titan_uranus

Despite how bad Port have been of late, that game does have hallmarks of a Port win. That would then leave GC to have to beat Essendon in the final game of the year to make their first ever finals series, and knock out the loser of WB-Fremantle. The pressure on them to not choke would be so, so high...

We just have to beat them by 300 points or something for that to happen. Fremantle losing to Brisbane pretty much locked Collingwood (and Hawthorn now) into finals, given Fremantle's much lower percentage. We can hold them out of top 4, though. And for a side which was 10 points clear on top of the ladder after 16 games, that'll be some achievement.

We're not about to pick Laurie, Woewodin, Brown or Billings after ignoring them all year. What would we gain by giving them this one game anyway?

The gap between our best and our worst is bigger than the Grand Canyon. Maybe this was always going to be a down week after the emotion of the last fortnight but we still play incredibly poor football when we're off. Let's hope we can fire ourselves up one more time to try to get some positivity into the group before what will be the most important off- and pre-season we've had in a long time.

Hawthorn, GC and GWS all still have to win at least one more game (Dogs have to beat WC too). So if we beat Hawthorn, they are still at massive risk of missing. But if they beat us, then Freo either have to beat the Dogs or hope that St Kilda beats GWS or GC somehow loses to Essendon or Port.

What a waste of space Caro’s article today is. Reheating the “Goodwin clips Casey” comment from the presser that was 11 days ago. Again saying the coaching job isn’t enticing (oh, Leigh Matthews agrees? That renowned lover of the MFC?). She makes valid points about the club being dysfunctional, but she’s repeating herself. It’s all been said. Move the [censored] on.

They were 12-7 last year, then lost their last 4 games to miss finals. If they then back that up by missing again this year, that is a level of mediocrity/failure that would have Demonlanders rioting with pitchforks if it were us. This is a club with a stacked list (Serong, Brayshaw, Jackson, Young and Bolton in the middle, Treacy, Voss and Amiss up forward with Frederick and Switkowski (edit: and Reid!), and a very well drilled backline with Pearce, Cox, Ryan, Chapman and Clark). Plus they had an extra home game with North selling one to Perth. If they lose to the Dogs next week, and if GWS, GC and Hawthorn all win once, they’re out. They should be ensconced in the top 4, not battling for finals. Longmuir should absolutely be in danger if they miss.

If it was us in their shoes I have no doubt at all you’d be saying “we’ve fallen over the line against 4 of the bottom 5 by a combined 21 points, these are junk time wins, doing us nothing for 2026, ruining our draft hand”.

HAWTHORN V MELBOURNEMCG, 4.15pm •Hawthorn’s form has returned at the right time of year, looking up and about and energised in its last two games. Despite the absence of Will Day and Josh Weddle, they look to be imposing a game style that could challenge other contenders. Hawthorn’s pressure game has been competition best across the season and when they can speed up off turnovers they look at their best. •Melbourne brought energy and workrate to their strong performance against the Dogs last week. In the game all the way until the end, they were able to match their midfield and bounce off halfback consistently to provide supply to their front six. With two more big games to come against Hawthorn and Collingwood, it gives the players a focus to test themselves and shape the finals in 2025 while taking some key lessons into next year. Since Round 19, Hawthorn has conceded more points from intercept possessions than any side – over 30 per game. The Demons’ ability to transition quickly, especially off kick-ins where they’re ranked No.1 for scoring, could expose that vulnerability if the Hawks’ forward pressure drops for even a moment. •Jake Melksham’s seven goals from beyond 50 metres this season – more than any player in the AFL – is a threat Hawthorn must plan for, especially given its 21.5% one-on-one loss rate in defence. Conversely, when Nick Watson kicks multiple goals, Hawthorn is 8-2 – making his influence a strong barometer of its winning chances.

DEES TO REWARD PRE-SEASON PICKUPMELBOURNE is rewarding Jai Culley with a new contract after an eye-catching fortnight from the former West Coast midfielder. The 22-year-old earned a lifeline at the Demons after the AFL briefly reopened the pre-season supplemental selection period in February, following knee injuries to Andy Moniz-Wakefield and Carlton's Jagga Smith. Now Melbourne is extending the Langwarrin product with a contract for 2026. Culley played 12 games across three seasons at the Eagles after being selected with pick No.1 in the 2022 mid-season rookie draft. After being delisted at the end of 2024, Culley joined Casey at the start of the pre-season when Melbourne didn't have a list spot available. The Demons then signed Werribee premiership player Jack Henderson after Shane McAdam ruptured his Achilles, but were blown away by how Culley handled that news from former coach Simon Goodwin. Culley got his first shot for Melbourne against his old side West Coast in round 21, where he kicked two goals from a wing and showed he can perform at the level, before finishing with 16 touches, 11 contested possessions and five clearances against the Western Bulldogs on Sunday. – Josh Gabelich https://www.afl.com.au/news/1388149/race-heats-up-for-in-demand-blue-record-in-sight-for-veteran-lion-luckless-saints-new-deal

If this is referring to me, you’re helping me out. We’ve quietly enough put 85 on GC, 90 on St Kilda (who love to stifle their opponent) and 99 on the Dogs (bad defence but a much better side than us overall). Plus everyone gets to play the bad sides (and whilst we got North twice, we got smacked by them the first time). My point really is that I doubt many on here would think of our 2025 as being high scoring to the point of being 10th overall.

So we're now 0-5 in games decided by less than 10 points this year (losses to GWS, Collingwood, Carlton, St Kilda and the Dogs). We're now on an 0-7 streak in such games, 3-8 overall since the start of last year, and 3-11 since the Marchbank disaster.

