titan_uranus

Last year Collingwood lost to Hawthorn the week after Hawthorn had lost to St Kilda. Earlier this year Sydney lost to Richmond, who have just lost by 100 in back to back weeks.

Probably only two things for sure. Lever misses due to concussion. At least one of Brown and Petty is dropped/moved out of the forward line (they combined for 1.2 from 8 disposals and 3 marks. That's not good enough for one of them on their own, let alone both of them). Presumably JVR replaces the dropped/moved key forward. Tomlinson or Petty for Lever you'd think.

Of all the issues being discussed on this thread (selection, fitness, key forwards), this is the one that deserves the most attention.

What are you on about? What "runs on the board" does Simpson have over Goodwin? Both have the same number of flags. A quick Google and calculation (which therefore may be wrong) tells me that Goodwin has a 59% win rate to Simpson's 50% in their coaching careers, too. Simpson also oversaw two of the most disastrous years of football any side has produced in living memory, up there with our years in the Neeld era. Why the [censored] didn't you expect any better? For the last four years we haven't lost games to bad sides, nor have we lost games by 30+ points. This shouldn't be happening, and you're posting like it should?

Tonight is: The first time we've lost by more than 30 points since Round 11, 2022 vs Fremantle (i.e. a week short of two years ago) The highest score we've conceded since Round 19, 2022 vs the Dogs Our 8th straight week scoring under 100 points - our longest stretch since, funnily enough, Rounds 8-19 in 2021. Likely to be our first loss to a side who will finish the season in the bottom 4 since Round 9, 2021 vs Adelaide

I think I said most/all of this in my post. The point I am making in addition to this is that West Coast aren't as bad as many on here seem to think. If you think they are the 2022-23 West Coast you aren't watching 2024 football. As I said in my post, they are still a bottom 4 side, mid-table at best, but bottom 4 sides beat good sides most years (Hawthorn beat Collingwood and Brisbane last year). But as you say, it's how we lost - 25 scoring shots and 105 points conceded, beaten in the middle again, and key forwards who can't impact the game.

I don't know how much longer we need to lose games with the bottom 6-8 players being ineffectual for this to sink in on Demonland. Our list isn't good enough to withstand our A-graders being down.

Well, the good news is I wasn't able to watch and so had planned to set aside 2 hours tonight to watch it on delay - but having followed along online, I've been able to save myself 2 hours. Having seen none of it it's hard for me to comment but I only need to see that we conceded 105 points and 25 scoring shots to know it was bad. I see we were again beaten in CPs and clearances, and again our key forwards barely troubled the statisticians, let alone the scorers. There are some classic Demonland reactions though. Yes, West Coast barely won a game in 2022-23. But if you think that has any reflection what they're doing in 2024, you're not following football. They are miles better this year, and already had been prior to this game. They are a difficult proposition at home. But if we can't stop West Coast, a mid-table side at best (and still probably a bottom 4 side) from scoring 105 points whilst holding us to only 70, something isn't right.

It’s always been both. Luck has a say in most, if not all, close games, whether it’s the bounce of our unpredictable ball or whether the umpire pays/doesn’t pay a free that is/isn’t there. Not everything is in Collingwood’s control and therefore they must rely on luck. Their system for closing down games when they hold the lead late is perfection though, as is their ability to feed off the almost-always pro-Collingwood crowd to claw back deficits.

On 28 April David King said the flag race was down to three: Geelong, GWS, Carlton. That was at the end of Round 7. Since then those sides are a combined 1-8, with the sole win being Carlton over us by 1 point. This is your regular reminder that David King is, contrary to what SEN calls him, not “the best analyst in football”.

300% better? He’s averaging 16.7 disposals (up 3 on last year with us), 3.7 marks (up 1), 4.2 tackles (up 2), and 4.9 score involvements (up 1). But from 25% more TOG than he was getting last year. He’s playing better, but not by anywhere near that much. And if he and we had known Gus wasn’t going to be play this year, he may well still be here.

I know the Darwin venue and the shorter breaks will have impacted, but I think (hope?) this might be an insight into the potential cliff that actually is coming for Geelong. Their missing players were Dangerfield, Hawkins, Duncan, Stanley, Cameron and De Koning. The first five are over 30, and there has to be a strong argument that the first four won’t play beyond this season. Without them, they were 11 goals behind a mid-table side (who themselves had a couple of outs). They’ll no doubt be throwing cash to whichever midfielder is available this year because their midfield is no good.

So could be McAdam, Brown and Salem for JVR, Turner and Langdon. For them, McGovern stays in despite sore ribs and Waterman is back. Take them lightly at your own peril.

@Jaded No More I think perhaps this is a different point. It's one thing to not have Brayshaw anymore, it's another to not have a replacement for him on the list. We're not on our own there though - Collingwood's in the same boat with Murphy and the Dogs today lost O'Driscoll. But for us we also have Smith inactive on the list too, without a replacement. So as @Farmer says, we're two down in terms of players available for selection before you even start with the injury list, which is now up to 7, most of whom are forwards (JVR, Turner, Melksham, Spargo - Smith being a 5th forward).

Assuming Round 24 is a Friday night game (or any night), we'll end up having 14 out of our 23 H&A games at night. Same as 2022, up from 10 last year. Far cry from the 3 we had in 2016!

Even allowing for the Round 24 game, only 2 of those 9 games are our home game (Brisbane in Round 5 the other one). Somewhat disappointing for the bean counters.

It's great that we're on FTA so much. Unfortunately 6 of our 7 Wed/Thur/Fri night games are away games (Brisbane in Round 5 the exception). But we still have the chance to draw big crowds to the Essendon and Port Saturday night games. We've got to be a decent chance of getting the Round 24 Friday night game, too (Brisbane v Essendon the danger).

Jon Ralph’s article says clubs can have 3 per season, which I thought only came into effect from next year.

Jon Ralph reporting that our game at the Gabba in Round 16 will be the Friday night of that round. Guess we’ll find out tomorrow when the fixture is finally released.

Haven't heard it but I suspect what he's saying is not that Trac isn't capable of playing that well, but that he won't play near-permanent forward each week, so that's why he won't "play like that".

Essendon nearly lost to them last week. They're the media's current darlings. Sydney was behind them for half the game in Gather Round. They're the undisputed number 1 seed right now. If Yeo and/or Waterman play, they are a much stronger side. I don't accept that if we don't "win this easily" we "have some way bigger issues".

Tom Morris on radio this morning said Turner may have a calf issue. Going to be interesting if he and JVR are both out at once.

How we replace JVR will be interesting. Do we go with a tall (options seem to be Brown, Fullarton, Schache...?) or do we go with someone smaller (Tholstrup, Laurie)? Either way, you'd expect Turner/Petty will be doing all of the second ruck work.

The Bulldogs are 11th but have outscored their opponents by 25% more than Essendon, who are 3rd.

Did you mean Essendon? Because Sydney is far and away the competition's number 1 seed right now, mainly because they have the league's best record against good sides. They've beaten the sides currently sitting 3rd, 4th, 5th and 8th, plus 9th and 10th. No other top 8 side has that many wins against fellow contenders, nor are any of them undefeated against fellow contenders.