titan_uranus

Not sure the final paragraph makes the argument you're trying to make. The WC-St Kilda stat says a lot more about those clubs' respective defences than their offences.

Bairstow was out. The English reaction is disgusting and so hypocritical given the Starc catch saga yesterday. But it is helping them try to win the match. They are heaping the pressure on us and Stokes has taken the liberty. Can't bowl Green if he's going to bowl like that, but we can't afford not to bowl Green without Lyon. We really needed Starc to hold that catch off Green's bowling to get rid of Stokes. We might not get another chance and if he keeps striking it like he has been, we are a bowler down and only going to offer up more bad balls. Truth be told, it's been an incredible performance for us to even have had this enormous lead. We've batted in the worst conditions and bowled in the best batting conditions, all whilst being a bowler down. England never should have fallen this far behind. But by virtue of how far behind they fell, if they do get up and win from here (they're nearly favourites right now given Stokes' form), they are going to ride the "injustice" of the Bairstow dismissal and the high of coming from behind all through the series. The Ashes is almost certainly going to be decided in the next 2 hours.

We can't keep playing forwards because they can defend, if they're not hitting the scoreboard enough: Smith, ANB, Chandler, Grundy, previously Spargo. We obviously need a mix, but JVR was bringing sufficient forward half defensive pressure but with the ability to be a forward. Smith brings forward pressure but with no real forward ability. JVR brings at least equal, if not better, structure than Smith too. With Fritsch out, we need natural forwards. At the moment it's Brown and Pickett. The rest are in there to be role players. That mix is wrong.

Yes and no. On expected scores we should have won today 74-42. Expected scores account for the difficulty of the shots we took. So it's not all because our shots were hard and we can't be expected to kick goals from them. AFAIK expected scores don't take into account pressure and fatigue, and I'm confident that because our forward half is always so congested we are taking our shots under more pressure and with greater fatigue (particularly from our half-forwards and mids who are being asked to cover heaps of ground). Plus there is the mental pressure - the more we are inaccurate, the more pressure there is each time.

They fell over the line today against one of the worst sides in the history of the sport (they lost Tim Kelly before the bounce, making them even worse). They are not a good side. That fixture on paper gives them the chance but they are not a good side. We cannot allow ourselves to think that it's OK to lose to St Kilda next week. It isn't. If we are serious about our season, next week is a must win (today was too, so we're 0-1 on that count).

It’s all a bit too soon still but as each week goes by I grow increasingly concerned that, without substantial change, we can’t take what we’re dominating (most things) and add what we lack (an ability to score). I think we have to accept doing worse in some areas (territory, stoppage) to try to improve our major weakness. Similarly, I also think we need to reflect on whether certain role players can be replaced with alternatives who replace the role player to enough of an extent, but then add something else. The player I’m thinking of here is ANB. Can we sacrifice some of his defence and pressure with someone who can add an ability to use the ball on offence and hurt our opponent more?

Why not? He’s not good enough.

To be clear, they won’t end our season. We will. We are beating ourselves. We are losing games to sides who don’t play well, who don’t play better for longer, but who take advantage of our mistakes. We are ending our own season by failing to fix fundamental problems.

Sounds like Fritsch will be out and no certainty to get Oliver back. JVR for Smith. A fresh face (Woey, Howes, whoever) for any of the underperforming players (ANB, Harmes, Chandler).

+70 disposals, +15 frees, +42 CPs, +19 clearances, +8 shots on goal, +27 inside 50s(!), but we lose. It’s not loading, it’s not personnel (albeit we’re missing two of our 5 best players), it’s some combination of coaching and skill. If we felt OK dropping Tomlinson after KB we should have dropped Smith after last week, instead of the better forward in JVR. We can’t make that mistake again. Brown’s a lumbering giant yet in the wet he had more touches than Smith and Melksham combined. This is the FD’s last chance to make changes to the 23, the way we try to score, and the way we play, because we cannot keep doing this.

+40 disposals, +12 free kicks, +31 CPs, +14 clearances, +21 inside 50s, +6 scoring shots, but losing.

I hate the Gameday threads because they’re so negative, but I feel at home with this one. 12 scoring shots to 9 and we’re down by 2 goals to a side currently sitting in the bottom 4. It’s just dispiriting.

