titan_uranus

At this stage I reckon likely outcomes look like this: If we beat both Carlton and Brisbane, we'll finish 3rd and play the winner of Sydney v Collingwood in the first final, unless Collingwood wins that but then loses to Carlton, in which case we'll finish 2nd and host Sydney If we beat Carlton and lose to Brisbane, we'll finish 4th if Collingwood drops both of its games from here and get Geelong at the G, or 5th if Collingwood wins a game and we'll get whoever finishes 8th (Dogs most likely). Assumes Brisbane and Sydney win enough to stay above us. If we lose both, we'll finish probably 6th and play probably Richmond or Carlton

The forward line laid 8 tackles from 65 inside 50s (compared to their 18 from 41). Too many inside 50s rebounded. The forward line has problems, but perhaps not the ones being discussed here. But yes, as a general concept I agree with you that things are wrong if we're conceding 96 points (albeit this week that was contributed to in part by their good accuracy of 15.6).

Didn't we all say that after Queen's Birthday? They're setting records for smallest margins across 4, 5, 6, 7 consecutive wins. Their percentage is 106%. They are living on a knife's edge. Games decided by less than two goals are not determined solely by skill, they necessarily involve luck. Couldn't agree more on this. Prior to tonight we'd played six consecutive games at different venues, in four different States/Territories. It's an unbelievably ridiculous fixture, for a reigning premier to boot. No side should spend five straight weeks without a (genuine) home game. (PS: not suggesting this is why we lost, given they were on consecutive six-day breaks and we had the extra day's break going into this game).

ANB 22 pressure acts, our third-most behind Oliver and Viney. I reckon that's going to keep him in the side. However, ANB, Pickett, Spargo and Sparrow combined for 0 tackles inside forward 50. Bearing in mind Fritsch and Brown also laid 0 tackles inside 50, that's not going to win us games of football. Lever only played 85% TOG. Would not at all be surprised if he's carrying an injury. Meanwhile just as Hibberd and Hunt both regress back into the form that made us all suspect neither was best 22 this year, we've flipped Joel Smith back yet again to a forward at Casey.

But that's the point - the idea of the loading theory was that we were losing those mid-season games to peak our fitness now. If other sides are doing better fitness-wise than us, including the side which has won 11 straight and therefore clearly didn't need to load up mid-season like us, it's hard to accept loading is why we dropped those mid-season games. If it was, the loading certainly didn't pay off tonight.

Goody was asked about this before the game and joked about being surprised by it. He was joking, but IMO that shows he cared. If he didn't care about it he'd have given some sort of deadpan "who cares" response. I hate pre-match trash talk. Hate it. Did it fire us up to insult them? No. Did it fire them up? Possibly - they certainly have said so. Why give them something to motivate them? It makes us come across as arrogant AF, and then backfires like this. I'm fully aware I'm saying all this after the loss with the benefit of hindsight, but trust me, if I'd had the time to log on here pre-match I'd have said the same thing.

I've never bought the loading theory as being any significant reason for us going from 10-0 to 13-5 prior to last week. I also don't think that loss = no loading and win = loading, either. But the way tonight played out doesn't sit well with the notion that we've set our season up to be at our fittest right now: First half we had +22 more CPs. Second half only +2 First half we laid +8 more tackles, despite having +47 more disposals. Second half we were outackled -20 despite the disposal gap staying roughly the same (+46) They laid 26 tackles in the tight fourth quarter, double our 13 We dominated territory in the first half with +23 inside 50s. Second half just +1.

Tonight's loss is devastating, a classic 8-point game against us. A win would have borderline guaranteed top 4. Beating Carlton is now non-negotiable, but still might not be enough to make top 4 if we then lose to Brisbane. To make top 4 by beating Carlton but losing to Brisbane, we'd need three of the following to happen: Collingwood loses to both Sydney and Carlton Sydney loses to one of North, Collingwood and St Kilda and we hold our 2% gap over them, or they lose twice or more Brisbane loses to one of Carlton and St Kilda and we hold our 5% gap over them, or they lose twice or more Fremantle loses to at least of the Dogs, West Coast and GWS Remember, three of those have to happen for us to hold onto top 4 with a loss to Brisbane. So if you think we'll beat Carlton but lose to Brisbane, you are barracking for the Dogs and Carlton tomorrow (also North...but that's not happening). If Brisbane wins tomorrow, you're then turning your focus to St Kilda beating Brisbane at Marvel. And whoever loses out of Sydney v Collingwood, get around their opponent in Round 23 (either Carlton to beat Collingwood or St Kilda to beat Sydney).

It's all going to come crashing down for them. The only question is whether that happens before the flag is won this year, or after. There's nothing sustainable about what they're doing, it's all crazy high confidence and emotion. The game was on our terms in the first half. Much of the reason we weren't further in front by half time was our own doing, not theirs. That opens the door for a confident team riding on a huge crowd and feeding off all that emotion to get a head of steam, all of which is credit to them, but if we had had a lead at half time which reflected our first half dominance (17 points did not reflect it), they would have had a much harder task ahead of them. Fully expect them to regress significantly in 2023 as history tells us the odds of them getting this sort of run of luck is 0% (look at Port, great record in close games last year, can't buy a win in them this year). But it won't matter if they ride this out for six more weeks and get the flag in the process.

Only 85% TOG for Lever? Is he injured/unfit? That's very low for him.