What? On expected score we should have lost by 12 points. It's right there in the stats file thread. You could have done 1 minute of work before exposing yourself as an [censored].

Here's one. We know there's a top 9 and a bottom 9 this year. The top 9 scoring sides this year are, funnily enough, the top 9 on the ladder. Guess who's 10th? You guessed it - us. Would you instinctively believe we're the 10th highest scoring side in 2025?

Yeah probably. He was devastated when he dropped that mark down the City End which led to a goal out the back. He did it a few other times too. The exciting point is that he gets to these contests in the first place.

This is my view. Adams was just ok. Got his taste but not good enough to keep May out.

First time seeing him live yesterday. He seems to read the play well, almost floats across the ground, and we know has strength and great hands. I find him a really exciting prospect. Could make a real impact as a marking winger. Needs to learn when to spoil in D50 rather than trying to mark everything though.

Against Gold Coast a few weeks back, we shifted Viney out of centre bounce. We got smashed at clearance in the first quarter and immediately abandoned that plan. Yesterday we kept Trac forward despite being smashed at stoppage early. I like that we didn’t cave. We kept at it, which helped Windsor, and IMO Trac got better as the day went on.

6 - Gawn 5 - Rivers 4 - Petty 3 - TMac 2 - Fritsch 1 - Petracca (10 score involvements and marked improvement by hand in the second half)

We were pretty damn good today but got beat by a side that is so stacked for elite talent it’s not funny. Bont, Darcy, Richards and Dale might be 4 of the 10 best players in the comp. The first 3 might be in the best 5 players in the comp. By contrast, other than Gawn, we didn’t have too many stand out performers. We kept in the game through system and work ethic, and that’s what I loved about today. Windsor in the middle looked good. Rivers and McVee got up the ground more and looked good. Culley on a wing looks good. Langford did some ridiculously good things in the forward 50. Trac started slow but IMO his second half was much, much better. Turner did a lot right, although his turnovers really killed us. Would love to see us bring this system and intensity these next two weeks.

It's pretty unlikely. Still requires Hawthorn to beat Brisbane in the final game or otherwise make up the 3% gap to Collingwood despite losing to Brisbane, and requires GWS to beat Gold Coast on the Gold Coast (along with their other two games) or otherwise make up a 13% gap. I'd much rather us beat Hawthorn next week and ruin their season. Collingwood's is looking increasingly shot already.

I disagree with almost every part of this post. I will concede I haven't got the data and so can't say whether Spargo is indeed "far and away our best kick inside 50". So let's assume he is. IMO, that's useless because Spargo's unable to run or spread to AFL standard, which means he can't get separation or into space, so he can't get the ball enough, and so he can't make use of that skill. He also has no other strings to his bow - he isn't a long kick, he doesn't kick goals, he doesn't apply strong forward pressure (or at least no better than the other players vying for his spot in the 23 already on our list), he's slow, he's short, and he can't/doesn't play midfield. IMO Spargo is the quintessential example of our poor list management. We take and hold too many players who we laud for having a known or potential elite AFL trait, but who can't impact games because they lack too much in other areas. So for mine, it's not Spargo's decision, it's ours, and the decision should be to let him go.

Remember what the Tribunal said about May: "We find that at the moment May changed direction and ran towards the ball, a reasonable player would have realised that it was highly likely that Evans would reach the ball before May did... May could and should have realised before the last bounce that he remained unlikely to get to the ball first... Both players had a clear and unimpeded view of the ball and of each other... May made no attempt to change his path, his body position or his velocity at any time leading up to or in the contest. As a result, the effect was that he ran through Evans at high speed. A reasonable player would not have done so. May did not have a lot of time to do so, but he had sufficient time to avoid or minimise a high speed collision with a player who was gathering the ball... It's important to note in this regard that May had a relatively long period of time to sum up the key features of the contest. This was not a situation where May had a split second in which to assess what might happen in the contest and to consider what he might do if the ball did not bounce in an entirely favourable way or him. May ran at a sufficient distance and had sufficient time with an unimpeded view of what was before him to determine what he could and should do in the likely event that he did not reach the ball either first or at the same time". Almost all of the above apply, IMO, to Newcombe on Howe. One key difference is that the ball was to Newcombe's left but Howe was on the right (not both in front like May), but Newcombe has time to turn and look at Howe coming the other way, and then elects to run through him to try to tackle. If the game today required May to assess that situation and attempt to minimise contact, IMO it required Newcombe to attempt to minimise contact, which he did not do. I haven't heard David King's argument on it but if he has gone with "no weeks, football accident", that simply confirms that he's a [censored] moron, the complete opposite of the "best analyst in football". He's a hypocritical, finger to the wind, opinion-flipping, non-sensical moron. Where's the whole "these players are capable of split second decisions, they can react to these things, I'm the only commentator in the industry who cares about concussion, stop thinking about May and think about Evans instead" now? And Jon Ralph would love his time again when he went with "the good news is it's only concussion". I suppose, being nice, he was trying to say there was no additional neck/bone damage, but seriously, do better you [censored].

Always enjoyable seeing Collingwood fall apart. But we now have a newfound purpose to our remaining games. We must beat Hawthorn next week. Everyone will declare they are into the finals now, because they will assume a win against us next week. They’ll hopefully have been so focused on tonight that maybe they’ll have their foot off the pedal next week. If we only win one more game this year, please let it be next week.

10 minutes since teams dropped and no one’s posted? Sign of the times huh. In: Jefferson, Adams, Campbell All on the extended bench with McVee, Windsor,Oliver, Petty and Sharp