+17 disposals, +14 CPs, +8 clearances, +13 free kicks, +10 inside 50s, +5 scoring shots, but scores level. I know that the underlying stats indicate we’re doing things right in the other two parts of the ground but if we don’t work out how to score from these stats soon, we never will (in 2023).

Fortunate sub option, Melksham replacing Fritsch. Big chance for Melksham to stake a claim for a spot in our forward line. Fingers crossed nothing serious for Fritsch. I don’t see us contending without him.

Salem up the ground isn’t a bad call but I want it to be Rivers instead. I like the idea of Salem staying at half back, we can’t strip all our good kicks out of there. With Bowey, Salem and McVee all in the side maybe this is the week we push Rivers further up.

I posted elsewhere that our top 4 chances could well be determined by the next 4 games (GWS, St Kilda, Brisbane, Adelaide), given the latter three are “8 point games” when it comes to the top 4. If we struggle through this month we are more likely than not to miss top 4.

Pretty bold thing to say given we just beat Collingwood.

The flatness of the ladder and the number of matches between rivals means I reckon there's a strong chance 12 wins will be enough for finals. Probably can write off everyone from Gold Coast down. Fremantle's draw is tough and their percentage is poor so it could well be down to 9 teams (Geelong and up).

The odds of us finishing top 2 are small enough to be disregarded. Neither Collingwood nor Port will lose enough games for us to pass them, and we won't run the table anyway. This is all about finishing 3rd or 4th and we have work to do to make that happen. Our season rests on us doing better from here than all bar one of Brisbane, the Dogs, Essendon, St Kilda, Adelaide and Geelong. After tomorrow, our next three are then St Kilda, Brisbane and Adelaide. It is, IMO, the biggest month of our season so far (including tomorrow). Finishing with Richmond, North, Carlton, Hawthorn and Sydney doesn't pose the same challenge or level of importance as these four games. 4-0 in the next month probably seals top 4, given the damage we get to do to our direct rivals.

We were on and ready for the fight in Round 4 vs West Coast, Round 6 vs Richmond, Round 7 vs North, Round 8 vs Gold Coast, Round 9 vs Hawthorn, Round 10 vs Port Adelaide... Or by "on and ready for the fight" do you mean "dominant and looking a million bucks"? The two are not the same.

I’m not a massive fan of dropping JVR. I don’t think he was playing poorly. If it’s a short term rest thing then I can accept that but it was described as an omission, not “managed”, so I’m not sure. I’m still not convinced by Smith as a forward so I guess JVR might get that spot back, assuming Brown gets a decent run at it.

Brisbane now only 1.1% behind us. @binman - unfortunately that 13% gap we had post-KB has nearly dissipated. (edit: and obviously they’re also 2 wins up albeit with one extra game)

Feels like it’s Harmes for Jordon and Bowey for Hibberd. Spargo as sub should be replaced by Melksham (there aren’t any other options unless we drop Pickett or Smith from the 22). Not hugely inspiring but he played well at Casey last week so it’s not undeserved. Last spot feels like it’s Brown v JVR. I don’t think JVR deserves to be dropped but I also want to see Brown back in the side. I suppose Smith could be dropped for Brown, and I admit I thought his second half last week was poor, but I doubt that will happen.

I think this is criminally underrated by most of us. Oliver goes down in Round 10 vs Port. We move Trac into more midfield minutes to cover. Our scoring decreases. Yes, we need Oliver back, but I’d love us to have more midfield depth to be able to cover Oliver with others and keep Trac forward of centre more. I’m a big advocate for Rivers to become a midfielder. I continue to believe we play too many small forwards and not enough mids.

Feels like you’ve gone full doom spiral @praha. I’d be really keen to know what our inside 50 conversion looked like in 2021. It’s never been our strong suit. I can’t accept that we never looked like beating Port or Geelong. Geelong FFS we were leading for most of the game! Port we absolutely looked like winning at 3QT and I’ll continue to argue we were quite good in that game despite it being in the wet and on the road. And Fremantle was a game we should have won had we simply kicked straight. A lot of what we are doing on game day is what we need to do to win the flag. It isn’t enough right now because we keep missing easy shots on goal and wasting good scoring chains with bad kicks inside 50. I agree that it isn’t as simple as flicking a switch but I can’t accept we’re closer to falling apart than putting it all together.