Willy's Warriors

Forward line will (hopefully) be something like: Kozi - Turner - Fritsch Langford - Van Rooyen - Tholstrup With Spargo, Jefferson, Trac, AMW and Chandler all in the mix as well. There are quite a few players with big tanks who aren't afraid to run. Langford, Kosi, Chandler and Thostrup in particular are all likely to be high work rate, competitive, players. I'm not worried if they aren't 'defensive fwds' - they all seem like they will keep people accountable.

Can't delist Johnson - minimum two year contract for draftees. Can't see Spargo being delisted. He is best 22/borderline best 22 when fit (just had a horror run). Billings and Fullarton seem the two most likely to go from the main list. They need a big year - Billings in particular. With Lindsay, Langford and Sharp coming through, can't seem him in the frame for a wing/HFF role. Melky to retire. Campbell to retire if we have our eye on a ruck we can trade for, or if Verrall shows enough. Possibly McDonald, but I would say he gets another year on current form. We won't delist anyone with a contract for 2026, unless its by agreement. Only player I could see us reaching an agreement with would be McAdam if he genuinely doesn't want to play. For the rookies, Hore would be feeling very nervous. Verrall or Kentfield are projects that need time - doubt they will be cut. AMW upgraded, possibly Brown too? So, in summary: Billings, Fullarton, Melky most likely off the main list in 2025. McDonald, Campbell and/or McAdam next most likely to go. Three to six changes, not accounting for trades. Two to four draft picks, depending on who gets upgraded. Hore, AMW (upgraded), Brown (upgraded) off the rookie list. That would give us plenty to work with. No need to cut deeper, particularly if it isn't a particularly deep draft and we don't have any top picks. While its all well and good to try and position ourselves for the Tassie team, if we can't actually get access to the top talent next year, we shouldn't cut any more than we need to.

In a good way, like he's come back really focused and committed? Or is he disillusioned with the club?

Could see this happening: 5. Langford 6. Smillie 7. Travaglia 8. [Saints trade 8 and an F2 to Richmond for 10 and 24] Allan 9. Tauru I think if Tauru and Allan are on the board at 8, there will be a lot of people coming for that pick. If Richmond are so keen on Allan that they would take him at 6, they might trade up, as he might go to us at 9 if not. Otherwise, GWS, Port and Sydney all have picks that they could use to trade up. In an even draft, however, I image a lot of clubs would prefer to have a few picks rather than one good one. North could offer a F1 for 8, however, which you would assume is a top 5 pick.

Listened to Gettable. Lindsay was interviewed - his manager says he is right in the mix for our pick. Adelaide list boss was interviewed - says they have been locked in for a few days, but it was a close call. Very little to split the top group, which they think includes Kako and Tauru. Said Draper and FOS struggled in the carnival as they came undercooked due to injury, which made it hard to compete. Said they came good at the end of the year. Also said they didn't need a big bodied midfielder as they have Dawson and Curtain, who they think could be a midifielder. Said they were interviewing one other player today, which could alter who they picked. Wouldn't reveal who - but maybe Tauru? He said Tauru was absolutely amongst the best "four or five" players in the draft. Sounds like they like Draper, but its a pretty line ball call. Seems like the other two in the frame are Langford and Tauru.

Hmmm. There is some logic to that. I'm increasingly thinking Tauru could get to our second pick, and Bo could go at 6, 7 or 8. But it's a hell of a risk. Real chance neither are on the board at 9. I think we pick whoever we rate more highly at 5 - probably Tauru - rather than trying to get too clever.

There are two real quesitons every draft (1) who do you like and (2) who will we pick? (1) is entirely subjective. If you like Bo Allan, great. If you like Harvey Langford, also great. Either, way there is something enjoyable about sifting through videos and forming an opinion, particularly if you like some obscure player who goes on to be picked higher than expected, or goes on to become a jet. (2) is more objective. We will pick someone - so you're either right or you're wrong. Its a little different but its fun to try and predict who will go where and see if you're right. Either way, its about getting hyped for whoever the next generation is, both for your club and the AFL generally. If that's not your jam, fine, but don't ruin it for other people by carrying on - just tune in on draft night if that's your view.

My opinion is that we probably won't take Bo over the five options I listed. We don't know what JT thinks, but there are multiple publications with inside knowledge that say that we will pick someone other than Allan at 5. The Age's phantom, which was based on interviews with 13 recruiters, predicted we would pick Langford, and that "if not, O'Sullivan could easily be the pick here, while Smith and Tauru would be in the frame". Cal predicted we would pick Langford, and said "If Langford goes to the Crows the pick ahead, then Alix Tauru looks the next leading contender for the Melbourne pick. They will also be able to wait to see if one of the other premium midfielders slides through, albeit unlikely". Foxfooty has predicted we will take Tauru, stating "If North Melbourne takes Tauru at either Pick 2 or 4 (trade dependent), it’s likely two of Harvey Langford – who has long been linked to Melbourne – Finn O’Sullivan (less likely) or Sid Draper will be available for the Dees to select, with Langford seen as the more likely choice over Draper" So we've been linked at pick 5 to Langford, Tauru, O'Sullivan and Smith. Cal actually asked JT on gettable about melbourne's intentions at pick 5, and asked him if Lalor, Tauru, O'Sullivan and Langford were "right in the mix". JT responded "absolutely, they are all qualiity players and add something different to our current list...all those names are definitely there". Against that, there is nothing to link us to Allan at 5. I haven't seen anything suggesting we are contemplating that. The consensus seems to be that Allan goes later in round one, potentially at the Tiges (pick 6), St Kilda (picks 7 and 8) and us (pick 9). Most seem him getting through to us at 9, and potentially beyond that. If your point is that JT will pick whoever we rate at 5, that is fine, but unhelpful. It is kind of like saying water is wet. Its self evidently true, but adds nothing to a dicussion speculating on who we will pick. If you think Bo is a genuine chance at pick 5, that's also fine, there just doesn't appear any basis for that. We could still do it, but it would be a big surprise.

