titan_uranus

Wait, which one is it?

They had most of these injuries two weeks ago when they beat Sydney. Take no one for granted. The competition has never been more even.

I'm with @DeeSpencer on this. Oliver has to play predominant midfield or not at all. Last night he was just a complete fraction of his usual self and it's clear to me the FD realised it and left him at half-back accordingly. I'm in the minority on this, I know, but I thought Woey was OK across half-back last night. I think we need to put more minutes into him so I'd be looking for ways to keep him in the side. I think we can cover for Rivers moving up the ground, particularly once Hore and Salem come back in 3-5 weeks (I assume), but until then I think we have to focus on the midfield and deal with the backline as best we can, rather than the other way around. I get the pressure issue with Brown/JVR/Petty/Fritsch but it's easier to cover when Pickett plays and Brown made us much better in the previous weeks when we weren't constantly on the back foot stoppage-wise. I'm not going to be mad if we make a change there but for the same reasons as above, our focus IMO has to be on maximising our stoppage game. There aren't players on our list capable of generating winning scores without a good midfield performance to help them.

Since Round 1 2021 we've only lost 8 H&A games at the MCG, including last night (out of a total of 39 H&A games played at the G). Whilst we've also lost the four finals, the point about losing H&A games is that H&A games are where we prognosticate about our finals/flag chances. And the point about the MCG is that that is where the majority of us members go to watch us play live. Also, this is the earliest into a year we've lost at the G since 2019 (we lost in Round 3, 2020, but that was on 28 June given the COVID shutdown, and was played in front of no crowd). We didn't lose at the G in 2021 until July whilst in 2022-23 we didn't lose until the last weekend of May. So last night, we all walk away being somewhat "shocked" by losing, because we just aren't used to it of late, and particularly not this early into a season. We're all a little shaken by it and it naturally makes us start to question 2024. I think that explains why there have been so many posts here along the lines of "I don't know what to make of our season", or "I was sucked into the four wins", or "we weren't really any good against Port/Adelaide". I don't actually think last night tells us much we didn't already know. We are not talented enough forward of centre to win games when we are beaten in the midfield. The same thing happened in Opening Round against Sydney. Not coincidentally, Pickett missed both games. A low inside 50 count makes winning hard enough but doing it with a sub-optimal forward 6 missing its most naturally talented ground ball player makes it near-impossible. We can keep ourselves in games with our collective defensive effort. It's been said a lot but keeping Brisbane to 82 points and 22 scoring shots was a great effort given how dominant they were in the other two-thirds of the ground. Indeed, if Trac had kicked that goal after the JVR goal, the margin would have been back to 30 points with 9 minutes on the clock, and we'd have kicked 3 goals in about 2 minutes. The Brisbane supporters around me were already nervous before his miss, given what happened late in our game last year, and the Melbourne crowd was awakening. The fact we were even able to be in that position at all was due to our ability to restrict their score through the first three quarters. But as much as we keep ourselves in games, we also know that when push comes to shove we are prone to being beaten when we are not on top in the middle. So we can't keep playing an unfit Clarry, or an unfit Viney, or an unfit Trac (Clarry's clearly unfit, Trac came off a lot yesterday and was getting strapping so it won't surprise me if he's carrying something, and Viney looked like he still had the flu a week later). We certainly can't play multiple unfit midfielders. When Pickett doesn't play we need to find someone else to inject spark into our CBAs, and we probably need to accelerate the transition of Rivers into the middle because his run and carry is needed there. I doubt we'll see a collective Oliver-Trac-Viney failure like last night again, but if we do, bank on a loss, because we aren't good enough to cover for it.

I actually think he's doing really well for someone his age who is being asked to ruck, when really he shouldn't be. I think we're asking him to spend too much energy and focus on rucking, covering the ground etc., when what we ideally ought to be doing is letting him spend his entire game perfecting what he needs to perfect, his forward craft. The ruck gets him into the game sometimes, but every minute he rucks is minutes of time he's not spending working on being a forward.

Whilst we do need to address the forward line, McCluggage would improve us enough to warrant allocating salary cap space to him IMO. If he were genuinely available, I'd be throwing whatever we have at getting him. I'm not sure a McCluggage-salary-worthy forward will be available, either.

I'm definitely open to pushing Windsor behind the ball more, particularly now that we're down both Bowey and Salem (good kicks x 2). I'm also very much in favour of pushing Rivers into the middle more but without Bowey and Salem, that robs us of so much run. Hence the Windsor move, which as you say then opens up a spot for Hunter. Goodwin alluded to this as an option in his mid-week presser, when asked about how Hunter gets back into the side, so I reckon it's a reasonable chance of happening. Brown and Petty were both bad last night, albeit at least Petty has the excuse of having Harris Andrews as his opponent. On last night's evidence one should be dropped, but the principal problem last night was the belting we got in the middle. When we have been strong in the middle, Brown's presence forward has been very important for us. I think we need to cut him and Petty some slack for last night.

How often have sides actually got runs on against us over the last few years, though? And a option missing from your list above is "backing our system in", which has worked far more often than not. We have multiple examples of turning in-form slumps around under Goodwin, including one not even a year ago against Brisbane on the G. When it works, we praise the players (and sometimes the FD) for digging deep. When it doesn't work, we inevitably get the "stubborn Goodwin" stuff.

