Here are the official player ratings with a breakdown by quarter.

Melbourne v Carlton (Semi Finals, 2023) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20232601 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 66.3 71.7 -5.4 Kicking Efficiency 57.9 65.4 -7.5 Metres Gained 6013 6226 -213 Inside 50s 53 52 +1 Shots At Goal 28 21 +7 Shots Per Inside 50 52.8 40.4 +12.4 Contested Possessions 153 137 +16 Ground Ball Gets 110 86 +24 Intercepts 92 84 +8 Intercept Marks 27 22 +5 Centre Clearances 8 13 -5 Stoppage Clearances 28 20 +8 Contested Marks 15 12 +3 Marks Inside 50 10 9 +1 Hitouts 38 29 +9 Hitouts To Advantage 7 8 -1 Tackles 49 64 -15 Tackles Inside 50 10 8 +2 Def One On One Loss % 18.2 27.3 -9.1 Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 187 195 2 172 204 3 166 158 4 187 196 Match 178 189 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average* Clayton Oliver 28 72 60.7 Alex Neal-Bullen 26 64 46.5 Tom Sparrow 25 57 44.2 Christian Salem 17 39 31.6 Charlie Spargo 13 39 26.0 Jack Viney 15 38 54.8 Kade Chandler 12 32 30.4 James Jordon 14 28 24.2 Joel Smith 14 28 19.9 Tom McDonald 13 26 24.9 Christian Petracca 12 23 45.0 Kysaiah Pickett 12 22 41.4 Lachie Hunter 11 22 23.0 Ed Langdon 13 19 27.5 Trent Rivers 12 19 22.9 Adam Tomlinson 8 19 14.7 Max Gawn 10 16 21.8 Bayley Fritsch 7 14 18.7 Judd McVee 7 13 17.8 Jake Bowey 4 9 21.5 Jake Lever 6 8 14.6 Steven May 2 5 14.3 Josh Schache 0 0 8.7 * Pressure points for rounds 4 and 6 have not been able to be sourced from the Herald Sun. Pressure points for these matches have been estimated from the number of pressure acts for each player. Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 44% 56% 2 47% 53% 3 63% 37% 4 59% 41% Match 55% 45% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Score sources highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Category For Against Diff G B T G B T Kick-in 0 1 1 0 1 1 +0 Centre Bounce 1 0 6 3 0 18 -12 Stoppage (Other) 4 3 27 2 0 12 +15 Turnover 4 13 37 6 6 42 -5 Category For Against Match Season Match Season Kick-in 1 2.4 1 2.2 Centre Bounce 6 10.9 18 9.0 Stoppage (Other) 27 23.6 12 19.4 Turnover 37 51.2 42 41.1 Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Carlton. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season Kick-in D50 1 2.4 1 2.2 Centre Bounce Centre 6 10.9 18 9.0 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 0.5 0 1.8 Stoppage (Other) Centre 7 2.8 0 1.1 Stoppage (Other) Wing 12 12.2 12 6.6 Stoppage (Other) F50 8 8.0 0 9.9 Turnover D50 7 11.3 18 7.0 Turnover Centre 1 7.2 1 6.2 Turnover Wing 26 26.4 21 20.6 Turnover F50 3 6.3 2 7.3 Region For Against Match Season Match Season D50 8 14.2 19 11.0 Centre 14 21.0 19 16.4 Wing 38 38.6 33 27.2 F50 11 14.4 2 17.2 Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season 24 32.8 38 24.8 Shots at goal Team Shots G B T Acc. General Play Melbourne 15 4 9 33 26.7 Carlton 8 3 2 20 37.5 Set Position Melbourne 13 5 6 36 38.5 Carlton 13 8 4 52 61.5 Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2023 % 2022 % Clayton Oliver 23 96 81.4 86.5 Max Gawn 21 88 64.9 65.5 Jack Viney 20 83 72.1 74.6 Christian Petracca 13 54 61.1 