Great Northern Summer

Richmond lost John Northey to Brisbane Bears. Geelong lost Garfield Ayres to Adelaide.

I suspect McDonald will come into the seniors this week either in the 22 or as sub. Given the game is a dead rubber, the match committee will want to see whether he’s up to playing finals. Not sure Tomlinson will be dropped from the seniors either, yet.

From memory 2005 and 2006 were opposites from each other. Swans lost the QF but won the flag in 2005, vice versa in 2006. Let me guess the three though in that time period… Tigers lost in 2020 to the Bears. Hawks lost to the Eagles in 2015. Cats lost to the Saints in 2009.

Suspect you may have cut and pasted that post from last week… unless you expect Adelaide to launch and succeed in Supreme Court proceedings overturning the Sydney loss. Adelaide ain’t making a semi final let alone the finals. I totally agree with your point and logic though. St Kilda probably replace Adelaide though in your comment…

Yep spot on. He only plays again this year if Gawn goes down injured. He’ll 100% seek a trade at season’s end which will be granted.

I don’t get the point of this post at all. Maybe I’m missing something.

Who have we held over from the Casey game? Looks like Schache and Jordan. Guessing Jordan will be the sub although maybe Schache has he can play forward and back and even ruck

McDonald will definitely be back next week if he maintains his performance today for the rest of the game. Waiting to be shot down but I still can’t believe Dunstan hasn’t been picked for one single game all season.

Better option than Jordan, who would have been the alternative and is totally out of form, or Spargo, who doesn’t get much of it either despite being a lot more experienced

1991? Gosh, that’s a 32 year old grudge 😂

The traditionalists here will be disappointed that we will most likely have to wear our clash royal blue jumper throughout almost all finals we play (aside from the Semi Final if we lose the Qualifying Final, and the Preliminary Final if we win the Qualifying Final) unless some major finals upsets occur (i.e. teams outside the Top 4 progressing through). Yep, we’d be wearing it in the Grand Final without question too if we got that far.

It is what it is in the end. Any of the top 5 can realistically beat anyone on their day. Our key now is to make sure our game plan is working smoothly, players are in form and we have no more serious injuries (bit of luck needed there). Whoever we end up playing in the Qualifying Final, and where, so be it, we can win it.

Perhaps, but some would say we were lucky in a couple of close ones we won too, for instance, against the Lions and perhaps the Suns. Whereas bitterly unlucky against Carlton and Port (where dubious frees and marks from bump balls got them over the line in the end)

Not sure it’ll matter, if we beat Hawthorn this week, it won’t matter whether we win or lose next week, we will still finish 4th. Only way of changing that is if Lions magically lose next week or Port loses, all unlikely outcomes.

Further to my last post, the way Collingwood are playing tonight, they’re just as likely to lose to Essendon next week (who always rise to the occasion of that matchup) which would mean Brisbane would finish 1st. Finishing 4th and playing them first up, then Carlton if we lost, a disaster

There are pros and cons with whoever wins. If Brisbane win and Port wins too, we likely stay in 4th and play Collingwood in a Qualifying Final at home. I’d back us any day of the week to beat them, especially without Daicos and an underdone Moore. Collingwood win tonight, and we would rely on Port dropping a game to finish 2nd (which will have to be this week because Richmond has given up), which is unlikely, and more likely to lead to a 3rd place finish. If we finish 4th, whilst I think it’s our best chance to win the Qualifying Final, it’s also problematic if we lost that game as we’d likely play Carlton in a semi, which won’t be straightforward, and then a Preliminary Final in either Adelaide or Brisbane. The grounds don’t worry me, it’s more the umpires getting influenced by home fans (as we saw in Adelaide earlier this season). Finishing 3rd might mean we have to travel, but even if we lost that Qualifying Final, we’d play the winner of 6 v 7 which you’d back us to win (teams outside the top 5 fall away dramatically) and then probably Collingwood in a Preliminary Final.

Not bad at all at this time of year. Lions have lost most of their finals at the Gabba over the past five seasons, all games being under lights at night. Our win last year was at night, we barely fumbled all night - compare that to Round 2 this season - it’s as if the games took place at two different locations.

Not necessarily. Brisbane has an incredible record at the Gabba over the last 5 or so years. However, I think you’ll find over that period they’ve almost been unbeaten in the first half to two-thirds of the season, and most of their few losses have come at the end of the season. My theory behind this is the weather/ground conditions. For that first half to two-thirds of the season, the ground is very dewy and the ball can be like a cake of soap. I saw it first-hand at the ground in Round 2. We continuously fumbled whilst they were clean, which was the difference between the teams (before lights went out anyway). Because they play and train regularly in those conditions, they’re far more adapted. It’s also a reason why the GC tend to do alright at home at the start of most seasons before fading away. The condition of the Gabba now, given the lack of humidity and dry heat over winter in South-East QLD, means the Gabba is an easier ground to play at for Vic clubs, more similar to their home conditions. This is why the Lions finals record at the Gabba isn’t great and why they lose games later in the year there generally (i.e. like to us last year). I wouldn’t be any less confident playing Brisbane in Brisbane in September than Port in Adelaide.

Finishing 4th could well be our best finishing spot. A game at home against Collingwood without Daicos and Moore underdone, I would definitely back us in. We win that, we get a week off and host Lions or Port at the MCG in a preliminary final. Sounds the best path to me. I’m saying that, the loser of a Collingwood v Melbourne (1 v 4) clash could have difficulties, as they’ll likely play Carlton at the MCG in a semi, and if they win that, Lions or Port interstate.

100% agree now. Probably good to see the Lions beat Collingwood next week just to dent Collingwood’s confidence and form further, and Port winning at least the same number as us after today. We will beat Collingwood in a qualifying final at the MCG. We would be underdogs in the other games. If we did finish 4th, the loser of that match (1st v 4th) will probably end up playing Carlton at the MCG the following week. Still would prefer that situation as I’m confident we’d beat Collingwood.

I suspect that unless Grundy performs well over the next fortnight or so (that is, provides a contest and allows the other forwards to do their thing and doesn’t get beaten), the ultimate plan is to bring TMac back into the side after a few weeks getting match fitness for Casey. TMac might not be what he was, but he always provides a contest, rarely gets out marked, has a good motor, is generally a reliable kick for goal and can help Gawn out with a bit of ruckwork (especially in the forward line, thus relieving Van Rooyen of it). I don’t think we’ll see Schache wearing our colours again, nor most likely Brown (although he is contracted for next season, they’ll look to pay him out to retire).

Yep same here in Toulouse. Started working at end of the quarter.

You mean an administrative Masterclass. It hasn’t been signed yet and may not even be presented for signing… Port will be lucky to win 2 of its last 4 games and will go out in straight sets, mark my words.

Look at it from another perspective… Freo still plays both Brisbane and Port at home this year. If we continue winning, Freo coming into some sort of form could help nudge us into 2nd spot and a home qualifying final.

Not if 2nd is still a possibility then