Seems like we will get one of: Langford/Tauru at 5 Tauru/Allan/Travaglia/Lindsay at 9 There is a chance all of our targets at 9 are gone, however, particularly if we get Tauru at 5. Who then? Reid, Berry possibly?

It's not a question of reach so much as best available. One of Lalor, O'Sullivan, Smith, Langford and Tauru will be available at 5. I don't think we will take Bo over any of those options.

Langford/Tauru for our first pick is good news. We can't really lose there. I am not the biggest fan of Allan, but at that point I don't think there is any standout options. He has enormous upside, so can see why we like him. I really doubt this is how it plays out though. If St Kilda pick two defenders there could be riots in Moorabbin. They need mids. Could Tauru slip to 9? Could see it going... 5. Langford. 6. Smillie 7. Allan 8. Travaglia/Lindsay 9. Tauru.

Our smallish defenders include: Salem, Rivers, McVee, Howes, Woewodin, Bowey, Hore I think we can probably cover Riv if he goes into the midfield permanently without another draftee to repalce him. Salem, Howes, McVee and Woewodin play the same role, just not as well. Bigger issue is that Tauru isn't a half back flanker. He reminds me a bit of Jared Rivers back in the day. If that's the kind of player he could be (minus the injuries) I would have no issues using pick 5 on him.

The knock on him is his speed. Here are the combine stats for some of the others around the same mark: Bo Allan: Agility test: 7.94 secs 20m sprint: 2.99 secs 2km time trial: 6:37 mins Harry Armstrong: Agility test: 8.132 secs 20m sprint: 3.09 secs 2km time trial: 6:50 mins Tobie Travaglia: Agility test: 8.261 secs 20m sprint: 3.19 secs 2km time trial: 6:13 mins Leo Lombard: Agility test: 7.81 secs 20m sprint: 2.851 secs 2km time trial: 6:39 mins Finn O'Sullivan: Agility test: 8.14 secs 20m sprint: 2.99 secs 2km time trial: 6:28 mins Josh Smillie: Agility test: 8.391 secs 20m sprint: 3.09 secs 2km time trial: 6:38 mins Harvey Langford: Agility test: 8.642 secs 20m sprint: 3.24 secs 2km time trial: 6:24 mins Jagga Smith: Agility test: 8.484 secs 20m sprint: 3.038 secs 2km time trial: 6:27 mins Basically - he's slow and not particularly agile compared to others. Can run though.

We certainly need something in our forward line, that is for sure. One thing I have noticed is that in the last few years we have been really keen to trade up to secure a forward who would make immediate impact. We went pretty hard at Bailey Humphrey in his draft year in 2022, then Harley Reid and Nick Watson in 2023, before trading up to take Kolt. All mid/forwards. There are quite a few in this draft: Lalor, Langford, Reid, FOS, and Hotton. I wouldn't be surprised if we take, say, Langford and Reid, in the hope that one of them develops in the mid/fwd we have been searching for. But if the last few years is any indicaiton, I don't think we will draft for need if there isn't a player at our pick that we consider good enough to warrant it.

I think that is right for pick 5. At 9, I am not so sure. The mids still there are likely to be Allan, Reid, Hotton, and Lindsay. Allan (disposal and decision making), Reid (speed and contested ball) and Hotton (ACL) all have questions marks over them. Lindsay seems to be less risk, but also doesn't have the same damaging traits as the others. Travaglia, for example, would be a safer pick. I am happy to trust JT at pick 9 - if he thinks the best player is Reid, or Hotton, or Armstrong, I wouldn't have any issue with that.

For me: Pick 5: Langford, Smith, FOS, Tauru (in order) Pick 9: Tauru, Travaglia, Reid, Hotton, Armstrong, Shanahan, Allan (in order)

McAdam is an interesting one. If he goes, we really need another small forward I think. Could really see us taking the two academy players Riak Andrew (KPD) and RIcky Mentha (Small Forward) as rookies. I think Andrew is probably more imporant long term, though, and if I was a betting man, I would say we pick up a ruck somewhere late.

