titan_uranus

This is on the money I think. It’s evident on here. A large portion of the supporter base has set the bar at winning a flag or at least winning finals. Unless we’re playing at a level somewhere near 2021, that portion of the supporter base sits at a game with flat emotion - “yeah we won/are winning but so what”. And if we’re behind, the anxiety as you describe it kicks in (“another season wasted”, “I’m never going to see a flag in person”) and rather than get louder, that portion of the supporter base stews in their anxiety. This doesn’t apply to everyone, possibly only a small minority, and for those of us who are there as many weeks as possible screaming our lungs out then hearing comments like Roffey’s may hurt. But I don’t agree with, say, @dazzledavey36 who says she’s out of touch with reality. I think there is some validity to what she’s saying.

She’s right in saying that a loud crowd in our favour impacts how we play. And she’s right that Collingwood do it best. I’d argue that our crowds are louder than most give us credit for, but we can always do more.

I sure hope so (not that it’s a particularly nice description of Jefferson).

“Nowhere approaching LJ’s worth”? You don’t think two first round picks was ”approaching” it?

Well that wasn't really how I read "It could be argued that both Hogan and Jackson were busts as key forwards, in that we couldn't keep them at the club". It sounds like your true argument is "we failed to deal with Hogan and Jackson leaving". I would disagree with that assessment re: Hogan, as converting him into May was precisely what we needed to do at the end fo 2018 and it paid off for 2021. For Jackson, we got the picks but whether or not they work out for us is clearly TBD. And are you seriously calling JVR a "scrawny, hunch-backed 19 yr old barely noticeable at VFL level"?

Brisbane just lost Kiddy Coleman for the year, Carlton just lost Docherty for the year. Losing Bowey for 8 weeks is bad, but we're not the only club to exit Opening Round with a worse injury list. Yes and no. There are parts of that game where GWS completely dominated. However, Collingwood ended up with more inside 50s, more scoring shots and had a higher expected score than GWS. I know that sort of description when applied to us triggers a lot of people, but it's evidence to suggest Collingwood weren't as far off it as it might have looked. Given most think GWS is a flag contender, I'm reserving judgment on Collingwood until I see some more games from them. I'm not sure they'll lose like that much more for the rest of the year. Agree on the last point though - I'm reserving judgment to a large extent on us until I see us play in non-tropical conditions.

It's one of the biggest arguments on here. I think it informs most Demonlanders' disappointment. From the starting point of "our list is the best in the competition", losses and finals failures become much harder to stomach. But as you say, when you start thinking about it it becomes hard to justify the argument that we have the best list, or even close to it. We have, at best, an average selection of tall forwards - no matter how you rate Petty and JVR, each of Carlton, Brisbane, GWS, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, the Dogs, Geelong and Fremantle have better options, even North and West Coast have one tall forward more talented/proven than either of ours. No matter how you rate Pickett, ANB and our other mid/small forwards, many of the aforementioned clubs have equal/better mid/small forwards. And no matter how highly you rate Gawn, Trac, Oliver and Viney, our midfield depth is not necessarily better than Carlton, Collingwood, Brisbane, GWS, the Dogs or Sydney, and in some respects (e.g. wingers, pace and skill) is worse than some/all of those sides. There's no doubt that we have as much proven elite talent on our list as any other side (Gawn, Trac, Oliver, Viney, May, Lever, Frtisch) but a list isn't just a club's top 8-10 A-graders, it's 44 players deep. If you take the two competing arguments - we have a great list and Goodwin's wasting it, or we have an average list and Goodwin's therefore done well to have us in the top 4 for three straight years with a flag - there are seriously substantial reasons to say the latter is the better argument.

Why was Spargo in rehab? He didn't play the practice matches, then walks back into the starting 22, then displays laziness/lethargy during the match, then is back in the rehab group at the next training session. Am I missing something, did he get a new injury in the game, or did we just totally [censored] it by picking him?

Not great for McAdam: Hamstring issue to further delay Melbourne Demons' Shane McAdam season start (afl.com.au)

It could be argued, but any such argument would be weak. Hogan brought supporter interest back during the Roos era, left us for a host of personal reasons which we had no chance of changing, and we “cashed” him in for Steven May, without whom we’d never have won the flag. Jackson then also helped us win the flag and we “cashed” him in for three top picks.

There are plenty of words to describe Spargo. I’m not sure “fast” is one of them.

The Brisbane win last year had that precise same feeling. In the conversation for our best H&A win under Goodwin. But tbh every finals contender has one of these wins every year.

All fair points here. It’s almost impossible for Fullarton to offer any less than Schache and Pickett is an infinite upgrade on Laurie/Spargo so our Round 1 forward line is going to be better even before any weather condition changes. Whatever we do to replace Bowey, we have to prioritise Salem being a mid.

What do you mean the only difference? They have a midfield that is as good as ours if not better (with Walsh to come back), a forward line with a generational FF, a powerful CHF and proper small forwards, and a defence which has Weitering to come back. They have forward half talent we’d kill for and they maximise that talent.

Maybe you’ve answered your own question here…

I don’t think you understood a single thing about my post.

Pickett changes us enormously. He can make things happen with forward 50 ground balls that no one else can (and particularly not Laurie or Spargo). Petty, Fullarton or B Brown are going to be more competitive in the air than Schache. Those two key changes, plus less humidity, should hopefully be enough to make the forward line good enough.

I can't believe this needs to be done, but anyway: Here's the BOM data for Sydney during game time: 84% humidity during the game. The dew point is also a measure of moisture - it is the temperature to which air has to be cooled in order to produce condensation. The higher it is, the the more moisture in the air. The BOM says that a dew point of 21 means the weather is "muggy, quite uncomfortable" (5-10 is "dry", 10-15 is "comfortable"). I get that you have the word "Cranky" in your username, but seriously.

I'm pretty stunned by that, but I did only see one replay at the ground (which I thought supported my initial view live that it was one of those clumsy strikes that gets a week).

Fully agree that we have to keep Salem in the middle. Bowey's injury hurts on so many levels. Robs us of his kicking, pressures us to push Salem back and prevents us pushing Rivers up more. I'd prefer to go with Woewodin's run. Given their pre-seasons Billings deserves a full game over Spargo. Should never have been the sub last night and should start next week.

Indeed, Grundy led all players from both sides with 9 clangers. He was good, don't get me wrong, but he was nowhere near as good as most are saying.

Agree with these two points in particular. Spargo and Laurie are not going to get it done for us this year. They are too slow for their height, they don't cover the ground well enough, they don't tackle well enough and they don't reliably kick goals. Chandler, for all his problems, is much quicker and has goal nous when he's inside 50. I don't agree with everything in your post but this bit was something I wasn't happy with last night, particularly because it's supposed to have been a focus of ours this year (per Petracca in the Dyl & Friends podcast). There is so much disrespect of Gawn in this thread, it's embarrassing, but the one criticism I will put against him is that he too often goes into "I'll do it" mode, and it doesn't help us.

It looked to me as though he spent more time in the back half to cover for the absence of Bowey.

I don't understand what your complaint is. Bombing it wasn't the problem last night.

Salem “disappeared” after Bowey’s injury. Nevertheless, yes, we have a problem if we can’t win CPs or clearances against a second-string midfield.