@binman - not sure the loading plan involved us, in Round 21, having an extra day break against a side on back-to-back six day breaks and then being steamrolled in the second half...

+93 disposals. +22 CPs. +20 clearances. +24 inside 50s. +1 extra day break on our opponent, who was coming off back-to-back six day breaks. That should be a 5-goal win, not a loss.

Livid. 6 losses this year. 5 of them we've led by 20+ points.

3-0 - we finish 1st or 2nd. 2-1 - we will make top 4 unless Sydney go 3-0 and make up the 5% gap. If Brisbane loses to Richmond tomorrow, then Brisbane also has to go 3-0 and make up whatever percentage gap they have over us too. 1-2 - we will make top 4 unless three of the following happen: Collingwood goes 3-0 or 2-1 Brisbane goes 4-0 or 3-1, or 2-2 and makes up the 6% gap Sydney goes 3-0, or 2-1 and makes up the 5% gap Fremantle goes 3-0 Side watch - Carlton can still miss the finals. They have Brisbane (away), us and Collingwood. If they go 0-3, they'll finish on 12 wins and are a good chance to be overtaken by the Dogs, who have GWS and Hawthorn and so should get to 12 wins as well, and are only 3% behind. Indeed, they could be passed by the Dogs even if they go 1-2, if the Dogs beat Fremantle next week. If they go 0-3, they're also a chance of being passed by Richmond, who would need 3 wins from Brisbane, Port, Hawthorn and Essendon.

If Brown's fit, he comes in for Weideman. If Jackson's unfit (he was hobbling at stages of the game), he shouldn't play. In that event, I reckon we'll bring Brown in for Jackson and give Weideman a reprieve, to play Jackson's role. Big decision to make if Harmes is fit. Not sure who makes way. ANB is struggling on offence but he had 31 pressure acts, our second-most last night. We focused on being "ruthless" all week and our pressure is key. I reckon ANB's safe. Sparrow is similar, but IMO making more mistakes and with 19 pressure acts to ANB's 31, IMO he's more in the gun. Cannot see an argument for Hunt or Rivers to be dropped, I thought both were good.

I really liked some of the performances of our "lesser lights" last night - Spargo, Rivers and Jordon all felt to me like they got some form back, and I have to give credit to Melksham as he played better than I expected we'd see from him. When we dominate contested ball like that, and we bring all-ground pressure, we are right in the thick of the flag hunt. We didn't bring that, at all, last week against the Dogs, and we didn't bring close enough to it against Geelong and Collingwood. This week we showed Fremantle what happens when we step our game up (and we're not missing May and have a one-legged Petty). Next week, let's hope we bring the same heat and show Collingwood something they didn't see on Queen's Birthday.

Get around Port, GWS, Adelaide and Richmond (to beat Collingwood, Sydney, Carlton and Brisbane respectively). Let's see how many of last week's results we can reverse this week.

@binman - well done

Huge "8 point win", that. 25 scoring shots to 14, +20 inside 50s and +25 contested possessions. Back playing the way we want to play.

@binman I think you've gone a bit too hard on this one. I think the messaging from the club this week indicates that we've focused on our effort levels. This happens a lot, there is a key theme at the club and key words permeate through press conferences and quotes from players. This week "ruthless" and "buy in" seem to be a theme. I reckon we've had a chat this week about the selflessness and effort that got us to the flag last year and how, perhaps, now is the time for us to lift that effort. I personally reckon too many of our best 22 have had a gear they've not been going to that they showed last year, and unlike you I do not pin that all down to loading.

Second consecutive six day break, no TMac, no Brown, no Harmes, Jordon questionable fitness, Lever questionable fitness, Oliver still recovering from a broken thumb, flying across the country to play on a slop of a turf against an opponent Fyfe and Switkowski short of full strength with an extra day's break. Get around us. Season-defining win coming up tomorrow night.

5, actually (3 vs Collingwood, 1 each vs Fremantle and Adelaide). The rest of these two posts really leaves a lot to be desired and makes me grateful you have nothing to do with running our club. Parts of them very arguable, if not flat out wrong (he's not "one paced", he can kick, albeit not at an elite level like Salem or Bowey, and he is as defensively reliable as anyone in our side), they are premised off a position you know nothing about (the value of his salary), and they ignore the clear benefits we get from Gus culturally and through his leadership. I also have no idea about the logic behind the "panic move" comment. You really think the club, suspecting Jackson's going to leave, took extra money/years and threw it at Brayshaw out of panic? After everything we've established in our list management over the lsat 5-7 years?

Good memory re: Essendon. We didn't have a home game against them for 9 years (2010-2019). Brisbane also didn't have a home game against Hawthorn for 8 years (2008-2016). Meanwhile we've been to Geelong 17 times in the last 21 seasons...

As an aside, this is Fremantle's first home game against us since 2015. Which is utterly ridiculous. I wonder whether there is any other match up in the competition where a side hasn't had a home game against another side in 7 years.

JVR an emergency. Getting closer now. Chandler could well be the sub, which I don't think is a very good option. A small forward offers very little if a tall, defender or mid go down. Given we already have Spargo, ANB, Pickett and Melksham in the starting 22, unless he's subbed on for one of them we just get so out of what. At the very least, Dunstan as a midfielder can slot into the middle and push, say, Petracca forward (if the injured player is a forward) or Brayshaw/Hunt back (assuming one of them is playing midfield).