I think its more useful to try and formulate a depth chart. Which would look something like this: KPF: Van Rooyen, Jefferson, Kentfield Small Forwards: Pickett, Moniz-wakefield, McAdam Medium forwards: Melksham, Fritsch, Spargo, Sestan, Mid/forwards: Tholstrup, Chandler, Billings, Laurie, Inside Mids: Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Sparrow, Brown Outside Mids/Wings: Windsor, Langdon, Sharp Rucks: Gawn, Verall, Fullarton, Campbell Mid/defenders: Salem, Rivers, McVee, Howes, Woewodin Small/medium defenders: Bowey, Hore KPD: May, Lever, McDonald, Adams KPF/KPDs: Turner, Petty Looking at that, I am pretty happy with our defensive stocks generally. We still need a young reliable KPD (I am not sure Adams is it) but currently it is not a priority. If we assume one of Petty or Disco plays in defence long term, it is much more balanced. We need another ruck, but that's not a problem I think we can address in this draft. We're really lacking a quality, young, future A-grade, inside mid. We're also lacking a mid-forward with really damaging disposal - Spargo is probably the best of the lot, but he's injured a hell of a lot. I think Tholstrup could be that player, but he's not quite there yet. We're lacking a mature KPF but that is not something we can address at the draft. We could probably use one more up and coming KPF, but again, not a priority. Looking at that, we could probably break it down as follows: High priority needs: Quality dedicated mid; mid-forward with damaging disposal Long term needs: KPD, KPF, Ruck If we look at it through that lens, I imagine we woud be looking at the following: Pick 5: Langford, Tauru, FOS, Smith Pick 9: Tauru, Reid, Allen, Armstrong, Travaglia Pick 79: KPD, Ruck Rookies: KPDs, Rucks I think our ideal draft would be Langford/FOS/Smith, Tauru. We can't really go wrong picking a mid at 5. They are all great. I would probably lean towards Langford, because his disposal seems the most damaging, and he can play as a forward easily, but he is more high risk than Smith or FOS. At 9, I think Tauru and Travaglia are the safest bets. Tauru likely will be gone by our pick, though. Reid, Armstrong and Allan all have more question marks over them, but each have really damaging traits that mean their ceiling is really high. That's where I think we really need to trust JT - any of them could be elite, its just whether their downsides outweigh their advantages. If we pick Travaglia, I would assume it is to free up Rivers and allow him to play more midfield.

From the outside its impossible to tell who is a reach or not. A lot of people had Curtain as a top 5 pick, Leake as a top 10 pick, Darcy WIlson as a borderline top 10 pick. No one had Gothard as low as 10. Tholstrop similarly was considered in the mid teens. It looks like Windsor, Gothard and Tholstrop were higher up clubs' draft boards than expected. And not just by Melbourne - sounds like if we hadn't picked Windsor, GWS would have at 8, or somone in that 9-12 range. Same with Tholstrop - was apparently in the mix at Essendon's pick and would have been taken by St Kilda after us. Gothard too had interest from St Kilda, Sydney and GWS.

If anyone slides back it will be Geelong. They have pick 8, 25 and then 70s, and are expected to use four to five picks. Can see an offer from Adelaide or us swaying them.

If you look at Cal Twomey's phantom draft, Tholstrop is apparently in the mix at Essendon's pick 9, Adelaide's pick 10, our pick 11, and St Kilda's pick 13. I doubt he would have been available at 15 if we hadn't moved up, so I think the assertion that we've traded up for a guy who would have been there at our pick isn't right. Even if we have, however, that might still be worth it to guarantee who we wanted, rather than rolling the dice on whoever was left. It looks like we will be in the right part of the draft at 11 for one of Leake, O'Sullivan, Tholstrop, or Caddy depening on what other clubs do. Could see it getting shuffled if Adelaide moves up or WCE jumps back in to draft Curtain at eight.

Ahhh I do love trade period. Just in case this is serious - dogs traded 10, 17 and a F1 for pick 5, they are not going to move back for the sake of six places in the third round. Particulary given those picks will be chewed up in the bid for Croft. Hawks have a father son at around 15-20ish (McCabe) so they need all their thirds for that too. They will have no interest in trading back. North also have too many first round picks to be interested in six. They are more likely to want to package up their late first rounders (I think they have 17, 18, 19 or something like that) for picks 8 or 10. They are better off sticking with 2 and 3 then splitting one of those picks for 6 and 11. It's pick 1 or taking our picks to the draft. No other real option.

I reckon we're a chance here. If WCE rate Curtain as the second best player in the draft, then it will likely come down to whether or not he will still be there at six. If he is, the offers would then effectively be: Curtain, pick 15, pick 17 and pick 18 for Reid (NM); or Curtain, pick 11, and a future first for Reid. I can see our offer being more palatable. We have a higher pick, and, based on clubs trading this year, it looks like an F1 will be potentially more attractive than pick 17 and 18 this year. I can't see North trading two of pick 2, 3 and their future first, so that might be enough. Might all hinge on the risk that a club takes Curtain at 2-5, but it looks likely that those picks will be McKercher, Duursma, Watson and Sanders, with Caddy, Curtain and O'Sullivan outside chances.

Do we trade our future second and thirds to Brisbane now for pick 29 and Fullarton? They need the points for Ashcroft number two.