ChaserJ

Article in the Age confirms the offer was 46 + 54. Probably trying to soften us up for pick 33, but we're holding out for 25. Wonder if the future pick they'll get for Stephens from Roos will play a role in the Adams/Grundy Swans stand off. They also say: "Melbourne are closing in on securing a second top draft pick to potentially make a plunge for one of the most sought after players at the top of the draft. Melbourne have tempted Gold Coast with pick 14 and second round draft picks in exchange for pick 11. Two industry sources said Melbourne were eager to get pick 11 to bracket with their existing first pick now at six (tied to Fremantle’s finish) to make a play for one of top few draft picks." https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/kangaroos-land-high-draft-pick-for-ben-mckay-won-t-off-load-it-for-no-1-selection-20231010-p5eb80.html

We really made out like bandits on this one.

Curtin moves well and has a pretty good left foot kick on him. O’Sullivan uses it well too, but would we go for Curtin & O’Sullivan?

2 first rounders with a second rounder going back to Melbourne. That pick ended up being…Harrison Petty.

Will be some time coming. Unless the contracts get renegotiated, could be a veeeery long time. As it stands, the current contract is so heavily lopsided in AFLs favour, it’ll tank the Tassie economy.

That pick probably gets the Fullarton deal done (Lions likely happy to accrue picks for the next Aschroft).

Oh well, future third got it done

In reality, one of their third round picks probably gets it done. Wonder if we could do Harmes and 41 for 39 & 52? 52 would be fodder for a Brown bid match.

Not from the media. Someone on social media speculated that the Swans offered up pick 46 flat. That’d be borderline offensive as an opening offer. Wonder if they’d put the same pick on the table for Taylor Adams?

Apparently the Dees have knocked back Swans opening offer for Grundy.

Not speculated on at this stage.

Sam Edmund & Morris saying Harmes is a good chance to be at the Dogs by the end of the day.

McKercher could get through if North go with Sanders at pick 3/4. Very good chance if McKay compensation doesn’t come in at band 1.

McGowan only outlines that we are a chance (rather than favourites), he does detail that band 1 compensation for McKay complicates the pathway, but thinks we have a shot if we can secure pick 10 from GC (have to beat Kangas for that pick) if Bulldogs complete the trade for pick 4: 'In this scenario, Melbourne’s offer would likely be 13, 25 and 33 for 10 (and likely something coming back next year), which would deliver the Suns more than 1100 extra draft points. Melbourne’s free agency compensation (pick 39) for Sydney-bound midfielder James Jordon offers another option.'

Not formally. Still expected though.

Marc McGowan going through the 4 clubs that could put together a deal for Reid, he has us in the mix and outlines scenarios where we could put together a good enough trade package: https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/he-s-the-no-1-draft-pick-here-s-how-your-club-can-get-its-hands-on-him-20231002-p5e93t.html

Reid won't test as well, Watson as well. Both had late season injuries. Not bad enough to keep them out of CTL finals games, but not worth pushing through in Combine.

Stepping this out a little, if we nabbed 2 & 3, we could probably still trade for Reid whilst retaining p3. Could a Reid/Duursma double be on the wish list?

Gee @Redleg, you might have been on to something without even realising. You’ve gone and manifested Clarry trade rumours!

From the media, yes. We’re generally rated a premiership contender with a generational list that has a deficiency in one area of the ground. I don’t necessarily prescribe to the theory that we don’t already have the talent in place to address this, but the consistent narrative will be ‘will Melbourne try and fix the obvious problem, or stubbornly stick with what they have already tried’.

Remember hearing the same thing. I get why they're making the link, but I don't get why we'd pursue Lobb whilst ignoring Chol. Whatever flaws exist in Chols game, Lobb has the same in spades (echo that for strengths). From a long game perspective, if it's true that having Lobb on the books is making it difficult for Dogs to re-sign Naughton, Ugle-Hagan,etc., I'm happily letting them struggle and see if Naughton can be lured over as a FA in 12 months time. There's no one else taking Lobb and his contract off their books, they can keep and we should have a crack at picking off bigger targets from their list. Decent odds on it being reasonably messy at the Dogs this time next year.

And also pick 4 being traded away from GC.

Not against it (particularly if p5 is not part of the deal), McKay one of the few key forwards that has troubled Steven May in direct match ups in recent years. May has owned Charlie, but McKay’s height and deceptive mobility has challenged Maysie. The only reason there’s any possibility of Carlton moving McKay on is that his kicking has been inconsistent, if he’s a dead eye, Blues would not be entertaining any trade.

Apparently we’re keeping an eye on Bulldogs pick 10, which is widely reported to be going to GC. We’ve also been linked with a future 1st from Port (don’t think both of these could happen concurrently). If either eventuates, we could easily send Blues a couple of first rounders for McKay whilst retaining pick 5.

Would be massive. Everyone has been speculating on what triggers band 1 compo, and I think if that number from Essendon is remotely accurate (the Age gave an approximate of 750k a few weeks ago, so either agents are backgrounding or clubs have made an informed guess), no one would expect that to trigger band 1. Clubs were already angry about the assistance package, the compensation pick is going to be a massive watch.