74.6 Tom Sparrow 11 46 44.9 32.2 James Jordon 3 12 26.9 0.2 Tom McDonald 3 12 5.7 0.0 Kysaiah Pickett 2 8 11.2 1.3 Trent Rivers 0 0 3.0 0.0 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 2.1 3.5 Lachie Hunter 0 0 0.2 0.0 Josh Schache 0 0 0.0 13.8 Brodie Grundy 54.4 83.7 Angus Brayshaw 35.3 16.0 James Harmes 26.7 14.6 Jacob van Rooyen 7.6 Harrison Petty 0.7 0.0 Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2023 % 2022 % Max Gawn 65 81 57.5 57.8 Tom McDonald 10 12 9.3 7.0 Christian Petracca 4 5 0.4 0.1 Joel Smith 1 1 0.9 0.0 Josh Schache 0 0 4.1 13.4 Clayton Oliver 0 0 0.1 0.0 Steven May 0 0 0.0 0.0 Tom Sparrow 0 0 0.0 0.0 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0.0 0.0 Brodie Grundy 47.7 77.4 Jacob van Rooyen 13.1 Ben Brown 2.3 3.6 Harrison Petty 2.0 0.0 Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2023) To Adv. % (2022) Max Gawn 65 36 6 30.1 33.6 Christian Petracca 4 1 1 100.0 Tom McDonald 10 1 0 20.0 33.3 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0 Joel Smith 1 0 0 0.0 Josh Schache 0 0 0 0.0 33.3 Jacob van Rooyen 31.1 Brodie Grundy 30.4 30.2 Harrison Petty 25.0 Ben Brown 0.0 14.3 Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Marc Pittonet 64 21 4 Tom De Koning 20 8 4 Expected scores (Champion Data) 82 - 61 😭

Interestingly, when you account for the difference in game time for Brayshaw and Jordon, their average pressure points per 100% game time is very similar. Player M TOG Pressure Acts Per 100% TOG Pressure Points Per 100% TOG Highest Pressure Clayton Oliver 14 83.5 26.6 31.9 59.8 71.7 106 James Harmes 9 52.7 17.8 33.8 37.6 71.3 82 Jack Viney 23 78.8 24.0 30.5 55.5 70.5 98 Alex Neal-Bullen 24 76.7 20.9 27.2 45.8 59.7 64 Tom Sparrow 22 73.9 20.2 27.4 43.6 59.0 71 Christian Petracca 24 83.8 21.8 26.0 45.9 54.8 74 Kysaiah Pickett 22 82.8 19.7 23.8 42.3 51.1 65 Angus Brayshaw 24 76.8 15.5 20.1 34.2 44.5 70 James Jordon 17 54.7 11.9 21.7 24.0 43.8 58 Bailey Laurie 5 39.4 8.2 20.8 16.6 42.2 31 Kade Chandler 22 72.6 14.1 19.4 30.3 41.8 49 Charlie Spargo 13 63.9 11.3 17.7 24.9 39.0 50 Brodie Grundy 17 69.9 11.1 15.8 26.1 37.3 39 Christian Salem 15 83.4 13.5 16.2 31.1 37.3 44 Taj Woewodin 4 66.2 12.2 18.5 23.0 34.7 28 Tom McDonald 7 75.4 12.3 16.3 24.8 32.9 30 Ed Langdon 24 91.0 14.4 15.8 27.9 30.6 50 Trent Rivers 24 77.1 10.5 13.6 23.1 29.9 38 Jake Bowey 22 73.8 9.8 13.2 22.0 29.8 39 Jacob van Rooyen 20 74.0 9.7 13.1 22.1 29.8 37 Joel Smith 13 64.8 8.0 12.4 19.3 29.8 43 Josh Schache 2 46.5 6.0 12.9 13.0 28.0 21 Max Gawn 21 80.8 9.8 12.1 22.1 27.4 37 Lachie Hunter 23 91.1 11.7 12.8 23.1 25.3 35 Harrison Petty 14 77.9 8.9 11.4 19.7 25.3 28 Jake Melksham 13 69.7 7.6 10.9 16.5 23.6 28 Bayley Fritsch 16 81.9 9.2 11.3 19.0 23.2 37 Judd McVee 24 78.2 8.4 10.8 18.0 23.1 32 Daniel Turner 2 81.0 6.0 7.4 18.0 22.2 21 Ben Brown 7 74.4 6.1 8.3 12.3 16.5 19 Adam Tomlinson 8 92.1 5.8 6.2 14.1 15.3 23 Jake Lever 23 98.4 7.6 7.7 14.9 15.1 32 Steven May 22 97.5 6.1 6.3 14.7 15.1 40 Michael Hibberd 12 78.5 4.8 6.2 10.5 13.4 17

It's the points we concede on average. I did include a note under the chain start region subheading to that effect but it may not be clear enough.

