titan_uranus

Did you read Demonland last night?

The best I'll accept is that it's a mix of both but the way in which people suggested it was nothing to do with missing players was ridiculous. They may still have defensive weaknesses but they aren't the same if they have Kemp and McGovern instead of Young and Williams. On a side note, I had Carlton fans sitting around me who spent the whole game expecting us to run them down and the final 10 minutes convinced we'd lose. There must be a CFCSS which is worse than MCFSS!

Have you been watching West Coast lately? Their recent form at home includes a win over a top 8 side (Fremantle), a close loss to a top 8 side (Essendon), and a win over Richmond. Prior to that run, they led Sydney away from home for a half and lost by 26. A 10+ goal margin is far too high of a bar. Right now, West Coast in Perth is not a walk in the park.

As much as your posts often take the extreme view of things, there's definitely merit to your views on Fritsch. Last night he showed the poor parts of his game too often: lazy/soft when it hits the deck, and playing from behind far too often. He was pushed up into the middle at one point in the second quarter (IIRC), which I thought was interesting. IMO he has more than enough runs on the board to guard against being dropped but that doesn't mean we can't call out the poor parts of his game and you'd hope/expect the FD see it and are working on it.

I agree that the response after quarter time was more than encouraging given how on top they were. There aren't that many sides in the competition this year who are capable of coming back from 37 points down when Walsh, Cripps and Weitering are playing as well as they were. But there are problems we have to address. One of them is our first quarters. We're 4-5 in first quarters, but over the last six weeks it has felt like we've struggled to get going on the scoreboard early: 3.2.20 vs Port was pretty good but they were 4.1.25 2.0.12 vs Adelaide against 2.5.17 2.0.12 vs Brisbane against 4.2.26 2.3.15 vs Richmond against 1.3.9 3.2.20 vs Geelong against 2.4.16 0.0.0 vs Carlton against 5.0.30 2-4 in that period. Admittedly not an easy fixture run but equally one of the two wins was against Richmond. Last night the only blowout loss but accuracy was a big part of that. Regardless, it just feels like we're too slow to get started and give ourselves more work to do in the middle of the game than we'd like.

Do you seriously think this? The middle two quarters were intense and even. If we didn't turn up until three quarter time, do you really think the game would have been as close as it was? I have to stop myself from OTT posting about this but ask Carlton supporters for their views on Young and you'll get a strong majority telling you he's a real problem. Williams was struggling defensively too. Replacing them with McGovern and Kemp was enormous for them structurally. Daniel Hoyne on radio wanted people to believe it was a system problem, not personnel. In a not-uncommon occurrence, he is wrong.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1125436 More wins than losses for sides on 5 day breaks so far this year. This also says clubs can have up to 3 5 day breaks, which I wasn’t aware of. If we cop a third, when others so far haven’t had any…

First time this has happened all year. We’ve been losing the inside 50 count most weeks to date.

Classic case of causation vs correlation. Are we actually losing because of the timeslot? Or because the opponents were Sydney (away), Brisbane and Carlton, three sides we match up on poorly? And one game was humid and another rained?

If he contacted the head it has to be a week, same principle as Pickett v Adelaide. Low actual contact upgraded to medium on potential to injure. If he didn’t contact the head then it‘s nothing.

I agree with your interpretation of the stat but there’s no doubt we had some really bad misses (Petty as you say, but Fritsch before that and Chandler too) that cruelled our chances. That can be true despite what you day about xScore.

So frustrating given they took a goal off us in the final last year. This time inconclusive, last time conclusive. There’s no doubt the dangerous tackle free was wrong. I don’t think Kemp staged, I just think his knee stuck in the turf. Either way, the tackle was fine and it was either holding the ball or play on.

Is there any evidence floating around that May touched it? Has anyone gone back and looked at the footage? Sometimes people talk about it on Twitter/etc afterwards but I haven’t seen anything yet. At the ground you couldn’t see on the screen but it’s rare for a player to be that animated about a touch without actually touching it.

There won’t be any more Thursday night games in the rest of the fixture so the need for 5-day breaks will be reduced. I have a bit of a problem with some clubs getting two of them whilst others get zero. But unless the short break was a factor in our poor start I don’t think it was relevant otherwise. We ran the game out much better than they did.

Huh? Our percentage is 121.%. It’s top 4 (only Sydney, Geelong and GWS are better). Carlton’s is 109% by comparison.

That’s not really what tonight’s expected score says though. Our score was pretty much bang on expected. So whilst we missed easy shots, we also nailed harder ones. They were +20 though, which means they kicked above expectation. A bit incongruous because of our bad misses but tonight was more about them not missing almost any shots. That 6.0.36 start could have been 4.2.26 and the game would have felt different.

Williams is part of the reason they’ve struggled to defend recently. Not sure he’s best 22. But Fogarty and Marchbank might be. Still, they got peak Weitering, Walsh and Cripps, Curnow found 2 goals on May, it rained, and they kicked straight all night. It’s a super effort to be as close as we were despite all that, but equally a reminder that they play so well against us.

6 - Petracca 5 - ANB 4 - Langdon 3 - May 2 - Rivers 1 - Windsor

Not sure Turner is the answer but not sure we have any better options available. Ditto Billings. Probably no change at this stage.

Carlton are a top 4 side, match up brilliantly against us, and love playing us. And we suck in wet weather. We started awfully. Being down 36-0 makes beating anyone hard, let alone a top 4 side. It was incredible to see us stem the tide and end up feeling like we could have won, so that is a clear positive. Ultimately their cleanliness in front of goal early and our four awful misses (Petty, Fritsch, Pickett, Chandler) cost us the win. The fact it came to that despite Walsh, Cripps and Weitering playing stellar football is remarkable. Don’t give me “the umpiring cost us” though. [censored] me. We were gifted a goal from the non-mark call late in the third and there were a stack of calls that either went in our favour or were missed. Yes, the JVR tackle was a pathetic free, but we lost this game ourselves. We have a midfield problem though. All three losses are hallmarked by opposition mids dominating. I liked the different looks in there tonight with ANB but we are not capable of winning it this year if we keep having games where we’re beaten this badly in the middle.

Woke up this morning feeling very nervous. Can’t shake the feeling of last year’s two losses to them and my overall view that they are a much better side than their 4-3 record suggests. Was surprised to come on here and see many in this thread sharing my view. I suppose it’s a byproduct of last year but I think also comes from us being favourites after winning last week. There’s a bit more pressure tonight and I’m feeling it. Can’t have a night like Sydney or Brisbane where we are belted in the middle - we won’t win if that happens. We also probably can’t afford to concede territory too much tonight either. But if we get enough ball in our forward half, I’m confident enough that we can hold them to a score we can beat.

This is a good table IMO. Sydney at 26 players used, and 18 playing every game, is insane.

Far too much downplaying Carlton's ins for my liking. McGovern and Kemp in the backline is an upgrade on Young and Williams. Martin's an upgrade on Fantasia, even if he's underdone (Fantasia may as well have been unfit given how little impact he's been having). And Hollands is probably an upgrade on Cuningham. They are IMO a very good side, a legitimate flag contender despite their recent form slump. They are more than capable of beating us if they bring what they're capable of in the middle, and particularly now that they're stronger behind the ball with McGovern and Kemp.

I think @Dee Boys might have it - I totally read the "they" as being Petty's camp but if it was Adelaide instead, they both make sense.

As @WheeloRatings says, you can use it to understand whether or not your misses were shots you should have taken or were just tough shots. That gives it value. It then gets mis- and over-used such as is the case by Fox in the discussed article.