Goodwin spoke about our problem with territory after the last two wins. We know we aren’t playing as well as we want. I don’t think the FD are under any illusions about that.

Brisbane only had two further days compared to us (they played the Thursday night in Round 3, we played the Saturday night). They also had one fewer day's break into this week compared to us, and they have been on the road back-to-back. Having said that, they had a bye before they commenced these three games. Did the fixture really cruel us that much more than Brisbane?

[censored] no. TMac was one of our best down back tonight. He's playing good football, finally. We can't mess that up now. Unfortunately for Petty he has to produce as a forward or go play VFL.

You know you're a [censored] when Dayne Zorko, who is your teammate, calls you out on your behaviour. I hope we quietly remember Noah Answerth's behaviour tonight and on the return game in Round 16, we play well enough that we can give something back to that [censored]. Pathetic.

This is a [censored] post IMO. Even if you're thinking if, even if it's true, he's an 18-year old debutant playing in a side where his A-grade teammates were getting belted. More importantly, he clearly isn't ready for AFL level football. That's on the FD, not him. He simply should not have been picked. I want us supporting our kids, not throwing them under the bus.

6 - Gawn 5 - TMac 4 - Lever 3 - Rivers 2 - Langdon 1 - May TMac should be in everyone's votes. I thought he was really, really good tonight. The backs (TMac, Lever, Rivers, May) deserve credit and I hope internally the club is applauding their efforts. With the amount of time the ball spent in our defensive half, most other sides would have conceded far more than 22 scoring shots.

It's too early to make definitive calls, but I'll try anyway. Pickett straight back in for Tholstrup. Was nice seeing his debut but he's not ready and shouldn't have played (not the first time we've got that wrong this year, we have to get better). Presumably Salem misses. I actually liked Woey's efforts at half-back and wouldn't be against him getting a full game down there. But would be amazing if Hore was fit as he'd be the perfect replacement IMO (push Rivers up more and have Hore cover down back more). Oliver can't play again with this level of impairment in his hand. If he hasn't improved sufficiently he has to be left out to heal and someone else has to play that role. But if that happens, our depth is going to be really tested as we just don't have the list depth in the middle. Could see Hunter getting Billings' spot too. Not sure what else we can do, other than dropping one of Brown or Petty and trying a different look. That might be easier when McAdam's fit but he will need time in the VFL first.

Collingwood had a terrible loss to Hawthorn last year, dominated in most key stats. Richmond lost six times prior to their bye in 2019, each loss was by at least 33 points, and included a 67 point loss to Geelong and losses to North and Adelaide who didn't play finals.

We looked off physically from the get go. Given we had an extra day's break compared to Brisbane, and they are on back-to-back road trips, that's not really a good sign. Sure, they've had a bye and we haven't, but it's Round 5. We can't be this physically exhausted after six games, can we? I guess it's possible that we were so psyched up for the Adelaide week that we just fell flat this week. And as I posted earlier, we appear to be carrying too many who are obviously not fully fit (Oliver, Chandler, May, Brown) and some who I suspect aren't fully fit (Trac, Viney, maybe Windsor). Being -66 disposals at 3QT but also -23 tackles is damning. As well as being -20 CPs.

That was the worst midfield game we’ve played in probably 4 years. To hold them to 22 scoring shots and 82 points is actually a good performance all told given how utterly awful we were at contest and clearance to three quarter time. I doubt we’ll ever see Oliver, Trac and Viney collectively play that poorly again. I sure hope we don’t. Oliver clearly isn’t fit and we conceded that by shifting him to half back; we had to get him out of the stoppages. Viney reverted to old Viney, no awareness and too many ill advised attempts to break tackles. And I would not be surprised if Trac is injured. Couple that with our opponent having an elite midfield and then all of them firing and you end up with us being wholly unable to play the game on our terms. Windsor looked to hit a bit of a wall, Howes was poor, Billings was poor and Kolt’s clearly not ready for this level, so that middle third of the ground was just so bad. I’m inclined to write it off as a mulligan, but we have a major midfield/stoppage problem that wasn’t just an issue tonight but has been evident all year. Rivers looked good there late so I’d like to see that continue.

I agree that this will be a close game. I actually think our form is precisely as strong as it looks - we've looked amazing at times over the four wins but also have had patches of struggling with clearances and territory, and as much as we want to embrace learning to score from our defensive half, Goodwin's said multiple times now that we're not happy with how much we're having to play from our defensive half and it's clearly something we can't keep up for too much longer. Having said that, Brisbane has won the territory battle in all of its three losses (+13 inside 50s to Carlton but lost, +8 to Fremantle but lost, +13 to Collingwood but lost).

This was always going to be the result. It’s not unreasonable. It‘s not a conspiracy theory. It’s not because he’s not a Carlton or Collingwood player. It’s what the MRO guidelines require and it’s part of the AFL’s increasing focus on concussion. We just need to move on, as a club (ie preparing for Thursday) and a supporter base.

We’ve played an extra game…

The loading sure has worked. @binman

Fogarty got the same grading as Kozzie.

No Cam Guthrie or Rohan either.

Adelaide in Adelaide, St Kilda and the Dogs off a 5-day break mightn’t be the hardest fixture so far but sure isn’t the easiest. They, sadly, appear to be right back in contention.