It's the player's predicted rating, which is probably clearer than "estimated" so I could rename it! The predicted rating for a player is a weighted average of the player's player rating in previous matches (maximum of last 75 matches, and maximum of last four seasons) weighted towards more recent matches and more recent seasons. A match 75 matches ago or four seasons ago will not contribute much to the predicted rating - it is weighted much more towards matches in the current season. I'd say the main issue with it is how I deal with subs (players previously subbed off or subbed on, thereby reducing game time, and the named sub in the current game who would be expected to have a lower player rating). I do take into account time on ground in the weighting of past matches, but I could probably improve the way I do it.

Melbourne v Collingwood (Finals Week 1, 2023) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20232501 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 66.2 65.2 +1.0 Kicking Efficiency 59.0 63.2 -4.2 Metres Gained 6106 5704 +402 Inside 50s 69 37 +32 Shots At Goal 23 15 +8 Shots Per Inside 50 33.3 40.5 -7.2 Contested Possessions 153 139 +14 Ground Ball Gets 101 96 +5 Intercepts 80 84 -4 Intercept Marks 17 19 -2 Centre Clearances 12 7 +5 Stoppage Clearances 32 33 -1 Contested Marks 15 9 +6 Marks Inside 50 9 8 +1 Hitouts 33 48 -15 Hitouts To Advantage 11 11 +0 Tackles 61 62 -1 Tackles Inside 50 13 9 +4 Def One On One Loss % 15.8 42.9 -27.1 Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 180 194 2 172 177 3 182 205 4 176 192 Match 178 192 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average* Clayton Oliver 26 61 59.8 Kysaiah Pickett 26 54 42.3 Alex Neal-Bullen 24 48 45.8 Christian Petracca 25 45 45.9 Tom Sparrow 16 38 43.6 Max Gawn 14 32 22.1 Jack Viney 16 31 55.5 Christian Salem 10 30 31.1 Bailey Laurie 13 27 16.6 Bayley Fritsch 9 22 19.0 Steven May 9 21 14.7 Trent Rivers 9 20 23.1 Jacob van Rooyen 8 20 22.1 Jake Bowey 9 20 22.0 Tom McDonald 11 19 24.8 Joel Smith 9 18 19.3 Ed Langdon 8 17 27.9 Judd McVee 10 16 18.0 Lachie Hunter 6 10 23.1 Jake Lever 5 10 14.9 Michael Hibberd 4 10 10.5 Kade Chandler 4 8 30.3 Angus Brayshaw 2 5 34.2 * Pressure points for rounds 4 and 6 have not been able to be sourced from the Herald Sun. Pressure points for these matches have been estimated from the number of pressure acts for each player. Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 45% 55% 2 63% 37% 3 67% 33% 4 75% 25% Match 61% 39% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Score sources highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Category For Against Diff G B T G B T Kick-in 0 1 1 0 0 0 +1 Centre Bounce 2 1 13 3 0 18 -5 Stoppage (Other) 2 2 14 0 2 2 +12 Turnover 3 7 25 6 4 40 -15 Category For Against Match Season Match Season Kick-in 1 2.4 0 2.3 Centre Bounce 13 11.1 18 8.7 Stoppage (Other) 14 23.4 2 19.7 Turnover 25 51.8 40 41.0 Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Collingwood. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season Kick-in D50 1 2.4 0 2.3 Centre Bounce Centre 13 11.1 18 8.7 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 0.5 0 1.9 Stoppage (Other) Centre 1 2.6 0 1.1 Stoppage (Other) Wing 7 12.2 1 6.4 Stoppage (Other) F50 6 8.0 1 10.3 Turnover D50 2 11.5 13 6.5 Turnover Centre 0 7.5 13 6.5 Turnover Wing 22 26.4 13 20.6 Turnover F50 1 6.5 1 7.5 Region For Against Match Season Match Season D50 3 14.5 13 10.7 Centre 14 21.2 31 16.2 Wing 29 38.6 14 27.0 F50 7 14.5 2 17.8 Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season 16 33.1 26 24.2 Shots at goal Team Shots G B T Acc. General Play Melbourne 9 3 3 21 33.3 Collingwood 4 2 2 14 50.0 Set Position Melbourne 14 4 5 29 28.6 Collingwood 11 7 3 45 63.6 Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2023 % 2022 % Max Gawn 19 95 63.9 65.5 Clayton Oliver 18 90 80.5 86.5 Jack Viney 15 75 71.7 74.6 Christian Petracca 15 75 61.4 74.6 Tom Sparrow 9 45 44.9 32.2 Angus Brayshaw 2 10 35.3 16.0 Kysaiah Pickett 1 5 11.3 1.3 Jacob van Rooyen 1 5 7.6 Tom McDonald 0 0 4.8 0.0 Trent Rivers 0 0 3.1 0.0 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 2.2 3.5 Lachie Hunter 0 0 0.2 0.0 Brodie Grundy 54.4 83.7 James Jordon 27.6 0.2 James Harmes 26.7 14.6 Harrison Petty 0.7 0.0 Josh Schache 0.0 13.8 Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2023 % 2022 % Max Gawn 79 77 56.5 57.8 Jacob van Rooyen 15 15 13.1 Tom McDonald 9 9 8.9 7.0 Joel Smith 0 0 0.9 0.0 Christian Petracca 0 0 0.2 0.1 Clayton Oliver 0 0 0.1 0.0 Steven May 0 0 0.1 0.0 Tom Sparrow 0 0 0.1 0.0 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0.0 0.0 Brodie Grundy 47.7 77.4 Josh Schache 6.2 13.4 Ben Brown 2.3 3.6 Harrison Petty 2.0 0.0 Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2023) To Adv. % (2022) Max Gawn 79 31 11 31.0 33.6 Jacob van Rooyen 15 1 0 31.1 Tom McDonald 9 1 0 22.2 33.3 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0 Joel Smith 0 0 0 0.0 Brodie Grundy 30.4 30.2 Harrison Petty 25.0 Ben Brown 0.0 14.3 Josh Schache 0.0 33.3 Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Mason Cox 66 34 6 Darcy Cameron 34 14 5 Daniel McStay 3 0 0 Expected Scores (Champion Data) 70 - 55

Coaches Votes for Melbourne players, 2023 https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html Votes Matches Polled Matches Christian Petracca 98 18 23 Jack Viney 65 12 22 Max Gawn 42 8 20 Clayton Oliver 40 9 13 Jake Lever 27 5 22 Steven May 26 4 21 Angus Brayshaw 24 6 23 Kysaiah Pickett 23 4 21 Brodie Grundy 12 2 17 Trent Rivers 12 2 23 Jake Melksham 11 2 13 Ed Langdon 10 2 23 Harrison Petty 8 1 14 Bayley Fritsch 7 2 15 Kade Chandler 6 2 21 Lachie Hunter 5 3 22 Christian Salem 4 1 14 Michael Hibberd 4 1 11 Tom McDonald 2 1 6 Alex Neal-Bullen 1 1 23 Jake Bowey 1 1 21 Round-by-round votes Votes 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Christian Petracca 98 5 • 7 9 1 1 10 • 10 • 8 10 1 5 2 7 8 • 2 3 1 • 8 Jack Viney 65 • • • • 6 • • 7 • • • 10 3 9 • 1 4 6 9 3 2 5 Max Gawn 42 5 • 3 • 3 • • 2 • 2 • • • 10 7 10 • • • • Clayton Oliver 40 2 1 9 8 • 2 7 7 2 2 • • • Jake Lever 27 9 2 • • • • • • • • 5 • 1 • • • • • • • 10 • Steven May 26 • • • • • • 1 • • 8 7 • • 10 • • • • • • • Angus Brayshaw 24 • • • • • • 5 • • • 2 • • • • 1 • 5 • 9 2 • • Kysaiah Pickett 23 9 • • • 3 • • • • • • • • • • 7 • 4 • • • Brodie Grundy 12 • • 6 6 • • • • • • • • • • • • • Trent Rivers 12 • • • • • • • • 6 • • • • • • • • • • • • 6 • Jake Melksham 11 • • • • • • 3 • • • • 8 • Ed Langdon 10 • • 6 • • • • • • • • 4 • • • • • • • • • • • Harrison Petty 8 • • • • • • • • • • • • 8 • Bayley Fritsch 7 • • • • • • • • • • • 2 • • 5 Kade Chandler 6 • • 1 • • • 5 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Lachie Hunter 5 • • 1 • • • • • • 2 • • • 2 • • • • • • • • Christian Salem 4 • • • 4 • • • • • • • • • • Michael Hibberd 4 • • 4 • • • • • • • • Tom McDonald 2 • • 2 • • • Alex Neal-Bullen 1 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 1 • • • Jake Bowey 1 • • • • • • • • • • • • 1 • • • • • • • •