old55

About to get very interesting up there: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-08/coronavirus-sydney-cases-move-from-east-to-west/100275722 "We're trying damned hard at the moment to make sure that we can use every effort to suppress that virus, and right now is a critical time," Health Minister Brad Hazzard said yesterday. "If the individuals that we need don't hear Dr Chant's message and don't respond, then at some point we're going to move to a stage where we're going to have to accept that the virus has a life which will continue in the community."

Brown is a welcome addition because our conversion has been down. But the real issue is centre clearances. If Wines, Boak and Drew touch us up in centre clearances like GWS did then we won't win. Drew appears to be the defensive option - his tackle numbers are high but he can win his own clearances. I think we need a different mix from Petracca, Oliver and Viney this week and I would send Harmes to one of Wines or Boak. Drew probably goes to Petracca or Oliver. That leaves say Wines and Oliver head to head. If we can neutralise the centre clearance disparity we can win.

Well it's all gone horribly wrong in Gladlands now and they're talking about giving up and going full UK with virus - except without the vaccine coverage. Expect total lockdown of NSW from all other states for the foreseeable future.

If May, Lever or Petty pull up sore in the warm up and can't play then we need cover in the emergencies. M.Brown, Tomlinson and Hore are all injured and Bradtke is playing CHB for Casey. It makes sense to take Smith as one of four emergencies - the only other feasible options would be Majak and he's been rucking or Weid and move TMac back but that's out there too. So Smith, Daw or Weid - take your pick ... If May, Lever or Petty pull up sore in the warm up and can't play and we didn't take cover in the emergencies there would be uproar here!

I looked at the Clearances across the season: Opponent Result CentreClearances TotalClearances Freo W 10-12 27-35 St.K W 14-11 34-34 GWS W 13-15 45-37 Geel W 13-10 45-35 Haw W 12-15 34-35 Rich W 10-9 37-32 NM W 14-15 35-40 Syd W 4-17 37-39 Carl W 12-11 33-48 Adel L 18-13 45-22 Dogs W 13-11 27-36 Lions W 11-17 37-35 Pies L 9-14 24-34 Ess W 9-9 32-36 GWS L 6-11 24-39 The data: when we lose CCL and overall CL by a significant amount we lost the match against Collingwood and GWS. however we smashed Adelaide in both by the biggest margin in the season but lost the match Sydney smashed us 4-17 in CCL but we evened CL 37-39 and won Lions won CCL 11-17 but we evened CL 37-35 and won We broke even with Freo, Carlton and the Dogs in CCL but clearly lost CL and won What conclusions: If we lose both by a significant amount we're probably going to lose - Collingwood, GWS but winning both by a significant amount doesn't automatically mean a win - Adelaide lose CCL significantly but break even overall and we won - Syd, Brisbane break even in CCL but significantly lose overall CL and we won - Freo, Dogs, Carlton there's no case where we clearly won CCL but lost or broke even in overall CL.

We need to win against Port to make top 4 and I think we can do it.

The last two weeks we have scored 16.27 to 17.19 from 112 to 105 i50s - we have got to get better in this area and B.Brown can make a difference there. The major change we need to make is improve centre clearance - whether this is personnel or set-up or both, I'm not sure. But we won't win the flag if the ball starts in our D50 after a majority of centre bounces. We should be better with Gawn, Oliver, Petracca, Viney, Harmes etc available. The challenge is there for Goodwin and Yze ...

No. West Coast and Richmond on the other hand ...

It was a very disappointing loss and we've burnt any buffer we had for top 2 and even top 4. We definitely stepped up in the second half - we were down 60-69 in contested at half time and finished 138-131 so went 78-62 in the second half and were down something like 24-31 inside 50s at half time and finished 56-55 so went 32-24 in the second half. But the real problem is we were under water in clearances at half-time and went further south finishing 24-39 and 6-11 for centre clearances. We burnt a lot of opportunities in the last quarter and a tall marking target in BB would definitely have helped. TMac got up the ground and marked well and Fritsch was great in the aerial contest forward, but Max and LJ didn't really offer anything when down there. But I never thought we would win because even if we converted one of those relatively straightforward chances in the last quarter, the ball was going back to the middle and 2 times out of 3 it was going straight into the Giants forward 50. I've heard some arguments about quality of our clearance vs poor quality opposition clearances - but for a team that plays "territory football" we just cannot afford to be smashed in the centre clearance like that with 6-6-6. Sure GWS have a strong midfield but so do Port and the Dogs coming up. Seriously - the back 7 should sue the midfield for the pressure they put on them - Captain and VC in there.

Only Gold Coast and Adelaide are putting out younger teams than us this round.

Agree - absolutely love the GWS song.

Cmon Suns - one goal

Dropping Fritsch is a long bow - but he's not in your best forward line set-up. OK ...

I hardly ever bet but I do keep an eye out for enticing odds. I got LJ at $26 at the start of the year when Rowell was at some stupid short price and it was daylight to the next batch. Early payout @ $7.50 now - I'm going to hang in. I think Luke's best is yet to come. Should have eaten my own Pollyanna dog food and gone LJ into Demon's flag at something like $600 if it was allowed ...

I think Fritsch is like Melksham and he's playing the medium deep-forward role Melksham played late in 2018 with TMac and Weid as key forwards. But I think we changed our structure to be more defensively oriented now. We played Melksham in a forward-mid role rather than deep forward earlier in the year, but he and Jones have been essentially been replaced by Harmes and Sparrow. I think it's possible the FD might rate Fritsch for this role up the ground, particularly like Melksham - the strength of their delivery inside 50. I could see a scenario where it's BB directly for Fritsch but it would also be possible that it's BB for Fritsch who moves upfield and one of Harmes or Sparrow goes out. What I don't see its BB, TMac, Fritsch in his current role and one less mid-forward. Or maybe they'll give the current personnel another week - but Fritsch would need to deliver. Interesting times ...

It's not dislike of Fritsch at all, he's a talented player who has been important in wins this year. But if you want Brown in someone has to give and I think Brown for Fritsch and retain Sparrow is the preferable outcome. It's really Fritsch vs Sparrow. I think we need the midfield and forward pressure.

But that hurts our ability to run to defend and hurts our defensive abilty inside 50. Brown for Fritsch increases our contested marking capability inside 50 (Fritsch has 6 total for the season) and doesn't reduce our defensive capability. Sparrow was good against Essendon.

Is that similar to your predictions that Goodwin will be sacked by round 8 and Essendon will beat us by 37 points?

Sounds a bit like B.Brown's first year with us is a bit like S.May's

Brisbane and the Dogs just had glamour wins against apparent contenders - it's no surprise they're flavour of the month.

The weather looks poor on Saturday. Definitely not time for a tall in for a small out. Could well be no change.

Essendon - roadkill in the MFC 2021 rear vision mirror now.

How about Nev's goal and the players getting around him!

Look I wouldn't be pumping that up too much - it was against us and 8th vs 5th

Agree and we've effectively got an 9 week finals campaign starting with the R20 clash vs the Dogs (Dogs, Eagles, Crows, Cats, bye, finals) so we've got just 4 weeks to get set.